24 5 Vol124 No15 2009 5 JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES May, 2009, 3,,, ( /, 210093) :,, 1995 2005, :, 8, :,,,,, : ; ; : F42612 : A : 1000-3037 (2009) 05-0833 - 09 10% [ 1 ],, 2010 2020, [ 2 ],,,, [ 3 5 ] [ 6 ], ; [ 7 ], - -, ; [ 8 ] Kaya,,,,, 1 111,,, : 2008-11- 10; : 2009-03- 04 : (200811033) ; (70373029) : (1986- ),,,, E2mail: dingxiang6@163. com 3 : (1968- ),,,, E2mail: hxj369@ nju. edu. cn
834 24, 1874,,, ( ),,,,,,, [ 9 11 ], : X t = C ti x i C ti (1) Y t = C ti y i C ti, X t Y t t, C ti t i, x i y i i 112, 1995 2005 (1996 2006 ) (,, ) ( 1996 2006 ), ( t/ tce) 1, 1 ( t/ tce) Table 1 Coefficient of carbon em issions of different types of energy( t/ tce) DOE /E IA [ 3 ] (2) 01702 01756 01680 01748 01726 01747 6 01726 6 01478 01586 01540 01583 01583 01582 5 01558 8 01389 01449 01410 01444 01409 01443 5 01424 1,, ( 1) 1 1995 2005,, 1, :,,, ;,,, 70 km, 5517 km,, 3 1997, 1998,
5 : 835 1 Fig11 The gravity of carbon em issions per cap ita and its movement trends from 1995 to 2005,,, 2,, 2 1995 2005 Fig12 The changes of longitude and latitude of the gravity of carbon em issions per cap ita from 1995 to 2005, 1998, 1998 2002, 2002,,,,,,, 1997, 1998 2005
836 24 2 211,, LA T = 01620 4 LOG - 341995, R 2 = 01787 3,,, 3,,, 3 Fig13 Regions divided by perpendicular bisector of gravity line,, 2,,,,, 2 1995 2005 Table 2 Ratio of carbon em issions per cap ita of the northeastern part to the southwestern part divided by perpendicular bisector from 1995 to 2005 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 11725 4 11662 5 11688 7 11609 4 11667 9 11736 9 11703 0 11755 2 11708 2 11680 1 11672 3,
5 : 837, 1995 11725 4 2005 11672 3, 2002 2005, 417%,, ;,,,, 212,,, 8 ( ), [ 12 ] : 3 C = C i i =1 3 = i =1 E i E C i E E i Y Y P P (3), C, C i i, E, E i i ( i = 3), Y ( GDP), P S i = E i E, i ; F i = C i E i, i ; I = E Y, GDP ; R = Y P, GDP, A : A = C P t : = 3 S i F i IR (4) i =1 A = A t - A o = A S + A F + A I + A R + A rsd (5) D = A t A o = D S D F D I D R D rsd (6), A D t, 1995 A S A F A I A R ; D S D F D I D R, A rsd D rsd Ang 1998 D ivisia [ 13 ], : D S = exp (W A S ), D F = exp (W A F ), D I = exp (W A I ), D R = exp (W A R ), D rsd = 1 : ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ) ( )
838 24 W = lnd A ; A S = i i A R W ln S t i ; A F S o i = i F i, D F i = i i ln Ft i F o i W ; A I W ln R t ; W R o i = A t i - A o i ln A t i A o i = i i W ln It ; I o (7) = 1, 4 3 1996 2005 4 1996 2005 Fig14 The trends of contribution rates of three major factors to carbon em issions per cap ita in eight regions from 1995 to 2005, GDP 2000
5 : 839,, : 3,, 3, 1995,,,,,,,,, : 3 ( : t/ ) Table 3 Carbon em issions per cap ita in eight comp rehensive econom ic regions( unit: t/person) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1127 1128 1132 1122 1122 1131 1129 1132 1147 1164 1184 0188 0190 0190 0189 0190 0188 0196 1104 1117 1136 1166 0182 0183 0182 0182 0184 0187 0190 0198 1109 1124 1144 0141 0142 0142 0142 0144 0144 0148 0152 0162 0167 0171 0192 0196 0194 0194 0189 0193 0197 1111 1126 1152 1183 0148 0149 0146 0146 0144 0146 0147 0149 0155 0163 0175 0140 0143 0143 0143 0139 0141 0138 0141 0151 0159 0167 0185 0190 0187 0187 0187 0186 0196 1106 1120 1126 1139 : 2002,,,,,, : U,, 2000,,, 2000,, :,, 1999 : 2000 ( 2000 ),,, 2001 : U, 2002, 1999,, :,,, U, 2001,, 2001,,, : 2000,,, 2000,,
840 24,,,, :, 10 1 3 ; 1,, U, 5,, 3,, ;,,, 3 311 (1) 1995 2005, (2), (3) :,,,,,, 312,, ;,,, ;, ( References) : [ 1 ] IEE of Japan. Handbook of Energy & Statistics in Japan[M ]. International A ssociation for Energy Econom ics, 2001. [ 2 ] China Climate Change Group. China Climate Change Country Study[M ]. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2000. [ 3 ],,. [ J ]., 2006, 16 ( 6) : 158 161. [ XU Guo2quan, L IU Ze2yuan, J IANG Zhao2hua. Decomposition model and emp irical study of carbon em issions for China. China Population, Resources and Environm ent, 2006, 16 (6) : 158-161. ] [ 4 ],. [ J ]., 2006, 16 (6) : 23 30. [ PAN Jia2hua, ZHU Xian2li. An analysis of basic needs for human development and its app lications in the design of global climate regime. China Population, Resources and Environm ent,
5 : 841 2006, 16 (6) : 23-30. ] [ 5 ],. [ J ]., 2002, ( 11) : 31 36. [ DA I Yan2de, ZHU Yue2zhong. Analysis on China s sustainable energy development and carbon em ission. Energy of China, 2002, (11) : 31-36. ] [ 6 ],. [ J ]., 2008, 23 ( 2) : 109 115. [WANG Zheng, ZHU Yong2bin. Study on the status of carbon em ission in p rovincial scale of China and countermeasures for reducing its em ission. B ulletin of Chinese A cadem y of Sciences, 2008, 23 (2) : 109-115. ] [ 7 ]. [ J ]., 2006, 25 (1) : 1 9. [ ZHANG Lei. A changing pattern of regional CO 2 em issions in China. Geographical R esearch, 2006, 25 (1) : 1-9. ] [ 8 ],. Kaya [ J ]., 2007, 25 ( 11) : 65 72. [ ZHA Dong2lan, ZHOU De2qun. The inequality about p rovincial energy efficiency and its related CO 2 em ission: Decomposition based on Kaya. System s Engineering, 2007, 25 (11) : 65-72. ] [ 9 ],. 20 [ J ]., 2001, 21 (5) : 385 389. [ XU Jian2hua, YUE W en2ze. Evolvement and comparative analysis of the population center gravity and the economy gravity center in recent twenty years in China. Scientia Geographica S inaca, 2001, 21 (5) : 385-389. ] [ 10 ],,,. [ J ]., 2006, 21 ( 2) : 225 230. [WANG Ying2hong, GUO Da2zhi, ZHANG Hai2rong, et al. Spatial distribution and applications of coal resource potential in China. Journal of N atural Resources, 2006, 21 (2) : 225-230. ] [ 11 ],,. [ J ]., 2005, 20 (6) : 830 835. [L I Jian2ping, ZHANG Bai, ZHANG Shu2qing. Spatial2temporal pattern and driving forces of grassland change in west Ji2 lin Province. Journal of N atural Resources, 2005, 20 (6) : 830-835. ] [ 12 ] Johan A, Delphine F, Koen S. A shap ley decomposition of carbon em issions without residuals[ J ]. Energy Policy, 2002, 30: 727-736. [ 13 ] Ang B W, Zhang F Q, Choi K H. Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition[ J ]. Energy, 1998, 23 (6) : 489-495. M ovem en t of the Grav ity of Carbon Em ission s Per Cap ita and Ana lysis of Causes WANG Q ian2qian, HUANG Xian2jin, CHEN Zhi2gang, TAN Dan, CHUA I Xiao2wei (Department of Land Resources and Tourism Sciences/Centre of Nature Resources, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China) Abstract: In order to make the regional differences caused by carbon em issions per cap ita clear, the concep t of gravity is introduced. The locations as well as the changes of gravity from 1995 to 2005 are calculated and the characteristics of the gravity s movements are concluded. Based on that, two methods are used to analyze the causes of the gravity s movements. analysis in which perpendicular bisector of gravity line is emp loyed. is utilized to analyze the contribution rates of each factor to each region. contribution rates of influencing factors vary greatly in different regions. First by the direct Then the decomposition model The results show that the Generally speaking, the main factors that have effects on the amount of carbon em issions per cap ita are econom ic develop2 ment and energy efficiency. Finally, some suggestions are p roposed such as to popularize advanced technology to reduce regional differences in energy efficiency and p ropel the adjustment of energy structure to boost the inhibiting effect that energy structure has on carbon em issions per cap ita. Key words: gravity; carbon em issions; decomposition model