WWOSC Montreal August 18, 2014

Transcription

1 The U.S. National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) Project Daniel P. Eleuterio, Office of Naval Research Jessie Carman, NOAA Office of Ocean and Atmosphere Research Fred Toepfer, NOAA National Weather Service Dave McCarren, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command WWOSC Montreal August 18, 2014 The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 1

2 U.S. National ESPC Overview An interagency collaboration since 2010, for coordination of research to operations of a National Earth System analysis and prediction capability. Seeks improved coordination of global prediction of weather, ocean, and sea ice conditions at weather to seasonal timescales. Common prediction requirements and forecast model standards that enable agencies to improve leverage and collaboration. Cooperative focus projects to assess predictability of global scale high impact environmental conditions in research with an eye towards operations. Towards an multi-model, ensemble based, air-sea-land coupled global prediction capability. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 2

3 Community and Agency Calls to Action An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the Twenty-First Century (Shapiro et al. 2010) Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Subseasonal-to- Seasonal Prediction (Brunet et al. 2010) Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability (Weller, 2010) A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling (NRC Press, 2012) Arctic Security Considerations and the U.S. Navy s Roadmap for the Arctic (Titley and St. John, 2009) The Uncoordinated Giant: Why U.S. Weather Research and Prediction are not Achieving their Potential (Mass, 2006) The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 3

4 Exploit Sources of Extended Range Predictability through Global Coupled Modeling R. Zhang, 2007 The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 4

5 Earth System Modeling Partnerships: NOPP HFIP NMME USGCRP USCLIVAR NUOPC WGNE U.S. National ESPC The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 5

6 Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and the Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) ESPS is a collection of NUOPCcompliant Earth system component and model codes interoperable, documented, available for integration/use. Implementation is part of a NOPP project awarded under National ESPC: An Integration and Evaluation Framework for ESPC Coupled Models. The NUOPC Interoperability Layer is: a set of rules for coding an ESMFcompliant Earth system components and downloadable model architecture. ESPS website with draft inclusion criteria and list of candidate models (Coupled, Atmosphere, Ocean, Ice, and Wave): DeLuca et al (in prep.) The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 6

7 National ESPC Thrusts Build the next generation operational U.S. Inter- Agency Environmental Prediction Systems: Advance computational and environmental numerical prediction science and technology through coupled model development Identify and quantify uncertainty and risk though probabilistic prediction: multi-model ensembles Enhance our understanding of the complex interactions of the earth environmental system through process studies Improve operational predictive capability with better skill scores and longer lead times through technology transition Provide insight and guidance for informed decisions in an increasingly complex and changing global human enterprise Implement an ESPC Suite across partner Operational Prediction Centers The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 7

8 NOAA Earth System Prediction R2O NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) in development. Recent UCAR review: Production suite is too complex: go to unified modeling approach? Additional drivers: CFS-v3, NMME, etc. Incremental improvement of existing systems, because Forklift replacements are challenging. Moving toward community modeling approaches: CRTM, GSI, GFS, HWRF, WW3, HYCOM,. Moving toward coupled modeling: NEMS reaching maturity with components ~ Basic concepts are fairly solid, but details of system redesign are still in progress. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 8

9 Multi-Model Strategies Nowcast (0 18 hrs) HRRE, WRF, COAMPS OS, etc. Short Range (0 84 hrs) Hurricane Intensity Ensemble HFIP Stream 1.5 (HWRF, COAMPS TC, etc.) Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Medium Range (0 16 days, extending to 32 by 2016) NUOPC/NAEFS Navy, NWS, Air Force, Canada Extended Range (1 to 9 months) National Multi Model Ensemble NWS, Canada, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, Academia (IRI, COLA, etc.) The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 9

10 U.S. Navy Implementation of Earth System Models We provide worldwide forecasts to support DoD Operations from the tropics to the poles, and from the depths of the ocean to the edges of space, across the The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 10 coast to support stability operations, humanitarian assistance and 10 disaster relief.

11 U.S. Navy Implementation of Earth System Models Home Field Advantage at the Away Games We provide worldwide forecasts to support DoD Operations from the tropics to the poles, and from the depths of the ocean to the edges of space, across the The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 11 coast to support stability operations, humanitarian assistance and 11 disaster relief.

12 Global Benefits of Earth System Prediction Seasonally Ice Free Arctic Maritime Security/Global Commerce Sudden Stratospheric Warming Security Commerce Maritime Domain Awareness Water Scarcity Regional Assistance Global Security Frequent Weather Extremes Civil Support Atmospheric Rivers Humanitarian Assistance/ Disaster Relief Extreme Drought Conditions Humanitarian Assistance/ Disaster Relief Space Weather Events Global Maritime Operations and Satellite Communication Navy-ESPC Model Component: Ocean The National Earth System Prediction Capability Land Sea Ice Air Trop/ Strat Tropical Cyclogensis, Intensification and ET Maritime Ops Humanitarian Assistance/ Disaster Relief Air Strat/ Meso National ESPC 12

13 Global Coupled Forecast Model Development Navy ESPC Highlights - Infrastructure Design infrastructure for operational implementation for coupled system Define implementation across operational systems, architecture requirements, cycling setup including DA Initial Design published as Naval Research Laboratory Technical Report in search under author Metzger The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 13

14 Three-Month Running Mean 500 mb Height Anomaly Correlations for the NHEM The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 14

15 NAVGEM/ HYCOM Progress - Example Coupled NAVGEM / HYCOM 30-day integrations from 1 Nov 2011 The sensitivity of MJO predictive skill in the coupled system to modifications of the NAVGEM physics as compared to airsea interaction is a topic of ongoing research. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 15

16 NAVGEM Progress - Example Initial coupled hindcasts for the DYNAMO field campaign period showed air-sea coupling improved MJO initiation and phase speed but also over-developed tropical cyclone and convective intensification in the Indian Ocean-West Pacific basins. Preliminary tests with modified physics in NAVGEM have shown encouraging improvements in predictions of area-wide mean cyclonic vorticity development. Enhanced diagnostics will be added to better measure prediction of cyclogenesis. DYNAMO (Dynamics of the Madden Julian Oscillation) The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 16

17 Navy ESPC Progress - Example Standard bulk formula in HYCOM using 10m winds was compared to an eddy-wind interaction formula using the 10 m winds and ocean surface velocity using the same atmospheric forcing for The new approach improves the mean eddy pathways overall but doesn't produce the spread of pathways in the observations. standard stress formulation stress formulation including wind-current shear drifter observations Gulf Stream Kuroshio Agulhas 17 The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 17

18 Navy ESPC Progress - Example First US Navy long term seasonal forecasts of sea ice Observed Minimum NRL Seasonal Prediction Sept 2013 minimum extent Observed 4.81 Mkm 2 ACNFS estimate 4.9 Mkm 2 NRL recently started participating in the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)/ Sea Ice Prediction Network comparisons of September Arctic sea ice minimum extent prediction. The Navy s Arctic Cap Nowcast/ Forecast System (ACNFS) HYCOM/CICE with an Ensemble of prescribed forcing from NOGAPS climatology ( ) members all initialized from 01 May 2013 observed ocean conditions. Future efforts will use the fully coupled air/ocean/sea ice configuration. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 18

19 Navy ESPC Progress - Example Arctic and Antarctic Atmosphere & Sea-Ice Coupling NAVGEM CICE NAVGEM CICE 2-way Allowing inter-model feedbacks as part of a two-way coupled system produces a realistic forecast, which permits use for further investigation into specific model biases and important coupling mechanisms. Sea Ice/Ground Temperature (K) The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 19

20 Navy ESPC: Operational Implementation System projected for operations in 2018 Forecast Time Scale, Frequency Atmosphere NAVGEM Ocean HYCOM Ice CICE Waves WW3 Land- Surface NAVGEM- LSM Aerosol NAAPS Deterministic short term 0-10 days, daily 19 km 80 levels (T681L80) 1 1/25 (4.5 km) 2 41 layers 1/25 (4.5 km) 1/8 (14 km) 3/16 (21 km) 3/16 (21 km) Deterministic long term 0-30 days, weekly 19 km 80 levels (T681L80) 1 1/12 (9 km) 41 layers 1/12 (9 km) 1/4 (28 km) 3/16 (21 km) 3/16 (21 km) Probabilistic long term 0-90 days, weekly 37 km 50 levels (T359L50) 1/12 (9 km) 41 layers 1/12 (9 km) 1/4 (28 km) 1/3 (37 km) 1/3 (37 km) 1 Horizontal resolution at the equator The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 20

21 NRC Study on Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting This study will identify: Potential sources of predictability and assess their relative value for advancing predictive skill; Process studies for incorporating new sources of predictability into forecast models; Opportunities for application and advancement of atmosphere-oceanland-sea ice coupled models at timescales of a few days to months; Key observations needed for model initialization and verification of S2S forecasts; Techniques for uncertainty quantification and verification of probabilistic products; and Infrastructure requirements for computational, data storage and communication/ visualization techniques needed to make high resolution data assimilating global coupled ensembles an operational reality. The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 21

22 The call for Extended Range Products in the S2S Gap When initialized anywhere in phase space, the solution collapses toward this attractor. However, behavior of the trajectory is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions. -- Ed Lorenz (1963) Every day meteorologists predict next week s weather..research is underway to develop models that will help them make predictions on an even longer timescale, seasonal forecasts of monsoon rains for example. --Tim Palmer, A weather eye on unpredictability (1991) Nearly 25 years later are we as far along as we should be? The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 22