M. OBBARD 1, G. SZOR 2. And M. DYCK 3. Wildlife Research Permit: WL Nunavut Wildlife Research Trust Project:

Transcription

1 AERIAL SURVEY OF THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY POLAR BEAR SUBPOPULATION, INTERIM FIELD REPORT TO GOVERNMENT OF NUNAVUT M. OBBARD 1, G. SZOR 2 And M. DYCK 3 3 January 2017 Submitted to meet requirements of: Wildlife Research Permit: WL Nunavut Wildlife Research Trust Project: Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry 2 Québec Ministère des forêts, de la faune et des parcs 3 Department of Environment, Government of Nunavut STATUS REPORT NUNAVUT DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT WILDLIFE RESEARCH SECTION IGLOOLIK, NU Page 1 of 14

2 SUMMARY: The purpose of this study was to update the population size, trend and status of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation. This information is required to inform the status and management of this subpopulation. There remain regional, national and international concerns with respect to the status of this subpopulation. This collaborative project included multiple local, territorial, and provincial partners. Noninvasive aerial survey methods have been successfully developed and were used to estimate the population size and status of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation in 2011/2012. Therefore, to update the status including trend of the subpopulation, another aerial survey was recommended in the absence of other methods such as physical mark-recapture. An aerial survey in Southern Hudson Bay during August/September 2016 was conducted. Here we report on the activities that occurred DURING September 2016 in Ontario, Nunavut and Quebec. A doubleobserver, sight-resight, distance sampling platform to survey the study area was employed. The overall data from Ontario, Quebec, and Nunavut areas are currently being analysed and results will be available during early 2017, at which point consultations with Nunavut communities and other agencies are planned. ᓇᐃᒡᓕᒋᐊᖅᓯᒪᔪᒃᑯᑦ ᑐᑭᓯᑎᑦᑎᒋᐊᕈᑎ: ᑖᔅᓱᒪ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔾᔪᑎᖓ ᓄᑖᙳᕆᐊᖅᑎᑦᑎᔪᒪᒧᑦ ᖃᔅᓯᐅᔭᕆᐊᒃᓴᖏᑦᑕ ᐱᕈᖅᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ, ᖃᓄᐃᓕᕙᓪᓕᐊᓂᕆᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᒻᒪ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᓂᕆᔭᖏᑦ ᓂᒋᕐᒥᐅᑦ ᑕᓯᐅᔭᕐᔪᐊᖓᑕ ᓇᓄᐃᑦ ᓇᓅᖃᑎᒃᑲᓐᓂᖏᑦ. ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᑐᓴᐅᒪᔾᔪᑕᐅᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᔾᔪᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᖓᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᐅᓚᑕᐅᓂᖓᓗ ᓇᓅᖃᑎᒌᓄᑦ. ᑕᐃᒪ ᓱᓕ ᐊᕕᒃᑐᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂ, ᑲᓇᑕᓕᒫᒥ ᐊᒻᒪ ᓯᓚᕐᔪᐊᕐᒥᐅᓕᒫᑦ ᐱᔾᔪᑎᓖᑦ ᐃᒃᐱᒋᔭᐅᑦᑎᐊᖅᑐᓂᒃ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᖓᓕᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓇᓅᖃᑎᒃᑲᓐᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ. ᑖᓐᓇ ᐃᖅᑲᓇᐃᔭᖃᑎᒌᖕᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᐱᓕᕆᐊᒃᓴᖅ ᐃᓚᓕᐅᔾᔨᓯᒪᕗᖅ ᐅᓄᖅᑐᓂᒃ ᓄᓇᓕᖕᓂ, ᓄᓇᕗᓕᒫᒥ, ᑲᓇᑕᒥ ᐊᒻᒪ ᐊᕕᒃᑐᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂ ᐱᓕᕆᖃᑎᒌᒃᑐᓂᑦ. ᐸᒡᕕᓵᕆᙱᖦᖢᑎᑦ ᖃᖓᑕᔾᔪᑎᓄᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᑦᑎᐊᓚᐅᕐᒪᑕ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᓕᖅᖢᑎᒡᓗ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᖅᑕᐅᓂᕆᓂᐊᖅᑕᖓᓄᑦ ᖃᔅᓯᐅᔭᕆᐊᒃᓴᖏᑦᑕ ᐱᕈᖅᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᒻᒪ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᓂᕆᔭᖏᑦ ᓂᒋᕐᒥᐅᑦ ᑕᓯᐅᔭᕐᔪᐊᖓᑕ ᓇᓄᐃᑦ ᓇᓅᖃᑎᒃᑲᓐᓂᖏᑦ 2011/2012-ᒥ. ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ, ᓄᑖᙳᕆᐊᖅᑎᑦᑐᒪᓪᓗᒍ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᖓᓂᖏᑦ ᐃᓚᓕᐅᔾᔭᐅᓯᒪᓗᑎᒃ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᕙᓪᓕᐊᓂᕆᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᓇᓅᖃᑎᒃᑲᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ, ᐊᓯᐊᓂᒃᑕᐅᖅ ᖃᖓᑕᔾᔪᑎᓄᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᑐᖁᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᐱᑕᖃᙱᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᓲᓂᑦ ᓲᕐᓗ ᑎᒥᒃᑯᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑕᖓᑦᑕ ᐱᔭᐅᒃᑲᓐᓂᖃᑦᑕᕐᓂᕆᔭᖓ. ᖃᖓᑕᔾᔪᑎᓄᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᓂᒋᕐᒥᐅᑦ ᑕᓯᐅᔭᕐᔪᐊᖓᓄᑦ ᐊᐅᒍᔅᑎ/ᓯᑎᐱᕆ 2016 ᖑᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᐱᓕᕆᐊᖑᓚᐅᖅᑐᖅ. ᑕᕝᕙᓂ ᐅᖃᕈᓐᓇᖅᓯᕗᒍᑦ ᐱᓕᕆᐊᕆᔭᐅᕈᓘᔭᓚᐅᖅᑐᓂᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᓚᐅᖅᑐᓂᑦ ᓯᑎᐱᕆ 2016 ᖑᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᐋᓐᑎᐅᕆᔫᒥ, ᓄᓇᕗᒻᒥ ᐊᒻᒪ ᑯᐸᐃᒃᒥ. ᐊᑐᓚᐅᖅᑐᒍᑦ ᕿᓂᖅᑏᖕᓂᒃ, ᑕᐅᑐᖕᓂᖅ-ᑕᐅᑐᒃᑲᓐᓂᕐᓂᖅ, ᐅᖓᓯᒌᒡᓗᒍ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᓇᔭᖅᑐᖅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᖅᑕᐅᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐃᖅᑲᓇᐃᔭᓚᐅᕐᒪᑕ. ᑕᒪᕐᒥᓕᒫᑦᑎᐊᖅ ᖃᕋᓴᐅᔭᒧᐊᖅᑎᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᐋᓐᑎᐅᕆᔫᒥ, ᑯᐸᐃᒃᒥ, ᐊᒻᒪ ᓄᓇᕗᒻᒥ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᖅᑕᐅᖕᒪᑕ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᓛᖅᑐᑦ ᐱᒋᐊᓕᓵᕐᓂᖓᓂ 2017 ᒥ, ᑕᐃᑲᙵᑦ ᑲᑎᒪᑎᑦᑎᓂᖅᑕᖃᓛᕐᒪᑦ ᓄᓇᕘᑉ ᓄᓇᓕᖁᑎᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᒻᒪ ᐊᓯᖏᑦ ᐱᓕᕆᕝᕕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᒃᓯᒪᕗᑦ. Page 2 of 14

3 Project Leads for the Ontario/Nunavut portion Section 1- Contact Information Sub-section Government Department and Contact Information Name of Department GN Department of Environment//Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Project Co-Leader Project Co-Leader Contact name Markus Dyck Martyn Obbard Position (within department) Polar Bear Biologist II Research Scientist 4 Address Department of Environment Box 209 Igloolik, NU Wildlife Research and Monitoring Section DNA Building, Trent Univ East Bank Dr. Peterborough, ON Postal Code X0A 0L0 K9L 0G2 Primary telephone number (867) (705) Secondary telephone number N/A N/A Fax (867) (705) Address mdyck1@gov.nu.ca martyn.obbard@ontario.ca Page 3 of 14

4 BACKGROUND The SH polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species range (Obbard and Middle 2012), and based on capture-recapture studies remained stable in abundance between 1986 and 2005 (Obbard 2008). However, declines in body condition (Obbard et al. 2006) and survival (Obbard et al. 2007) were documented during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. Duration of sea ice in SH has declined by about 10 days/decade so bears now spend a month longer on land than they did in 1980 and body condition continues to decline (Obbard et al. 2016). Current harvest levels appear to be sustainable, but it is important to obtain a current population abundance estimate in order to ensure that quotas are justified and trade opportunities are not constrained. INTRODUCTION Results of intensive capture-recapture studies conducted in the Ontario mainland in and suggested that abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation was unchanged in that 20-year period (Obbard 2008). The mean population size for for the Ontario mainland was 634 bears (95% CI = ). The mean population size from for the same geographic area was 673 bears (95% CI = ) (Obbard et al. 2007, Obbard 2008). Modelaveraged survival estimates provided weak evidence for a decline in total apparent survival of all age and sex classes between and , although sampling variation was large and these estimates could have reflected sampling error (Obbard et al. 2007). Nonetheless, a decline in survival rates was consistent with the hypothesis that the SH population was under stress as suggested by declines in body condition (Obbard et al. 2006). Obbard (2008) suggested that such declines would eventually have negative demographic consequences because of the high sensitivity of population growth rate for polar bears to changes in adult female survival. Because of the conflicting information on declines in body condition and survival but no declines in abundance combined with the view of traditional knowledge holders that the population was stable or increasing, a comprehensive aerial survey of the entire range of the SH subpopulation (i.e., including the Ontario mainland, islands in James Bay, and the Québec coastline and nearshore islands) was conducted in 2011 and 2012 (Obbard et al. 2015). The abundance estimate from the comprehensive aerial survey (conducted on the Ontario mainland and Akimiski Island in 2011, and on the Québec coastline and nearshore islands and on the islands in James Bay in 2012) was 943 bears (95% CI ). Results from the 2011/2012 aerial survey and the two capture-recapture studies conducted in and suggest that abundance in SH has remained stable over about the last thirty years. Nevertheless, both duration of sea ice within the bounds of SH (Hochheim and Barber 2014) and body condition of bears (Obbard et al. 2016) have declined over the same period, and duration of sea ice is expected to continue to decline in Hudson Bay in the future (Castro de la Guardia et al. 2013). By Page 4 of 14

5 2012, bears in SH were spending 30 days longer on land on average than bears did in 1980 and this was linked to declines in body condition in all sex and age classes (Obbard et al. 2016). In that context, a new aerial survey of the entire range of the SH was repeated in September 2016 following generally the same protocol as the 2011/2012 survey. The 2016 aerial survey of SH was completed immediately following a survey of the Western Hudson Bay subpopulation conducted by the Nunavut Department of Environment in August 2016 hence enabling comparisons between the two neighbouring subpopulations that occur in the southern portions of Hudson Bay. OBJECTIVES Our project objectives are to: 1) Design and implement a comprehensive aerial survey of the SH polar bear subpopulation in coastal and mainland Ontario, islands in James Bay, mainland coastal Québec, and offshore as well as nearshore islands in eastern Hudson Bay in September ) Estimate the current population size and composition of the SH polar bear subpopulation. 3) Compare a new estimate of abundance with the one derived during the 2011/2012 study in order to gain insight into population trend and status in SH and to adjust, as needed, allowable harvest level. APPLICATION OF THE RESULTS 1) Collected data on polar bear abundance will be used to further inform polar bear harvest management for this shared subpopulation (a priority of the NWMB, the GN, Ontario MNRF, Québec MFFP, and Makivik) by providing a new abundance estimate using an alternative research technique. 2) In addition, the data will form the basis for: (a) TAH recommendations, (b) development of management plans, (c) inter-jurisdictional discussions, and (d) updating status reports for SH at the territorial, national and international levels (e.g., Canadian Species at Risk Act, COSEWIC status, PBTC and PBSG assessments). Page 5 of 14

6 STUDY AREA The current population boundaries for SH were based on reconnaissance surveys, anecdotal sampling of local knowledge, and political boundaries (Lunn et al. 1998). SH boundaries were reviewed based on tag returns of harvested bears, mark-recapture studies, and VHF telemetry (Lunn et al. 2010), and also by recent genetic studies (Crompton et al. 2008, Peacock et al. 2015). The boundaries were confirmed by analysis of satellite telemetry data (Obbard and Middel 2012). SH covers much of eastern and southern Hudson Bay and all of James Bay--an area of about 465,000 km 2. The management unit includes about 1270 km of Ontario coastline and about 1731 km of the coastline of Québec plus inland areas where bears are known to construct maternity dens (Appendix 1). PROJECT DESIGN - FIELD ACTIVITIES DURING SEPTEMBER Helicopter survey of Québec coast and coastal inland transects The methodology of the survey was slightly modified compared to the 2012 aerial survey following consultation with Inuit representatives to further take into consideration input from traditional knowledge (Hébert et al, 2016). While the coverage of the coastline and nearshore islands remained more or less the same as in 2012, the Québec mainland coverage was increased to include inland habitats which were believed to be occasionally used by polar bears in late summer. A series of 20-km inland transects, oriented perpendicular to the coastline and spaced 6 km apart, was flown along the coastline, starting from Long Island/Pointe Louis XIV up to north of Inukjuak, except for the Lake Tasiujaq area (Guillaume-Delisle) where the whole lake shoreline was surveyed instead of covering extensive open water areas. All nearshore islands were comprehensively surveyed as well as most of the Québec coastline. The sampling of this section was conducted from AStar 350 BA helicopter, flown at a target above ground level (AGL) altitude of 150 m (500 ft) and a groundspeed of approximately 150km/hr ( knots). The protocol enabled the simultaneous collection of data for both sight-resight (double-observer) and distance sampling analyses. We implemented a double observer platform in which teams of front and rear observers (each with two observers) worked independently to sight polar bears. A partition was constructed to ensure that sightings by the front team did not cue rear observers, and sightings were only announced after both teams were afforded a full opportunity to spot a bear. We defined a group (hereafter cluster) of bears as individuals whose sightings were non-independent (i.e., spotting one bear led to the observation of others; e.g., family groups comprised of an adult female and 1 or more dependent young). For each sighting, we recorded the number of bears in a cluster, the bear s activity (e.g., running, sitting) when first spotted, we estimated field age class (adult, twoyear-old, yearling, cub-of-the-year), body condition (1-5), and other covariates that could affect detection probabilities. These covariates included vegetation Page 6 of 14

7 height within a 30-m radius (<1 m, 1 3 m, >3 m), vegetation density at the same spatial scale (1 = sparse tundra, 2 = moderate, 3 = dense), visibility (1 = poor [e.g., dense fog or rain], 2 = fair [e.g., light fog, light rain, overcast, excessive glare], 3 = excellent [e.g., clear and sunny, partly cloudy]). We used GPSs to record flight paths (point every 5 seconds) and bear locations. The team consisted of four observers at all times. Two representatives from the Ministère des forêts, de la faune et des parcs (G. Szor and C. Jutras), one Inuit representative from Makivik (B. Ford) and the fourth observer was the helicopter pilot (C. Blondin). This section of the survey was conducted from 6-13 September. We surveyed progressively northward from Pointe Louis XIV to north of Inukjuak except for a small section north of Umiujaq which was skipped due to bad weather conditions and completed on the last surveying day. Excluding all ferrying flights, we flew a total of 32 hours and surveyed a total of 5,126 km, including 3,181 km on inland transects, 1,452 km on nearshore islands and 492 km of coastline. While many sections of the coastline were covered several times during ferrying flights, only the first surveying occasion was included in the survey effort calculation. We observed a total of 4 polar bears in this section of the survey, including 2 single adults and one adult female accompanied by a yearling, all of them on nearshore islands. Several observations of other species were made including 592 muskox, 73 black bears, 71 caribou, 19 belugas, 2 wolves and 6 moose. Bear dens were also identified but were believed to be black bear dens because of their location and/or signs of black bear presence. 2. Fixed-wing survey of islands in James Bay We comprehensively surveyed the islands in James Bay (except for Akimiski Island; see below) on 13 September 2016 using an Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (OMNRF) Twin Otter with 2 pilots (R. Seguin and E. Bergmann) and 4 observers (M. Obbard, D. Holtby, K. Middel and L. Walton) in the rear of the aircraft. Pilots did not contribute to the count, nor did they alert observers to bears seen by them. An opaque screen was erected between front and rear observers and data were recorded using the doubleobserver protocol as described in the project proposal. When bears were sighted we recorded the same covariates mentioned in section 1 above and data were entered immediately onto a field computer. The aircraft flew at a planned height of m AGL and at a planned speed of knots. We flew a total of 9.6 hours including ferries from Timmins to Moosonee and return. Raw counts were a total of 44 bears, including cubs and yearlings. Of note, we documented what we believe to be the farthest south record of denning of a polar bear when we Page 7 of 14

8 observed a pregnant female excavating a den on Trodeley Island. We also observed denned pregnant females on both South Twin and North Twin Islands. 3. Fixed-wing survey of islands in eastern Hudson Bay This portion of the project was conducted from September, including ferry from Timmins-Sanikiluaq and Sanikiluaq-Timmins on 14 and 19 September respectively. Islands in eastern Hudson Bay were surveyed from September. We flew a total of 28.1 hours, including 20.3 hours on transect and surveyed a total of 4,236.4 km on the Belcher Islands and surrounding offshore islands including the Ottawa, Sleeper and King George island complexes. An opaque screen was erected between front and rear observers and data were recorded using a double-observer protocol. Raw counts were 38 bears on the Ottawa Islands and 11 bears in the vicinity of the Belcher and Split Islands. The coverage and methodology for the eastern Hudson Bay offshore islands was identical to the 2012 survey except for a small area which was added in the total coverage of the Belcher Islands region following input from Hunters and Trappers Organisation of Sanikiluaq. A twin-engine platform was required to access the offshore islands in Hudson Bay, so this area was surveyed from an OMNRF Twin Otter. The fixed-wing aircraft flew at an AGL altitude of about m ( ft) and a groundspeed of 150 km / hr (100 knots).we surveyed the Belcher Islands, located in southeastern Hudson Bay, using a combination of overland, perpendicular transects and coastal contours, which facilitated sampling about 50% of the shoreline. We comprehensively surveyed other islands in eastern Hudson Bay such as the Ottawa and Sleeper Islands. Protocols again enabled the simultaneous collection of data for both sight-resight (double observer) and distance sampling analyses as in the first section of the survey. However, for the distance sampling analysis, since the exact position of the bears could not be recorded with the fixed-wing aircraft, a clinometer was used to measure the angle from the plane to the bear, when perpendicular to the bear, to estimate its distance. The same information as in the first section was recorded for each bear sighting. The team for this part of the survey consisted of four dedicated observers (2 front, 2 rear) and a data recorder at all times. Additional passengers were also present in the aircraft to be available to replace any observer if needed. Participants included two representatives from the Ministère des forêts, de la faune et des parcs (G. Szor and C. Jutras), one Inuit representative from Makivik (B. Ford), one Inuit representative from the Inukjuak HFTA (B. Nowkawalk), two Inuit representatives from the Sanikiluaq HTO (C. Takataq and A. Puasi Ippak), one representative from the Nunavut Department of Environment (Conservation Officer D. Qavvik), and the two pilots (R. Seguin and E. Bergman). Page 8 of 14

9 4. Helicopter survey of Ontario mainland, offshore islands, and Akimiski Island This portion of the survey was conducted from September with ferries on 14 and 26 September and actual survey flying September. The helicopter flew at a planned altitude of 130 m AGL and a speed of knots. Data were recorded using a double-observer protocol for the high-density coastal transects, and following a distance sampling protocol for inland transects perpendicular to the coast. An opaque screen was erected between front and rear observers. The helicopter pilot was one of the front observers. When we sighted bears (Fig. 1, Fig. 2), we recorded covariates as described above, and data were recorded immediately on a field computer (Fig. 3). The field crew included D. Holtby (pilot) and M. Obbard, K. Middel, and L. Walton (observers). In addition, during the portion of the survey based out of Fort Severn, an additional observer participated Paul Burke, Chief of Washaho First Nation. We flew a total of 80.6 hours on this portion of the survey. 5. Data analysis Analysis is underway and being conducted by Seth Stapleton, University of Minnesota. Preliminary estimates are expected by late January SCHEDULE The project is currently on track with the original proposed schedule. ANTICIPATED OUTPUTS, 2017 Aerial survey-derived abundance estimate for SH and comparison with past survey results Written reports and oral presentations for SH community consultations addressing research results Interim and annual research and financial reports as required by the NWMB and other funding organizations Interim and annual research and financial reports as required by the GN Final written research reports and consultations with SH communities Annual report to the Canadian Polar Bear Technical Committee Professional presentations at conferences and meetings Page 9 of 14

10 PARTNERS GN Department of Environment Environment and Climate Change Canada Hunters and Trappers Organizations in Nunavut Québec Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs Makivik Corporation Nunavik Hunting Fishing Trapping Association Nunavut Wildlife Management Board Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Nunavik Marine Region Wildlife Board Eeyou Marine Region Wildlife Board Literature Cited Castro de la Guardia, L., A.E. Derocher, P.G. Myers, A.D. Terwisscha van Scheltinga, and N.J. Lunn Future sea ice conditions in Western Hudson Bay and consequences for polar bears in the 21st century. Global Change Biology 19: Hochheim, K.P. and D.G. Barber An update on the ice climatology of the Hudson Bay system. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research 46: Obbard, M.E Southern Hudson Bay polar bear project, : Final report. Wildlife Research and Development Section, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Peterborough, ON. 64 p. Obbard, M.E., M.R.L. Cattet, E.J. Howe, K.R. Middel, E.J. Newton, G.B. Kolenosky, K.F. Abraham and C.J Greenwood Trends in body condition in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in relation to changes in sea ice. Arctic Science 2: Obbard, M. E., M. R. L. Cattet, T. Moody, L. R. Walton, D. Potter, J. Inglis, and C. Chenier Temporal trends in the body condition of Southern Hudson Bay polar bears. Applied Research and Development Branch, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Sault Ste. Marie, ON. Climate Change Research Information Note, No p. Obbard, M. E., T. L. McDonald, E. J. Howe, E. V. Regehr, and E. S. Richardson Polar bear population status in southern Hudson Bay, Canada. U. S. Geological Survey Administrative Report. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA. 34 p. Page 10 of 14

11 Obbard, M.E., S. Stapleton, K.R. Middel, I. Thibault, V. Brodeur, and C. Jutras Estimating abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation using aerial surveys, 2011 and Polar Biology 38: Page 11 of 14

12 Appendix 1 Fig. 1. Proposed flight lines for the coastal contour transects along the Ontario/Québec coast and near-shore islands, and offshore islands in the southern Hudson Bay study area for the 2016 survey. Page 12 of 14

13 Appendix 2 Fig. 1. Adult male polar bear observed 18 September 2016 during the helicopter-based aerial survey of the Ontario mainland. Covariates recorded included: vegetation height 13 m, and vegetation density = 3. Fig. 2. Family group of adult female polar bear and yearling observed 24 September 2016 during the helicopter-based aerial survey of the Ontario mainland. Covariates recorded included: vegetation height < 1m, and vegetation density 1. Page 13 of 14

14 Fig. 3. Observer K. Middel enters data on field computer following a bear sighting during the helicopter-based survey of the Ontario mainland. Note the opaque screen erected between front and rear observers in the helicopter. Page 14 of 14