Nancy N. Soreide NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA. J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, H. Wiggins and and J. Calder

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1 Nancy N. Soreide NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, H. Wiggins and and J. Calder ARCUS State of the Arctic Meeting, March 16-19, 2010

2 Communicating Changes in Arctic Environment The international Arctic Sea Ice Outlook A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice minimum. The Arctic Report Card A concise, scientifically credible and accessible source of information on recent changes in the Arctic. Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global Impacts Summarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader broader audience, beyond the science literature.

3 Sea Ice Outlook A community-wide summary of expected September Arctic sea ice minimum. Reports issued monthly throughout summer. Synthesize community-wide estimates Scientific rationale of the range of estimates of expected minimum of sea ice Not formal predictions for Arctic sea ice extent

4 All Outlook projected values for September 2009 were less than the observed value But most were within the range of uncertainty

5 Sea Ice Extent Although there was more sea ice in September 2009 than in 2007 The fall freezeup into November for 2009 matches that of 2007.

6 The slow freezeup that was seen in satellite observations of Arctic sea ice extent is also seen in 2009 photos Chukchi Sea, September 30, 2009

7 Arctic Report Card Tracks recent environmental changes Updated annually

8 Warming of the Arctic continues to be widespread, and in some cases, dramatic. Linkages between air, land, sea, and biology are evident. Red boxes: Consistent evidence of warning Yellow boxes: Many indications of warming

9 Atmosphere Higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes Atmosphere Large scale wind patterns impacted by loss of summer sea ice

10 Biology, Ocean and Land Show many indications of warming Biology High Arctic species impacted by loss of sea ice Land Increased runoff in Siberia, less snow in N. America Ocean Warming and freshening of upper ocean linked to new ice-free areas

11 Sea Ice, Atmosphere, Greenland Consistent evidence of warming Sea Ice Multi-year sea ice is being replaced by first year sea ice Atmosphere Large scale wind patterns impacted by loss of summer sea ice Cumulative annual area changes for 34 of the widest Greenland ice sheet marine-terminating outlets. Greenland Ice sheet loss continues

12 Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global Impacts Summarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader audience References 1 Wang, M., and J.E. Overland (2009): A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07502, doi: /2009GL Overland, J.E., and M. Wang (2010): Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane (2009): Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi: /2008GL Strey, S.T., W. Chapman, and J. Walsh (2009): Effects Of An Extreme Arctic Sea Ice Minimum On the Northern Hemisphere Atmosphere During Late Autumn and Early Winter:, Eos Trans. Eos Trans. AGU, 90(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C41A Schweiger, A.J., Lindsay, R.W., Vavrus, S., and J.A. Francis (2008): Relationships between Arctic sea ice and clouds during autumn. J. Climate, 21, Serreze, M.C., Barrett, A.P., Stroeve, J.C., Kindig, D.N., and M.M. Holland (2009): The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification. The Cryosphere, 3, Holland, M.M., C.M. Bitz, and B. Tremblay (2006): Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23503, doi: /2006gl Budikova, D. (2009): Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review. Global Planet. Change, 68(3), Francis, J.A., W. Chan, D.J. Leathers, J.R. Miller, and D.E. Veron (2009): Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi: /2009GL

13 Sea Ice

14 Heat

15 Impacts

16 ! A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice minimum.! Reports are released monthly throughout the summer.! Scientifically credible, annually-updated website designed for managers, scientists and citizens! Peer-reviewed by topical experts of the Climate Experts Group (AMAP) of the Arctic Council.! Summarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader broader audience