56 1 2001 1 A CTA GEO GRA PH ICA S IN ICA V o l. 56, N o. 1 Jan., 2001 : 037525444 (2001) 0120054210 1, 2 (11, 510275; 21, 510120) :,,,,, 17,,,, : ; ; ; : F292 : A 1, ( ), [1 5 ],,,,,, [6 ] ; [7 14 ] ;, [15 18 ],,,, 2,,, 3 : 2000205209; : 2000211210 : (49831003) [Foundation Item: N ational N atural Science Foundation of China, N o. 49831003 ] : (19392 ),,, E2m ail: eesxxq@zsu1edu1cn
1 : 55,,,, 9,, 3 ( 1) 3,, 3 20,, 5 6 9 ; 48,, 13 18 17 1 Tab11 Guangzhou s set of indicators for urban susta inable developmen t,,,,,,,, GD P, GD P,,, GD P, GD P,, GD P, GD P, GD P, GD P, GD P,,,,,,,,, 3 :, 1980 1996 17 ; ;,,,
56 56 ( ) ;,,,,, : Im, Im = n A jx j (221) j= 1, n A, X,, 3, : L I = n B jx j (222) j= 1 L I ; n, 3; X j ; B,,, ;, : D I = 11732 - X 1 X 2 - X 1 X 1 X 2 - X 1 D I (223) D I ; X 1 X 2, ;, ;, : C I = x + y + z x 2 + y 2 + z 2 (224) C I ; x y z,,, 3, 1980 1996,
1 : 57 311, ( 1) 1980 01113 8, 1996 01249 1, 7%, 5 : (1980 1984 ),,,,,,,, 1980 01000 1 1984 01159 5, 01159 4;,, 01010 9 01059 9, 01049, 01403 3, 1984 01258 7,,,, 01113 8 01146 6, 5176%,, (1984 1987 ),,,, 1984 01159 5 1987 01236 5, 4 01077,,, 01258 7 01000 1,,,,, 1987, 1 1980 1996 F ig11 Changes of Guangzhou s environm antal, econom ic ans social sustainable indexes and level index (1980 1996)
58 56 1987 (12 3 ),,,, 010599 010164, (1987 1991 ),,,,, 1991,,,,,,,, 1988 10,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1989 1990, 1991,,,, (1991 1994 ) 1992,,,,, 32,,, 1991 1992, 1992 1994,,,, (1994 1996 ), ;,,,,,, 1995 1996 01105 8,, 1996,,,, 1980
1 : 59 5, [28 ], 312 1, 2, Tab12 The correlation exten t of env ironmen tal,, 2 econom ic and soc ial susta inable indexes 2, 1980 1996-01692 - 01109 01625 (- 01692),,,, ;,,,, ( - 01109), (01625),,,,, 2,,,,, 2 F ig12 L inear sim ulation of the trends of Guangzhou s social and econom ic sustainable indexes 313 ( 3) ; ; ;,,,,
60 56, 3 1980 1996 F ig13 Changes of the indexes of Guangzhou s environm ental, econom ic and social subsystem s and the overall urban developm ent index (1980 1996) 314 ( 4),, 4 1980 1996 F ig14 Changes of Guangzhou s coo rdination index (1980 1996) of urban sustainable developm ent 4,,,,,, ;,,
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62 56 [14 ] B i Jun, Zhang Shen, T ang Yijian et al. A n evaluation model of sustainability and its app lication [J ]. Ch inese E nv ironm ental S cience, 1998, 18 (sup. ): 30236. ( In Ch inese) [,,. [J ]., 1998, 18 ( ): 30236. ] [15 ] H u D an. A n indicating fram ewo rk fo r eco system sustainability[j ]. Ch inese J ou rnal of A pp lication E cology, 1997, 8 (2): 2132217. ( In Ch inese) [. [J ]., 1997, 8 (2): 2132217. ] [ 16 ] Kuang Yaoqiu, Sun D azhong. O n the R esource - carrying - capacity - based Evaluation M odel fo r R egional Sustainable Developm nent: A P relim inary Evaluation on the Sustainable Developm ent of the Pearl R iver Delta Econom ic Zone [J ]. R edai Geog rap hy, 1998, 3: 2492255. ( In Ch inese) [,.., 1998, 3: 2492255. ] [17 ] T ang J ianw u, Guo H uaicheng, Ye W enhu. Environm ental bearing capacity and its app lication on environm ental p lanning[j ]. Ch ina E nv ironm ental S cience, 1997, 17 (1): 629. [J ]., 1997, 17 (1): 629. ] ( In Ch inese) [,,. [ 18 ] BattyM. C ities and comp lexity: imp lication fo r modelling sustainability [A ]. In: B ro tch ie J F. C ities in Competition: P roductive and Sustainable Cities fo r the 21st Century[C ]. M elbourne: Longm an A ustralia P ty L td., 1995, 4692486. [19 ] L i Zhou. A survey on urban environm ental status and urban inhabitant s environm ent aw areness[j ]. E colog ical E conomy, 1998. ( In Ch inese) [. [J ]., 1998. ] [ 20 ] Zhang Junjun. Comp rehensive Evaluation of U rban Sustainable D evelopm ent A Case Study of Guangzhou [D ]. [. [D ]., 1999. ] Com prehen sive Evaluation of Guangzhou Urban Susta inable D evelopm en t XU Xue2qiang 1, ZHAN G Jun2jun 2 (11Center f or U rban and R eg ional S tud ies, Z hong shan U niversity, Guang z hou 510275, Ch ina; 21Guang d ong B ranch, Ind ustrial and Comm ercial B ank of Ch ina, Guang z hou 510120, Ch ina) Abstract: W ith unfo lding and deepen ing of the studies on u rban su stainab le developm en t in the w o rld, the reseach on comp rehen sive evaluation of u rban su stainab le developm en t has also been carried ou t gradually. Guangzhou has acqu ired eno rmou s ach ievem en ts since the refo rm and op en ing up in 1978. O n the one hand, u rban econom ies have rap id ly developed, w here as on the o ther, u rban environm en tal quality has declined, and social developm en t lagged relatively. F irstly, aim ing at the disun ified dim en sion s of all k inds of indicato rs in the indicato r system, the p ap er m akes a standa rd t rea tm en t by the sub ject ion funct ion. Second ly, ow ing to the artificially selected reason, aim ing at the overlap info rm ation w h ich are included in all k inds of indicato rs, the paper elim inates the overlap info rm ation by the p rincipal componen t analysis, and gets sco res of SEN I (su stainab le environm en tal index), SEC I ( su stainab le econom ic index), SSO I ( su stainab le social index) and cum u latives of p rincipal componen ts, and then calcu lates SEN I, SEC I and SSO I by add2w eigh models. L astly, on the basis of SEN I, SEC I and SSO I, the paper design s 3 indexes reflecting the conno tation of u rban su stainab le developm en t, w h ich are L evel Index (L I ), D evelopm en t Index (D I ) and Coo rdination Index (C I ), and scale developm en t levels, developm en t
1 : 63 rates and developm en t coo rdination condition of u rban su stainab le developm en t resp ect ively. O n the ba sis of environm en ta l and socio 2econom ic developm en t da ta from 1980 to 1996, the paper m akes a comp rehen sive evaluation of u rban su stainab le developm en t. T he resu lts are: as far as L I s concerned, there are several characteristics on u rban su stainab le developm en t in Guangzhou city: T he stage of u rban su stainab le developm en t is tu rn ing in to h igh2grade stage, including slow 2developm en t stage ( 1980 1984), recessionary2 developm en t stage ( 1984 1987), adju stab le2developm en t stage ( 1987 1991), fast2 developm en t stage (1991 1994) and slow 2developm en t stage (1994 1996), w h ich is acco rded w ith the law of p eriod2in evo lu t ion and p eriod2betw een p rom o t ion of u rban su stainab le developm en t. T he change of u rban environm en tal, econom ic and social developm en t is dissynch ronou s. T he relation of environm en t and econom y puts up: w hen econom y develop s at h igh speed, there w ou ld be a seriou s environm en tal phenom ena; w hen governm en t strengthen s the adju stm en t, a p rom ising environm en tal phenom enon w ou ld occu ṙ O n the w ho le the relation of environm en t and econom y is negatively related. T he relation of environm en t and society is no t taken on relativity as a w ho le. T he relation of econom y and society is taken on po sitive relativity, and indicates econom ic grow th can drive social p rogress. A t the sam e tim e, the paper raises the rate of social p rogress is m uch low er than the rate of econom ic grow th, and in a sen se the lag of social developm en t w ill lim it econom ic grow th in the fu tu re. A s far as D I s concerned, u rban su stainab le developm en t in Guangzhou city is taken on several characteristics: Environm en tal sub system is taken on no2su stainab le featu re; econom ic sub system is taken on su stainab le featu re; social sub system is taken on su stainab le featu re; and u rban developm en t is taken on su stainab le as a w ho le becau se of pull2effects of socio2econom ic sub system. A s far as C I s concerned, u rban developm en t is taken on w eak2su stainab ility, that is to say that u rban environm en t and socio2econom ic developm en t are in harmon iou s. In a w o rd, by the above2m en tioned comp rehen sive evaluation, the paper raises econom ic developm en t there is at the expan se of seriou s environm en tal phenom ena in the in itial and m iddle stages of the refo rm and open ing up in Ch ina, w h ich coun teract econom ic grow th. It also raises there is non2su stainab le style of u rban developm en t, w h ich canno t b ring in to u rban developm en t as a w ho le. How ever, w ith the adju stm en t, condition s becom e better, there is no alternatives of non2su stainab ility and su stainab ility; w ith the in itial stages in the 1990s, there is rap id grow th, and the mode of developm en t is taken as su stainab ility. A fter 1994, u rban developm en t en tered in to a slow 2developm en t stage. How ever, it is still su stainab le, bu t taken as w eak su stainab ility. Key words: Guangzhou; u rban su sta inab le developm en t; index system ; com p rehen sive evaluation