Contributions to The State of Climate 2004 Recent Greenland climate variability and consequences to ice sheet mass balance

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Contributions to The State of Climate 2004 Recent Greenland climate variability and consequences to ice sheet mass balance"

Transcription

1 Contributions to The State of Climate 2004 Recent Greenland climate variability and consequences to ice sheet mass balance Jason E. Box AMS Committee on Polar Meteorology Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA Coastal Station Temperature Records Coastal station temperature records around Greenland indicate warming trends since the early 1980s that are large in context of longer term records ( ) (Figure 1). This recent warming has brought once anomalously cold Greenland regional temperatures into sync with the global warming pattern. Considering the last 55-year period ( ) when data are available from a collection of stations around the circumference of the ice sheet, the years 2004 and 2003 were among if not the warmest on record (Table 1). The 1930s and 1940s also represent a warm period. At Tasiilaq since 1895, however, 2003 ranks 1 st and 2004 ranks 9 th warmest on this 110-year record. For the same 110-year period at Nuuk, 2003 ranks 14 th and 2004 ranks 20 th. Therefore, regional variability in warming is apparently high. Nonetheless, these recent increases in temperature are coherent among the whole 15+ collection of Greenland stations. Thus warming has certainly contributed to increased rates of melting and framed the Greenland ice sheet as a significant contributor to global sea level rise (Box et al. 2004). Seasonally, the majority of warming is observed for the winter and spring seasons. Summer and autumn trends are smaller owing to suppression of positive trends from latent heat sinks during snow and ice melt periods. Nonetheless, winter warming trends affect the intensity of summer melting owing to changes in the cold-content of seasonal snow, which must be melted off before ablation of underlying ice takes place.

2 Figure 1. Southern Greenland coastal temperature records through Table 1. Ranking of 2004 and 2003 as warm years around Greenland for stations over the period Station Latitude/Longitude Region Year and Ranking as Warmest Prins Christian Sund 60.0 N, 43.2 W South 2004 (1), 2003 (2) Egedesminde 68.7 N, 52.8 W Central West 2004 (2), 2003 (1) Tasiilaq 65.6 N, 37.6 W Southeast 2004 (2), 2003 (1) Nuuk 64.2 N, 51.8 W South West 2004 (5), 2003 (7) Danmarkshavn 76.8 N, 18.7 W Northeast 2004 (9), 2003 (3)

3 Polar MM5 Data Assimilation Results The Polar version of the Fifth-Generation Penn State NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) (Bromwich et al. 2001; Cassano et al. 2001), run in data assimilation mode provides climate information for the ice-covered interior of Greenland over a longer time period and broader spatial coverage than available from automated weather stations. Annual reconstructions of 2m air temperature compare within 1 K RMSE of observations from an independent network of automatic weather stations (Steffen and Box 2001) on the inland ice. A 17-year set ( ) of Polar MM5 output therefore provides a means for assessing ice sheet melt rates, meltwater discharge, and sea level contributions, over a growing time period, as more assimilation data are incorporated. A trend of warming temperatures around Greenland that began in the early 1980s has continued though ranks behind only 1998 in terms of annual mean temperatures for the ice sheet as a whole. Spatially, warming has been concentrated along the western margin and the topographic divide of the ice sheet (Figure 2A). Maximum change in temperature exceeded 6 K annual mean anomalies indicate temperatures up to 3.6 K above the 17-year average, with no grid point over the ice sheet having a negative temperature anomaly for In concert with this warming is a widespread increase in the duration of melting (Figure 2B). In light of observations that demonstrate ice sheet dynamical flow increases when melt water is available to lubricate the bed (Zwally et al. 2002), the ice sheet flow rate would have continued to increase in 2004 and the ice sheet continues to be in a state of net mass loss with significant ~0.2 mm y -1 global eustatic sea level contributions (Box et al. 2004).

4 Figure 2. Spatial pattern of change in (A) annual temperature and (B) number of meltdays over the Greenland ice sheet in Polar MM5 data-assimilation output. Student s t-test statistical significance above the 85% (95%) confidence interval is indicated by white (black) outlined grid cells, respectively. Locations of maximum and minimum trend values are indicated by green symbols. References Box, J.E., D.H. Bromwich, L-S Bai, 2004: Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for : application of Polar MM5 mesoscale model and in-situ data, J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 109, No. D16, D16105, /2003JD Bromwich D. H., J. Cassano, T. Klein, G. Heinemann, K. Hines, K. Steffen, and J. E. Box, 2001: Mesoscale modeling of katabatic winds over Greenland with the Polar MM5, Mon. Wea. Rev., 129(9), Cassano, J., J. E. Box, D. H. Bromwich, L. Li, and K. Steffen, 2001: Verification of Polar MM5 simulations of Greenland's atmospheric circulation, J. Geophys. Res., 106(D24),

5 Steffen, K., and J.E. Box, 2001: Surface climatology of the Greenland ice sheet: Greenland climate network , J. Geophys. Res., 106(D24), 33,951-33,964. Zwally, H. J., W. Abdalati, T. Herring, K. Larson, J. Saba, and K. Steffen, 2002: Surface melt-induced acceleration of Greenland ice-sheet flow, Science, 297,

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio JP2.14 ON ADAPTING A NEXT-GENERATION MESOSCALE MODEL FOR THE POLAR REGIONS* Keith M. Hines 1 and David H. Bromwich 1,2 1 Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University,

More information

EVALUATION OF ANTARCTIC MESOSCALE PREDICTION SYSTEM (AMPS) FORECASTS FOR DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERNS

EVALUATION OF ANTARCTIC MESOSCALE PREDICTION SYSTEM (AMPS) FORECASTS FOR DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERNS EVALUATION OF ANTARCTIC MESOSCALE PREDICTION SYSTEM (AMPS) FORECASTS FOR DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERNS John J. Cassano * University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado Luna M. Rodriguez- Manzanet University

More information

Sep May Ppt Anomaly (N = 60)

Sep May Ppt Anomaly (N = 60) balance (annual net balance and its summer/winter components) measures how climate affects the health of Arctic glaciers. As most 2007 08 measurements are not yet available, we report results for the 2006

More information

Development and Validation of Polar WRF

Development and Validation of Polar WRF Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Development and Validation of Polar WRF David H. Bromwich 1,2, Keith M. Hines 1, and Le-Sheng Bai 1 1 Polar

More information

Arctic System Reanalysis

Arctic System Reanalysis Arctic System Reanalysis David. H. Bromwich 1,2, and Keith M. Hines 1 1 Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, USA 2 Atmospheric Sciences Program, Department of

More information

Polar Portal Season Report 2016

Polar Portal Season Report 2016 Polar Portal Season Report 2016 Less ice both on land and at sea This year s report is the fourth since the Polar Portal was launched, and as an introduction, we have chosen to take a look at the trends

More information

Climate Regimes of the Arctic

Climate Regimes of the Arctic Climate Regimes of the Arctic The climate of Greenland, recent changes and the ice sheet mass balance Map of Greenland, showing elevation and the location of GC- Net automatic weather stations (+), expedition

More information

Development and Testing of Polar WRF *

Development and Testing of Polar WRF * Development and Testing of Polar WRF * David H. Bromwich, Keith M. Hines and Le-Sheng Bai Polar Meteorology Group Byrd Polar Research Center The Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio *Supported by NSF,

More information

(ii) Coastal surface air temperatures Warm (positive) anomalies predominated in 2007, relative to the last 50-yr period ( ), when con- S95

(ii) Coastal surface air temperatures Warm (positive) anomalies predominated in 2007, relative to the last 50-yr period ( ), when con- S95 Fig. 5.15. (top) Time series of Northern Hemisphere SCA derived from passive microwave (purple/green) and NOAA snow charts (orange), and (bottom) SCA departures from monthly means, 1978 2007. to use changes

More information

Benchmarking Polar WRF in the Antarctic *

Benchmarking Polar WRF in the Antarctic * Benchmarking Polar WRF in the Antarctic * David H. Bromwich 1,2, Elad Shilo 1,3, and Keith M. Hines 1 1 Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA

More information

Climate Regimes of the Arctic

Climate Regimes of the Arctic Climate Regimes of the Arctic The climate of Greenland Map of Greenland, showing elevation and the location of GC- Net automatic weather stations (+), expedition stations (x), and coastal settlements (o)

More information

APPENDIX B PHYSICAL BASELINE STUDY: NORTHEAST BAFFIN BAY 1

APPENDIX B PHYSICAL BASELINE STUDY: NORTHEAST BAFFIN BAY 1 APPENDIX B PHYSICAL BASELINE STUDY: NORTHEAST BAFFIN BAY 1 1 By David B. Fissel, Mar Martínez de Saavedra Álvarez, and Randy C. Kerr, ASL Environmental Sciences Inc. (Feb. 2012) West Greenland Seismic

More information

Brita Horlings

Brita Horlings Knut Christianson Brita Horlings brita2@uw.edu https://courses.washington.edu/ess431/ Natural Occurrences of Ice: Distribution and environmental factors of seasonal snow, sea ice, glaciers and permafrost

More information

Arctic System Reanalysis Depiction of Arctic Atmospheric Circulation

Arctic System Reanalysis Depiction of Arctic Atmospheric Circulation Arctic System Reanalysis Depiction of Arctic Atmospheric Circulation David H. Bromwich A.B. Wilson, L.-S. Bai, G.W.K. Moore, K.M. Hines, S.-H. Wang, W. Kuo, Z. Liu, H.-C. Lin, T.-K. Wee, M. Barlage, M.C.

More information

Coastal Antarctic polynyas: A coupled process requiring high model resolution in the ocean and atmosphere

Coastal Antarctic polynyas: A coupled process requiring high model resolution in the ocean and atmosphere Coastal Antarctic polynyas: A coupled process requiring high model resolution in the ocean and atmosphere Mike Dinniman and John Klinck Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography Old Dominion University

More information

Polar Portal Season Report 2013

Polar Portal Season Report 2013 Polar Portal Season Report 2013 All in all, 2013 has been a year with large melting from both the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Arctic sea ice but not nearly as large as the record-setting year of 2012.

More information

Impact of Eurasian spring snow decrement on East Asian summer precipitation

Impact of Eurasian spring snow decrement on East Asian summer precipitation Impact of Eurasian spring snow decrement on East Asian summer precipitation Renhe Zhang 1,2 Ruonan Zhang 2 Zhiyan Zuo 2 1 Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University 2 Chinese Academy of Meteorological

More information

J8.4 TRENDS OF U.S. SNOWFALL AND SNOW COVER IN A WARMING WORLD,

J8.4 TRENDS OF U.S. SNOWFALL AND SNOW COVER IN A WARMING WORLD, J8.4 TRENDS OF U.S. SNOWFALL AND SNOW COVER IN A WARMING WORLD, 1948-2008 Richard R. Heim Jr. * NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina 1. Introduction The Intergovernmental Panel

More information

Outline: 1) Extremes were triggered by anomalous synoptic patterns 2) Cloud-Radiation-PWV positive feedback on 2007 low SIE

Outline: 1) Extremes were triggered by anomalous synoptic patterns 2) Cloud-Radiation-PWV positive feedback on 2007 low SIE Identifying Dynamical Forcing and Cloud-Radiative Feedbacks Critical to the Formation of Extreme Arctic Sea-Ice Extent in the Summers of 2007 and 1996 Xiquan Dong University of North Dakota Outline: 1)

More information

SLIDES: Weather and Climate Extremes in a Future Warmer Climate

SLIDES: Weather and Climate Extremes in a Future Warmer Climate University of Colorado Law School Colorado Law Scholarly Commons Climate Change and the Future of the American West: Exploring the Legal and Policy Dimensions (Summer Conference, June 7-9) Getches-Wilkinson

More information

Alaska Statewide Climate Summary June 2018

Alaska Statewide Climate Summary June 2018 Alaska Statewide Climate Summary June 2018 The following report provides an overview of temperature and precipitation for June 2018. The report is based on preliminary data from selected weather stations

More information

Arctic System Reanalysis Provides Highresolution Accuracy for Arctic Studies

Arctic System Reanalysis Provides Highresolution Accuracy for Arctic Studies Arctic System Reanalysis Provides Highresolution Accuracy for Arctic Studies David H. Bromwich, Aaron Wilson, Lesheng Bai, Zhiquan Liu POLAR2018 Davos, Switzerland Arctic System Reanalysis Regional reanalysis

More information

2015: A YEAR IN REVIEW F.S. ANSLOW

2015: A YEAR IN REVIEW F.S. ANSLOW 2015: A YEAR IN REVIEW F.S. ANSLOW 1 INTRODUCTION Recently, three of the major centres for global climate monitoring determined with high confidence that 2015 was the warmest year on record, globally.

More information

Errata. Version 11/07/2014 1

Errata. Version 11/07/2014 1 Version 11/7/214 1 Climate Change 213: The Physical Science Basis The Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Page Item Correction ii Frontmatter Insert the following text: The

More information

Deke Arndt, Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

Deke Arndt, Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA s National Climatic Data Center Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., Director, NOAA s National Climatic Data Center, and Chair of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research Peter Thorne, PhD, Senior Scientist, Cooperative Institute for Climate and

More information

Ice sheets of West Antarctica are warming fast. West Antarctic Ice Sheet warming twice earlier estimate

Ice sheets of West Antarctica are warming fast. West Antarctic Ice Sheet warming twice earlier estimate Ice sheets of West Antarctica are warming fast 02 January 2013 Magazine issue 2898. Subscribe and save For similar stories, visit the Climate Change Topic Guide THE ice sheets of West Antarctica are warming

More information

Impacts of Climate Change on Autumn North Atlantic Wave Climate

Impacts of Climate Change on Autumn North Atlantic Wave Climate Impacts of Climate Change on Autumn North Atlantic Wave Climate Will Perrie, Lanli Guo, Zhenxia Long, Bash Toulany Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS Abstract

More information

Activity 2.2: Recognizing Change (Observation vs. Inference)

Activity 2.2: Recognizing Change (Observation vs. Inference) Activity 2.2: Recognizing Change (Observation vs. Inference) Teacher Notes: Evidence for Climate Change PowerPoint Slide 1 Slide 2 Introduction Image 1 (Namib Desert, Namibia) The sun is on the horizon

More information

Chapter outline. Reference 12/13/2016

Chapter outline. Reference 12/13/2016 Chapter 2. observation CC EST 5103 Climate Change Science Rezaul Karim Environmental Science & Technology Jessore University of science & Technology Chapter outline Temperature in the instrumental record

More information

The weather in Iceland 2012

The weather in Iceland 2012 The Icelandic Meteorological Office Climate summary 2012 published 9.1.2013 The weather in Iceland 2012 Climate summary Sunset in Reykjavík 24th April 2012 at 21:42. View towards west from the balcony

More information

Terrestrial Snow Cover: Properties, Trends, and Feedbacks. Chris Derksen Climate Research Division, ECCC

Terrestrial Snow Cover: Properties, Trends, and Feedbacks. Chris Derksen Climate Research Division, ECCC Terrestrial Snow Cover: Properties, Trends, and Feedbacks Chris Derksen Climate Research Division, ECCC Outline Three Snow Lectures: 1. Why you should care about snow: Snow and the cryosphere Classes of

More information

High-Resolution Regional Climate Simulations over Iceland Using Polar MM5*

High-Resolution Regional Climate Simulations over Iceland Using Polar MM5* DECEMBER 2005 BROMWICH ET AL. 3527 High-Resolution Regional Climate Simulations over Iceland Using Polar MM5* DAVID H. BROMWICH Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, and Atmospheric Sciences

More information

An Assessment of Contemporary Global Reanalyses in the Polar Regions

An Assessment of Contemporary Global Reanalyses in the Polar Regions An Assessment of Contemporary Global Reanalyses in the Polar Regions David H. Bromwich Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center and Atmospheric Sciences Program, Department of Geography The

More information

XVI. Warming and the cryosphere

XVI. Warming and the cryosphere XVI. Warming and the cryosphere review temperature from thermometers, satellites, glacier lengths and boreholes all show significant warming in the 20th C+ reconstruction of past temperatures from corals,

More information

Unseasonable weather conditions in Japan in August 2014

Unseasonable weather conditions in Japan in August 2014 Unseasonable weather conditions in Japan in August 2014 Summary of analysis by the TCC Advisory Panel on Extreme Climatic Events In an extraordinary session held at the Japan Meteorological Agency on 3

More information

Exploring seasonal accumulation bias in a west central Greenland ice core with observed and reanalyzed data

Exploring seasonal accumulation bias in a west central Greenland ice core with observed and reanalyzed data Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 60, No. 224, 2014 doi: 10.3189/2014JoG13J233 1065 Exploring seasonal accumulation bias in a west central Greenland ice core with observed and reanalyzed data Stacy E. PORTER,

More information

Polar WRF. Polar Meteorology Group Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center The Ohio State University Columbus Ohio

Polar WRF. Polar Meteorology Group Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center The Ohio State University Columbus Ohio Polar WRF David H. Bromwich, Keith M. Hines, Lesheng Bai and Sheng-Hung Wang Polar Meteorology Group Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center The Ohio State University Columbus Ohio Byrd Polar and Climate

More information

The Northern Hemisphere Sea ice Trends: Regional Features and the Late 1990s Change. Renguang Wu

The Northern Hemisphere Sea ice Trends: Regional Features and the Late 1990s Change. Renguang Wu The Northern Hemisphere Sea ice Trends: Regional Features and the Late 1990s Change Renguang Wu Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing World Conference on Climate Change

More information

Observed Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty

Observed Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty Observed Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty David R. Easterling National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina Overview Some examples of observed climate

More information

Ice sheet freshwater forcing

Ice sheet freshwater forcing Jan Lenaerts Utrecht University University of Colorado Ice sheet freshwater forcing Photo: Reijmer, 2011 Sea level meeting 5 to ~6 pm, South Bay Goal: Sea level rise and its impacts on coastal populations

More information

Very high resolution regional climate model simulations over Greenland: Identifying added value

Very high resolution regional climate model simulations over Greenland: Identifying added value JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 117,, doi:10.1029/2011jd016267, 2012 Very high resolution regional climate model simulations over Greenland: Identifying added value Philippe Lucas-Picher, 1,2 Maria

More information

1.2 THE LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM CLIMATE OVER THE LAURENTIDE ICE SHEET: HIGH-RESOLUTION SIMULATIONS USING POLAR MM5

1.2 THE LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM CLIMATE OVER THE LAURENTIDE ICE SHEET: HIGH-RESOLUTION SIMULATIONS USING POLAR MM5 1.2 THE LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM CLIMATE OVER THE LAURENTIDE ICE SHEET: HIGH-RESOLUTION SIMULATIONS USING POLAR MM5 David H. Bromwich 1,2, E. Richard Toracinta 1, Robert Oglesby 3, Helin Wei 4, James Fastook

More information

Mozambique. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1

Mozambique. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Mozambique C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk

More information

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Presented by R.K. Pachauri, IPCC Chair and Bubu Jallow, WG 1 Vice Chair Nairobi, 6 February

More information

Plan for operational nowcasting system implementation in Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg, Russia)

Plan for operational nowcasting system implementation in Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg, Russia) Plan for operational nowcasting system implementation in Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg, Russia) Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg, Russia) is one of the biggest airports in the Russian Federation (150

More information

Darkening of the Greenland ice sheet due to the melt-albedo feedback observed at PROMICE weather stations

Darkening of the Greenland ice sheet due to the melt-albedo feedback observed at PROMICE weather stations Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Mar 16, 219 Darkening of the Greenland ice sheet due to the melt-albedo feedback observed at PROMICE weather stations van As, Dirk; Fausto, Robert S.; Colgan, William T.;

More information

Summer 2018 Southern Company Temperature/Precipitation Forecast

Summer 2018 Southern Company Temperature/Precipitation Forecast Scott A. Yuknis High impact weather forecasts, climate assessment and prediction. 14 Boatwright s Loop Plymouth, MA 02360 Phone/Fax 508.927.4610 Cell: 508.813.3499 ClimateImpact@comcast.net Climate Impact

More information

Early May Cut-off low and Mid-Atlantic rains

Early May Cut-off low and Mid-Atlantic rains Abstract: Early May Cut-off low and Mid-Atlantic rains By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A deep 500 hpa cutoff developed in the southern Plains on 3 May 2013. It produced a

More information

RIME: IMPROVING MULTISCALE FORECASTING OF ANTARCTIC METEOROLOGY

RIME: IMPROVING MULTISCALE FORECASTING OF ANTARCTIC METEOROLOGY RIME: IMPROVING MULTISCALE FORECASTING OF ANTARCTIC METEOROLOGY David P. Bacon*, Thomas R. Parish 1, Kenneth T. Waight III 2 Center for Atmospheric Physics, Science Applications International Corporation,

More information

SEVERE WEATHER AND FRONTS TAKE HOME QUIZ

SEVERE WEATHER AND FRONTS TAKE HOME QUIZ 1. Most of the hurricanes that affect the east coast of the United States originally form over the A) warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean in summer B) warm land of the southeastern United States in summer

More information

THE WINTER OF JUST HOW WEIRD WAS IT EXACTLY?

THE WINTER OF JUST HOW WEIRD WAS IT EXACTLY? Courtesy Reuters Buffalo New York THE WINTER OF 2013-2014 JUST HOW WEIRD WAS IT EXACTLY? Eyad Atallah and John Gyakum McGill University Some Headlines Certainly for large portions of southern Canada and

More information

Ocean variability contributing to basal melt rate near the ice front of Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Ocean variability contributing to basal melt rate near the ice front of Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica Ocean variability contributing to basal melt rate near the ice front of Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica Laurie Padman I. Arzeno, R.C. Beardsley, R. Limeburner, B. Owens, S.R. Springer, C.L. Stewart, M.J.M.

More information

AMAP. Climate Change in the Cryosphere: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) Assessment Summary

AMAP. Climate Change in the Cryosphere: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) Assessment Summary Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado AMAP Climate Change in the Cryosphere: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) Assessment Summary Arctic

More information

WP 4 Testing Arctic sea ice predictability in NorESM

WP 4 Testing Arctic sea ice predictability in NorESM WP 4 Testing Arctic sea ice predictability in NorESM Jens Boldingh Debernard SSPARSE Kick-off meeting 08.11.2016 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Background Inherent coupled problem Time-frame relevant

More information

The Arctic Energy Budget

The Arctic Energy Budget The Arctic Energy Budget The global heat engine [courtesy Kevin Trenberth, NCAR]. Differential solar heating between low and high latitudes gives rise to a circulation of the atmosphere and ocean that

More information

Arctic Climate Change. Glen Lesins Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science Dalhousie University Create Summer School, Alliston, July 2013

Arctic Climate Change. Glen Lesins Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science Dalhousie University Create Summer School, Alliston, July 2013 Arctic Climate Change Glen Lesins Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science Dalhousie University Create Summer School, Alliston, July 2013 When was this published? Observational Evidence for Arctic

More information

Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance : Application of Polar MM5 mesoscale model and in situ data

Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance : Application of Polar MM5 mesoscale model and in situ data JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 109,, doi:10.1029/2003jd004451, 2004 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance 1991 2000: Application of Polar MM5 mesoscale model and in situ data Jason E. Box and

More information

Recent climate of southern Greenland

Recent climate of southern Greenland Recent climate of southern Greenland Edward Hanna 1 and John Cappelen 2 1 Institute of Marine Studies, University of Plymouth 2 Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark The polar regions are

More information

Annex I to Target Area Assessments

Annex I to Target Area Assessments Baltic Challenges and Chances for local and regional development generated by Climate Change Annex I to Target Area Assessments Climate Change Support Material (Climate Change Scenarios) SWEDEN September

More information

Nonlinear atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss under different sea ice scenarios

Nonlinear atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss under different sea ice scenarios Nonlinear atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss under different sea ice scenarios Hans Chen, Fuqing Zhang and Richard Alley Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques The Pennsylvania

More information

ATOC OUR CHANGING ENVIRONMENT Class 19 (Chp 6) Objectives of Today s Class: The Cryosphere [1] Components, time scales; [2] Seasonal snow

ATOC OUR CHANGING ENVIRONMENT Class 19 (Chp 6) Objectives of Today s Class: The Cryosphere [1] Components, time scales; [2] Seasonal snow ATOC 1060-002 OUR CHANGING ENVIRONMENT Class 19 (Chp 6) Objectives of Today s Class: The Cryosphere [1] Components, time scales; [2] Seasonal snow cover, permafrost, river and lake ice, ; [3]Glaciers and

More information

Nancy N. Soreide NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA. J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, H. Wiggins and and J. Calder

Nancy N. Soreide NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA. J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, H. Wiggins and and J. Calder Nancy N. Soreide NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, H. Wiggins and and J. Calder ARCUS State of the Arctic Meeting, March 16-19, 2010 Communicating Changes in Arctic

More information

The Ice Age sequence in the Quaternary

The Ice Age sequence in the Quaternary The Ice Age sequence in the Quaternary Subdivisions of the Quaternary Period System Series Stage Age (Ma) Holocene 0 0.0117 Tarantian (Upper) 0.0117 0.126 Quaternary Ionian (Middle) 0.126 0.781 Pleistocene

More information

Today s Lecture: Land, biosphere, cryosphere (All that stuff we don t have equations for... )

Today s Lecture: Land, biosphere, cryosphere (All that stuff we don t have equations for... ) Today s Lecture: Land, biosphere, cryosphere (All that stuff we don t have equations for... ) 4 Land, biosphere, cryosphere 1. Introduction 2. Atmosphere 3. Ocean 4. Land, biosphere, cryosphere 4.1 Land

More information

A Rossby Wave Bridge from the Tropical Atlantic to West Antarctica

A Rossby Wave Bridge from the Tropical Atlantic to West Antarctica A Rossby Wave Bridge from the Tropical Atlantic to West Antarctica A Physical Explanation of the Antarctic Paradox and the Rapid Peninsula Warming Xichen Li; David Holland; Edwin Gerber; Changhyun Yoo

More information

Projection of global and regional sea level change for the 21st century

Projection of global and regional sea level change for the 21st century Projection of global and regional sea level change for the 21st century Jonathan Gregory 1,2 1 NCAS-Climate, University of Reading 2 Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter Global mean sea level rise observed

More information

ICE is less dense than water about 92% of the density of water; it floats. This is unlike the behavior of most substances, which generally are denser

ICE is less dense than water about 92% of the density of water; it floats. This is unlike the behavior of most substances, which generally are denser ICE is less dense than water about 92% of the density of water; it floats. This is unlike the behavior of most substances, which generally are denser as solids than as liquids (right). This is a result

More information

What is Climate? Understanding and predicting climatic changes are the basic goals of climatology.

What is Climate? Understanding and predicting climatic changes are the basic goals of climatology. What is Climate? Understanding and predicting climatic changes are the basic goals of climatology. Climatology is the study of Earth s climate and the factors that affect past, present, and future climatic

More information

Impacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America

Impacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America Impacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA Abstract: The mean 500 hpa flow over North America featured a trough over

More information

Assessing the Climate-Scale Variability and Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers Affecting the West Coast of North America

Assessing the Climate-Scale Variability and Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers Affecting the West Coast of North America Assessing the Climate-Scale Variability and Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers Affecting the West Coast of North America Alexander Gershunov, Tamara Shulgina, Marty Ralph, David Lavers CW3E

More information

Second Session of the Pan-Arctic Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PARCOF-2), virtual forum, October 2018

Second Session of the Pan-Arctic Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PARCOF-2), virtual forum, October 2018 Second Session of the Pan-Arctic Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PARCOF-2), virtual forum, October 2018 Consensus Statement for the Arctic Winter 2018-2019 Season Outlook Climate change in the Arctic is

More information

Prediction of Snow Water Equivalent in the Snake River Basin

Prediction of Snow Water Equivalent in the Snake River Basin Hobbs et al. Seasonal Forecasting 1 Jon Hobbs Steve Guimond Nate Snook Meteorology 455 Seasonal Forecasting Prediction of Snow Water Equivalent in the Snake River Basin Abstract Mountainous regions of

More information

Climatic Conditions Around Greenland 1995

Climatic Conditions Around Greenland 1995 NAFO Sci. Coun. Studies, 27: 39 47 Climatic Conditions Around Greenland 1995 M. Stein Institut fur Seefischerei, Palmaille 9 D-22767 Hamburg, Federal Republic of Germany Abstract The annual review of variability

More information

Climatic Conditions Around Greenland 1993

Climatic Conditions Around Greenland 1993 NFO Sci. Coun. Studies, 22: 43 49 Climatic Conditions round Greenland 1993 M. Stein Institut für Seefischerei, Palmaille 9, D 22767 Hamburg Federal Republic of Germany bstract ir temperature anomalies

More information

Polar Portal Season Report 2018

Polar Portal Season Report 2018 Polar Portal Season Report 2018 Unusual weather resulted in an atypical melting season in the Arctic The 2017-18 season in the Arctic has once again been extraordinary. A cold summer with high levels of

More information

Present And Past Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Simulations For Greenland And The Tibetan Plateau

Present And Past Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Simulations For Greenland And The Tibetan Plateau Climate Dynamics (2004) 23: 407 425 DOI 10.1007/s00382-004-0441-x T. G. D. Casal Æ J. E. Kutzbach Æ L. G. Thompson Present And Past Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Simulations For Greenland And The Tibetan Plateau

More information

Name Per Date Earth Science Climate & Insolation Test

Name Per Date Earth Science Climate & Insolation Test Name Per Date Earth Science Climate & Insolation Test 1) Which graph best represents the general relationship between latitude and average surface temperature? 2) The diagram below shows the apparent path

More information

Decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface-meltwater-induced acceleration of basal sliding

Decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface-meltwater-induced acceleration of basal sliding Decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface-meltwater-induced acceleration of basal sliding arxiv:0905.07v [physics.geo-ph] May 009 Ralf Greve Shin Sugiyama Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido

More information

Polar Weather Prediction

Polar Weather Prediction Polar Weather Prediction David H. Bromwich Session V YOPP Modelling Component Tuesday 14 July 2015 A special thanks to the following contributors: Kevin W. Manning, Jordan G. Powers, Keith M. Hines, Dan

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through

More information

Pre-Christmas Warm-up December 2013-Draft

Pre-Christmas Warm-up December 2013-Draft Pre-Christmas Warm-up 21-23 December 2013-Draft By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A large ridge over the west-central Atlantic (Fig.1) and trough moving into eastern

More information

Weather Outlook 2016: Cycles and Patterns Influencing Our Growing Season

Weather Outlook 2016: Cycles and Patterns Influencing Our Growing Season Weather Outlook 2016: Cycles and Patterns Influencing Our Growing Season Leon F. Osborne Chester Fritz Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Sciences University of North Dakota Cycle of El Niño Events

More information

Improving the representation of the Greater Arctic with ASRv2. D. H. Bromwich and many collaborators

Improving the representation of the Greater Arctic with ASRv2. D. H. Bromwich and many collaborators Improving the representation of the Greater Arctic with ASRv2 D. H. Bromwich and many collaborators 5 th International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR5) Rome, Italy 14 November 2017 Importance of an Arctic-focused

More information

TCC News 1 No. 29 Summer 2012

TCC News 1 No. 29 Summer 2012 No. 29 Summer 2012 Contents Upgrade of JMA s Supercomputer System Summary of Kosa (Aeolian dust) Events over Japan in 2012 Sea Ice in the Sea of Okhotsk for the 2011/2012 Winter Season BMKG expert visit

More information

Regional temperature, precipitation and runoff series in the Baltic countries

Regional temperature, precipitation and runoff series in the Baltic countries Regional temperature, precipitation and runoff series in the Baltic countries Jurate Kriauciuniene 1, Alvina Reihan 2, Tanya Kolcova 3, Diana Meilutyte- Barauskiene 1, Lita Lizuma 3 1 Lithuanian Energy

More information

EC-PORS III Research. Sodankylä, February Developing a Polar Prediction System

EC-PORS III Research. Sodankylä, February Developing a Polar Prediction System EC-PORS III Research Sodankylä, February 2012 Developing a Polar Prediction System Polar Prediction System - Status 1. EC-PORS I (Oct. 2009) -> initial discussions 2. WWRP/THORPEX Polar Prediction Workshop,

More information

Trends in Climate Teleconnections and Effects on the Midwest

Trends in Climate Teleconnections and Effects on the Midwest Trends in Climate Teleconnections and Effects on the Midwest Don Wuebbles Zachary Zobel Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois, Urbana November 11, 2015 Date Name of Meeting 1 Arctic

More information

Polar COAWST. Coupled Atmosphere (Land) Ocean Sea Ice Wave Sediment Transport Modeling System for Polar Regions

Polar COAWST. Coupled Atmosphere (Land) Ocean Sea Ice Wave Sediment Transport Modeling System for Polar Regions U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Polar COAWST Coupled Atmosphere (Land) Ocean Sea Ice Wave Sediment Transport Modeling System for Polar Regions David Bromwich 1, Le-Sheng Bai 1 Michael

More information

A Tutorial on Climate Change Science: The. 4 th National Climate Assessment CLIMATE SCIENCE. Don Wuebbles

A Tutorial on Climate Change Science: The. 4 th National Climate Assessment CLIMATE SCIENCE. Don Wuebbles CLIMATE SCIENCE S P E C I A L R E P O R T A Tutorial on Climate Change Science: The Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume I 4 th National Climate Assessment Don Wuebbles Department of Atmospheric Sciences

More information

Northern New England Climate: Past, Present, and Future. Basic Concepts

Northern New England Climate: Past, Present, and Future. Basic Concepts Northern New England Climate: Past, Present, and Future Basic Concepts Weather instantaneous or synoptic measurements Climate time / space average Weather - the state of the air and atmosphere at a particular

More information

ASSIMILATION OF AIRS VERSION 6 DATA IN AMPS

ASSIMILATION OF AIRS VERSION 6 DATA IN AMPS ASSIMILATION OF AIRS VERSION 6 DATA IN AMPS Jordan G. Powers, Priscilla A. Mooney, and Kevin W. Manning Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder,

More information

New Insights into the January 2016 West Antarctic Melt Event from the AWARE Campaign and Climate Model Simulations

New Insights into the January 2016 West Antarctic Melt Event from the AWARE Campaign and Climate Model Simulations New Insights into the January 2016 West Antarctic Melt Event from the AWARE Campaign and Climate Model Simulations Julien P. Nicolas 1, Andrew M. Vogelmann 2, Ryan C. Scott 3, Aaron B. Wilson 1, Maria

More information

Regional Outlook for the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas Contribution to the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook

Regional Outlook for the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas Contribution to the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook Regional Outlook for the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas Contribution to the 2018 Sea Ice Outlook 25 July 2018 Matthew Druckenmiller (National Snow and Ice Data Center, Univ. Colorado Boulder) & Hajo Eicken

More information

Percentage of normal rainfall for April 2018 Departure from average air temperature for April 2018

Percentage of normal rainfall for April 2018 Departure from average air temperature for April 2018 New Zealand Climate Update No 227, May 2018 Current climate April 2018 Overall, April 2018 was characterised by lower pressure than normal over and to the southeast of New Zealand. Unlike the first three

More information

Title. Author(s)Greve, Ralf. Issue Date Doc URL. Type. Note. File Information.

Title. Author(s)Greve, Ralf. Issue Date Doc URL. Type. Note. File Information. Title Increased future sea level rise due to rapid decay o Author(s)Greve, Ralf CitationProceedings of the First International Symposium on Issue Date 008--04 Doc URL http://hdl.handle.net/5/4868 Type

More information

Why Has the Land Memory Changed?

Why Has the Land Memory Changed? 3236 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 17 Why Has the Land Memory Changed? QI HU ANDSONG FENG Climate and Bio-Atmospheric Sciences Group, School of Natural Resource Sciences, University of Nebraska at Lincoln,

More information

Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT NESC, Saratoga, NY

Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT   NESC, Saratoga, NY Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT http://alanbetts.com NESC, Saratoga, NY March 10, 2018 Increases in Extreme Weather Last decade: lack

More information

New Zealand Climate Update No 222, November 2017 Current climate November 2017

New Zealand Climate Update No 222, November 2017 Current climate November 2017 New Zealand Climate Update No 222, November 2017 Current climate November 2017 November 2017 was characterised by higher than normal sea level pressure over New Zealand and the surrounding seas, particularly

More information

National Meteorological Library and Archive

National Meteorological Library and Archive National Meteorological Library and Archive Fact sheet No. 4 Climate of the United Kingdom Causes of the weather in the United Kingdom The United Kingdom lies in the latitude of predominately westerly

More information

Ellen L. Mecray NOAA Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region Taunton, MA

Ellen L. Mecray NOAA Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region Taunton, MA Ellen L. Mecray NOAA Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region Taunton, MA Regions of the US National Climate Assessment What we Observe: Climate changes and impacts Increasing temperature Increasingly

More information