29 1 2009 1 ACTA ECOLOGICA SIN ICA Vol. 29, No. 1 Jan., 2009 1, 2, 3, 1, 3 (1., 250014; 2. ( ), 100083; 3., 100101) :,, 2000 2005,,,,, : ; ; ; : 100020933 (2009) 0120337207 : F323. 1, Q147, S126 : A Con struction and applica tion of m odeling tendency of land type tran sition ba sed on spa tia l adjacency TANG Kuan2J in 1, ZHENG Xin2Q i 2, 3, YAN Hong2W en 1, DONG J in2w ei 3 1 College of Population, Resources and Environm ent, Shandong N orm al U niversity, J inan 250014, China 2 School of Land Science and Technology, China U niversity of Geosciences (B eijing) 100083, China 3 Institute of Geographical Sciences and N atural Resources Research, B eijing 100101, China A cta Ecologica S in ica, 2009, 29 (1) : 0337 0343. Abstract: Combining with the land2use transition matrix, the adjacency matrix in Landscape Ecology was introduced into land2use change research and the tendency model of land2use types conversion was established. Taking the land2use change of J inan City from 2000 to 2005, the model was app lied to analyze the influence of spatial pattern on the land2use type conversion. The results show that the model was effectively to reflect the p robability of transformation on the land2use types while they were space adjacent, and to exp lore the mechanism of the spatial pattern on the land2use type conversion and m ining the driven force of the land2use change. Lastlly, the app lication scope of the model was defined. Key W ords: adjacency matrix; land2use transition matrix; tendency; model consruction,,,, / (LUCC) ( GLP),,,, : ( 40571119 ) ; ( 07BZZ015 ) ; ( 2006BAB15803, 2006BAB15806, 2006BAJ05A03) ; 2007 : 2008206204; : 2008210228 3 Corresponding author. E2mail: zxqsd@126. com http: / /www. ecolog ica. cn
338 29,,,,,,,,, 1 1. 1 1. 1. 1,, [ 1 3 ], [ 4, 5 ] : ; ;, (, adjacency matrix) (A I) ( PLADJ ) (CLUMPY) [ 6 ],, [ 7 ] 1 Fig. 1 The combination of land2use change and landscape pattern analysis 1. 1. 2 (, land2use transition matrix), [ 8 ] :, ;,,,,, [ 11, 12 ],
1 : 339 [ 9, 10 ], R. G. Pontius [ 13 ],,, [ 1 ],, [ 14, 15 ] 1. 2 1. 2. 1 A rcgrid,, 1 (1) 1, X ij i j,, ( 2) ( 2a), i j 4, 8 ( 2b) (2) 1, T 1, T 2, X ij T 1 T 2 i j,, T 1 T 2, i (X i - ) (X + j ) : X i- = n X ij, X +j = n j =1, j 1 i =1, i j 2. 2. 2 X ij (1) (1),, : P ij = X ij n X ij (2) j =1 1 Table 1 The ba sic form of land2use tran sition ma tr ix and adjacency ma tr ix 1 2 3 n 1 X 11 X 12 X 13 X 1n 2 X 21 X 22 X 13 X 1n 3 X 31 X 32 X 33 X 3n n X n1 X n2 X n3 X nn 2 Fig. 2 The figure of 42neighbor and 82neighbor rule (2) s ij T 1 T 2, i j, S = ( s ij ) ; n ij i j, N = ( n ij ) (3) S N,,, f ij i j, i j, Y = ( y ij ) s ij / n ij, f ij : f ij = y ij / y ji j > i y ij i = j f ij 1, i j, i j j i,, i j ; f ij 1, i j (3)
340 29, i j j i,, j i 2 2. 1, 2000 2005 1 10, TM 6, 31 31, 8 ( ) : ( cultivated land) ( garden2p lot and forest) (water area and wet land) (other agricultural land) ( urban and town) ( rural residential area) ( industrial and traffic land) ( unused land) A rcv iew3. 3, 100m 100m A rcgrid, Fragstats3. 3, 2. 2 2. 2. 1 2000 2000 2,,, 92. 44% 92. 12% ;, 75% 2 2000 ( % ) Table 2 The probab ility adjacency ma trix of land2use in J inan C ity in 2000 Code 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 92. 12 1. 44 0. 72 1. 66 0. 31 3. 23 0. 13 0. 39 2 7. 75 84. 32 0. 16 7. 12 0. 24 0. 26 0. 07 0. 08 3 16. 88 0. 67 78. 94 0. 74 0. 42 2. 09 0. 07 0. 18 4 13. 29 10. 57 0. 25 74. 94 0. 16 0. 57 0. 12 0. 09 5 5. 89 0. 83 0. 34 0. 38 92. 44 0. 05 0. 07 0. 00 6 24. 05 0. 36 0. 67 0. 53 0. 02 73. 89 0. 04 0. 44 7 20. 66 2. 13 0. 50 2. 48 0. 62 0. 85 72. 76 0. 00 8 20. 19 0. 80 0. 39 0. 59 0. 00 3. 05 0. 00 74. 98,,,,,,,,,,, 3 (N P) (AREA _MN ),,, 24105% 20. 66% 20. 19%, 3,, 2. 2. 2 2000 2005 2000 2005 3 5a,, 2000
1 : 341,, 15301 7073hm 2, 3. 00% 11. 09%, 10219 7149 6218hm 2, 10. 76% 26162% 194. 19%,, ( ), : ( 1),, 3 2000 Fig. in 2000 3 The NP and AREA _MN of each land2use type in Jinan City, (2),,, (3),, 2002,,, (4),,, Code 3 2000 2005 Table 3 Land2use change informa tion in J inan C ity during 2000-2005 2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2000 1 487489 (95. 47) 6410 (1. 26) 1130 (0. 22) 3746 (0. 73) 4436 (0. 87) 2905 (0. 57) 4458 (0. 87) 22 (0. 00) 2 1287 (1. 36) 90451 (95. 28) 31 (0. 03) 1909 (2. 01) 714 (0. 75) 89 (0. 09) 430 (0. 45) 22 (0. 02) 3 778 (3. 51) 31 (0. 14) 20933 (94. 31) 15 (0. 07) 51 (0. 23) 68 (0. 31) 320 (1. 44) 0 (0. 00) 4 2936 (4. 46) 7920 (12. 42) 117 (0. 18) 50897 (79. 80) 657 (1. 03) 164 (0. 26) 1031 (1. 62) 55 (0. 09) 5 254 (0. 95) 68 (0. 26) 25 (0. 09) 3 (0. 01) 26217 (97. 63) 91 (0. 34) 195 (0. 73) 0 (0. 00) 6 2488 (3. 64) 210 (0. 31) 61 (0. 09) 67 (0. 09) 1327 (0. 10) 63871 (93. 36) 364 (0. 53) 29 (0. 04) 7 48 (1. 50) 46 (1. 44) 0 (0. 00) 15 (0. 47) 572 (17. 86) 17 (0. 53) 2504 (78. 20) 0 (0. 00) 8 15 (0. 15) 16 (0. 16) 0 (0. 00) 52 (0. 53) 28 (0. 28) 1 (0. 01) 118 (1. 19) 9670 (97. 68) Increase 23107 4482 1263 12880 636 4546 698 230 Decrease 7806 14701 1364 5807 7785 3335 6916 128 Net change - 15301 10219 101-7073 7149-1211 6218-102 ( ) ( % ) ; ( hm 2 ) The figure in the bracket is the conversion p robability between different land2use types( % ) ; while the out in the conversion area ( hm 2 ) 2. 3, 4 4a, 1,,, [ 16 ], : (1),
342 29 4 2000 2005 Fig. 4 The index of Land2use transition tendency in Jinan City during 2000-2005 1,,, (2),, 1, 1,,, (3),,,,,,, 1, 1 (4),,, (5),,, 3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (1), (2),
1 : 343 ( ),,, References: [ 1 ] Sun Y W, Lu A R, Jiang G H. A Landscape Ecological Thinking of Regional Sustainable Land U se Planning. Ecological Economy, 2005 (3) : 56-58. [ 2 ] W u J G. Landscape Ecology: Pattern, Process, Scale and H ierarchy. Beijing: H igher Education Press, 2001. 216-234. [ 3 ] Andre Botequilha Leitao, Jack Ahern. App lying landscape ecological concep ts and metrics in sustainable landscape p lanning. Landscape and U rban Planning, 2002, 59: 65-93. [ 4 ] Yu W anjun,w u Cifang, Guan Tao, et al. Spatial pattern change of land use in Tunliu county, Shanxi Province based on GIS and fractal theory. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2005, 21 (10) : 64-69. [ 5 ] Martin Herold, Helen Couclelis, Keith C. Clarke. The role of spatial metrics in the analysis and modeling of urban land use change. Computers, Environment and U rban System s, 2005, 29: 369-399. [ 6 ] FRAGSTATS2Spatial pattern analysis p rogram for categorical map s [ EB /OL ]. http: / /www. umass. edu / landeco / research / fragstats/fragstats. htm l [ 7 ] Q iu L, L i Z J. Analysis on the landscape pattern over an agricultural changing period in Jianing County. Journal of Fudan University (Natural Science), 2004, 43 (6) : 1001-1009. [ 8 ] Duan Z Q, Zhang F R, Kong X B. Method for information m ining of land2use change and its app licaion. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2005, 21 (12) : 60-66. [ 9 ] Chu D, Zhang Y L, Zheng D. Land use change in Lhasa area, Tibet from 1990 to 2000. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61 (10) : 1075-1083. [ 10 ] Cai W M, Tang H J, Lu G. App lication of app roach of landscape pattern analysis and land use conversion matrix in research of land use characteristics. China Land Science, 2006, 20 (1) : 39-44. [ 11 ] He R Z, Yan D F, Zhang J D. The Markov p rocess for the forecast of land use dynam ic changes in Zhengzhou City. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2006, 22 (9) : 435-437. [ 12 ] L i G, Chen Y. A study on the change and trend of the land use in the fast urbanization area of southeastern coastal area in China a case of Jinjiang City. Econom ic Geography, 2006, 26 (3) : 409-411. [ 13 ] Robert G. Pontius Jr. Statistical methods to partition effects of quantity and location during comparison of categorical map s at multip le resolutions. Photogram Eng Rem S, 2002, 68 (10) : 1041-1049. [ 14 ] M iao Z H, L iu Y L, Fuzzy2Markov chain model with weights for p rediction of cultivated land demand. Geomatics and Information Science ofw uhan University, 2005, 30 (4) : 305-308. [ 15 ] Ge Q S, Zhao M C, Zheng J Y. Land use change of China during the 20 th Century. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2000, 55 (6) : 698-705. [ 16 ] L i G,W u C F, Cao S A. Study on indicators system of selecting cultivated land into p rime farm land. Journal of AgriculturalMechanization Research, : 2006 (8) : 46-48. [ 1 ],,.., 2005 (3) : 56 58. [ 2 ].. :, 2001. 216 234. [ 7 ],.. ( ), 2004, 43 (6) : 1001 1009. [ 8 ],,.., 2005, 21 (12) : 60 66. [ 9 ],,.., 2006, 61 (10) : 1075 1083. [ 10 ],,,.., 2006, 20 (1) : 39 44. [ 11 ],,,.., 2006, 22 (9) : 435 437. [ 12 ],.., 2006, 26 (3) : 409 411. [ 14 ],,.., 2005, 30 (4) : 305 308. [ 15 ],,. 20., 2000, 55 (6) : 698 705. [ 16 ],,,.., 2006 (8) : 46 48.