Georgia and Northeast Florida Coastal Storm Surge and Mapping Study: Continued Progress Amid Challenges
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1 Georgia and Northeast Florida Coastal Storm Surge and Mapping Study: Continued Progress Amid Challenges Presented by Christopher Bender, Ph.D., P.E., D.CE June 12, 2013
2 Presentation Overview FEMA risk studies outline Overview Georgia and northeast Florida surge study Work completed and project status Study methodology and initial results Mesh development Validation storm selection Validation results Questions?
3 FEMA Region IV Coastal Flood Risk Studies in Florida
4 GANEFL Coastal Surge Study Extent NEFL Georgia Coastal Counties Duval Bryan Flagler Camden Nassau Chatham St. Johns Glynn Volusia Liberty McIntosh Interior Counties Clay Brantley Putnam Charlton Effingham Long Wayne
5 Approach Storm Surge SWEL
6 Initial Results Model Mesh Development Developed seamless topographic and bathymetric data surface (Digital Elevation Model [DEM]) Developed SWAN+ADCIRC mesh Completed tasks in parallel Validation Storm Selection Validation Comparisons
7 Seamless Topographic and Bathymetric Data Surface (DEM) Development
8 Bathymetric Data Coverage
9 Seamless Topographic and Bathymetric Data Surface
10 SWAN+ ADCIRC Model Mesh Development SWAN+ADCIRC model Finite element model Uses unstructured, triangulated mesh Node spacing set to accurately represent topography/bathymetry Applies feature arcs to represent elevated or depressed features (e.g., roads or channels)
11 SWAN+ ADCIRC Model Mesh Development
12 Example of Feature Arcs
13 SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Duval County Jacksonville Beaches, FL
14 SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Duval County
15 Initial Results Model Mesh Development Developed seamless topographic and bathymetric data surface (DEM) Developed SWAN+ADCIRC mesh Completed tasks in parallel Validation Storm Selection Validation Comparisons
16 Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events Landfalling, bypassing, exiting storms that passed near study area
17 Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events Landfalling, bypassing, exiting storms that passed near study area
18 Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events (Cont d) Criteria Sorting of Storms 1. Local Landfall 2. Significant WL Difference 3. WL Data Availability (more than 3 stations) 4. Wave Data Availability (2 or more stations) Cleo Dora (5.91 ft) Frances (15) Frances (5) Dora David (5.55 ft) Charley (14) Ophelia (5) David Jeanne (4.22 ft) Jeanne (14) Tammy (5) Chris Tammy (4.07 ft) Ophelia (9) Fay (5) Edouard Fay (3.99 ft) Tammy (9) Jeanne (4) Tammy Frances (3.85 ft) Dennis 99 (8) Edouard (3) Fay Gabrielle (3.82 ft) Edouard (8) Charley (3) Floyd (3.8 ft) Floyd (7) Chris (2) Ophelia (3.04 ft) Irene (7) Dennis99 (2) Abby (2.93 ft) Fay (6) Floyd (2) Irene (2.92 ft) David (5) Irene (2) Bertha (2.62 ft) Bob (2.44 ft) Erin (2.43 ft) Cleo (2.35 ft) Dennis 99 (2.24 ft)
19 Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events (Cont d) Criteria Sorting of Storms 1. Local Landfall 2. Significant WL Difference 3. WL Data Availability (> 3 Stations) 4. Wave Data Availability (2 or more stations) Cleo Dora (5.91 ft) Frances (15) Frances (5) Dora David (5.55 ft) Charley (14) Ophelia (5) David Jeanne (4.22 ft) Jeanne (14) Tammy (5) Chris Tammy (4.07 ft) Ophelia (9) Fay (5) Edouard Fay (3.99 ft) Tammy (9) Jeanne (4) Tammy Frances (3.85 ft) Dennis 99 (8) Edouard (3) Fay Gabrielle (3.82 ft) Edouard (8) Charley (3) Floyd (3.8 ft) Floyd (7) Chris (2) Ophelia (3.04 ft) Irene (7) Dennis99 (2) Abby (2.93 ft) Fay (6) Floyd (2) Irene (2.92 ft) David (5) Irene (2) Bertha (2.62 ft) Bob (2.44 ft) Erin (2.43 ft) Cleo (2.35 ft) Dennis 99 (2.24 ft)
20 Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events (Cont d) Selected five validation storms Hurricane Dora (1964) Hurricane David (1979) Hurricane Frances (2004) Tropical Storm Tammy (2005) Tropical Storm Fay (2008)
21 Initial Results Model Mesh Development Developed seamless topographic and bathymetric data surface (DEM) Developed SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Completed tasks in parallel Validation Storm Selection Validation Comparisons
22 Validation: Tides Tide validation based on comparisons to NOAA stations with tidal constituent data
23 Validation: Tides Tide validation applied eight constituents Constituent Average Amplitude (ft) Period (hours) Type M Principal lunar N Larger lunar elliptic S Principal solar K Luni-solar diurnal O Principal lunar diurnal K Luni-solar semi-diurnal P Principal solar diurnal Q Larger lunar elliptic Data collected during a 112-day ADCIRC simulation
24 Validation: Tides; Amplitude
25 Validation: Tides; Phase
26 Validation WSE: Historical Storms; Hurricane Dora
27 Validation WSE: Historical Storms; Hurricane Dora (cont d) Duval and Nassau Counties, FL
28 Validation WSE: Historical Storms; Hurricane Dora (cont d)
29 Validation WSE: Historical Storms; All
30 Validation Waves: Hurricane Frances
31 Validation Waves: Hurricane Frances
32 Validation Waves: All Storms
33 Validation Waves: All Storms
34 Summary DEM and model mesh developed with best available data Include features that alter storm surge Historical storms selected to validate model WSE and wave values SWAN+ADCIRC model results compared to available tide, storm WSE, and storm wave data Next phase will complete production runs, develop % annual chance WSE s, and develop work maps
35 Coastal Flood Risk Study Team Contacts Tucker Mahoney, FEMA Coastal Flood Risk Study Lead Michael DelCharco, BakerAECOM Project Manager Dick Wild, BakerAECOM Coastal Outreach Lead
36 THANK YOU
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