24 8 Vol124 No18 2009 8 JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES Aug., 2009 1, 2, 13 (11, 100101; 21, 100049) : 1997 2006 10,,,, 2006 GDP 527111 1 195120 5 745182, 3,,,,, 4 : : ; ; ; : F42612 : A: 1000-3037 (2009) 08-1412 - 10 1, 2070,,,, [ 1 ],, (WMO),2174 10 9 MW,2 10 7 MW, 101% [ 2 ] 2005, 66, 5193 10 7 kw, 10 2816% [ 3 ],,32 10 8 kw, 2153 10 8 kw, [ 4 ] 10 40%,, 2006, 91, 16 ( ), 3 311, 260 10 4 kw, 7 422 10 4 kw 3176%,,,,,, : 2008-08- 29; : 2009-03- 24 : (973)(2007CB210306) : (1981- ),,,, 3 : (1966- ),,,,,E2mail: fangcl@ igsnrr. ac. cn
8 : 1413,, [ 5 7 ] [ 8, 9 ] [ 10, 11 ] [ 12, 13 ],,, ;( ),,, 2 211 [ 6 ] (1991 ), 900,10 m,32126 10 8 kw ; 2153 10 8 kw,, (3178 10 8 kw ), 2030,, [ 14 ],10 m : 6 m / s, 7 m / s, 8 m / s 6 m / s,,,,,,,,, [ 14 ],1 [ 7 ], 2007 10, 107, 3 477, 3021331 10 4 kw, 17( ),, 23141%, ( ) ; 2007 65,1 510, 751155 10 4 kw, 21 ( ) ; 2010 155, 3 585, 4 035198 10 4 kw, 25( ) 2010 29 ( ) 327, 8 500, 5 000 10 4 kw [ 15 ] 1 212,,,,,,1997 2006 10 ( )( GDP),, ( ) (, ) 1997 2006 GDP, : y = A + ax 1 + bx 2 + cx 3 + dx 4 (1)
1414 24 1 Fig11 The distribution of wind power resources and wind power p lants in China : y GDP; x 1 ; x 2 ; x 3 ; x 4 10,, xy,, x n ( n = 1 2 3 4) y n ( n = 1 2 3 4), GDP, 1 h, 1 h ( 1),, 1 Table 1 The reference coefficient of raw coal, crude oil and power converted to standard coal equivalent 1 t 11400 0 t 01700 0 t 01305 8 10 4 kw h : http: www. ydjjxx. gov. cn /more1. asp? id = 11734, 1 h,, GDP,,
8 : 1415 213, 81273 4 10 8 t 111582 5 10 8 t 51791 3 10 8 t 21530 0 10 8 kw h2 2 2 Table 2 The estimated value generated by wind power resources per hour GDP GDP GDP /10 8 /10 8 /10 8 y = 4 2501539-11966x 1-11147x 2 + 4591505x 3 + 391040x 4 122115 10 4 71126 10 4 2 425156 10 4 y = - 1 6291844 + 01687x 1 + 01633x 2-1271789x 3 + 121705x 4 87161 10 4 80173 10 4 1 620127 10 4 ( ) y = - 1 8661682 + 941533x 1-11783x 2-721075x 3 + 231353x 4 7 418195 10 4 139193 10 4 1 832174 10 4 y = - 3 2551986 + 21244x 1-01107x 2 + 31765x 4 117141 10 4 117141 10 4 196198 10 4 y = - 1531755 + 01544x 1-01002x 2 + 2941466x 3-101032x 4 65182 10 4 0124 10 4 1 213177 10 4 ( y = - 2 8361841 + 01416x 1 + 11389x 2-161621x 3 + 101977x 4 ) 82198 10 4 277106 10 4 2 189158 10 4 y = - 1 8971477 + 01601x 1 + 01863x 2-11873x 3 + 71798x 4 119188 10 4 172114 10 4 1 555147 10 4 ( y = 1991500-01159x 1 + 161296x 2 + 431533x 3 + 11351x 4 ) 22188 10 4 2 344166 10 4 194138 10 4 y = - 6311448-01516x 1 + 01226x 2-1031156x 3 + 421503x 4 32106 10 4 14104 10 4 2 640171 10 4 y = 8421529 + 21065x 1-01636x 2 + 81131x 4 94154 10 4 29112 10 4 372124 10 4 y = - 1 4121620 + 01328x 1 + 21651x 2 + 161338x 4 26181 10 4 216172 10 4 1 335163 10 4 y = - 14 1151749 + 01631x 1 + 71377x 2 + 41566x 3-361744x 4 184148 10 4 4 149112 10 4 2107 10 4 y = - 1 3021684 + 01242x 1 + 01147x 2 + 271866x 4 19178 10 4 12102 10 4 2 278105 10 4 y = - 1 4271805 + 01385x 1 + 71201x 2-71491x 3 + 261605x 4 778103 10 4 1146 10 8 5138 10 8 y = - 3 5431091 + 01163x 1-1 1091783x 3 + 311676x 4 20179 10 4 4 039164 10 4 y = - 5741537 + 01315x 1 + 11466x 2 + 21915x 4 17151 10 4 81149 10 4 162104 10 4 y = - 1571436-01492x 1 + 21009x 2 + 311825x 4 46166 10 4 190151 10 4 3 017196 10 4 y = - 7061941 + 01448x 1 + 01571x 2 + 31589x 3 + 101620x 4 33169 10 4 42194 10 4 798173 10 4 y = - 2 8641323-01301x 1 + 01757x 2 + 2601712x 3 + 401005x 4 62199 10 4 158142 10 4 8 372125 10 4 y = 2141110 + 01597x 1 + 01846x 2-141652x 3 + 11297x 4 72123 10 4 102136 10 4 156192 10 4 y = - 8301278 + 01318x 1 + 01413x 2 + 11341x 3 + 41357x 4 356167 10 4 463122 10 4 4 886185 10 4 y = - 4611434 + 01316x 1 + 01901x 2-11801x 3 + 01385x 4 10133 10 4 29146 10 4 12159 10 4 y = - 2 9191928 + 11963x 1 + 11876x 2-521768x 3-181736x 4 731177 10 4 699134 10 4 6 984141 10 4 y = 2261063-21241x 1 + 11968x 2 + 21862x 3-01383x 4 43197 10 4 38161 10 4 7151 10 4 y = - 2651401 + 01178x 1 + 01862x 2 + 21854x 3 + 21418x 4 8173 10 4 42128 10 4 118160 10 4 y = - 91017 + 01256x 1 + 01562x 2 + 01897x 3 + 01152x 4 202158 10 4 444173 10 4 120128 10 4 334101 10 4 733126 10 4 198132 10 4 1111 10 8 2152 10 8 12112 10 8 :,,
1416 24 2 GDP Fig12 The GDP equivalent output distribution of wind power resources per hour in China,, 1111 10 8, 2152 10 8, 12112 10 8, 2006 GDP 527111 1 195120 5 745182,,,,,,,, 100 10 4 kw h, 600 t CO 2 3,,,,, 1997 2006 40122%, 53135%, 28515% [ 16 ],,,,,,,,,,
8 : 1417 311,( ),,,,3 :,,,, ;,;,,,, ;,, GDP, 3 Table 3 The index system of development stage regional division of wind power resources GDP F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10 F11, (4),,,, 3791216%, 11 4 Table 4 The correlation coefficient between the indices F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10 F11 F1 11000 0-01728 2-01551 7 01203 9 01239 7-01052 9 01042 8-01195 9-01142 2-01150 3-01540 6 F2-01728 2 11000 0 01621 3-01182 6 01152 7 01244 7 01015 8 01457 0 01454 9 01326 3-01100 5 F3-01551 7 01621 3 11000 0-01018 4 01091 1-01037 0 01013 7 01272 6 01080 4 01071 0 01148 1 F4 01203 9-01182 6-01018 4 11000 0-01092 2-01162 3-01005 6-01191 9-01043 0-01131 5-01129 1 F5 01239 7 01152 7 01091 1-01092 2 11000 0 01341 6 01234 0 01365 7 01487 5 01369 4-01434 2 F6-01052 9 01244 7-01037 0-01162 3 01341 6 11000 0 01099 1 01736 3 01708 0 01978 0-01163 4 F7 01042 8 01015 8 01013 7-01005 6 01234 0 01099 1 11000 0-01144 7 01328 4 01079 3-01126 2 F8-01195 9 01457 0 01272 6-01191 9 01365 7 01736 3-01144 7 11000 0 01713 0 01755 8-01179 6 F9-01142 2 01454 9 01080 4-01043 0 01487 5 01708 0 01328 4 01713 0 11000 0 01740 0-01332 7 F10-01150 3 01326 3 01071 0-01131 5 01369 4 01978 0 01079 3 01755 8 01740 0 11000 0-01114 8 F11-01540 6-01100 5 01148 1-01129 1-01434 2-01163 4-01126 2-01179 6-01332 7-01114 8 11000 0 5,, ( ),SPSS1310
1418 24 312, 100%, 1, ( 0),,, : y = af ( t) (2) : y, a, t,, t ; t; a,,,, y 5 Table 5 The general scores of the p rincipal components 0163 0106 0106-0116 1123 0106 0110 0138-0115 - 0169-0180 - 1111 1149-3154 2143-0123 0150 0132 0116-0114 - 0131 1145 0145-0115 - 0143 0161-0148 - 0156 0129-0141 - 0136 0171 0111 0111 0175 1122 3194 0184-2112 - 0185-0142 - 1113 0140-0123 1113-0145 0100-0142 - 1113 0180 0111-0159 - 0137 0112 1151 0141 0133-0158 - 1136-1189 0104 0166 0105-0143 - 0129 0181 0133-1102 0110 0107-1102 - 0114-0142 0149-0127 - 0163 0157-0113 - 0101 0163 1198-0190 - 1119-0187 - 0122 0174-0114 - 1109-1126 - 0197-0153 1152 1184 3 Fig13 The sketch map of wind power resources development and utilization phase, (2), 4,3 4 : (1) ( t 3 t 4 ) :,, ( ): ( ),,,,,,,,
8 : 1419 4 Fig14 The development stage regional division of wind power resources in China (2) ( t 2 t 3 ) :,,( ): ( ),,,,, (3) ( t 1 t 2 ) :, ( ): ( ),,,, (4) (0 t 1 ) :, ( ):,,,, 4 ( ) 1997 2006 10,
1420 24,, 1111 10 8, 2152 10 8, 12112 10 8, 2006 GDP 527111 1 195120 5 745182,, 3,,,, 4 :,,, ( References) : [ 1 ]. [M ]. :, 2006. 5 7. [ China Rural Technology Development Center. W ind Power U tilization Technology. Beijing: China Agricultural Science and Technology Press, 2006. 5-7. ] [ 2 ],. [ J ]., 2006, 58 ( 2) : 20 24. [ GUO Tai2ying, L I Fa2gui. D iscussion of ideas of China s wind power development referring foreign countries wind power development. Hydropower Survey and D esign, 2006, 58 (2) : 20-24. ] [ 3 ] Record year for wind energy: Global wind power market increased by 43% in 2005, GlobalW ind Energy Council( GW EC) [ EB /OL ]. http: www. gwec. net/up loads/media /Statistics2005-170206. pdf. 2006-03 - 31. [ 4 ],. [ J ]., 2006, (7) : 134 137. [L I Tian2hua, L I Cheng2xiao. On the insp iration from India s experiences of develop ing wind power industry. Ecological Econom ic, 2006, (7) : 134-137. ] [ 5 ] Gustavson M R. L im its to wind power utilization [ J ]. Science, 1979, 204: 13-17. [ 6 ],,. [ J ]., 2001, 22 (2) : 167 170. [ XUE Heng, ZHU Rui2zhao, et al. A ssessment of wind energy reserves in China. Acta Energiae Solaris S inica, 2001, 22 (2) : 167-170. ] [ 7 ]. 2006 [ EB /OL ]. http: www. nwtc. cn /A rticle /ShowA rticle. asp? A rticleid = 1131. [ SH I Peng2fei. Installed capacity of wind farm statistics in China until 2006. http: www. nwtc. cn /A rticle /ShowA rticle. asp? A rticle ID = 1131. ] [ 8 ],,,. [ J ]., 2005, 20 ( 5) : 679 683. [MAO Hui2qin, SONG L i2li, HUANG Hao2hui, et al. Study on the wind energy resource division in Guangdong Province. Journal of N atu2 ral Resources, 2005, 20 (5) : 679-683. ] [ 9 ],. [ J ]., 2007, 22 ( 4) : 585 595. [ ZHANG W en2 jia, ZHANG Yong2zhan. Studies on characteristics of the spatial2temporal distribution and developmet trend for wind farm s in China. Journal of N atural R esources, 2007, 22 (4) : 585-595. ] [ 10 ],. [ J ]., 2005, 6 ( 10) : 109 111. [ SH I Peng2fei, X IE Hong2fei. Suggestions about the grid p ricing mechanism for wind power. Electrical Equipm ent, 2005, 6 (10) : 109-111. ] [ 11 ]. [ J ]., 2007, (1) : 28 29. [ CH I Zhao2wei. The impact on ex2 isting taxation policies to on wind power grid price. Shanghai Electricity, 2007, (1) : 28-29. ] [ 12 ],,,. [ J ]., 2003, 36 (4) : 64 67. [ SUN Tao, ZHAO Hai2 xiang, SHEN Hong, et al. Structure and analysis of wind power farm capital investment in China. Electric Power, 2003, 36 (4) : 64-67. ] [ 13 ],. [ J ]., 2004, 37 ( 7) : 77 80. [ ZHENG Zhao2ning, L IU De2 shun. Forecasting the investment cost of wind power in China. Electric Power, 2004, 37 (7) : 77-80. ] [ 14 ]. [M ]. :, 2006. 52 53. [ GU W ei2dong.
8 : 1421 New Strategy for the Development of W ind Power in China and the W ind Power Non2grid2connection Theory. Beijing: Chem ical Industry Press, 2006. 52-53. ] [ 15 ]. [ J ]., 2008, ( 2) : 9 14. [ FANG Chuang2lin. The goal analysis and prospects of wind power development in China. Energy of China, 2008, (12) : 9-14. ] [ 16 ] L IN Xue2qin, FANG Chuang2lin. Analysis of the development characteristics and dynam ics of the wind power industry in the Bohai2R im Region [ A ]. In: Proceedings of Non2grid2connected W ind Power System s W ind Power Shanghai 2007 [ C ]. The American Scholars Press, 2008. 217-231. W ind Power Resource Appra isa l and D evelopm en t Stage Reg iona l D iv ision of Ch ina WU Feng2lin 1, 2, FANG Chuang2lin 1 (11 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 21 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China) Abstract: Selecting energy consump tion and econom ic output data of each p rovince during 1997-2006 to establish regression equation between energy consump tion and econom ic output, then using the regression equation and equivalent substituted methods to assess the w ind power re2 sources per hour the coal equivalent value, the crude oil equivalent value and the power equiva2 lent value. These equivalent values are respectively 527111 tim es, 1195120 times and 5745182 times that of the GDP of China in 2006. The indicator system of the w ind resource development stage regional p lanning in China was constructed, including energy indicators, w ind resource en2 dowment and other indicators. W ith the methods of Principal Component Analysis ( PCA) and H i2 erarchical C luster Analysis ( HCA), using the indicator system and the concep t equation, Chinese w ind resource development stage could be divided into four phases: op tim ization grow th stage, rap id developm ent stage, slow grow th stage and the initial stage. W hat the basic development strategy at each development stage should be taken was briefly discussed. Key words: w ind power resources; app raisal; development stage; China