Item 13.2, Presentation on work of CIMO/OPAG-RST/IPET-OWR-1

Transcription

1 Item 13.2, Presentation on work of CIMO/OPAG-RST/IPET-OWR-1 Andreas Becker Head Precipitation Monitoring Unit and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, Department of Hydrometeorology, Deutscher Wetterdienst Member of GCOS Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate (AOPC)

2 Item 13.2, Presentation on work of IPET - OWR Background and ToR of IPET - OWR AOPC Motivation to make the climate requirement Radar based QPE: Challenges 4 Example Climate Use of Weather Radar Data 5 Essential Requirements for Radar Based CDR s

3 1 IPET-OWR Background IPET-OWR AND AOPC? WIGOS IS THE CONNECTION The idea to ultimately form an IPET-OWR was borne at the CIMO/WIGOS Exploratory Workshop on Improving Surface-based Data Quality through Improved Standardization of Procedures in Langen, Germany, December 2014, that formulated the following recommendation: CIMO and CBS Management Groups seek the support of the Inter Commission Coordination Group on WIGOS to establish a CIMO/CBS-led international coordination mechanism for weather radar systems and their data and products, which involves the participation of nations operating large weather radar networks, capitalizes on the positive experience achieved within regional cooperation mechanisms, such as OPERA and BALTRAD in Europe, and includes a strong focus on capacity development. Cg-17 (Geneva, 25 May - 12 June 2015) requested CIMO to establish a CIMO/CBSled international coordination initiative for standardization of practices and procedures for weather radar systems.

4 1 IPET-OWR Background CBS Management Group Decision 1. The CBS Management Group (CBS-MG) formally addressed the matter of intercommission coordination of radar activities at its 16th Session (CBS-MG-16, Feb, 2016, Geneva). 2. Based on the information provided, CBS-MG agreed and recommended that a single WMO weather radar coordination group should be established to take on the role of the international coordination of operational weather radar in support of all relevant application areas under the WIGOS domain. It further recommended that the coordination group should be formed as an Interprogramme Expert or Task Team under the authority of CIMO Management Group and under guidance from the relevant OPAGs in the two TCs. 3. CBS-MG requested the ICT-IOS Chair to liaise with CIMO to propose draft Terms of Reference for a CIMO IPET on WMO weather radar coordination towards their future adoption by both technical commissions.

5 1 IPET-OWR Background CIMO Management Group Decision 1. The CIMO Management Group (CBS-MG) addressed the matter at its 14th Session (CIMO-MG-14, 4-8 April, 2016, Offenbach, Germany). 2. CIMO-MG-14 agreed with the decision and recommendation of CBS-MG to approve the formation of the Inter-Programme Expert Team on Operational Weather Radar (IPET-OWR) and proposed the draft Terms of Reference provided within Reference It was also agreed that the decision should be submitted to the WMO Executive Council for approval after which the team would be activated and its membership subsequently populated. 4. The CIMO-MG determined that the initial membership of the IPET should consist of those weather radar experts already within the CBS and CIMO commissions, particularly through the transfer of memberships from CBS/ET- SBO and CIMO/ET-ORST. 5. The WMO Executive Council 68th Session, June 2016, approved the formation of the IPET under the CIMO working group structure.

6 1 IPET-OWR Background Progress up to First Session of the IPET-OWR 1. Since the CIMO-MG and EC decisions, the IPET-OWR team has initially been formed under the CIMO OPAG on Remote-Sensing Technologies, as directed under bullet 4 (former slide), with the memberships confirmed by the respective national Permanent Representatives with WMO. Subsequently, additional members have been added to the team through request for nomination by Members based on several considerations including, widening and ensuring regional representation, seeking wider Programme representation and the nomination of recognised experts that will assist in addressing the activities and tasks of the team within the draft work plan see agenda item The current membership list 1 led to the participation of 18 individuals proposed by Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea Rep., Russian Federation, South Africa, Turkey, GCOS and WMO 3. Both CBS and CIMO Management Groups strongly support the appointment of Mr Daniel MICHELSON, Canada, as Chair of the IPET-OWR. At the meeting in Tokyo Mr. Thomas KANE, Australia, and Mr. Yoshiro TANAKA have been elevted as Co-Chairs to IPET-OWR. 1

7 1 IPET-OWR-1 Group Photo Bottom to top, left to right: Mark Curtis (AUS), José Mauro de Rezende (BRA), Dean Lockett (WMO), Daniel Michelson (CAN), Toshihiko Hashida (Director JMA, JPN), Isabelle Ruedi (WMO), Ercan Büyükbaş, (TUR), Jeong-Hee Kim (KOR), Erik Becker (RSA), Tom Kane (AUS), Pei Chong, (CHN), Paul Joe (WMO), Yoshiro Tanaka (JPN), Li Bai (CHN), Kenichi Kuma (JPN), Jihyeon Kim (ROK), Wai Kong (HKG), Sung-Hwa Jung (KOR), Yoshihisa Kimata, Makoto Nishijima (JPN), Andreas Becker (AOPC), Theo Mammen (DEU), Yuri Pavlyukov (RUS), Naoki Tsukamoto, Akihito Umehara, Hiroshi Koide, and Nobuyuki Tanaka (JPN)

8 1 IPET-OWR Terms of Reference TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR WMO INTER-PROGRAMME EXPERT TEAM ON OPERATIONAL WEATHER RADARS (IPET-OWR) Within the WIGOS framework, under the governance of CIMO and the joint guidance of CIMO and CBS, act as the WMO primary working group on operational weather radars (S, C and X band) with responsibility to: (1) Develop and propose regulatory and guidance material on: (a) Standardization of, and regulations and guidance on, systems requirements and specifications, quality control, maintenance and operation, data processing algorithms, data products and data quality monitoring, weather radar composites, and scanning strategies; (b) Response to requirements of data users; and (c) Training and capacity development. (2) Contribute to development of methods, models and formats for the international exchange of weather radar data and metadata. (3) Provide advice on network design.

9 1 IPET-OWR Terms of Reference TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR WMO INTER-PROGRAMME EXPERT TEAM ON OPERATIONAL WEATHER RADARS (IPET-OWR) Within the WIGOS framework, under the governance of CIMO and the joint guidance of CIMO and CBS, act as the WMO primary working group on operational weather radars (S, C and X band) with responsibility to: (4) Provide guidance on radio-frequency allocation and protection. (5) Review and report on potential operational developing and emerging weather radar research and technologies. (6) Collaborate with other international and regional organizations on relevant matters, particularly including international standards organizations and research bodies and associations. (7) Collaborate with and respond to the requests of WMO constituent bodies, as appropriate. (8) Develop and document proposals for the activities of the Inter-Programme Expert Team. (9) Report on issues, activities and progress to CIMO and CBS.

10 1 IPET-OWR Agenda 3 REVIEW OF REGIONAL AND NATIONAL PRIORITIES ON WEATHER RADAR SYSTEMS Presentations by Team Members on Regional and National Weather Radar Priorities and Requirements 3.1 Region I - Presentation + text for final report Region II - Presentation + text for final report PPT Region III - Presentation + text for final report Region IV - Presentation + text for final report Region V - Presentation + text for final report Region VI - Presentation + text for final report Operational Russian Weather Radars: state of affairs and plans PPT PPT PPT PPT PPT E. Becker P.Chong, A. Umehara, L. Bai, N. Tsukamoto, W. Kong, J. Kim, S. Jung J. Mauro C. Horvat, P. Joe, D. Michelson T. Kane, M. Curtis, T. Mammen, E. Buyukbas Y. Pavlyukov E. Saltikoff, B. Urban, M. Gabella, M. Boscacci, T. EUMETNET/OPERA - Document 3.1(1) Use of Weather Radar for Climatological Evaluations in RA-VI 3.1(2) Mammen T. Mammen, A. Becker, Germany Requirements of Climate and Hydrological Applications 3.1(3) Requirements of Climate and Hydrological Applications - Presentation PPT A. Becker A. Becker 3.2 Analysis and discussion of survey results 3.2 Secretariat 4 REVIEW OF OUTPUT TASKS OF CBS AND CIMO RADAR WORK GROUPS 4.1 ET-SBO and TT-WRDE (TT on Weather Radar Data Exchange) D. Michelson (ET-SBO: Expert Team on Surface-Based Observing Systems) 4.2 RQQI: Radar Quality Control and Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Intercomparison Project 4.3 ET-ORST: Expert Team on Operational Remote-Sensing

11 1 IPET-OWR Work Plan Work plan of the Inter-Programme Expert Team on Operational Weather Radars ( ), CIMO-16, X.X (ET-OWR deals with all aspects of operational weather radar under the ToR below.) (Version: Draft 1.3, 20 January 2017) No. 1. Task description IPET management Addresses ToRs 8, 9 2. Survey of Members requirements Addresses ToR 8 Person responsible Action Deliverable Deadline for delivery Michelson, Secretariat Michelson Secretariat 1. Organize the activities of the IPET into a Work Plan 2. Review and revise the Work Plan as necessary. 3. Report on issues, activities and progress to CIMO and CBS 1. Survey the Members aimed to obtain requirements for WMO assistance, guidance, etc. on OWR, and the status of the Members operational radars 2. Analyse survey replies 3. Review at IPET-OWR-1 and adjust work plan accordingly 1. Work Plan 2. Work Plan Review and Revision 3. Reports to CIMO-MG, CBS- MG and ICT-IOS 1. Survey 2. Survey report 3. Updated work plan 1. Jan Draft plan: Feb 2017; 3. Upon request; to CIMO annually 1. Jan Mar Mar 2017 Comments To be approved by the IPET members and CIMO MG. Short and concise survey.

12 1 IPET-OWR Work Plan No. Work plan of the Inter-Programme Expert Team on Operational Weather Radars ( ), CIMO-16, X.X (ET-OWR deals with all aspects of operational weather radar under the ToR below.) (Version: Draft 1.3, 20 January 2017) Task description 3. Regulatory Material, advice and guidance to WMO s Members Addresses ToR 1a-b, 2, 3 Person respon sible Action TBD 1. Draft new and revised RM for WIGOS and ensure consistency of the documents 2. Benefitting from the progress achieved by ET-ORST, and based on outputs from No. 6 below, develop and propose guidance material addressing the issues stated in ToR 1a, considering requirements of data users. Initially, proposed main areas of work, assuming the deployment of operational polarimetric radar technology, are: a. user requirements, b.calibration status and stability. c. QC d.qpe e. Compositing f. QA Deliverable 1.Draft updates to WMO No. 8, 488, 544 and/or Guidance material: a. Compiled user requirements b. High-level document on weather radar, network design and applications c. Weather radar best practices guide Deadline for delivery 1. Dec 2017 (No. 8: CIMO Guide) 2. a.may 2017 b.jun 2017 c. Initial draft: Dec 2017 Comments 2b. 70

13 1 IPET-OWR Work Plan No. Work plan of the Inter-Programme Expert Team on Operational Weather Radars ( ), CIMO-16, X.X (ET-OWR deals with all aspects of operational weather radar under the ToR below.) (Version: Draft 1.3, 20 January 2017) Task description 4. Weather radar data exchange Addresses ToR 2 1a-b, Person respon sible Action TBD 1. Conclude work started in TT- WRDE on the creation of proposed standard weatherradar data representation 2. Propose weather-radar data exchange methods 3. Develop associated guidance material and provide for integration under Task No. 3. Deliverable 1. Data representation a. Informati on model b. Data model c. File format represent ation 2. Data exchange protocol(s) and mechanism(s) 3. Guidance material Deadline for delivery 1. a. Jan 2017 b. Mar 2017 c. Mar Dec 2017 Comments

14 1 IPET-OWR Work Plan Work plan of the Inter-Programme Expert Team on Operational Weather Radars ( ), CIMO-16, X.X (ET-OWR deals with all aspects of operational weather radar under the ToR below.) (Version: Draft 1.3, 20 January 2017) No. Task Description 5. Liaison with Weather radar database (WRDB), Addresses; ToR 7 6. Weather radar quality control and quantitative precipitation estimation intercomparison; Addresses ToR 1a 7. International and regional collaboration ISO; Addresses ToR 6 8. International and regional collaboration conferences; Addresses ToR 6 9. Policy; Addresses ToRs 4, 6, and Emerging technologies ;Addresses ToR Capacity development and training; Addresses ToR 1c

15 Item 13.2, Presentation on work of IPET - OWR ToR of IPET - OWR AOPC Motivation to make the climate requirement Radar based QPE: Challenges 4 Example Climate Use of Weather Radar Data 5 Essential Requirements for Radar Based CDR s

16 2 Motivation: Detection of all heavy events Extreme Precipitation - A new Challenge Muenster, July 2014 total precipitation: 293 mm / 12h and 264 mm / 2h Gauge data only Gauge adjusted QPE online Gauge adjusted QPE offline

17 2 Motivation: Detection of all heavy events Precipitation Monitoring - Gauges vs. Radar Event is only seen by radar Heavy Precipitation +++ Münster 28 July Improved quantification by additional data available for radar climatology Gauge data (REGNIE) Gauge adjusted QPE online Gauge adjusted QPE offline

18 2 Motivation: T vs. RR trend paradox significant temperature vs. insignificant precipitation trend trend Source: BAMS SoC 2014, Figs. 2.1 (cropped) and 2.17 Is the absence of evidence the evidence of absence or is there a growing undercatch of gauge based precipitation measurements due to more frequent small scale (extreme) precipitation events in context of climate change? World-wide analyzed radar data might provide a clue!

19 2 Motivation: The untapped source of radar data World wide weather radar coverage > 800 systems listed by Heistermann et al., 2013 Power Areas related to NHMSs of US, China, Japan, Philippines, Australia and Europe

20 Item 13.2, Presentation on work of IPET - OWR ToR of IPET - OWR AOPC Motivation to make the climate requirement Radar based QPE: Challenges 4 Example Climate Use of Weather Radar Data 5 Essential Requirements for Radar Based CDR s

21 3 Radar based Quantitative Precipitation Estimation The DWD Radar Network DWD radar network 17 C-band radar systems plus research site at Hohenpeißenberg Volume scan every 5 minutes Terrain-following precipitation scan every 5 minutes Mosaic product with 1km x 1km grid resolution 5 min temporal resolution (precipitation scan) Usage of quality information in overlapping areas complete coverage of Germany (150 km range)

22 3 Radar based Quantitative Precipitation Estimation The DWD Gauge Network ~1300 automatic gauges Automatic precipitation measurement sites of the Deutscher Wetterdienst and the federal states (~1300) ~1000 DWD sites ~ 300 sites of German federal states ~ 1 gauge / 350 km 2 (2010; nominal value: 1 gauge / 400 km 2 ) broadcast hourly temporal resolution of 1 minute available in near-real-time (adjustment starts with 25 min delay)

23 3 Radar based QPE with calibration against gauges Two Types of Precipitation Measurement 17 C band radar stations operated by DWD About 2000 rain gauges operated by DWD and state authorities = +

24 3 Radar based QPE with calibration against gauges Two Types of Precipitation Measurement The German gauge adjusted QPE system, called RADOLAN, went International Involving C-Band Radars of it s 9 neighbour countries

25 3 Radar based Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Phenomena affecting radar data no uniform vertical profile sun aircraft chaff attenuation propagation conditions Hail effects wet radome insects birds shielding overshooting Interference ground clutter ships sea clutter wind mills calibration After Holleman et al., 2006, Quality information for radars and radar data, OPERA work package 1.2

26 3 Challenges for global applications and in context of GCOS IP Many Problems of real-time radar based QPE, persist in climate mode Short time series yet not exceeding 15yrs No ocean coverage Sensor modifications over time (Homogeneity) Small errors amplify when integrated across longer aggregation periods In-situ validation data not available everywhere Complexity and time variability of atmospheric conditions Calibration and retrieval algorithms need to be harmonized Climate Requirements assembled in CBS/OPAG-IOS/WxR_EXCHANGE/2.4

27 3 Challenges for global applications and in context of GCOS IP Original reflectivity data needs to be exchanged QPE Methods need to be harmonized (Bias correction, radar-gauge adj.) Adequate treatment and documentation of missing data Data is national sometimes even not owned by WMO NMHSs but by companies in the field of flight security (e.g. in Austria) Nothing in place similar to Satellite Data, e.g. EUMETSAT No international standards in data storage and documentation yet in place A data storage and documentation standard should be identified and applied ASAP to keep historic radar data assessable for future utilization. Otherwise we will continue to waste climate relevant and expensively raised radar data!

28 3 Promising developments in the OSS world OSS tools as below are built on an OSS based RTE (Heistermann et al., Jan-2015, BAMS, , DOI: /BAM S-D ) The Python ART Radar Toolkit (Py-ART, is used by the US DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility for working with data from a number of its precipitation and cloud radars, but has been designed so that it can be used by others in the radar and atmospheric communities to examine, processes, and analyze data from many types of weather radars. BALTRAD ( OSS package maintained by SHMI, Stockholm, Sweden. The open data models ODIM_H5 (based on the HDF5 format) and CfRadial (based on the NetCDF format) facilitate data exchange via clearly defined interfaces and by using open libraries available for many programming languages The OSS community is an important facilitator to raise awareness on the utility of radar data and towards an internationalization of radar data exchange world wide!

29 Item 13.2, Presentation on work of IPET - OWR ToR of IPET - OWR AOPC Motivation to make the climate requirement Radar based QPE: Challenges Example Climate Use of Weather Radar Data 5 Essential Requirements for Radar Based CDR s

30 Current project: Re-analysis of radar data (2001-today) Goal: High-resolution radar based climatology with focus on extreme precipitation Based on operational radar online adjustment (RADOLAN) Product example: Hot Spots of heavy precipitation

31 4 First Results and Future Perspectives North Rhine-Westphalia: Heavy Precipitation Statistics Duration=1h, Return Period, T=1a) Stations only Radar & Stations

32 4 First Results and Future Perspectives First time urban district resolving mapping of heavy precipitation events and risks for the municipality of Cologne, Germany, thanks to radar data Base: Stations 50yrs Base: Radar 15yrs Districts of Cologne No. of hours with precipitation less frequent than once per year

33 4 First Results and Future Perspectives Potential Uses Cases for a Radar re-processing based precipitation climatology particularly in the field of CC adaptation Civil Protection Urban Planning Insurances Strategic resource allocation Agriculture and Food Security Risk Mapping Water Management Elementary damages Soil Erosion Monitoring Run-off Modelling, high-resolution mapping of return period

34 Item 13.2, Presentation on work of IPET - OWR ToR of IPET - OWR AOPC Motivation to make the climate requirement Radar based QPE: Challenges Example Climate Use of Weather Radar Data Essential Requirements for Radar Based CDR s

35 5 Essential Requirements for Radar Based CDR s Climate requirements for regional and global radar data exchange 1. Weather radar data coverage enters into the (multi-)decadal scale. In just another decade it is ready to address climate requirements, provided methodologies and data exchange have matured to do so. It is time to start and exchange on the required R&D now! 2. A number of NMHS s has conducted promising proto-type studies and is ready to invest into the development and generation of multi-decadal radar bases to support climate requirements 3. Raw (reflectivity) 2D radar data taken from precipitation scans (or lowest elevation scans) should be of highest priority. Volume (3D) data to follow. Little experience yet on the climate value of doppler velocities for wind.

36 5 Essential Requirements for Radar Based CDR s Climate requirements for regional and global radar data exchange 4. Target applications are extreme precipitation statistics, long-term aggregations and re-analysis 5. Quality control of radar data mandatory for climate application. Demands even higher than for hydrological purposes as data homogeneity in space and time comes as an additional requirement (on top of clutter and artefact corrections also required for hydrological applications) 6. Quantitative radar based precipitation analysis most reliable through adjustment against gauge data. This implies an additional requirement on gauge data. New absolute calibration methods based on dual-pol radar measurements might alleviate the gauge requirement. 7. On the global scale the effort to address climate requirement is huge and should be addressed by an international data centre that is charged to world-wide collect and quality assure radar data.

37 5 Essential Requirements for Radar Based CDR s Hydro-meteorological and climate Requirements assembled in CBS/OPAG- IOS/WxR_EXCHANGE/2.3/4 (Exeter 2013 Workshop on Radar Data Exchange) Ref.1 and Ref.2 of Doc3-1(3) AOPC-21 action 28 to establish a task team to consider the way forward for using precipitation radar data for climate monitoring Ref.3 of Doc3-1(3) AOPC-21 action 29 to introduce relevant activities for the AOPC work plan, and to propose the way forward (Draft document by Elena Saltikoff, Laurent Delobbe, Norman Donaldson, Bernard Urban, Demetris Charalambous, et al.) Ref.4 of Doc3-1(3) GEWEX Data Assessments Panel (GDAP) has become aware of the additional capabilities weather radars can offer also in their context. Plans to organize a workshop this year gathering partners from NOAA (Brian Nelson, NEXRAD), Europe and Asia have not yet materialized, but maybe in 2018.

38 5 Conclusions The CIMO-IPET-OWR will provide for the prerequisites that are mandatory to support a global scale weather radar based precipitation monitoring and ultimate a data base that is ultimately fit for hydro- and climate applications In contrast to the Exeter meeting, the climate requirements and the application examples where this time well understood and taken. Work and achievements being made in the context of OPERA will serve to a good extend a template for the recommended data exchange and formats. With AOPC-21 actions 28 and 29 is set to introduce relevant activities for the AOPC work plan, and to propose the way forward (see also Presentation by Elena Saltikoff). Recommendation: AOPC should stay an interested, active and consulting partner to the work of IPET-OWR in order to warrant that decisions made on standards, meta data and methodologies are taken while having at least considered the climate related requirements. In view of the scale of the task, it appears worth considering to put much more momentum into the activities. A EUMETRAD entity as a pendant to EUMETSAT is probably unavoidable to make substantial process beyond the awareness that radar data should be stored appropriately given their long term value.

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