Regional Growth Strategy Work Session Growth Management Policy Board

Regional Growth Strategy Work Session Growth Management Policy Board September 6, 2018 1

Overview Recap June GMPB work session Objectives and outcomes Regional geographies Growth scenarios Breakout Discussion: transit-oriented development goals and jobs-housing balance Next steps 2

Regional Growth Strategy Work Plan GMPB extended meeting June 7, 2018 Scenarios and geographies Summer 2018 GMPB extended meeting Sept 6, 2018 Refine scenarios/alts Fall 2018 GMPB extended meeting Nov 1, 2018 DSEIS release Feb 2019 Draft V2050 release Summer 2019 Background Growth strategy performance Relationship to targets Growth strategy objectives Regional geographies 3

Regional Growth Strategy Work Plan GMPB extended meeting June 7, 2018 Scenarios and geographies Summer 2018 GMPB extended meeting Sept 6, 2018 Refine scenarios/alts Fall 2018 GMPB extended meeting Nov 1, 2018 DSEIS release Feb 2019 Draft V2050 release Summer 2019 Develop one or more growth scenarios for early evaluation Continue refinement after Sept 2018 GMPB discussion 4

Regional Growth Strategy Work Plan GMPB extended meeting June 7, 2018 Scenarios and geographies Summer 2018 GMPB extended meeting Sept 6, 2018 Refine scenarios/alts Fall 2018 GMPB extended meeting Nov 1, 2018 DSEIS release Feb 2019 Draft V2050 release Summer 2019 Nov 2018 GMPB: Define alternatives no action plus modified growth strategy alternative(s) for environmental review (accelerated compared to Feb version of work plan) 5

2050 Forecast 1.8 million more people and 1.2 million more jobs by 2050 6

Regional Growth Strategy Aspirational, but achievable Growth focused in Urban Growth Areas, cities, centers Move towards jobs/housing balance Preserves and supports rural and resource lands Environmental, economic, transportation benefits Numeric guidance for targets Land use & transportation connection 7 VISION 2040 Regional Geographies Map

Growth Strategy Objectives

VISION 2040 Objectives - Recap Protect natural environment & resource lands Focus growth within Urban Growth Areas, cities, and centers Keep rural areas rural Improve balance of jobs and housing across region Achieve growth pattern that is efficient to serve with infrastructure Minimize emissions that affect climate Tool to implement VISION 2040 policy objectives 9

GMPB June Discussion General support for the existing objectives Interest in being more specific about desired outcomes Housing was a major theme, including affordable housing and balancing housing needs and incomes Objectives should be measurable Other topics identified: o TOD opportunities, health and equity, innovation and change, etc. 10

Regional Staff Committee June-July Discussion Protect, restore, and enhance environmental features and habitats Facilitate access to different types of jobs & housing throughout region Maintain industrial lands and freight movement Emphasize leveraging major transit and infrastructure investments Support public health Create a region of centers Address social equity and displacement 11

RGS Objectives Physical Characteristics Maintain stable urban growth areas Focus the great majority of new population and employment within urban growth areas Maintain a variety of community types, densities, and sizes Achieve a better balance of jobs and housing across the region

RGS Objectives Physical Characteristics Within urban growth areas, focus growth in cities Within cities, create and support centers to serve as concentrations of jobs, housing, services, and other activities Build transit-oriented development around planned infrastructure Use existing infrastructure and new investments efficiently 13

Outcomes Climate Community & Culture Economy Environment Health Housing Innovation Mobility and Connectivity Natural Resources Public Facilities & Services Resilience Rural Areas Social Equity 14

Regional Geographies

Regional Growth Strategy Components Regional Geographies. Groupings of places within the Regional Growth Strategy Growth Scenarios. Concepts for how growth should be assigned. Some scenarios may become SEPA alternatives. Screening Factors. Short list of measures to evaluate growth scenarios.

Regional Geographies Metropolitan Cities Core Cities Larger Cities Largest cities in each county: Seattle, Bellevue, Everett, Tacoma and Bremerton All other cities with Regional Growth Centers Cities with more than 22,500 combined jobs & population 17

Regional Geographies Small Cities Cities with less than 22,500 combined jobs & population Rural Other areas located outside the Urban Growth Area Unincorporated Urban Unincorporated areas located within the Urban Growth Area Resource Lands Designated agricultural, forest, & mineral lands 18

Regional Geographies VISION 2040 Regional Geographies Map Scoping Comments: Consider changes to Small, Larger, Urban Unincorporated Address key differences in transit + infrastructure Address Major Military Installations

Regional Geographies Proposal: Proposed Regional Geographies Map Reaffirm focus on jurisdictions with designated regional centers Differentiate current Small and Larger cities by existing and planned highcapacity transit Includes light rail, bus rapid transit, commuter rail, ferry & streetcar Identify unincorporated urban areas with high-quality transit service Recognize Major Military Installations 2020

Proposed Regional Geographies Current Metropolitan Cities Core Cities Proposed Metropolitan Cities Core Cities Larger Cities High Capacity Transit Communities Small Cities Urban Unincorporated Areas Rural Resource Cities and Towns Urban Unincorporated Areas Rural Resource Major Military Installations 21

Discussion Questions Does the board have any additional comments on the proposed regional geographies? Should these draft changes be used as PSRC develops new growth alternatives for VISION 2050? 22

Growth Scenarios

Performance Overall Long range, big picture trends are moving towards Regional Growth Strategy o o More growth in urban areas, cities and centers Less growth in rural and resource areas Metro cities still catching up; unincorporated urban continue to grow faster than RGS County-level jobs/housing balance better than anticipated; still long-term challenge 24

Preliminary Growth Scenarios Stay the Course. Extends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050 Forward from 2017. Applies VISION 2040 growth assumptions to a 2017 base Dispersed Urban Growth. Distributes growth broadly across urban growth area Transit Focused Growth. Distributes more growth around high capacity transit 25

Population Change by Proposed Scenarios Total Population Change: 1.8 million new people by 2050

VISION 2040 Stay the Course Extends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050 Population Change: 2017 to 2050 Geography Amount of Share of Regional Growth Regional Growth Metropolitan Cities 607,000 35% Core Cities 488,000 28% Transit Communities 307,000 17% Cities & Towns 174,000 10% Urban Unincorporated 85,000 5% Rural 95,000 5%

Scenario 1: Forward from 2017 Applies VISION 2040 growth assumptions to a 2017 base Population Change: 2017 to 2050 Geography Share of Regional Growth Difference from Stay the Course Metropolitan Cities 33% -24,000 Core Cities 27% -11,000 Transit Communities 17% -10,000 Cities & Towns 10% 9,000 Urban Unincorporated 6% 27,000 Rural 6% 9,000

Scenario 2: Dispersed Urban Growth Distributes growth broadly across urban growth area Population Change: 2017 to 2050 Geography Share of Regional Growth Difference from Stay the Course Metropolitan Cities 15% -344,000 Core Cities 15% -225,000 Transit Communities 20% 44,000 Cities & Towns 25% 265,000 Urban Unincorporated 20% 266,000 Rural 5% -7,000

Scenario 3: Transit Focused Growth Distributes more growth around high capacity transit Population Change: 2017 to 2050 Geography Share of Regional Growth Difference from Stay the Course Metropolitan Cities 38% 58,000 Core Cities 33% 85,000 Transit Communities 17% -3,000 Cities & Towns 6% -68,000 Urban Unincorporated 4% -13,000 Rural 2% -60,000

Employment Change by Proposed Scenario Total Employment Change: 1.2 million new jobs by 2050

VISION 2040 Stay the Course Extends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050 Employment Change: 2017 to 2050 Geography Regional Growth by Geography Share of Regional Growth Metropolitan Cities 509,000 44% Core Cities 413,000 36% Transit Communities 126,000 11% Cities & Towns 65,000 6% Urban Unincorporated 30,000 3% Rural 14,000 1%

Scenario 1: Forward from 2017 Applies VISION 2040 growth assumptions to a 2017 base Employment Change: 2017 to 2050 Geography Share of Regional Growth Difference from Stay the Course Metropolitan Cities 43% -12,000 Core Cities 35% -7,000 Transit Communities 11% -2,000 Cities & Towns 6% 5,000 Urban Unincorporated 3% 5,000 Rural 2% 11,000

Scenario 2: Dispersed Urban Growth Distributes growth broadly across the urban growth area Employment Change: 2017 to 2050 Geography Share of Regional Growth Difference from Stay the Course Metropolitan Cities 23% -243,000 Core Cities 20% -181,000 Transit Communities 20% 106,000 Cities & Towns 20% 167,000 Urban Unincorporated 15% 144,000 Rural 2% 9,000

Scenario 3: Transit Focused Growth Distributes more growth around high capacity transit Employment Change: 2017 to 2050 Geography Share of Regional Growth Difference from Stay the Course Metropolitan Cities 44% 1,000 Core Cities 37% 18,000 Transit Communities 12% 11,000 Cities & Towns 4% -19,000 Urban Unincorporated 2% -7,000 Rural 1% -3,000

Preliminary Round 1 Screening Factors

Screening Factors Short list of measures to evaluate growth scenarios Mobility. Delay, transit ridership, mode share Growth Near Transit. New people and jobs near transit [forthcoming] Housing Choice. Growth at high, medium & low densities Access to Opportunity. Growth in moderate to high opportunity areas Jobs-Housing Balance. Ratio by county and subarea Environment. Greenhouse gas emissions [forthcoming]

PRELIMINARY Scenario Summary Findings Mobility Stay the Course Forward from 2017 Dispersed Urban Growth Transit Focused Growth SOV Mode Share All Trips 35% - +4% -2% Delay per Person 47 +1% +13% +2% Annual Transit Boardings 470,000,000 +4% - 6% +14% Delay per Truck 108 - +5% -

PRELIMINARY Scenario Summary Findings Housing Choice Stay the Course Forward from 2017 Dispersed Urban Growth Transit Focused Growth % Lower Density (single family) 54% + 1% + 7% - 5% % Medium (duplex, triplex, low-rise) 18% - - - % High Density (larger apt, condo bldgs) 28% - 1% - 7% + 5% Access to Opportunity Stay the Course Forward from 2017 Dispersed Urban Growth Transit Focused Growth % Very Low and Low Opportunity 48% - 4% - 9% - 1% % Moderate, High and Very High Opportunity 52% + 4% + 9% + 1%

PRELIMINARY Scenario Summary Findings Jobs-Housing Balance Stay the Course Forward from 2017 Dispersed Urban Growth Transit Focused Growth King County 1.26-5% -4% -4% Kitsap County 0.65 14% 12% 14% Pierce County 0.76 2% 3% 1% Snohomish County 0.77 - -1% 1%

Policy Questions

Jobs-Housing Balance To improve jobs-housing balance, VISION 2040: Increased share of residential growth planned for King County Increased share of employment growth planned for Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish counties Policy Adjustment - Population Policy Adjustment - Employment 2000-40 2000-40 Pop V2040 RGS Pop % Shares Policy % Shares (SAF06) Adjustment (V2040 RGS) King County 39% + 3% 42% Kitsap County 8% + 1% 9% Pierce County 25% - 2% 23% Snohomish County 28% - 2% 26% Region Total 100% 100% 2000-40 2000-40 Emp V2040 RGS Emp % Shares Policy % Shares (SAF06) Adjustment (V2040 RGS) King County 62% - 5% 57% Kitsap County 4% + 1% 5% Pierce County 15% + 2% 17% Snohomish County 18% + 2% 20% Region Total 100% 100% 42

Jobs-Housing Balance Does the board want to consider policy-oriented adjustments to the county shares to promote a different balance of population and employment? County Population Shares in VISION 2040 Baseline 2017-50 Population Share County Employment Shares in VISION 2040 Baseline 2017-50 Employment Share King 42% 50% Kitsap 9% 5% Pierce 23% 21% Snohomish 26% 24% King 57% 64% Kitsap 5% 4% Pierce 17% 15% Snohomish 20% 17% 43

Growth Near Transit Growing Transit Communities: 25% of housing and 35% of employment growth in light rail corridors Current Conditions Stay the Course 2050 Population 19% 33% Employment 47% 58% Should we consider a specific goal for growth in transit station areas? If yes, how aggressive should that goal be? 44

Work Session - Discussion Questions Jobs-Housing Balance: Does the board want to consider policy-oriented adjustments to the county shares to promote a different balance of population and employment? Transit: Should we consider a specific goal for growth in transit station areas? If yes, how aggressive should that goal be? 45

Growth Management Policy Board Work Session Regional Growth Strategy 11:15 am.. Breakout sessions 12:00 pm.. Break 12:15 pm.. Summary of Breakout Sessions, continue discussion Meeting video will resume at about 12:15 pm

Preliminary Growth Scenarios Stay the Course. Extends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050 Forward from 2017. Applies VISION 2040 growth assumptions to a 2017 base Dispersed Urban Growth. Distributes growth broadly across urban growth area Transit Focused Growth. Distributes more growth around high capacity transit 47

Discussion Questions Should staff continue to develop these concepts as potential environmental analysis alternatives, including any adjustments directed by the board? Should any of the scenarios be removed from consideration at this time? 48

Next Steps Continue discussion & development with committees o Discuss scenario concepts with staff committees o Additional modeling Background paper (September 2018) o Summarize background & performance data on the Regional Growth Strategy November GMPB finalize alternatives for environmental review 49

Thank you 50