statistics on Black Meteorologists in Six Organizational units oi the Federal Government

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statistics on Black Meteorologists in Six Organizational units oi the Federal Government June Bacon-Bercey Aviation Branch National Weather Service, NOAA Silver Spring, Md.

1 statistics on Black Meteorologists in Six Organizational units oi the Federal Government June Bacon-Bercey Aviation Branch National Weather Service, NOAA Silver Spring, Md Abstract Programs relating to full utilization and to increasing the pool of black atmospheric scientists require factual information. Statistically reliable information on black meteorologists is needed to determine any improvement in the participation of black Americans in the atmospheric sciences. Statistical data on blacks are often combined with statistics on women and other minorities and, therefore, must be identified and separated from these data in order to be used. This paper in the main presents statistics from six organizational units of the federal government on the number of full-time meteorologists compared with the percentage of black American meteorologists employed as of Based on National Science Foundation and American Meteorological Society data, a calculated estimate of how long it will take for the percentage Of black meteorologists in the nation to reach population parity is given. 1. Introduction HOW t many black meteorologists are there in the United States? I find it impossible to provide a reliable number. Statistics on black Americans are often combined with statistics on women and other minorities. The Department of Defense reports that there were black American meteorologists in the armed services during World War II. Since World War II, at least three black Americans that I know of have obtained the Ph.D. degree in meteorology and a few more have obtained the master's and/ or bachelor's degree in meteorology. The picture has not changed dramatically it has been turned around, but questions yet to be determined are how well has it been turned around and what is the rate of change. This paper will attempt to throw some light on the rate of change. 2. Federal government Figure 1 presents 1976 statistics from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)/Department of Transportation, Department of the Interior, Department of Agriculture, and NOAA/Department of Commerce and gives 1977 statistics from the Department of Defense (DOD), military personnel on active duty in the Army, Navy, and Air Force. I assumed that the number and ethnic breaki This is a revised and expanded version of a paper presented by the author at the Science and Engineering Symposium, Consortium for Black Professional Development, May 1976, Chicago, 111. The paper was reviewed by the AMS Board on Women and Minorities of which the author is a member /78/ $ American Meteorological Society 576 down of military meteorologists in 1977 were identical in The government units were selected on the basis of the substantial size of meteorological operations within their organizational structures. Meteorologists in the DOD are commissioned officers except for 50 warrant officers trained as meteorologists by the Army. The Army has 1 black meteorologist, a warrant officer. It should be noted that meteorological functions within the Department of Agriculture and the FAA are performed by meteorologists who are not directly employed by the organizations in which they work. Some are NOAA personnel. There is evidence of black recruitment in other areas of the FAA and the Departments of Agriculture and Interior. There is 1 earth scientist trainee who is black in the Department of the Interior. The two major governmental employers of meteorologists out of the six organizational units in this study are NOAA and the military. The two units, separately, have more meteorologists employed than the remaining four units combined and, as expected, more black meteorologists on the employee rolls than the other four units (Fig. 2). The total number of meteorologists in all six units combined and the total approximate number of meteorologists in the United States as of 1974, according to the National Science Foundation (NSF, 1974), along with the corresponding percentage of black meteorologists, are also shown in Fig. 2. The total number of meteorologists in the six units combined is The number of black meteorologists employed full time by the six units is 58 or ^1.58% (Fig. 2). The breakdown of NSF's estimated total number of meteorologists (7000) in the United States in 1974 by areas of employment is shown below: Federal government 2170 (31%) Military 2240 (32%) State, local, private 1540 (22%) Self-employed Unemployed Nonprofit Miscellaneous Academia 1050 (15%) The 1974 NSF study indicates that 2170 civilian meteorologists are employed full time in the federal government. The statistics from the present study reflect only 1855 civilian meteorologists (Fig. 1). The difference of 315 may be in part because the present study considered only meteorologists in the Civil Service's 1340 series 2 ; 2 This is the basic series for meteorologists but does not include meteorologists employed in other specialties.

Bulletin American Meteorological Society 577 FIG. 1. The 1976 and 1977 statistics for the number of meteorologists employed by the six federal government organizational units considered in this study.

2 Bulletin American Meteorological Society 577 FIG. 1. The 1976 and 1977 statistics for the number of meteorologists employed by the six federal government organizational units considered in this study. FIG. 2. Comparison of number of meteorologists in NOAA and in the military with the total number in six federal government organizational units and with the total nationwide. was done 2 years later than the NSF 1974 study, during which time employment may have shifted; and covered only five federal government units. The NSF 1974 study showed 2240 meteorologists in the military, whereas the present study indicates The difference of 417 may be because this study considered only meteorologists on active duty status, is more recent than the NSF study, and there may have been

578 an employment shift meteorologists leaving the military for private industry or for civilian government meteorological or nonmeteorological positions.

3 578 an employment shift meteorologists leaving the military for private industry or for civilian government meteorological or nonmeteorological positions. Some may have continued to work for the military but as civilians. T h e lower number in this paper is also partly due to the exclusion of other branches of the military services (e.g., the Coast Guard and Marine Corps). 3. A look at the population The percentage of black meteorologists needed for population parity is 11%. T h e 1976 census indicated people in the United States of which 11% (or ) are black. Taking these figures into account, one can readily determine that the number of black meteorologists with respect to the total number of meteorologists in the nation is not proportional to the black population. T h e number of black meteorologists needed for population parity is 770 (i.e., 11% of the total estimated 7000 meteorologists in the nation (NSF, 1974), Fig. 2). 4. Some statistics on black American meteorologists How many black American meteorologists are there inside and outside the labor force? If anyone is prepared to give an accurate number, then that person's information is wanted by many groups that have been working diligently to come up with an accurate number. Four such groups are the Subcommittee on Manpower and Education of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), the NSF, the Education and Manpower Commission of the AMS, and a group headed by Dr. William W. Kellogg at NCAR. T o this date, none of the groups has been able to arrive at any reliable number. Kellogg's group analyzed the results of the AMS 1975 questionnaire sent to almost 9000 members (Kellogg, 1977) of which over half (~5000) responded. Kellogg considered it pointless to analyze responses from the black AMS members because there were so few ( ^ 2 5 ) of them. T h e AMS like many professional organizations today is attempting to establish credible statistics on women, blacks, and other minorities that can be used in evaluating affirmative action programs. It appears that the black meteorologists who responded to the AMS 1975 questionnaire tended for the most part to be working in forecasting, management, and research and development (Kellogg, 1977). A preliminary study by the NSF in 1974 indicates that there are roughly scientists in the nation (this includes the medical sciences), of which (or 2.60%) are black. Included in the black scientists are meteorologists in the military, private, and government sectors. T h e present study indicates that out of the 3678 meteorologists directly employed by six federal organizational units, 58 (or 1.58%) are black. If we assume that 1.58% of the 7000 meteorologists nationwide (NSF, 1974) represents the number of black meteorologists, then the number of black meteorologists in 1974 would be ^ (Fig. 2). T h e number 110 may seem a bit high; however, presumably it represents the military (commissioned and warrant officers trained and/or educated while in the military to perform the duties of a meteorologist), academia, private industry, and all state and local governments as well as the federal government. T o have parity with the 1976 black population, the number should be 770. T o put it another way, an additional 660 black meteorologists are needed to bring the estimated percentage (1.58%) up to 11% or black population parity (Fig. 2). T h e following preliminary results of the AMS 1976 and 1977 questionnaires 3 sent to 130 colleges and universities in the United States and Canada that have degree programs in the atmospheric sciences, indicate 1.14% (or 29) black American students in degree programs in meteorology out of 2539 in 1976 and 1.09% (or 34) black students out of 3117 in 1977: 1976 Black/North Americans Native Americans Hispanics Asian Americans White/Caucasians Other 29 (1.14%) (1.09%) Of 14 black students scheduled to graduate in 1977, 8 were in the bachelor's, 4 in the master's, and 2 in the doctoral degree program. There are no statistics available on the number of black students in meteorology degree programs in Just when the 14 black North American meteorological students graduating in 1977 might join the labor force is beyond the scope of the available data, but estimates will be made in Section 5 concerning the rate of achieving black population parity. 5. How long? A 1974 study by the American Geological Institute (AGI, ) indicates that out of students in the geoscience departments in the United States, approximately 321 (1.0937%) are black. Comparable figures are difficult to come by for the field of meteorology for A total of 4785 members responded to the AMS 1975 questionnaire (Kellogg, 1977), of which % indicated ethnic origin as black. How many did not indicate their ethnic origin or respond to the questionnaire? T h e question may come to mind: why is it necessary to know how many meteorologists are black, of Asiatic origin, Native American, or Hispanic? A minority breakdown of meteorology graduates later in this report will partly reveal why it is necessary. For the present, a better barometer than numbers to determine the effectiveness of affirmative action programs designed to increase minority participation is yet to be found. T h e NSF sampled a million people in Results from the sample also showed the percentage of black s R. E. Orville, AMS Education and Manpower Commissioner, private communication, The figures for 1977 are accurate to within 10-20%, and data include 50 Canadian students, 1 of whom is black.

4 Bulletin American Meteorological Society meteorologists is < 1 % and that 12 out of 3300 meteorologists (0.36%) were black (NSF, 1974). T o determine how long it will take to obtain a representative number of black meteorologists consistent with the black population, several assumptions have to be made. I estimated the number of students in degree programs in atmospheric sciences in 1974 and used that number with those obtained by the AMS for the years 1976 and 1977 (R. E. Orville, private communication, 1977). T h e 1974 NSF data indicate 54 doctoral degrees, 195 master's degrees, and 299 bachelor's degrees in meteorology were granted. In the fall of the same year, the NSF data show 872 graduate meteorology students enrolled in colleges and universities. T h e 1974 NSF number of 872 is less than the AMS numbers of 1266 and 1456 for 1976 and 1977, respectively, which are the numbers of graduate meteorology students determined from preliminary results of the AMS questionnaires (R. E. Orville, private communication, 1977). However, a backward extrapolation of the AMS data to 1974 gives 886, a number close to that of the NSF. This consistency in the number of graduate meteorology students determined from independent surveys by two different organizations in different years gives confidence in the approximate number of graduate meteorology students (872 in 1974, 1266 in 1976, and 1456 in 1977) used here to calculate an approximate number of undergraduate meteorology students. T o determine the number of undergraduate meteorology students in 1974, it is assumed to be the same percentage of all meteorology students as the percentage ( ~ 5 0 % ) given by the 1976 and 1977 AMS questionnaires (R. E. Orville, private communication, 1977); i.e., the number of undergraduate meteorology students approximately equals the number enrolled as graduate meteorology students. Thus, with 872 graduate meteorology students in 1974, the estimated number of undergraduate meteorology students in 1974 was also 872. Adding the estimated 872 undergraduate students majoring in meteorology in 1974 to the given 872 graduate meteorology majors in 1974 gives the estimated total students majoring in meteorology in 1974 as Assuming that the ratio of black students to total students studying atmospheric science in 1974 is the same as the ratio of black students to total students studying geoscience (1.09%), then about 19 black students were majoring in meteorology in Although the AMS data (R. E. Orville, private communication, 1977) show that the number increased to 29 in 1976 and to 34 in 1977, the percentage remained about the same 1.09% in 1974, 1.14% in 1976, and 1.09% in 1977 (see tabulation in Section 4). How many of the black meteorology students are graduating yearly? T h e AMS survey data show 14 black meteorology students were graduating in 1976 and also 14 in Of the 14 in 1977, 8 were graduating with bachelor's degrees, 4 with master's degrees, and 2 with Ph.D. degrees. If it is assumed that half of those graduating with bachelor's and master's degrees and all of those with Ph.D. degrees entered the labor force (the 579 others enrolling for higher degrees), then roughly 8 black North American meteorologists are estimated to have entered the labor force in At that rate, it will take over three-quarters of a century (82 years) for enough black meteorologists to enter the labor force to bring the calculated number from 110 up to present population parity or 770. By tripling the rate from 8 per year to 24 per year, present population parity may be realized in a little less than a career life cycle or 27 years. But even at the tripled rate, present parity would not occur before the end of this century. Parity at some future time can never be achieved so long as the percentage of meteorology students who are black remains constant at 1.09%, as it seems to have done from 1974 to Other minority statistics in related professions According to the National Research Council in 1973, 0.8% of the doctoral scientists and engineers were black, 0.6% were Latin American or Hispanic, 0.05% were American Indian, and 5.0% were Asian American (Pakiser, 1976). Asian Americans have the largest percentage among the minority groups of participation in the doctoral science and engineering programs. It seems reasonable to assume that black, Latin American, and American Indian participation in doctoral science programs should be increased by a factor of almost 10. The percentage of black professionals in meteorological and related science positions (government wide) according to the Civil Service Commission (CSC, 1974) was: Cartography Oceanography Meteorology Geology % Total Employees In the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 1970, there was 1 black American geologist out of the total geological work force of 1215 (0.08%). By 1975, 9 black American geologists in the USGS were among a work force of 1584 (0.57%), an increase of 800% (Pakiser, 1976). In NOAA in 1976, there were 32 black American meteorologists (Civil Service 1340 series) out of 1785 ( % ). As of 31 August 1977, the number of black American meteorologists in NOAA was 47 among a work force of 1782 ( % ), about a 4 7 % increase within a year (NOAA Personnel figures, 1977). This is encouraging but short of goals. 7. W h a t has been done? Leadership and commitment by professional societies play a significant role in remedying the severe shortage of black Americans in the profession of meteorology. T h e American Geophysical Union (AGU) initiated a program at the beginning of the 1970s to increase all minority participation in the earth science professions (geology, geophysics, meteorology, oceanography).5 In s Breakdown of earth sciences according to the Department of Labor.

580 1975 the AMS formed two ad hoc committees, one on women and one on minorities, that later combined into the AMS Board on Women and Minorities.

5 the AMS formed two ad hoc committees, one on women and one on minorities, that later combined into the AMS Board on Women and Minorities. Several member societies of the AGI followed similar pursuits. T h e AGI provides information and advice on minority participation to educational institutions. T h e AMS Board on Women and Minorities compiles data and develops programs designed to increase women and minority participation in the atmospheric sciences. Upward mobility programs, especially NOAA's, have made possible the training and employment of a number of black American meteorologists. 8. W h a t else can be done? Background skills (mathematics, reading, visual imagery, etc.), as well as interest in the atmospheric sciences, especially meteorology, need to be developed in black Americans before high school entry. T h e rate at which black Americans are now entering the earth science professions is per year according to data from the AGI on degrees granted to black Americans in 1974 (Pakiser, 1976). A larger percentage of blacks with scientific potential needs to be identified, assisted, recruited, and finally brought into the active labor force. Identification of this select group should begin before high school. Barriers that prevent blacks equal opportunities to enter science careers appear before high school (NSF, 1974). The National Consortium for Black Professional Development has a target area at the elementary school level. Subtleties, inherited traditions, and acquired attitudes of our society that are unfavorable to developing atmospheric science potential in minorities should be subordinated to assist in the development of science potential in talented black American students. That talent could be channeled toward meteorology. T o o many young blacks believe that the field of meteorology is not open to them; still others are not even aware that the field exists. Role modeling and a constructive meteorological awareness program in the schools, in the science and engineering fairs, and in the communities can help to turn the tide that has been moving too long in the wrong direction. T h e obligation to expose young black students with limited background in the physical sciences to meteorology should not rest only with meteorologists or the AMS, AGU, or member societies of the AGI. Society, too, has a moral obligation to put aside the past myths about black Americans not only in the meteorological field but in all of the technical fields. The Administrator of NOAA, Richard Frank, advocates Affirmative Action as being a social responsibility, besides being the law. 6 Department of the Interior (Div. of Water Resources Management, Engineering Research Center, Bldg. 67, Denver Federal Center, Denver, Colo ); Department of Agriculture (National Assoc. of State Universities and Land-Grant Colleges, 1 Dupont Circle, N.W., Suite 710, Washington, D.C ); and Department of Commerce (Chief, Special Personnel Programs Branch, Personnel Div., NOAA, 6010 Executive Blvd., Rockville, Md ). The task before us appears insurmountable, but we are making steady gains. The gains should be accelerated and the momentum maintained for at least a couple of decades if we are to reach a respectable representative number of black Americans in the atmospheric sciences. Emphasis should be extended to the "type" of careers that exist in meteorology besides the popular "weather forecasting" specialty. Black students should be made aware of the employers of meteorologists, especially those that have special emphasis programs 6 and dynamic affirmative action programs; the minimal salary a meteorologist earns when he first enters the active labor force; the basic courses that should be taken before beginning an atmospheric science degree program; and the geographical locations of colleges and universities that have degree programs in meteorology. Much of this information is available in publications of the American Meteorological Society (AMS, 1978a, 1978b, 1977; Harris, 1972). Officers, Commissions, Boards, Committees, and individual members can play vital roles in increasing the awareness among black students that this information exists. If we implement the recommendations mentioned here, say over the next 10 years, someone should then measure our progress and see how close we are to the goal. In order to do this, we will need reliable statistics. Acknowledgments. The statistics reported were through the cooperative support of NOAA, the National Transportation Safety Board, Federal Aviation Administration, Departments of Interior and Agriculture, U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, and U.S. Army. The author is grateful for the assistance and guidance from Capt. Hugh W. Albers, Executive Secretary, Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Scientists, NSF, and Dr. Margaret LeMone Gilman, Chairman of the AMS Board on Women and Minorities. The efforts of Mr. Dave Berube, NOAA Personnel, Maj. E. Archambault, U.S. Army, Lt. Comdr. T. A. Barthold, U.S. Navy, Mrs. Thelma Fricks, National Weather Service, and Mr. Fred Hamburg, TERA Corp., are especially acknowledged. References AGI, : Student enrollment in the geoscience departments. Falls Church, Va., p. 48. AMS, 1978a: List of colleges and universities with degree programs in the atmospheric and oceanographic sciences. Boston, 2 pp., 1978b: Curricula in the Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences. Boston, 305 pp., 1977: The Challenge of Meteorology. Boston, 16 pp. CSC, 1974: Central Personnel Data File. Washington, D.C. (Unpublished data.) Harris, M. F., 1972: Opportunities in Meteorology. Vocational Guidance Manuals, New York, and AMS, Boston, 184 pp. Kellogg, W. W., 1977: Results of the AMS questionnaire of Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 58, NSF, 1974: In-house data. Washington, D.C., 1977: Women and minorities in science and engineering. NSF , Washington, D.C. Pakiser, L. C., 1976: Opportunities in the earth and physical sciences. Paper presented at the Science and Engineering Symposium, Consortium for Black Professional Development, May 1976, Chicago.

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