World Meteorological Organization TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS/TCWCS TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING Ninth Session Honolulu, Hawaii, USA,9 to 12 December 2018 TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3 Submitted by: Port Moresby TCWC 27.X1.2018 AGENDA ITEM 2: FOLLOW-UP ACTIONS ON THE TCM-8 AGENDA ITEM 2.1: OPERATIONAL FORECASTS/ADVISORIES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS - REQUIREMENTS AGENDA ITEM 2.1.1: RECENT AND CURRENT ACTIVITIES OF THE RSMCS AND TCWCS AGENDA ITEM 2.1.1/3 RECENT AND CURRENT ACTIVITIES OF PORT MORESBY 1. Introduction The 2015/16, 2016/17 and 2017/18 seasons were very quiet and no tropical cyclone formed or crossed into Papua New Guinea, however, three (3) flooding events were observed. Out of the three (3) events, only one was associated with tropical cyclone Nora and indirectly affected the Jiwaka Province on March 24 th, 2018. Port Moresby TCWC continues to face challenges. This year 2018, the operational budget for National Weather Service was the lowest. The recruitment exercise has been put on hold by the Government and after a long operation of the EMWIN system; it has finally collapsed and has become unserviceable. Next generation of EMWIN and RANET is required as it provided some very useful information. National Disaster Centre (NDC) and Hydrology unit under the Conservation and Environment Protection Authority (CEPA) moved their operations into the New Multi-Hazard Early Warning Centre located within the PNG National Weather Service to monitor and coordinate during the flooding and earthquake events during the 2017/2018 tropical cyclone season. Forecasters were able to work closely with the CEPA s hydrology unit monitoring the floods and disaster unit for the first time were able to observe live monitoring of the hazards that were taking place. Despite the challenges, number of installation took place. Six (6) AWS s were installed through UNDP adaptation and RESPAC funding. Through UNESCO, BMKG installed a satellite based drought monitoring system and the organisations website has continues to undergo upgrades with Aviation, Marine, Public and Severe Weather products can now be accessed through the website. 2. Coordination/operational activities Close coordination between PNGNWS, NDC and Hydrology Units is required to continue to improve the effectiveness of the National Multi Hazard Early Warning Centre (NMHEWC). The Hydrology section under Conservation and Environment Protection Authority (CEPA) and the National Disaster Centre (NDC) were alerted of the situation of the possible flooding events and landslips during and after the earthquake.
TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 2 Port Moresby TCWC continues close dialogues with Brisbane TCWC and Darwin RSMC. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology continues to provide Access-R Model support and tropical cyclone forecast track maps. Forecasting and Alert Systems SMARTMET and SMARTALERT are State of Art Forecasting and Warning Systems donated by Finland Meteorological Institute, Government of Finland became operational in November 2014 and 2016 respectively. The systems already has infrastructure for CAPs and the ICT section has integrated its output forecast and warning products which are available on the PNG National Weather Service website: www.pngmet.gov.pg. The system ingests 25km GFS output, however, we have been having dialogues with BOM and RIMES to have the 12km Access-R and 9km WRF ingested into the system. Southeast Asia and Oceania Flash Flood Guidance System (SAOFFGS) PNG National Weather Service is Part of the SAOFFGS and our two hydro-meteorologists were trained this year at the Santiago Hydrological Research Centre (HRC) and help tailor products for Papua New Guinea. We have ingested 9km WRF for PNG into the system. Flood Monitoring and Warning System PNG National Weather Service with assistance from RIMES and NIWA has identified flood prone areas and is in the process of developing the Riverine Flood Monitoring and Guidance System. Under the UNDP Adaptation Funds, NIWA has installed the 1 st Riverine Flood Monitoring System in the Bumbu River and is operational now. There are plans to integrate it to the RIMES Flood Warning System. Satellite Systems A new, WMO Himari-8 Satellite Receiving system for managing and viewing satellite imagery data was installed in February 2016 and operating well. JMA has just upgraded its SATAID software and the Forecasters and Tropical Cyclone Forecasters are using it operationally. Observation Systems Port Moresby GUAN stations require restoration and lack of funding for consumables continues to hamper its operations. Under the Adaptation funding administered by UNDP, five (5) AWSs and one Flood Monitoring system have been installed by NIWA and under the RESPAC funding two more were installed this year, 2018. 3. Products Since 2015, PNG National Weather Service with its partners and stakeholders, mostly key technical agencies have been working in collaboration. PNG National Weather Service has developed a dynamic Website where all its products are available. Products available and communicated are; Tropical Cyclone Warnings,
TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 3 Strong Wind Warnings, Gale and Storm wind Warnings, Coastal and Ocean Waters Warnings, High Seas Warnings, SIGMET for Tropical Cyclones 4. Training activities Importantly, PNG National Weather Service is primarily focused on operational forecasting, and the research and development work undertaken is focused in the area of improving tools, knowledge and skills of forecasters, and the quality and efficiency of the output. In 2016-2018 PNGNWS participated in the number of training and these include; Pacific Desk, Hawaii, USA, FINPAC Training in Samoa and Fiji, Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Workshop, Melbourne Australia, Hydro-met Training in Santiago Research Centre, US, Asia/ Oceania Satellite Users Conference, Tokyo, Japan, Young Scientist Training, APEC Research Centre, Korea, Asia/ Oceania Satellite Users Conference, Jakarta, Indonesia, ICT and AWS Technical Training, NIWA, New Zealand, Training Requirements 1. Training of Operational Forecasters, research meteorologist in the area of Tropical Cyclone & Storm Surge Forecasting; 2. Training in the use of Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Tracking TC Module Software to improve the quality and efficiency of its Tropical Cyclone warning system and products. Port Moresby TCWC does not have specialized Tropical Cyclone Tracking Software (TC Module, Synergy, etc.); 3. Access and Training in use of EC EPSgrams, Ensemble and Deterministic/ Probability Forecasts; 4. Case Studies, Evaluation of Past Tropical Cyclones; 5. Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Summary On the average Papua New Guinea receives one (1) Tropical Cyclone a year, however the number varies seasonally. Some seasons has seen two (2) or three cyclones formed whilst others have literally none. Many of these Tropical Cyclones have formed in February during the peaking of NW monsoon (NW Trades) over Papua New Guinea (refer figures 9 & 10 in the annex).
TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 4 In 2014/2015 season Tropical Cyclone Nathan formed in the Coral Sea on 21 March 2015 and reached category 3. A favorable upper pattern resulted in the rapid development of a low embedded in the monsoon trough. The combined but indirect effect from other systems, TC Pam east of Nathan, Typhoon Bavi across the equator near Guam and Olywn in the eastern Indian Ocean enhanced northwest monsoon surges across Papua New Guinea. The Port Moresby TCWC issued storm wind warnings for Central, Milne Bay and West New Britain. There was substantial damage of Oil Palms costing several millions of dollars in the West New Britain Province. These combined systems also enhanced the El Nino conditions to be established across the Pacific. In 2015/16, 2016/17 and 2017/18 seasons, there were no tropical cyclone activity in Port Moresby s area of responsibility, however, several Gale warning were issued during the peak of the SE Trade season (June August). 6. Accomplishments During the period 2014-2016, number of installations took place; the Himawari 8/9 Satellite Receiving system became operation in February 2016 and under the Recurrent Budget Funding, Internet link was upgraded to 2mbps. In accordance with the Declaration of the 2 nd RIMES Ministerial Conference on the 10 th of July 2015, New Delhi, to pursue Papua New Guinea s proposal on decentralization of RIMES program implementation through sub-regional mechanisms, Papua New Guinea, through its National Executive Council, approved on 6 August 2015 the country s hosting of the RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for the Pacific Region, and committed about USD 350,000 for establishing a facility to function as the National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Centre and RIMES Sub Regional Hub. Port Moresby TCWC will be integrated into this setup. Last year on the 25 th of August, 2017, the National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Centre and RIMES Sub Regional Hub was inaugurated. With the support from the regional partners, WMO, BOM, JMA, NIWA, SPREP, RIMES, BMKG, PNG National Weather continues to improve its infrastructure and capacity. In 2017, under the UNDP Adaptation Funding, Multi Hazard Assessments was done for 5 pilot provinces Multi-Hazard Assessments - Five Pilot Provinces The five pilot provinces were selected based on a number of criteria, including number of disasters reported in the past as well as overall vulnerability to natural hazards and risks. The National Disaster Centre (NDC) reports that most of the pilot provinces experience high to very high levels of threat of common natural hazards. An analysis of disaster events between 2004 and 2015 revealed that PNG provinces experience an average of about six disaster events with relatively high incidence in the pilot provinces: approximately 11 each for Central and Madang, 10 for Western Highlands Province (WHP) and 9 for Autonomous Region of Bougainville (ARoB). Only Chimbu province, with 6 disaster events, falls within the average range. The same analysis also reveals the most common hazards affecting the provinces with an estimated 52 flood events, 27 droughts, 18 incidents of landslides, and 15 volcanic eruptions compared with only 11 reported events of sea level rise, 5 incidents of king tides, 4 earthquake and cyclone/strong wind events and one recorded event each for frost and hail during the last decade.
Volcanic Eruption Earthquake Landslide Tsunami Flood Rising Sea Level Storm Surge Cyclone Drought Frost TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 5 Province Central NE M M L VH VH H VH VH M WHP NE M VH NE H NE NE L VH VH Chimbu NE M VH NE H NE NE L VH VH Madang VH VH H VH VH VH VH L M L ARoB VH VH M VH M VH VH VH H L Table 1: NDC Report on Level of Threat of Natural Hazards in Pilot Provinces The table 2 below shows the priority hazards identified by stakeholders for each of the pilot provinces. Both PNG and RIMES team used this list as the basis in their hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment work. Central Western Highlands Chimbu Bougainville Madang* Earthquake 8 20 20 Landslide 16 25 8 20 Tsunami 12 12 Volcanic Eruption 16 25 Flood 25 20 12 16 25 Drought 20 15 15 6 16 Tropical Cyclone 15 5 Strong Winds 12 King Tide 12 Sea Level Rise 20 25 Frost 10 15 12
TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 6 Central Western Highlands Chimbu Bougainville Madang* Thunderstorm 25 9 Table 2: Priority hazards The red highlight indicates high priority hazards, while yellow is for medium priority. The bigger the number inside the cell, the more relevance/priority stakeholders placed on the particular hazard. Tropical Cyclone Hazard Mapping The coastal areas of Central Province are typically considered as among the areas exposed to tropical cyclones. But strong tropical cyclones are less frequent in PNG. A World bank discussion paper, for instance, suggests that tropical cyclones of category 1 or higher on Saffir Simpson scale (i.e., 119-153 kph or higher) is likely to happen on average once every 100 years. Much of the damage from tropical cyclones are due to winds and storm surge hazards that come with the event. Figure 1 shows the tropical cyclone hazard map for 100-year return period while Figures 1 and 2 show the storm surge hazard map and the storm surge hazard overlaid on exposed elements. Figure 1 shows that the central and southern areas of the province are subject to comparatively higher wind speed (up to 117 kph), equivalent to Category 2 tropical cyclone of Australia s Bureau of Meteorology. Figures 2 and 3 show that storm surge height for 100-year return period cyclones range between 4 m to a few centimetres above 5 m. Noting such height, the following hazard zones and exposed elements have been identified.
TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 7 Figure 1: Cyclone hazard map of Central Province Figure 2: Storm surge hazard map of Central Province
TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 8 Figure 3: Storm surge risk map of Central Province The table 3 shows a number of residents within the 200-meter range from the coast and are therefore at risk of storm surge and/or coastal flooding. Detailed storm surge modelling could be done along the coast to establish high risk versus safe areas. Return Period Hazard Zone (m) Exposed/Vulnerable Populations and Facilities Households Population Buildings Health Centre Schools Road (m) < 50 19 101 35 369.05 50-100 55 351 35 335.24 100 100-150 73 700 62 1 432.46 150-200 77 520 47 1 1 1,251.41 Total 224 1,672 179 1 2 2,388.16 Table 3: Storm surge exposure data for Central Province Strong Winds Global annual maximum wind speed data were used to develop the strong wind hazard map for Central Province as shown in figure 4 and 5.
TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 9 Figure 4: Strong winds hazard map of Central Province The figures 4 and 5 show that wind speeds in Central Province reach up to 17 m/s (or 61.2 kph), which is categorized as Near Gale. On land, such wind speed makes whole trees move, and inconveniences those walking against the wind. On water, the sea heaps up and white foam from breaking waves are blown in streaks along the wind direction. Sea Level Rise Analysis of sea level rise hazard was conducted using global data on sea surface anomaly for the last 30 years (i.e., 1980-2009). In general, the sea surface anomaly of 1 1.25 m in Central province is comparatively less than other island provinces in PNG including Bougainville with at least 2 m height anomaly. Figure 6 shows the sea level rise hazard map for Central Province where three buffer zones 0-2 km, 2-3 km and 3-5km are established. Figure 7 shows the hazard overlaid on elements, while Table 4 outlines the exposed populations and facilities in each zone.
TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 10 Figure 5: Strong winds risk map of Central Province Buffer (km) Zone Exposed/Vulnerable Populations and Facilities Household s Population Buildings Health Centre Schools Road (m) 0-2 2-3 13,865 789 102,424 5,701 12,667 1,867 29 10 68 10 182,277.01 91,993.21 3-5 3,161 19,298 3,092 110,349.3 Total 17,815 127,423 17,626 39 78 384,619.52 Table 4: Sea level rise exposure data for Central Province
TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 11 Figure 6: Sea level rise hazard map of Central Province The figures 6 and 7 highlight coastal areas at risk of sea level rise. Additionally, the table shows a number of settlements in the coastal areas of the province and particularly within the 2km buffer zone. But like storm surge, more detailed modelling of sea level rise may need to be conducted to account for local topography among other parameters, and identify high risk versus safe zones. Vulnerability Analysis of vulnerability for the Local Level Governments (LLGs) in Central were based on the 2011 census as well as facilities data. Variables considered in the analysis include population density, dependency ratios (i.e., aged 0-14 and aged 65 and older), female-headed households, literacy rate, distance to roads and health centres. Figure 8 shows the relative vulnerability levels among LLGs in Central. The LLGs have varying levels of vulnerability. Cloudy Bay and Koiari Rural have relatively lower levels of vulnerability. Majority of the provinces have moderate levels of vulnerability, and at least three Tapini, Woitape and Amazon Bay Rural are highly vulnerable. Such high vulnerability could be due to their villages distance to relevant facilities like roads and health centres.
TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 12 Figure 7: Sea level rise risk map of Central Province Figure 8: Social vulnerability map of Central Annexes
Frequency of Tropical Cyclones TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 13 Monthly Variation of Tropical Cyclones - 1992/93-2017/18 3 2.5 Monthly Total Monthly Average 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Months Figure 9: Status of the current Communications and Data Centre Projects
Number of Tropical Cyclones Seasonal Variation of Tropical Cyclones - 1992/93-2017/18 3.00 2.50 Seasonal Total Seasonal Average 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Season Figure 10: Status of the current Communications and Data Centre Projects
TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 15 Maximum Wind Speeds Tropical Hazard Risk Map
Tropical Cyclone Tracks 1897-2016 TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 16
Storm Surge Risk Map TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 17
TCM-9/DOC.2.1.1/3, p. 18