Contributions to The State of Climate 2004 Recent Greenland climate variability and consequences to ice sheet mass balance
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1 Contributions to The State of Climate 2004 Recent Greenland climate variability and consequences to ice sheet mass balance Jason E. Box AMS Committee on Polar Meteorology Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA Coastal Station Temperature Records Coastal station temperature records around Greenland indicate warming trends since the early 1980s that are large in context of longer term records ( ) (Figure 1). This recent warming has brought once anomalously cold Greenland regional temperatures into sync with the global warming pattern. Considering the last 55-year period ( ) when data are available from a collection of stations around the circumference of the ice sheet, the years 2004 and 2003 were among if not the warmest on record (Table 1). The 1930s and 1940s also represent a warm period. At Tasiilaq since 1895, however, 2003 ranks 1 st and 2004 ranks 9 th warmest on this 110-year record. For the same 110-year period at Nuuk, 2003 ranks 14 th and 2004 ranks 20 th. Therefore, regional variability in warming is apparently high. Nonetheless, these recent increases in temperature are coherent among the whole 15+ collection of Greenland stations. Thus warming has certainly contributed to increased rates of melting and framed the Greenland ice sheet as a significant contributor to global sea level rise (Box et al. 2004). Seasonally, the majority of warming is observed for the winter and spring seasons. Summer and autumn trends are smaller owing to suppression of positive trends from latent heat sinks during snow and ice melt periods. Nonetheless, winter warming trends affect the intensity of summer melting owing to changes in the cold-content of seasonal snow, which must be melted off before ablation of underlying ice takes place.
2 Figure 1. Southern Greenland coastal temperature records through Table 1. Ranking of 2004 and 2003 as warm years around Greenland for stations over the period Station Latitude/Longitude Region Year and Ranking as Warmest Prins Christian Sund 60.0 N, 43.2 W South 2004 (1), 2003 (2) Egedesminde 68.7 N, 52.8 W Central West 2004 (2), 2003 (1) Tasiilaq 65.6 N, 37.6 W Southeast 2004 (2), 2003 (1) Nuuk 64.2 N, 51.8 W South West 2004 (5), 2003 (7) Danmarkshavn 76.8 N, 18.7 W Northeast 2004 (9), 2003 (3)
3 Polar MM5 Data Assimilation Results The Polar version of the Fifth-Generation Penn State NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) (Bromwich et al. 2001; Cassano et al. 2001), run in data assimilation mode provides climate information for the ice-covered interior of Greenland over a longer time period and broader spatial coverage than available from automated weather stations. Annual reconstructions of 2m air temperature compare within 1 K RMSE of observations from an independent network of automatic weather stations (Steffen and Box 2001) on the inland ice. A 17-year set ( ) of Polar MM5 output therefore provides a means for assessing ice sheet melt rates, meltwater discharge, and sea level contributions, over a growing time period, as more assimilation data are incorporated. A trend of warming temperatures around Greenland that began in the early 1980s has continued though ranks behind only 1998 in terms of annual mean temperatures for the ice sheet as a whole. Spatially, warming has been concentrated along the western margin and the topographic divide of the ice sheet (Figure 2A). Maximum change in temperature exceeded 6 K annual mean anomalies indicate temperatures up to 3.6 K above the 17-year average, with no grid point over the ice sheet having a negative temperature anomaly for In concert with this warming is a widespread increase in the duration of melting (Figure 2B). In light of observations that demonstrate ice sheet dynamical flow increases when melt water is available to lubricate the bed (Zwally et al. 2002), the ice sheet flow rate would have continued to increase in 2004 and the ice sheet continues to be in a state of net mass loss with significant ~0.2 mm y -1 global eustatic sea level contributions (Box et al. 2004).
4 Figure 2. Spatial pattern of change in (A) annual temperature and (B) number of meltdays over the Greenland ice sheet in Polar MM5 data-assimilation output. Student s t-test statistical significance above the 85% (95%) confidence interval is indicated by white (black) outlined grid cells, respectively. Locations of maximum and minimum trend values are indicated by green symbols. References Box, J.E., D.H. Bromwich, L-S Bai, 2004: Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for : application of Polar MM5 mesoscale model and in-situ data, J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 109, No. D16, D16105, /2003JD Bromwich D. H., J. Cassano, T. Klein, G. Heinemann, K. Hines, K. Steffen, and J. E. Box, 2001: Mesoscale modeling of katabatic winds over Greenland with the Polar MM5, Mon. Wea. Rev., 129(9), Cassano, J., J. E. Box, D. H. Bromwich, L. Li, and K. Steffen, 2001: Verification of Polar MM5 simulations of Greenland's atmospheric circulation, J. Geophys. Res., 106(D24),
5 Steffen, K., and J.E. Box, 2001: Surface climatology of the Greenland ice sheet: Greenland climate network , J. Geophys. Res., 106(D24), 33,951-33,964. Zwally, H. J., W. Abdalati, T. Herring, K. Larson, J. Saba, and K. Steffen, 2002: Surface melt-induced acceleration of Greenland ice-sheet flow, Science, 297,
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