Research activities in Lund University based on International Training Program (ITP) in 2008

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1 Research activities in Lund University based on International Training Program (ITP) in 2008 Koji Nishiyama, Assistant Professor Urban and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kyushu University Based on International Training Program (ITP) supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), I had carried out research activities within 2 months (7th July~6th September in 2008) in Lund University, Lund city, where is located in the southern edge of Sweden, very close to Denmark. Here, I will explain the outline of Lund, the introduction of cooperative staffs belonging to Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, research activities, research contents, and future plans with Lund University. Outline of Lund 1) Lund is conveniently and simply accessible from Copenhagen international airport (Denmark) by train with a minimum of 40 minutes. Scandinavian airline has convenient, direct daily flight from Narita international airport, Japan. 2) The third largest city, Malmo, is located 10 minutes distance from Lund by train. Copenhagen, the capital city of Denmark, is directly accessible (50 minutes) from Lund by train, crossing the border between Sweden and Denmark. Japan embassy located in Copenhagen conducts many varieties of works for Japanese living in Denmark and Sweden, and Japanese travelers. Therefore, if you met with some trouble (losing your passport, etc.), you might be able to solve its problem as rapidly as possible. 3) Lund is composed of famous, historical old town for Hanseatic League, and beautiful suburbs characterized by forests and agriculture region. In old town (downtown), there are many supermarkets and restaurants (Nordic, French, Italian, middle-east, Japanese, Chinese, Indian ) convenient for staying in Lund. Lund city has convenient bus network for commuting between old town and its surroundings. In addition, university students can easily commute to and from Lund University by bicycle because Lund is small city and geographically flat, and because many facilities of Lund University are scattered in Lund city. By the way, Water Resources Engineering is approximately 2 km away from old town, easily accessible by bus, bicycle, and even walking.

students in September because many new students enter Lund University.

2 4) More than 30 thousand students are living in Lund, which has a total population of approximately 100 thousand. The disadvantage for living in Lund is chronically extreme shortage of accommodations (apartment, sharing house, dormitory) for students in September because many new students enter Lund University. Therefore, I recommend you to avoid visiting Lund at the beginning of the first semester. 5) Regardless of high latitude location of Lund, climate is relatively calm under the Location of Lund Lund old town

3 influence of warm Nordic Atlantic current system. In other words, climatologically, summer is very comfortable and, on the other hand, winter is not so cold. However, the length of daytime is largely changing through the year. We can enjoy long daytime in comfortable summer season and, on the other hand, we must live in a short daytime in winter. Cooperative staffs in Lund University We, Kyushu university staffs, have been studying cooperatively with Lund University staffs in the field of hydrology related to water resources, water circulation system in atmosphere and groundwater, including mutual international student exchange activity between both universities. Prof. Ronny Berndtsson (Ground water engineering, Water resources engineering, Hydrology) He is a key person who has kept significant partnership with Kyushu University for long time. In this time, he took important roles in many arrangements of present and future ITP planning for smoothly conducting research activities of ITP. Prof. Cintia Uvo (hydrometeorology) She has contributed directly to cooperative research linking to the field of extreme climate system and global warming under the support of ITP. I have strong impression that she can enjoy everything every day. Prof. Kayo Suzumura (Japanese language) She is one of the staffs of the Japanese language course in Lund University. Under her courtesy, Kyushu University students learning in Lund could experience significant communication with Swedish students using Japanese language as volunteers. Dr. Jonas Olsson (Hydrology) He originally studied hydrometeorology in Lund University, and now belongs to Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) located in Norrkoping, taking one hour from Stockholm by express train.

4 Research staffs in Lund Dr. Koji Nishiyama -- Kyushu Univ -- Cooperation Professor. Uvo - Lund Univ - Associate Prof. Yasuda - Tottori Univ - Professor. Ronny Berndtsson -- Lund Univ -- Japanese language education staffs Dr. Lars Larm Dr. Kayo Suzumura Dr. Jonas OLSSON: RESEARCHER ( Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute )

5 Research activities in Lund University Before I visited Lund University, based on predetermined research plan entitled The classification and application of meteorological field causing heavy rainfall using Self Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm, I had the plans for carrying out some research linking to extreme weather which had occurred recently and frequently in Eastern Asia, especially, in the Western Japan. However, after the discussion with Prof. Cintia Uvo (meteorology and hydrology), Lund University, we decided to treat Central South America as well as Eastern Japan as the target of our cooperative study. Fortunately, the target area (Central South America) has easy-understandable climate features consisting of dry and wet seasons. Therefore, the specification of the target is quite a suitable for recognizing significant relationships between regional hydrological aspects and global climate change and, consequently, we will be able to get useful hints on how complicated hydrological and climate patterns should be investigated as a starting point of our study conducted for Eastern Asia, especially, the Western Japan.. Outlines of cooperative study Title of our study Climatic study of heavy rainfall and draught related to the climatology of Central South America Background Central South America is crucially strategic region for the conservation of water-resources and agricultural activity, which support Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay. Therefore, it is highly important to increase skills of medium-range precipitation forecasting (2~3 months ahead), and to evaluate the influence of present extraordinary climate and future global warming on hydrological aspects in central South America. To challenge these subjects, inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability associated with inherent hydrological aspects in long term record should be fully investigated. The climatology feature of central South America is strongly linking to South America monsoon system accompanied with the SALLJ (South America Low-Level Jet), which brings a large amount of precipitation form December to March. There are also inter-decadal variability relating indirectly to the climatology feature of central South America, like a Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation. Due to its complicated teleconnection, detailed mechanism that causes inter-decadal precipitation variability in central South America remains unknown.

6 Research background Pantanal Water level variation in central south America for past 50 years Drastic climate shift in the 1970 th Decadal climate change? Global warming? (cm) 200 Dry trend Wet trend? Water_Level_anomaly Corumba Ladario Objective Therefore, this study focuses on identifying signals of global climate change associated with a dominant trend included in hydrological long-term records observed in central South America by classifying global climate indices widely used for the analysis of climate change, applying Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm suggested by Kohonen, which is one of the pattern recognition techniques. Methodology In this study, the variation in water level anomaly in Central South America is compared with patterns of annual-based global climate indices (PDO, NAO, ENSO, SAM) widely used for the analysis of previous and recent climate change, by applying SOM (Self-Organizing Map), which represents a pattern recognition technique developed by Kohonen. This technique represents a kind of an unsupervised ANN, having powerful ability to project high-dimensionally non-linear features onto a visually understandable two-dimensional map. Therefore, the SOM technique has been widely used during recent years in various research fields. In this study, it can be expected that

7 this technique is useful for identifying complicated non-linear interrelationships among climate indices associated with local hydrological aspects. Global climate indices PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) index represents a pattern of Pacific climate variations with inter-decadal time scale of 20~30 years. The index is calculated as the leading EOF mode of the spatial distribution of monthly SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean, pole-ward of 20N. In warm phase (PDO: positive), SST in the northern region of the Pacific Ocean is colder, and SST in the subtropical Pacific Ocean is warmer than in normal phase. On the other hand, in cold phase (PDO: negative), SST in the northern region of the Pacific Ocean is warmer, and SST in the subtropical Pacific Ocean is colder than in normal phase. ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) index is defined in this study as NINO 3.4 index, which represents the average SST anomaly within the tropical region of 5 S~5 N and 120 ~170 W. Positive (negative) values of the index are closely related to El-Nino (La-Nina). NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) used for the analysis of this study is a station-based index determined from the difference in sea level pressure between Ponta Delgada, Azores and Stykkisholmur/Reykjavik, Iceland, observed since The index is linking to the intensity of Icelandic low pressure system in northern Atlantic area and high pressure system around the Azores Islands. If NAO is in a positive (negative) phase, these low and high pressure systems are enhanced (weakened). Therefore, the variation in this index may be linking to that of the trade wind flowing from the east to west in the southern Atlantic Ocean, and the evolution and variability of subsequent SALLJ, which causes the variability of precipitation in central South America. In this study, winter NAO index (monthly mean NAO from December to March) is used because the phenomenon of NAO seesaw that can be recognized in pressure anomaly in the North Atlantic Ocean is regarded as a dominant mode of the atmospheric variability in winter and, consequently, may indirectly affect the climatology of central South America. SAM (Southern hemisphere Annular Mode) used for the analysis of this study is produced in the same manner as NAO. The index represents a station-based index determined from the difference in sea level pressure between in Antarctica and in subtropical region. The index is regarded as an important factor related directly to the climatology of central South America.

8 Global climate indices PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) Target area SAM (Southern hemisphere Annular Mode ) Main results The climate shift around the late 1970s and associated drastic transition in water level anomaly could be clearly recognized through the SOM classification. Focusing on high water level during the recent period, it can be inferred that the combination of positive PDO, ENSO, and NAO plays an important role in recent high water revel. However, the investigation of possible mechanisms will be required. For example, NAO may be indirectly related to central South America climatology. If NAO is positive, pressure gradient between northern low and southern high pressure are enhanced. In this case, high pressure system and associated trade wind are strong. On the other hand, if NAO is negative, pressure gradient between northern low and southern high pressure are weakened. In this case, high pressure system and the related trade wind are not so strong. This trade wind may be related to the climatology of central South America. At first, the trade wind flows above the Amazon river basin. Then, large amount of moisture can be supplied into the trade wind by Evapo-Transpiration. After that, the wind changes its direction and goes directly towards central South America as a SALLJ because the trade wind can not exceed over the Andes Mountains. Therefore, it is highly important to find an index related to the trade wind, for interconnecting NAO and the climatology of central South America.

Possible global climate mechanism linking to local hydrological aspect in central South America PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation)

9 Possible global climate mechanism linking to local hydrological aspect in central South America PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) Target SAM (Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode ) Pacific-based mechanism Atlantic-based mechanism PDO > 0, ENSO > 0 NAO > 0?? High water level amn >100cm in the target area Possible mechanism!! Role of Atlantic trade wind NAO impact Target area Moisture transport Base map: Marengo and Soares (2004), J. climate

Visit to Sweden Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) During Aug 20-22, I visited Norrkoping (SMHI: Sweden Meteorological and Hydrological Institute), and talked about near-future

10 Visit to Sweden Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) During Aug 20-22, I visited Norrkoping (SMHI: Sweden Meteorological and Hydrological Institute), and talked about near-future cooperative study with Dr. Jonas Olsson (Hydrology). He told me that the hydrological research project (future aspects up to 100 years) on central South America of SMHI will be set up until November, In the next step, I will talk about how we cooperate on climatology study of central South America, with Prof. Cintia Uvo and Dr. Jonas Olsson. Afternoon seminar presentation I gave short presentation on my study based on ITP. The presentation is based on the first step summary of cooperative study with Prof. Cintia Uvo (Meteorology), which started with July, 2008 immediately after I arrived in Lund. Seminar title Pattern recognition of climate change associated with central South America Date: August 27th :30~15:00 (Local Time) Place: seminar room of 4th floor in the water resources engineering August 27 th 2008 afternoon seminar presentation (30 min) 私 LUND university Staffs coming from several countries as well as Swedish staffs participated in the afternoon seminar of my study Pakistan Sweden Palestine? Japan Vietnam China

11 Towards future works The outcomes obtained through ITP activities have been already presented in 6th International Symposium on Earth Science and Technology held in Fukuoka, Dec 1~2, As a next stage, I have some plans for continuing international cooperative study with Lund University. Furthermore, the outcomes will be applied to the climatology of Eastern Asia, considering past, recent and future extreme climate mechanisms, including the effect of global warming. Acknowledgement I greatly appreciate financially-supported JSPS program (International Training Program: ITP) giving me valuable experience in Lund University.

El Niño / Southern Oscillation

El Niño / Southern Oscillation Student Packet 2 Use contents of this packet as you feel appropriate. You are free to copy and use any of the material in this lesson plan. Packet Contents Introduction on