National Response to a Severe Space Weather Event

Transcription

1 SPACE WEATHER, VOL. 10,, doi: /2011sw000756, 2012 National Response to a Severe Space Weather Event Ronald Turner Published 20 March Citation: Turner, R. (2012), National Response to a Severe Space Weather Event, Space Weather, 10, doi: /2011sw The effects of space weather, while disruptive and potentially costly, are generally limited in scope, as described by NOAA s Space Weather Scales ( gov/noaascales/). However, as a recent National Research Council (NRC) workshop report notes, severe space weather can have significant societal and economic impacts [NRC, 2008], including regional power outages [Kappenman, 2010], damage to satellites [Odenwald et al., 2006], and degradation of service provided by space-based systems (primarily navigation and communication) [NRC, 2008]. Over the past few years, there has been increasing governmental concern about the prospect of an epic space weather event that could cause widespread damage with long-lasting effects [National Defense University, 2011; Holdren and Beddington, 2011; U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency et al., 2010]. In the spring of 2012, Florida s Division of Emergency Management will conduct a series of exercises focused on the potential impacts of a geomagnetic storm [Florida Division of Emergency Management, 2011]. These exercises will be used as a model for similar operations in other regions. Events that are rare but potentially catastrophic are often described by the risk-management community as lowprobability/high-consequence. Such high-impact, unexpected, but predictable crises are also known as black swans [Taleb, 2010]. In the space weather realm, the prototype for a black-swan event would be a recurrence of the Carrington superstorm that occurred in September 1859 [Cliver, 2006]. This article describes the policies now in place to coordinate nationwide preparation for and response to a major space weather event. It will also briefly discuss how the space weather community can contribute to the development of these policies. A Complex Environment The terrorist attack of September 2001, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill of 2010 all exposed serious vulnerabilities in the U.S. government s ability to coordinate an effective national response to catastrophic events. There has been steady progress over the past two administrations in improving emergency response systems. The timeline in Appendix 1a identifies many of the pertinent directives and federal documents, which are also defined in Appendix 1b. The Tenth Amendment to the Constitution declares, The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people. This statement is usually interpreted to mean that the welfare of the people is the province of the state. When disaster strikes, however, state and local governments can be overwhelmed, and the resources of the federal government may be required to support response and recovery. Significant milestones in responding to major disasters include passage of the Disaster Relief Act in 1974, establishment of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in 1979, passage of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (known as the Stafford Act) in 1988, and creation of the Federal Response Plan in For any major disaster, the president directs the federal response, working in collaboration with the governors of the affected states. The FEMA administrator will be principal advisor to the president, and FEMA coordinates federal assistance and support to save lives, prevent human suffering, or mitigate severe damage, even in the absence of a specific Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union 1 of 6

2 request for particular resources or assistance from the Governor. In such cases, the Governor of the affected State will be consulted if practicable, but this consultation will not delay or impede the provision of such accelerated Federal assistance [Paulison, 2008, p. 3]. Should a solar superstorm occur, FEMA will rely on NOAA s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) as the primary source of space weather conditions and forecasts. National Guidelines Since 2001 Since September 2001, several key presidential directives have been issued by the president of the United States with the advice and consent of the National Security Council. Under President George W. Bush, presidential directives dealing with national security were called Homeland Security Presidential Directives (HSPD). Under President Barack Obama, these directives have been designated Presidential Policy Directives (PPD). Each directive is supplemented by documents prepared by the executive branch explaining how the directive will be implemented. HSPD-5, issued in February 2003, called for a comprehensive incident management system. In December 2003, HSPD-7 identified critical infrastructure, and HSPD-8 called for better organized national preparedness. To implement HSPD-8, the Federal Response Plan was revised, becoming the National Response Plan in December 2004 and then the National Response Framework (NRF) in January The NRF provides the policy structure and mechanisms for national-level incident management. The Catastrophic Incident Annex and Catastrophic Incident Supplement to the NRF establish the context and overarching strategy for implementing and coordinating an accelerated, proactive response to no-notice or short-notice incidents where the need for federal assistance is obvious and immediate, where advance planning and resource pre-positioning were precluded, and where the exact nature of needed resources and assets is unknown. National Preparedness Plan Over the past decade the U.S. government has moved more toward all-hazard planning and an integrated approach to reducing risks and developing mitigation strategies. In late 2010 the states participated in a national preparedness task force, which in turn led to PPD-8, which replaced HSPD-8. This directive, titled National Preparedness, emphasizes integrated national frameworks and expands preparations for prevention, protection, mitigation, response, and recovery. It addresses various types of potential threats (natural and terrorist) with a view toward building scalable, flexible, and adaptable coordinating structures to align key roles and responsibilities to deliver the necessary capabilities that will protect against those threats that pose the greatest risk to the security of the Nation ( pdf, pp. 5, 3). Two additional documents were released late in 2011 as supplements to PPD-8: the National Preparedness Goal and National Preparedness System. PPD-8 asserts that the threat posed by any potential disaster including a severe space weather event will have to be assessed in relation to the impacts and probabilities of other types of catastrophe. In addition, the similarity of consequences between disasters will be evaluated to set priorities and to look for actions that can help to mitigate multiple threats. For a severe space weather event to be considered comparable to other possible threats that pose the greatest risk to the security of the Nation, there must be a consensus within the emergency response community that the threat is credible, the impact is substantial, and the combination of probability of the event and the consequences of the event is sufficiently high for it to rank with other potential disasters. If the combination of consequence and the probability is high enough, state and local governments and critical infrastructure sectors will then develop emergency response plans and the triggers that will implement them, as exist for other major disasters such as earthquakes and major hurricanes. Common elements of response with other disasters will get higher priority and more resources. A Space Weather Example The North American power grid may be vulnerable to ground-induced currents generated by a severe geomagnetic storm [Kappenman, 2010], one on the order of the great storm of May 1921 or the 1859 Carrington superstorm, which was substantially larger than the 1921 storm by many different measures [Cliver and Svalgaard, 2004]. How would the nation respond to widespread power outages and to the other short- and long-term effects of a superstorm similar to those of 1921 and 1859? The following paragraphs describe one possible scenario, consistent with the PPDs and other response documents discussed in this article. When a major space weather storm does occur, it may proceed as follows: A few days beforehand there may be one or more precursor events. These will attract the attention first 2 of 6

3 of the space weather community and then of the media and emergency planners. FEMA will likely request daily briefings from SWPC. Government agencies and the private sector will be besieged by the press for comments and opinions. Federal, state, and private-sector response networks will be put on standby status. The epic solar tsunami will probably be heralded by a historic solar flare, a massive coronal mass ejection (CME), and an intense solar particle event. SWPC will issue R 4 5 and S 4 5 warnings and call for a G 4 5 watch (see Appendix 1c). Satellites will be affected by anomalies that may lead to an interruption or even a complete failure of their mission. Communication and navigation will degrade. Media and public interest will skyrocket, and the government will take action, possibly along the following lines, consistent with the federal response to other significant national disasters: The National Security Council will be convened to prepare a message from the president to the nation; Crisis management teams will be assembled and dispatched; Federal, state, and local governments will broadcast progressively more detailed public service announcements; The private sector will implement action plans. Twelve to eighteen hours after the initial flare, a massive CME will approach the Earth. If a solar wind monitor upwind of Earth survives the initial energetic particle storm, it will detect the on-coming CME and indicate its potential to trigger an extreme geomagnetic storm. At this point, SWPC will issue a G5 warning, with minutes of lead time. The societal consequences, if any, after the CME impacts the Earth remains to be determined. How Can the Space Weather Community Contribute? The space weather community can contribute in several important ways to national security during a severe solar storm. First, it can develop models and instruments that can reliably forecast space weather. Second, it can promote public understanding of severe space weather and its potential impacts. Third, it can work with federal, state, and local governments and the private sector to communicate the risks of severe space weather. In addition, the space weather community should assist in developing consistent and appropriate public service announcements to be broadcast prior to and during all types of space weather events to ensure public safety. During severe space weather events it will be critical that the entire space weather community support national efforts to inform the public using all available media. Conclusion A structure for a coordinated national response is already in place. The political landscape is complex, but federal guidelines include the Stafford Act and HSPDs and PPDs on national preparedness. These documents establish a systematic, integrated approach for preparing for, responding to, recovering from, and mitigating the impact of disasters. PPD-8, issued on 30 March 2011, emphasizes an integrated all-hazard response. The main roles of the space weather community will be to inform policy makers and educate the public about the potential threats posed by severe space weather events. References Cliver, E. W. (2006), The 1859 space weather event: Then and now, Adv. Space Res., 38(2), , doi: /j.asr Cliver, E. W., and L. Svalgaard (2004), The 1859 solar-terrestrial disturbance and the current limits of extreme space weather activity, Sol. Phys., 224, , doi: /s z. Florida Division of Emergency Management (2011), Florida energy assurance plan training and exercises, RFP-DEM-10/11 015, Orlando, Fla. [Available at ADP htm.] Holdren, J. P., and J. Beddington (2011), Celestial storm warnings, New York Times, 10 March. [Available at opinion/11iht-edholdren11.html.] Kappenman, J. (2010), Geomagnetic Storms and Their Impacts on the U.S. Power Grid, Meta-R-319, 196 pp., Metatech Corp., Goleta, Calif. [Available at National Defense University (2011), Space weather and the U.S. electrical grid, Res. Highlights, 1(4), 12. [Available at docuploaded/research%20highlights%20vol%201%20no%204%20 hyperlinks.pdf.] National Research Council (2008), Severe Space Weather Events Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report, 144 pp., Natl. Acad. Press, Washington, D. C. Odenwald, S., J. Green, and W. Taylor (2006), Forecasting the impact of an 1859-calibre superstorm on satellite resources, Adv. Space Res., 38(2), , doi: /j.asr Paulison, R. D. (2008), Nuclear terrorism: Providing medical care and meeting basic needs in the aftermath The federal response, 26 June, Dep. of Homeland Security, Washington, D. C. [Available at hsgac.senate.gov/hearings/nuclear-terrorism-providing-medical-careand-meeting-basic-needs-in-the-aftermath-the-federal-response.] Taleb, N. N. (2010), The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2nd ed., Random House, New York. U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency et al. (2010), Managing critical disasters in the transatlantic domain The case of a geomagnetic storm: Workshop summary, 30 pp., Dep. of Homeland Security, Washington, D. C. Ronald Turner is a Fellow at ANSER (Analytic Services, Inc.), in Arlington, Va. 3 of 6

4 Appendix Appendix 1a. Timeline showing the evolution of U.S. emergency preparedness strategic response to potential threats from space weather events. s 4 of 6

5 Appendix 1b. Brief descriptions of the Stafford Act and three federal directives on national preparedness and emergency response. 5 of 6

6 Appendix 1c. Based on NOAA s Space Weather Scales, this table shows the anticipated effects of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts on power supplies, spacecraft and satellite operations, and navigation. Possible consequences are described for events categorized as extreme and severe. 6 of 6