Utilization of Forecast Models in High Temporal GOES Sounding Retrievals

Transcription

1 Utilization of Forecast Models in High Temporal GOES Sounding Retrievals Zhenglong Li, Jun Li, W. Paul Menzel, Steve Ackerman CIMSS/UW The CoRP Symposium Aug 12-13, 2008 Corvallis, OR

2 Introduction: GOES Sounder helps weather forecasting Data assimilation Raw radiances Products Nowcasting

3 GOES Sounder Product Clear-sky Radiances Layer & Total Precipitable Water Cloud-top retrievals (pressure, temperature, cloud amount) Surface skin temperature Profiles of temp & moisture Atmospheric stability indices Water Vapor Winds Operational Use within the NWS Assimilation into NCEP operational regional & global NWP models over water Assimilation into NCEP operational regional & global NWP models; display and animation within NWS AWIPS for use by forecasters at NWS WFOs & National Centers in forecasting precipitation and severe weather Assimilation into NCEP operational regional NWP models; display and animation within NWS AWIPS for use by forecasters at NWS WFOs; supplement to NWS/ASOS cloud measurements for generation of total cloud cover product at NWS/ASOS sites Image display and animation within NWS AWIPS for use by forecasters at NWS WFOs Display (SKEW-Ts) within NWS AWIPS for use by forecasters at NWS WFOs in forecasting precipitation and severe weather Image display and animation within NWS AWIPS for use by forecasters at NWS WFOs in forecasting precipitation and severe weather Image display and animation within NWS AWIPS for use by forecasters at NWS WFOs

4 Introduction: NWP forecast helps GOES sounding Retrieval Clear sky Cloudy regions Comparison/Validation GFS forecast (around 6 hours) RUC 6-h forecast ECMWF analysis

5 Introduction: GOES Sounder Spectrum O 3 H 2 O CO 2 CO 2 Window

6 Forecast provides good background for clear-sky regression retrievals Temperature Moisture Jun 2003 to Sep 2004 Collocated RAOBs over the continental US (CONUS) GFS 6-h forecast as background

7 Cloudy regression retrievals 08/2006 to 05/2007 RAOBs at SGP ARM

8 Cloudy regression retrievals in thin clouds COT <= /2006 to 05/2007 RAOBs at SGP ARM

9 Cloudy regression retrievals in low clouds CTP >= 850 hpa COT >= /2006 to 05/2007 RAOBs at SGP ARM

10 Validation using ECMWF analysis TPW(mm)

11 Validation using ECMWF analysis April :00 UTC LI TPW PW1 PW2 PW3 GFS RTVL GFS RTVL GFS RTVL GFS RTVL GFS RTVL All BIAS Clear Low Thin All RMS Clear Low Thin

12 Application of GOES Sounding to sever storm case: Texas Tornado Lifted Index indicates: 0< LI stable -3< LI <0 marginally unstable -6< LI <-3 moderately unstable -9< LI <-6 very unstable LI <-9 extreme instability LI <-6 Best chances of a severe storm

13 Application of GOES Sounding to sever storm case: Texas Tornado Lifted Index indicates: 0< LI stable -3< LI <0 marginally unstable -6< LI <-3 moderately unstable -9< LI <-6 very unstable LI <-9 extreme instability LI <-6 Best chances of a severe storm

14 Application of GOES Sounding to sever storm case: Texas Tornado Lifted Index indicates: 0< LI stable -3< LI <0 marginally unstable -6< LI <-3 moderately unstable -9< LI <-6 very unstable LI <-9 extreme instability LI <-6 Best chances of a severe storm

15 Application of GOES Sounding to sever storm case: Texas Tornado Lifted Index indicates: 0< LI stable -3< LI <0 marginally unstable -6< LI <-3 moderately unstable -9< LI <-6 very unstable LI <-9 extreme instability LI <-6 Best chances of a severe storm

16 Application of GOES Sounding to sever storm case: Texas Tornado Lifted Index indicates: 0< LI stable -3< LI <0 marginally unstable -6< LI <-3 moderately unstable -9< LI <-6 very unstable LI <-9 extreme instability LI <-6 Best chances of a severe storm

17 Application of GOES Sounding to sever storm case: Texas Tornado Lifted Index indicates: 0< LI stable -3< LI <0 marginally unstable -6< LI <-3 moderately unstable -9< LI <-6 very unstable LI <-9 extreme instability LI <-6 Best chances of a severe storm

18 Application of GOES Sounding to sever storm case: Texas Tornado Lifted Index indicates: 0< LI stable -3< LI <0 marginally unstable -6< LI <-3 moderately unstable -9< LI <-6 very unstable LI <-9 extreme instability LI <-6 Best chances of a severe storm

19 Application of GOES Sounding to sever storm case: Texas Tornado Lifted Index indicates: 0< LI stable -3< LI <0 marginally unstable -6< LI <-3 moderately unstable -9< LI <-6 very unstable LI <-9 extreme instability LI <-6 Best chances of a severe storm

20 Application of GOES Sounding to sever storm case: Texas Tornado Lifted Index indicates: 0< LI stable -3< LI <0 marginally unstable -6< LI <-3 moderately unstable -9< LI <-6 very unstable LI <-9 extreme instability LI <-6 Best chances of a severe storm

21 Application of GOES Sounding to sever storm case: Texas Tornado Lifted Index indicates: 0< LI stable -3< LI <0 marginally unstable -6< LI <-3 moderately unstable -9< LI <-6 very unstable LI <-9 extreme instability LI <-6 Best chances of a severe storm

22 Summary The GFS forecast data help provide better GOES sounding products in cloudy regions The GFS forecast data help provide extra useful nowcasting products to forecasters, especially for short-term severe storm. Thanks!