Tracking the 2016 Diamondback moth outbreak

Transcription

1 Rothamsted Research where knowledge grows Tracking the 2016 Diamondback moth outbreak Charlotte Wainwright AgroEcology Department, Rothamsted Research January 2017

2 Data sources Citizen science data Several portals exist where people can report sightings of moths, with times and dates Some countries also record light trap data via these portals as well Many of these portals connect with mobile phone apps so people can report their sightings in real time

3 Data sources RIS light trap network Rothamsted Insect Survey collects data from a network of 84 light traps spread across the UK (and a few further afield) The light traps are operated by volunteers and are usually checked each day. The moths species are identified and numbers recorded Data from the light trap network is typically collated at the end of each calendar year

4 2016 in numbers from citizen science Diamonback moth numbers from citizen science Norway Sweden Finland Belgium Netherlands In 2016 more than 1.2 million Diamondback moths were reported in Belgium alone

5 Tracking the 2016 Outbreak Background colour is the 925- mb temperature from NCEP reanalysis data Arrows indicate wind speed and direction at 925 mb White stars show the timing and location of Diamondback moths records from citizen science observations and the Rothamsted Insect Survey UK light trap network

6 Tracing the UK arrivals backwards NOAA HYSPLIT MODEL - TRAJECTORY FREQUENCIES # trajs passing through grid sq./# trajectories (%) 0 m and m Integrated from Jun to May 16 (UTC) [backward] Freq Calculation started at (UTC) Source N W METEOROLOGICAL DATA Job ID: Job Start: Wed Jan 18 14:25:01 UTC 2017 Source 1 lat.: lon.: height: 500 m AGL >90 % Frequencies >80 % calculated using >70 % >60 % 24-hour backwards 15 >50 % the HYSPLIT dispersion model trajectories started every 3 >40 % hours from 7am on 4 June >30 % back >20 to % 10am on 30 May 2016 >10 % Migration heights are >1 % assumed to be at 500 metres above ground level Strong indication that the first wave of arrivals (1-4 June) originated from Norwegian coast, rather than the Netherlands of France

7 Predicting arrival in the UK Source N E Source N E -4-2 NOAA HYSPLIT MODEL - TRAJECTORY FREQUENCIES # trajs passing NOAA through HYSPLIT grid sq./# MODEL trajectories - TRAJECTORY (%) 0 FREQUENCIES m and m # trajs passing through grid sq./# trajectories (%) 0 m and Integrated m# trajs passing from 1900 through 29 grid May sq./# to trajectories (%) Jun 16 0 m (UTC) and m Integrated from May to Jun 16 (UTC) Integrated from May to Jun 16 (UTC) Freq Release started at (UTC) Freq Release Freq Release started started at 0000 at (UTC) (UTC) Source N E >90 % >80 % >70 % >60 % >50 % >40 % >30 % -8 >20 %-6 0 >10 % >1 % NOAA HYSPLIT MODEL - TRAJECTORY FREQUENCIESNOAA HYSPLIT MODEL 50 - TRAJECTORY FREQUENCIES # trajs passing through grid sq./# trajectories (%) 0 m and m# trajs passing through grid sq./# trajectories (%) 0 m and m Integrated from May to Jun 16 (UTC) Integrated 54 from May to Jun 16 (UTC) Freq METEOROLOGICAL Release started at 0000 DATA00 00 (UTC) Freq METEOROLOGICAL Release started at 0000 DATA00 00 (UTC) Job ID: Job Start: Mon Jan 23 12:38:03 UTC 2017 Job ID: Job Start: Mon Jan 23 12:32:23 UTC 2017 Source 1 lat.: lon.: height: 500 m AGL >90 Source % 1 lat.: lon.: height: 500 m AGL >90 % Initial trajectory started: 1900Z 29 52May 16 Initial trajectory started: 1900Z 29 May Direction of trajectories: Forward Trajectory Duration: 24 hrs >80 Direction % of trajectories: Forward Trajectory Duration: 24 hrs >80 % Frequency grid resolution: 0.25 x 0.25 degrees Frequency grid resolution: 0.25 x 0.25 degrees Endpoint output frequency: 60 per hour >70 Endpoint % output frequency: 60 per hour Number of trajectories used for this calculation: 16 Number of trajectories >70 % used for this calculation: 24 Meteorology: 0000Z 1 May reanalysis >60 Meteorology: % 0000Z 52 1 May reanalysis >60 % >50 % METEOROLOGICAL DATA >50 % Job ID: >40 % Job Start: Mon 50 Jan 23 12:38:03 UTC 2017 >40 % 50 Source 1 lat.: > % lon.: height: 500 m AGL >30 % Initial trajectory -2 started: 1900Z 29 May Direction of trajectories: >20 % Forward Trajectory Duration: 24 hrs >20 % Frequency 10 grid resolution: >10 % 0.25 x 0.25 degrees >10 % Endpoint output frequency: 60 per hour Number of trajectories >1 % used for this calculation: >1 % Meteorology: 0000Z 1 May reanalysis Source N E Source N E METEOROLOGICAL DATA Job ID: Job Start: Mon Jan 23 12:39:05 UTC 2017 Source 1 lat.: lon.: 2.82 height: 500 m AGL Initial trajectory started: 1900Z 29 May 16 Direction of trajectories: Forward Trajectory Duration: 24 hrs Frequency grid resolution: 0.25 x 0.25 degrees Endpoint output frequency: 60 per hour Number of trajectories used for this calculation: 16 Meteorology: 0000Z 1 May reanalysis NOAA HYSPLIT MODEL - TRAJECTORY FREQUENCIES METEOROLOGICAL DATA Job ID: Job Start: Mon Jan 23 12:34:44 UTC 2017 Source 1 lat.: lon.: 2.82 height: 500 m AGL Initial trajectory started: 1900Z 29 May 16 Direction of trajectories: Forward Frequency grid resolution: 0.25 x 0.25 degrees Endpoint output frequency: 60 per hour Number of trajectories used for this calculation: 24 Meteorology: 0000Z 1 May reanalysis Trajectory Duration: 24 hrs >90 % % >80 % >80 % >70 % >60 >70 % % >50 >60 % % >40 >50 % % >30 % >40 % >20 % >10 >30 % % >1 >20 % % >10 % >1 % Forward trajectories started every 3 hours from 7pm on 29 May to 7pm on 31 May 2016 Starting points from citizen science observations Migration heights at 500 m From these trajectories we can see which populations present a chance of arriving in the UK With further work this data could possibly be developed into an early warning system for mass migrations

8 Remaining open questions What were the meteorological conditions that caused the initial population explosion in wintering areas? What is the maximum flight endurance and flight height of the Diamondback moth? What were the early warning signs for the outbreak reaching the UK coast? Can we use citizen science and light trap data to forecast the probability of Diamondback moth movements reaching the UK in real time?