Neil I. Fox*, David M. Jankowski, Elizabeth Hatter and Elizabeth Heiberg University of Missouri - Columbia, Columbia, Missouri, USA
|
|
- Norman Moody
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 5.10 FORECASTING STORM DURATION Neil I. Fox*, David M. Jankowski, Elizabeth Hatter and Elizabeth Heiberg University of Missouri - Columbia, Columbia, Missouri, USA 1. INTRODUCTION The approach to severe weather warning using radar-based algorithms generally involves locating the center of a storm cell on successive images and deriving a propagation vector to indicate the predicted motion of the storm. This methodology has been successful in forecasting the onset of severe weather, but for flash flood forecasting the duration of heavy precipitation is of interest, and to forecast this it is the motion of the trailing edge of the storm that appears critical. Collier and Fox (2003) and subsequently Hatter (2004), investigated the meteorological and hydrological components of flash flood events. In each case the findings indicated that, of the many factors required to identify threatening situations, storm velocity and duration were the least well understood and quantified. There have been several studies examining the relationship between storm motion and storm propagation from the development of new cells within the storm system, but none have looked explicitly at the issue of forecasting of storm duration, which could be expected to be well correlated with total storm precipitation. Further to this, event organizers and emergency services are often concerned with the time that precipitation will end. This paper addresses two issues: the first is an exploration of the difference in velocity between the centroid track usually calculated and used for warning purposes and the velocity of the trailing edge. The second part of the paper is an investigation of the effectiveness of a measurement of the velocity of the trailing edge of the storm as a flash flood potential indicator by examining correlations of storm velocity measures and precipitation totals. * Corresponding author address: Neil I. Fox, Univ. of Missouri - Columbia, Dept. of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences, 332 ABNR Building Columbia, MO 65211; foxn@missouri.edu. The current storm-cell identification and tracking algorithm (SCIT) in the WSR-88D radar systems tracks the storm centroid. A linear least-squares method is used to determine movement using current and past mass-weighted centroid location (Johnson et al. 1998). In contrast to work that deals with the motion of MCCs (e.g., Corfidi et al. 1996; Chappell 1986; Collier and Fox 2003), the SCIT is concerned with the motion of the individual storm cells that make up the cluster. This is because severe weather is associated with individual cells, and the aim is to forecast the motion of these smaller areas where the severe weather threat is found. While the SCIT algorithm is very useful in determining the motion of severe weather events associated with individual cells (tornadoes, large hail) it is less useful when trying to forecast flash floods associated with an entire cluster of cells. Because the cells can be moving relatively quickly in comparison to the storm propagation as a whole, the cell motion predicted by the storm tracking algorithm can be misleading if one is trying to determine how long it will rain over a particular area. It would be more beneficial to take into account storm motion and propagation as a whole, rather than individual storm cell motions. Other short-period forecast systems (e.g. TITAN: Dixon and Wiener 1993) have similar approaches to storm tracking. 2. STORM DURATION PREDICTION A storm center traveling with a velocity v c will reach a location at a distance, D, in a time, t c, given by D/v c. Similarly the trailing edge will reach the same location at a time (D + D)/v r, where v r is the velocity of the rear edge of the storm and D is the distance between the centre and the rear edge of the storm. Making the crude assumption that D >> D, then the predicted duration (T) of the storm over the point at a distance, D, from the center of the storm is given by:
2 1 T = D vr 1 vc vr D v = c vcvr Here we define (v c v r)/v cv r as the storm duration factor (SDF) and this is expected to be a clear measure of the expected duration of heavy precipitation over a point in the storm s future track. It is easy to see that this parameter tends to 0 when the two velocities are both large and similar (fast moving storm), but is not quite so small when they are small and similar (slow moving storm). A storm which has redevelopment on the trailing edge will have a reasonable v c, but a small v r, leading to a large value of the parameter and this is when we expect the storm to persist over a given area. In (1) we also consider only the magnitudes of the velocities. In reality the propagation of the center and rear edge of the storm will most often proceed in different directions. For convenience the SDF ignores this. Practically, this is consistent with the concept of an objective measure of flash flood threat rather than an explicit precipitation forecast. Physically one would not expect the directions of these two vectors to diverge greatly, and given that the storm does have width, and will not move in a linear fashion, it seems reasonable to take the SDF as a good measure. How good a measure is what this work set out to establish. The SCIT analyzed centroid velocities are used for v c. This algorithm often re-detects storm cells as new entities, leading to jumps in diagnosed cell velocity or two velocities for what would be considered a single storm for the purposes of precipitation forecasting. By using the fastest velocity of those that are available for a cluster of cells (that appear as a continuous rainfall area), forward propagation of the storm by development on the leading edge of the storm is accounted for, and one determines the earliest time that rain will fall at the location of interest. v r is found by locating the trailing edge on subsequent scans. In order to reduce errors in diagnosed velocities the difference in position of the rear edge was found at 12-minute (for the 6-minute radar scan cycle) or 15-minute (for the 5-minute scan cycle) intervals. The trailing edge is found by tracing the diagnosed centroid velocity vector backwards until the observed reflectivity falls below a threshold value of 30 dbz. Again, by ignoring storm-cell continuity this (1) methodology implicitly accounts for redevelopment on the rear flank and possible training of storms. Even negative values of v r are permitted. Such values would lead to negative values of the SDF which could equally result from v r > v c. This latter condition may occur if the cell is dying out, or if the velocities are similar but have slight errors. 3. DATA For this study, radar data was examined from a number of events of different types and from a variety of areas of the US. Level II Nexrad data was acquired from the NCDC archive and processed using WATADS. Using the available NSSL algorithm suite SCIT tracks and cell tables were used to assess the centroid velocity at each time step. One-hour rainfall accumulations for the hour subsequent to the scan analyzed were also available and used to correlate the SDF for a point 25km ahead of the storm center. Other distances were also considered, but the results are not presented here. The first case occurred on October 1998, near Kansas City and St. Joseph, Missouri. Thunderstorms produced extremely heavy rain, which led to severe flash floods over west-central Missouri during this event. The thunderstorms were relatively slow moving and convection continued to redevelop over the same areas. These factors allowed for heavy precipitation to fall for an extended period of time. Radar data from the Kansas City, MO radar (KEAX) was used. Precipitation totals varied widely over the area. Gauges at Kansas City, MO and St. Joseph, MO, recorded totals of mm and mm, respectively. In the storm event reports, however, much heavier amounts were recorded in the area. Some areas received as much as 76.2 mm to 127 mm in 2 hours and the highest 24-hour rainfall totals reported were mm. Data was used from the St. Louis, MO radar (KLSX) from the event of 07 May 2000 over eastcentral Missouri. Thunderstorms produced extreme flash flooding over east central Missouri during the overnight and early morning hours of 6-7 May Glass et al. (2001) described the conditions before the event as seemingly benign, however, continual convective development led to a nearly stationary system for several hours. Over 305 mm of rain fell
3 over a fairly broad span of Franklin County Missouri, with unofficial reports of up to 406 mm west of Union, MO (Glass et al. 2001). According to the event record for the storm, the rain fell at a rate of 76.2 mm per hour from about 0800 to 0900UTC. An example image from this case is shown in Figure 1. The storms were moving from SW to NE and the magenta line illustrates the diagnosed rear edge of the storm of interest. This shows the redevelopment at the rear edge and potential training in this case. they did contribute to the overall persistence of the flood threat by maintaining soil moisture levels and river levels. Figure 3 is an example of a typical image from July 1 st, 2002 from the San Antonio radar. Although there is structure in the distribution of cells, as the motion was from SE to NW each cell is isolated and does not show signs of training. Figure 2: Example image of storm structure from San Antonio radar on July 1 st, RESULTS 4.1 Rear edge vs. centroid velocity Figure 1: Example image of storm structure from St. Louis radar on May 7 th, Another case included in this study used data from the Huntsville, AL (KHTX) radar on 6 May This was also a severe flooding event enacted by repeated redevelopment and propagation of cells over similar tracks. In the case of training storms the rear edge identification will often produce very slow motion vectors in comparison with the centroid motion vector, especially if there is no real gap between the cell as it moves away and the developing cell at the rear. Data was taken from the San Antonio / Austin, TX (KEWX) radar for an extended period of rainfall events from 28 June 9 July This comprised a whole series of discrete rainfall episodes which resulted from a variety of mechanisms and storm types. Some storms propagated onshore from the Gulf of Mexico, while others developed over the elevated topography west of the area and moved eastward over the same region. The result was a series of heavy precipitation events over a number of days that produced a number of severe floods and flash floods. However, many of the storms did not, of themselves, produce floods, Comparisons of rear edge velocities and those of the centroid found by the SCIT algorithm are shown in the scatterplot in Figure 3. This is composed of 356 points, the majority of which (240) are from the extended San Antonio case. While there are many points that lie close to the line of equality, there are a significant number of points showing the rear edge propagating significantly more slowly than the centroid. As was seen in the reflectivity imagery, and illustrated by the scattergram, the cases from the San Antonio (blue crosses) had storms that were mostly isolated cells that propagated without significant development. In these cases the cells had a fairly constant shape and the two velocities were similar. The data from the Missouri cases (green crosses) show a larger difference with a large number of the cells having much slower rear edge velocities. The two cases represented by these were both significant, damaging flash floods caused by repeated redevelopment and training.
4 The data from the Huntsville case (red crosses) show a mixture of cells with slower rear edges and those that move at approximately the same speed as the centroid. Although the cells were similar to those seen in the Missouri cases there was sufficient separation between existing cells and those that developed to their rear that redevelopment resulted in cells that were identified as new rather than rearward extensions of the existing cell. not others. Therefore, the intention is to continue analyzing data and separate data by some objective assessment of storm type. Figure 4: One-hour precipitation accumulation at 25km versus 1/v c. Figure 3: Comparison between centroid and rear edge velocities. Points depicted in blue are from the San Antonio case study, those in green are from the St. Louis and Kansas City cases, and those in red from the Huntsville radar. The solid line is that of equality. 4.2 Comparisons with precipitation totals In order to determine what measure of storm velocity provided the best indicator of future precipitation graphs were prepared that plotted 1/v c, 1/v r, and the SDF against one hour precipitation totals from the forecast time T = 0 to T + 60 minutes at a distance of 25km ahead of the centroid location. These are shown in figures 4, 5 and 6. None of these graphs provide a clear indication that there is a reliable relationship between the parameters. Despite the clustering of points close to the zero precipitation axis there is some sign in figure 6 that the precipitation accumulation increases with increasing SDF. The number of points clustered close together, and close to both axes, makes interpretation difficult. There is some sign that the precipitation accumulations increase with the values of each velocity measure. Some of the problems in determining relationships may be due to the range of storm types incorporated into each graph. It may be that the analysis would be useful for some types of storms and Figure 5: One-hour precipitation accumulation at 25km versus 1/v c. Figure 6: One-hour precipitation accumulation at 25km versus the SDF. 5. DISCUSSION AND NEXT STEPS Although there clearly appears to be a difference between the diagnosed centroid motion and that of the rear edge, there is little evidence that the simple use of the differential velocity provides a good
5 prognostic indication of imminent rainfall totals. Two types of cases have been observed. There is one where genuine back-building occurs and the storm has a very slow rear edge velocity. In these cases there is some evidence that this approach has some value, but more of these cases need to be examined to ascertain accurate results. The next steps in the investigation are to redo the analyses accounting for cell size. This moves away from the range independent measure of SDF presented in equation (1), as it necessitates the use of the following formulation: 1+ D = D 1 T D v r v c This now depends on the relative distance of the area in question to the size of the storm cell. It therefore also makes sense to study this without reference to a fixed value of D, but to a fixed surface location (such as a rain gauge site). These modifications will form the basis of the next phase of these studies. The use of rain gauge data will also permit the comparison of rear edge velocity and precipitation end time. (2) Glass, F.H., J.P. Gagan, and J.T. Moore, 2001:The extreme east-central Missouri flash flood of 6-7 May Preprints, Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Reponses, Albuquerque, NM. Amer. Meteor. Soc., Hatter, E.A., 2004: Using Radar and Hydrologic Data to Improve Forecasts of Flash Floods in Missouri. MS Thesis, University of Missouri. Johnson, J.T., P.L. MacKeen, A. Witt, E.D. Mitchell, G.J. Stumpf, M.D. Eilts, and K.W. Thomas, 1998: The storm cell identification and tracking algorithm: An enhanced WSR-88D algorithm. Wea. Forecasting, 13, ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was funded partly under a COMET Partners Project no S and by the University of Missouri Research Council. REFERENCES Chappell, D. F., 1986: Quasi-stationary convective events. Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting, P. S. Ray, Ed. Amer. Meteor. Soc., Collier, C.G. and N.I. Fox, 2003: Assessing the flooding susceptibility of river catchments to extreme rainfall in the United Kingdom. Int. J. River Basin Man. 1 (3). Corfidi, S.F., J.H. Merritt, and J.M. Fritsch, 1996: Predicting the movement of mesoscale convective complexes. Wea. Forecasting, 11, Dixon, M. and G. Weiner, 1993: TITAN: Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking Analysis and Nowcasting A radar based methodology. J. Atmos. Oceanic. Technol., 10,
Using Cell-Based VIL Density to Identify Severe-Hail Thunderstorms in the Central Appalachians and Middle Ohio Valley
EASTERN REGION TECHNICAL ATTACHMENT NO. 98-9 OCTOBER, 1998 Using Cell-Based VIL Density to Identify Severe-Hail Thunderstorms in the Central Appalachians and Middle Ohio Valley Nicole M. Belk and Lyle
More informationP2.12 An Examination of the Hail Detection Algorithm over Central Alabama
P2.12 An Examination of the Hail Detection Algorithm over Central Alabama Kevin B. Laws *, Scott W. Unger and John Sirmon National Weather Service Forecast Office Birmingham, Alabama 1. Introduction With
More informationTHUNDERSTORM LIGHTNING DATA
THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATION USING RADAR AND TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA Jianhua Dai 1,2 *, Yuan Wang 1, Lei Chen 2, Lan Tao 2, Hong Lin 2 1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory
More informationP 5.16 Documentation of Convective Activity in the North-eastern Italian Region of Veneto
P 5.16 Documentation of Convective Activity in the North-eastern Italian Region of Veneto Andrea M. Rossa 1, Alberto. Dalla Fontana 1, Michela Calza 1 J.William Conway 2, R. Millini 1, and Gabriele Formentini
More informationP2.7 A TECHINQUE FOR DEVELOPING THE RATIO OF SUPERCELL TO NON-SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. Brian L. Barjenbruch and Adam L. Houston
P2.7 A TECHINQUE FOR DEVELOPING THE RATIO OF SUPERCELL TO NON-SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS Brian L. Barjenbruch and Adam L. Houston Department of Geosciences University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska 1. INTRODUCTION
More information13.5 DOPPLER RADAR ANALYSIS OF THE 28 APRIL 2002 LA PLATA, MD TORNADIC SUPERCELL
13.5 DOPPLER RADAR ANALYSIS OF THE 28 APRIL 2002 LA PLATA, MD TORNADIC SUPERCELL David R. Manning* and Steven M. Zubrick NOAA/National Weather Service, Sterling, Virginia 1. Introduction A severe weather
More informationFigure 5: Comparison between SAFIR warning and radar-based hail detection for the hail event of June 8, 2003.
SAFIR WARNING : Expected risk Radar-based Probability of Hail 0915 0930 0945 1000 Figure 5: Comparison between SAFIR warning and radar-based hail detection for the hail event of June 8, 2003. Lightning
More informationP0.98 Composite Analysis of Heavy-Rain-Producing Elevated Thunderstorms in the MO-KS-OK region of the United States
P0.98 Composite Analysis of Heavy-Rain-Producing Elevated Thunderstorms in the MO-KS-OK region of the United States Laurel P. McCoy and Patrick S. Market Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric
More informationVol. VIII, Nr. 6 / 2009
Fenomene i procese climatice de risc THE 22-27 JULY 2008 SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AN EXAMPLE OF RETROGRADE MEDITERRANEAN CYCLONE FLOOD GINA TIRON,CAROLINA-IRINA OPREA ABSTRACT. The 22-27 July 2008 severe weather
More informationP1.10 Synchronization of Multiple Radar Observations in 3-D Radar Mosaic
Submitted for the 12 th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteor. 29 Jan. 2 Feb. 2006. Atlanta, GA. P1.10 Synchronization of Multiple Radar Observations in 3-D Radar Mosaic Hongping Yang 1, Jian
More information7 WSR-88D OBSERVATIONS OF AN EXTREME HAIL EVENT IMPACTING ABILENE, TX ON 12 JUNE 2014
28TH CONFERENCE ON SEVERE LOCAL STORMS 7 WSR-88D OBSERVATIONS OF AN EXTREME HAIL EVENT IMPACTING ABILENE, TX ON 12 JUNE 2014 ARTHUR WITT * NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK MIKE JOHNSON
More informationIndiana County Flash Flood of 22 June 2017
Indiana County Flash Flood of 22 June 2017 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Slow moving thunderstorms brought 3 to 4 inches of rainfall to Indiana County, PA during
More informationHaiti and Dominican Republic Flash Flood Initial Planning Meeting
Dr Rochelle Graham Climate Scientist Haiti and Dominican Republic Flash Flood Initial Planning Meeting September 7 th to 9 th, 2016 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrcwater.org Haiti and Dominican
More informationCharles A. Doswell III, Harold E. Brooks, and Robert A. Maddox
Charles A. Doswell III, Harold E. Brooks, and Robert A. Maddox Flash floods account for the greatest number of fatalities among convective storm-related events but it still remains difficult to forecast
More informationHeavy Rainfall Event of June 2013
Heavy Rainfall Event of 10-11 June 2013 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A 500 hpa short-wave moved over the eastern United States (Fig. 1) brought a surge of
More informationPart. I Introduction. Part II Scale Characteristics and Climatology of MCSs
Talking points for MCS teletraining session Part. I Introduction Slide 1 Slides 2-3 Title Objectives Part II Scale Characteristics and Climatology of MCSs Slides 4-5 Climatology of mesoscale convective
More informationVertically Integrated Ice A New Lightning Nowcasting Tool. Matt Mosier. NOAA/NWS Fort Worth, TX
P686 Vertically Integrated Ice A New Lightning Nowcasting Tool Matt Mosier NOAA/NWS Fort Worth, TX 1. BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY Lightning is a frequent and dangerous phenomenon, especially in the summer
More informationby Alexander Stuart Lanpher May 2012 Arthur DeGeatano
Evaluation of the Storm Cell Identification and Tracking Algorithm used by the WSR- D Honors Thesis Presented to the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Physical Sciences of Cornell University in
More informationDEVELOPMENT OF CELL-TRACKING ALGORITHM IN THE CZECH HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
DEVELOPMENT OF CELL-TRACKING ALGORITHM IN THE CZECH HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE H. Kyznarová 1 and P. Novák 2 1 Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, kyznarova@chmi.cz 2 Czech Hydrometeorological
More informationWARNING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM INTEGRATED INFORMATION (WDSS-II). PART I: MULTIPLE-SENSOR SEVERE WEATHER APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENT AT NSSL DURING 2002
14.8 WARNING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM INTEGRATED INFORMATION (WDSS-II). PART I: MULTIPLE-SENSOR SEVERE WEATHER APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENT AT NSSL DURING 2002 Travis M. Smith 1,2, *, Gregory J. Stumpf 1,2,
More informationSevere Weather Watches, Advisories & Warnings
Severe Weather Watches, Advisories & Warnings Tornado Watch Issued by the Storm Prediction Center when conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over a larger-scale
More informationFundamentals of Radar Display. Atmospheric Instrumentation
Fundamentals of Radar Display Outline Fundamentals of Radar Display Scanning Strategies Basic Geometric Varieties WSR-88D Volume Coverage Patterns Classic Radar Displays and Signatures Precipitation Non-weather
More information13.2 USING VIRTUAL GLOBES TO IMPROVE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS IN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
13.2 USING VIRTUAL GLOBES TO IMPROVE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS IN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Andy Foster* National Weather Service Springfield, Missouri* Keith Stellman National Weather Service Shreveport,
More information4/18/2010. National Weather Service. Severe Weather Forecasting: A Western North Carolina Case Study
National Weather Service Severe Weather Forecasting: A Western North Carolina Case Study Laurence G. Lee Science and Operations Officer National Weather Service Greer, SC Plus 13 River Forecast Centers
More informationAurora Bell*, Alan Seed, Ross Bunn, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
15B.1 RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND NOWCASTS: THE CHALLENGING ROAD FROM RESEARCH TO WARNINGS Aurora Bell*, Alan Seed, Ross Bunn, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia 1. Introduction Warnings are
More informationFinal Report. COMET Partner's Project. University of Texas at San Antonio
Final Report COMET Partner's Project University: Name of University Researcher Preparing Report: University of Texas at San Antonio Dr. Hongjie Xie National Weather Service Office: Name of National Weather
More information8.5 DIAGNOSIS AND PREDICTION OF THE 3-4 JUNE 2002 IOWA-ILLINOIS FLOOD
8.5 DIAGNOSIS AND PREDICTION OF THE 3-4 JUNE 2002 IOWA-ILLINOIS FLOOD James T. Moore Ray A. Wolf Brad L. Mickelson Jeff A. Zogg Charles E. Graves Saint Louis University Earth and Atmospheric Sciences St.
More informationTIFS DEVELOPMENTS INSPIRED BY THE B08 FDP. John Bally, A. J. Bannister, and D. Scurrah Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
P13B.11 TIFS DEVELOPMENTS INSPIRED BY THE B08 FDP John Bally, A. J. Bannister, and D. Scurrah Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia 1. INTRODUCTION This paper describes the developments
More informationSouthern Plains Heavy rain and Flooding
Abstract: Southern Plains Heavy rain and Flooding By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A severe weather event affected the southern Plains on 31 May 2013. The severe weather event
More informationJoshua M. Boustead *1 NOAA/NWS WFO Omaha/Valley, NE. Philip N. Schumacher NOAA/NWS WFO Sioux Falls, SD
11B.2 Influence of Diabatic Potential Vorticity Anomalies upon Warm Conveyor Belt Flow. Part II: 3-5 January 2005 Joshua M. Boustead *1 NOAA/NWS WFO Omaha/Valley, NE Philip N. Schumacher NOAA/NWS WFO Sioux
More informationJ4.6 UNDERSTANDING THE MESOSCALE PROCESSES OF FLASH FLOODS: IMPACTS ON PREDICTION AND RESPONSE
J4.6 UNDERSTANDING THE MESOSCALE PROCESSES OF FLASH FLOODS: IMPACTS ON PREDICTION AND RESPONSE Matthew Kelsch Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training (COMET ) University
More informationA LOOK AT TROPICAL STORM GASTON FLOODING IN VIRGINIA
J12B.4 A LOOK AT TROPICAL STORM GASTON FLOODING IN VIRGINIA John Billet* and Keith Lynch NOAA/NWS Wakefield, VA 1. INTRODUCTION Hurricane Gaston made landfall north of Charleston, SC on Sunday morning
More informationTesting a Polarimetric Rainfall Algorithm and Comparison with a Dense Network of Rain Gauges.
Testing a Polarimetric Rainfall Algorithm and Comparison with a Dense Network of Rain Gauges. Alexander Ryzhkov (1,2), Terry Schuur (1,2), Dusan Zrnic (1) 1 National Severe Storms Laboratory, 1313 Halley
More informationPrecipitation Structure and Processes of Typhoon Nari (2001): A Modeling Propsective
Precipitation Structure and Processes of Typhoon Nari (2001): A Modeling Propsective Ming-Jen Yang Institute of Hydrological Sciences, National Central University 1. Introduction Typhoon Nari (2001) struck
More informationSouthern Heavy rain and floods of 8-10 March 2016 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803
Southern Heavy rain and floods of 8-10 March 2016 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction Heavy rains (Fig. 1) produced record flooding in northeastern Texas
More informationTROPICAL STORM HARVEY BRIEFING
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BRIEFING 10:00 AM CDT Sunday, August 27, 2017 Prepared by: NWS LIX NWSNewOrleans www.weather.gov/neworleans Situation Overview New Information Tropical Storm Winds 40mph Immediate
More informationExperimental Test of the Effects of Z R Law Variations on Comparison of WSR-88D Rainfall Amounts with Surface Rain Gauge and Disdrometer Data
JUNE 2001 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE 369 Experimental Test of the Effects of Z R Law Variations on Comparison of WSR-88D Rainfall Amounts with Surface Rain Gauge and Disdrometer Data CARLTON W. ULBRICH Department
More information1 of 7 Thunderstorm Notes by Paul Sirvatka College of DuPage Meteorology. Thunderstorms
1 of 7 Thunderstorm Notes by Paul Sirvatka College of DuPage Meteorology Thunderstorms There are three types of thunderstorms: single-cell (or air mass) multicell (cluster or squall line) supercell Although
More informationConvective downbursts are known to produce potentially hazardous weather
Investigation of Convective Downburst Hazards to Marine Transportation Mason, Derek Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology Alexandria, VA Abstract Convective downbursts are known to produce
More informationRegional Flash Flood Guidance and Early Warning System
WMO Training for Trainers Workshop on Integrated approach to flash flood and flood risk management 24-28 October 2010 Kathmandu, Nepal Regional Flash Flood Guidance and Early Warning System Dr. W. E. Grabs
More informationMichael L. Jurewicz, Sr. NOAA/NWS, Binghamton, NY WFO GYX Spring Workshop May 7, 2012
Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr. NOAA/NWS, Binghamton, NY WFO GYX Spring Workshop May 7, 2012 Motivation / Statistics Specific Topics A Sampling of Past and Present WFO BGM Research on Flooding Three Strikes and
More informationA Climatology of supercells in Romania
A Climatology of supercells in Romania Bogdan Antonescu, Daniel Carbunaru, Monica Sasu, Sorin Burcea, and Aurora Bell National Meteorological Administration, Sos. Bucuresti-Ploiesti 97, Bucharest-013686,
More informationImpacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America
Impacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA Abstract: The mean 500 hpa flow over North America featured a trough over
More informationSeeing Supercells as Heavy Rain Producers
Paper 2A.7. Appeared in: Preprints, 14 th Conf. Hydrology (Dallas, TX - 10-15 January 1998), Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73-76. Seeing Supercells as Heavy Rain Producers Charles A. Doswell III NOAA/National Severe
More informationA Preliminary Severe Winter Storms Climatology for Missouri from
A Preliminary Severe Winter Storms Climatology for Missouri from 1960-2010 K.L. Crandall and P.S Market University of Missouri Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences Introduction The
More informationName of University Researcher Preparing Report: Russ Schumacher (PI) and Charles Yost (Graduate research assistant)
FINAL REPORT University: Colorado State University Name of University Researcher Preparing Report: Russ Schumacher (PI) and Charles Yost (Graduate research assistant) NWS Office: Hydrometeorological Prediction
More informationNowcasting for New Zealand
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS Atmos. Sci. Let. 6: 35 39 (2005) Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/asl.88 Nowcasting for New Zealand Warren Gray, 1 * Howard
More informationAn Algorithm to Nowcast Lightning Initiation and Cessation in Real-time
An Algorithm to Nowcast Initiation and Cessation in Real-time An Data Mining Model Valliappa 1,2 Travis Smith 1,2 1 Cooperative Institute of Mesoscale Meteorological Studies University of Oklahoma 2 Radar
More informationHailstorms in Northern Greece Evangelos Tsagalidis, Ph.D.
Hailstorms in Northern Greece Evangelos Tsagalidis, Ph.D. Head of Meteorological Applications Centre Hellenic Agricultural Insurance Organization ELGA International Airport Macedonia, 55103 Thessaloniki,
More informationFlooding and Severe weather of 27 June 2013
Flooding and Severe weather of 27 June 2013 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Flooding and severe weather affected Pennsylvania on 27 June 2013 (Fig 1). The severe
More informationMonday, October 19, CDT Brian Hoeth
Monday, October 19, 2015 1400 CDT Brian Hoeth Some of the briefing presented is worstcase scenario and may differ in detail from local NWS Weather Forecast Offices. National Weather Service Southern Region
More informationCustom Weather Forecast
1 of 23 Custom Weather Forecast 2018 Chicago Yacht Club s Race To Mackinac- Cruising Division Disclaimer: The user assumes all risk related to the use of this Custom Weather Forecast. The crew of the participating
More informationA Comparison of Tornado Warning Lead Times with and without NEXRAD Doppler Radar
MARCH 1996 B I E R I N G E R A N D R A Y 47 A Comparison of Tornado Warning Lead Times with and without NEXRAD Doppler Radar PAUL BIERINGER AND PETER S. RAY Department of Meteorology, The Florida State
More informationHRRR and the Mid-Mississippi Valley Severe and Heavy rainfall event of October 2014
HRRR and the Mid-Mississippi Valley Severe and Heavy rainfall event of 13-14 October 2014 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA contributions by Charles Ross 1. Overview A deep
More informationCASA WX DFW URBAN DEMONSTRATION NETWORK
CASA WX DFW URBAN DEMONSTRATION NETWORK Goals Background on Regional CASA WX Project Explain the capabilities, structure of the Radar Network Present the CASA WX DFW Test Bed will be rolled out Describe
More information4B.3 ENHANCED, HIGH-DENSITY SEVERE STORM VERIFICATION. Travis M. Smith, Kiel L. Ortega and Angelyn G. Kolodziej
4B.3 ENHANCED, HIGH-DENSITY SEVERE STORM VERIFICATION Travis M. Smith, Kiel L. Ortega and Angelyn G. Kolodziej Cooperate Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma (also affiliated
More informationFinal Report. We will discuss the project accomplishments in two sub sections, reflecting the two major efforts given in Section 1.
Final Report to Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training (COMET) University: University of Illinois in Urbana Champaign Name of University Researcher Preparing Report: David
More informationUsing Satellite Data to Analyze the Initiation and Evolution of Deep Convective Clouds
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters ISSN: 674-2834 (Print) 2376-623 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/taos20 Using Satellite Data to Analyze the Initiation and Evolution of
More informationHurricane Harvey: SE Texas Impacts. 10 AM CDT UPDATE Saturday, August 26, 2017 Prepared by: Dan Reilly, Brian Kyle
Hurricane Harvey: SE Texas Impacts 10 AM CDT UPDATE Saturday, August 26, 2017 Prepared by: Dan Reilly, Brian Kyle Latest Observations and Radar Hurricane Harvey centered near Victoria and weakening Wind
More information11/19/14. Chapter 11: Hurricanes. The Atmosphere: An Introduction to Meteorology, 12 th. Lutgens Tarbuck
Chapter 11: Hurricanes The Atmosphere: An Introduction to Meteorology, 12 th Lutgens Tarbuck Lectures by: Heather Gallacher, Cleveland State University! Hurricanes: " Hurricanes are intense centers of
More informationDepth-Duration Frequency (DDF) and Depth-Area- Reduction Factors (DARF)
Spatial Analysis of Storms Using GIS Brian Hoblit, Steve Zelinka, Cris Castello, and David Curtis Abstract Point data from rain gages have been historically used to develop depth-area relationships, design
More informationLIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND CHARGE STRUCTURE OF MICROBURST PRODUCING STORMS
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND CHARGE STRUCTURE OF MICROBURST PRODUCING STORMS Kristin M. Kuhlman, Travis M. Smith Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma and NOAA/National
More informationNational Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg, Forecast Office
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg, Forecast Office CoCoRaHS Presentation: NC CERT Conference May, 2017 Introduction- who we are. Federal Agency Within the U.S. Dept. of Commerce Introduction-
More informationSevere Weather Potential for Southeast Texas
Severe Weather Potential for Southeast Texas Dan Reilly, Kent Prochazka, Scott Overpeck National Weather Service Houston/Galveston 10 am Synopsis Storm to likely bring severe weather to Southeast Texas
More informationEvolution and Maintenance of the June 2003 Nocturnal Convection
Evolution and Maintenance of the 22-23 June 2003 Nocturnal Convection Jerilyn Billings NOAA/NWS Wichita, KS August 6 th, 2011 Work Completed at North Carolina State University for MS Thesis During the
More informationMid-Atlantic Severe Weather Event of 23 June 2015
Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Event of 23 June 2015 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A widespread severe weather event occurred in the eastern United States on 23
More informationConvective Heavy rainfall event of 23 July 2013
Convective Heavy rainfall event of 23 July 2013 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA Abstract: A record rain event affected southern Lebanon County on 23 July
More informationTROPICAL STORM HARVEY BRIEFING
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BRIEFING 8:00 AM CDT Monday, August 28, 2017 Prepared by: Brian Hoeth, Jason Johnson, on behalf of WGRFC www.weather.gov Current Storm Total Rainfall and River Flood Status 24 Storm
More informationThe Hydrologic Cycle: How Do River Forecast Centers Measure the Parts?
The Hydrologic Cycle: How Do River Forecast Centers Measure the Parts? Greg Story Meteorologist National Weather Service Fort Worth, TX Overview n Introduction What is the mission of an RFC? n The Hydrologic
More informationA COMPREHENSIVE 5-YEAR SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES 3. RESULTS
16A.4 A COMPREHENSIVE 5-YEAR SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES Russell S. Schneider 1 and Andrew R. Dean 1,2 1 DOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP Storm Prediction Center 2 OU-NOAA Cooperative
More informationERAD THE SIXTH EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON RADAR IN METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
Radar and lightning data based classification scheme for the severity of convective cells Pekka Rossi 1, Kalle Halmevaara 2, Antti Mäkelä 1, Jarmo Koistinen 1, Vesa Hasu 2 1. Finnish Meteorological Institute,
More informationGC Briefing. Weather Sentinel Hurricane Florence. Status at 5 PM EDT (21 UTC) Today (NHC) Discussion. September 13, 2018
GC Briefing September 13, 2018 Weather Sentinel Hurricane Florence Tropical storm conditions have been reported for areas of North Carolina and will continue to spread inland to the west and south. Hurricane
More informationGuided Notes Weather. Part 2: Meteorology Air Masses Fronts Weather Maps Storms Storm Preparation
Guided Notes Weather Part 2: Meteorology Air Masses Fronts Weather Maps Storms Storm Preparation The map below shows North America and its surrounding bodies of water. Country borders are shown. On the
More informationTHE DETECTABILITY OF TORNADIC SIGNATURES WITH DOPPLER RADAR: A RADAR EMULATOR STUDY
P15R.1 THE DETECTABILITY OF TORNADIC SIGNATURES WITH DOPPLER RADAR: A RADAR EMULATOR STUDY Ryan M. May *, Michael I. Biggerstaff and Ming Xue University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma 1. INTRODUCTION The
More information11A.2 Forecasting Short Term Convective Mode And Evolution For Severe Storms Initiated Along Synoptic Boundaries
11A.2 Forecasting Short Term Convective Mode And Evolution For Severe Storms Initiated Along Synoptic Boundaries Greg L. Dial and Jonathan P. Racy Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma 1. Introduction
More informationComparison of Estimated and Observed Storm Motions to Environmental Parameters
Comparison of Estimated and Observed Storm Motions to Environmental Parameters Eric Beamesderfer 1, 2, 3, 4, Kiel Ortega 3, 4, Travis Smith 3, 4, and John Cintineo 4, 5 1 National Weather Center Research
More informationP. N. Gatlin 1, Walter. A. Petersen 2, Lawrence. D. Carey 1, Susan. R. Jacks Introduction
P14.21 34 th Conference on Radar Meteorology Williamsburg, VA, 4-9 Oct 2009 The NEXRAD Rainfall Estimation Processing System: A radar tool to improve rainfall estimation across the Tennessee River Valley
More informationAutomated Storm-based Scheduling on the National Weather Radar Testbed Phased Array Radar
P41 Automated Storm-based Scheduling on the National Weather Radar Testbed Phased Array Radar David L. Priegnitz Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman,
More informationTropical Weather Briefing
Tropical Weather Briefing August 28, 2012 700 AM CDT National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Slidell, LA Current Satellite Tropical Storm Isaac Watches/Warnings Tropical Storm Isaac Track Guidance
More informationFrank Revitte National Weather Service. Weather Forecast Office New Orleans/Baton Rouge
Frank Revitte National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office New Orleans/Baton Rouge Above normal activity 17 Total Named Storms 7 Tropical Storms 4 Hurricanes 6 Major Hurricanes Not the most active,
More informationTropical Storm Harvey: SE Texas Impacts
Tropical Storm Harvey: SE Texas Impacts 10 AM CDT UPDATE Thursday, August 24, 2017 Prepared by: Dan Reilly, Brian Kyle PLEASE MUTE YOUR LINES AND DON T PUT ON HOLD! Situation Overview Tropical Storm Harvey
More informationThe Integration of WRF Model Forecasts for Mesoscale Convective Systems Interacting with the Mountains of Western North Carolina
Proceedings of The National Conference On Undergraduate Research (NCUR) 2006 The University of North Carolina at Asheville Asheville, North Carolina April 6-8, 2006 The Integration of WRF Model Forecasts
More informationU.S. WIND, SCS, FLOOD, WINTER WEATHER
U.S. WIND, SCS, FLOOD, WINTER WEATHER An unusually strong winter storm crossing the Central Plains continues to bring winter weather, strong winds, heavy precipitation and severe thunderstorms to areas
More informationOVERLAPPING SCALES and the ATMOSPHERIC CAUSES OF FLOODS. Katherine K. Hirschboeck Laboratory of Tree-ring Research University of Arizona
OVERLAPPING SCALES and the ATMOSPHERIC CAUSES OF FLOODS Katherine K. Hirschboeck Laboratory of Tree-ring Research University of Arizona Regional Flood Mapping from Hirschboeck, 1991; modified from Baldwin
More informationUnit 4. This unit will enable you to improve coordination and communication with State and local agencies when hazardous weather threatens.
Unit 4 This unit will enable you to improve coordination and communication with State and local agencies when hazardous weather threatens. In this unit we will discuss the role of Emergency Managers in
More informationOrographically enhanced heavy rainfall of 23 May 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Orographically enhanced heavy rainfall of 23 May 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION During the overnight hours and into the early morning of
More informationU.S. WIND, SCS, FLOOD, WINTER WEATHER
U.S. WIND, SCS, FLOOD, WINTER WEATHER The threat continues for strong winds, heavy snow, heavy rain and severe thunderstorms according to the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS). The threat comes with
More informationHail Warning Decision Guidance
Hail Warning Decision Guidance Michelle A. Harrold National Weather Center Research Experience for Undergraduates, and Valparaiso University Norman, OK, and Valparaiso, IN James G. LaDue NOAA/National
More informationInvestigation of the Arizona Severe Weather Event of August 8 th, 1997
Investigation of the Arizona Severe Weather Event of August 8 th, 1997 Tim Hollfelder May 10 th, 2006 Abstract Synoptic scale forcings were very weak for these thunderstorms on August 7-8, 1997 over the
More informationTropical Storm Harvey: SE Texas Impacts. 10 AM CDT UPDATE Sunday August 27, 2017 Prepared by: Lance Wood
Tropical Storm Harvey: SE Texas Impacts 10 AM CDT UPDATE Sunday August 27, 2017 Prepared by: Lance Wood Situation Overview Catastrophic flooding is ongoing with flash flood emergencies remaining in effect.
More information2 July 2013 Flash Flood Event
2 July 2013 Flash Flood Event By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A retrograding 500 hpa cyclone and anticyclone (Fig. 1) set up deep southerly flow
More informationNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
January 2016 February 9, 2016 This was a dry month across the HSA despite one large and several smaller snowfalls. Most locations ended up 1-2 inches below normal for the month. The driest locations at
More informationMid-West Heavy rains 18 April 2013
Abstract: Mid-West Heavy rains 18 April 2013 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA The relatively wet conditions during the first 16 days of April 2013 set the
More informationMesoscale Convective Systems in the Western Mediterranean Rigo, T.(1), and M. Berenguer (2)
Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Western Mediterranean Rigo, T.(1), and M. Berenguer (2) (1) Servei Meteorologic de Catalunya, Barcelona (2) Centre of Applied Research in Hydrometeorology, Universitat
More informationP3.1 Development of MOS Thunderstorm and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast Equations with Multiple Data Sources
P3.1 Development of MOS Thunderstorm and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast Equations with Multiple Data Sources Kathryn K. Hughes * Meteorological Development Laboratory Office of Science and Technology National
More informationFlooding in Western North Carolina: Some Spatial, Hydrologic, and Seasonal Characteristics CAUTION!! Outline. Basic Flood Facts.
Flooding in Western North Carolina: Some Spatial, Hydrologic, and Seasonal Characteristics J. Greg Dobson CAUTION!! National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center RENCI at UNC-Asheville Engagement
More information16 September 2005 Northern Pennsylvania Supercell Thunderstorm by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
16 September 2005 Northern Pennsylvania Supercell Thunderstorm by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION During the afternoon hours of 16 September 2005,
More informationP3.10 EVALUATION OF A 2 HOUR REFLECTIVITY NOWCAST USING A CROSS CORRELATION TECHNIQUE COMPARED TO PERSISTENCE
P3.1 EVALUATION OF A 2 HOUR REFLECTIVITY NOWCAST USING A CROSS CORRELATION TECHNIQUE COMPARED TO PERSISTENCE Steven Vasiloff 1 1 National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK 1. INTRODUCTION A very short
More informationLong term analysis of convective storm tracks based on C-band radar reflectivity measurements
Long term analysis of convective storm tracks based on C-band radar reflectivity measurements Edouard Goudenhoofdt, Maarten Reyniers and Laurent Delobbe Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, 1180
More informationP4.8 PERFORMANCE OF A NEW VELOCITY DEALIASING ALGORITHM FOR THE WSR-88D. Arthur Witt* and Rodger A. Brown
P4.8 PERFORMANCE OF A NEW VELOCITY DEALIASING ALGORITHM FOR THE WSR-88D Arthur Witt* and Rodger A. Brown NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma Zhongqi Jing NOAA/National Weather Service
More information