Aiolos Forecast Studio. Home
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1 Aiolos Forecast Studio Home
2 Team On Tour Niklas Berg Manager Director Alexander Nordling Head of Customer Portfolio Christer Modin Head of Model Development Marie Ek Head of Customer Relations
3 Home Vitec Software Group Vitec Energy
4 Founded in 1985 Home About us AFS Models Services Get started Vitec was founded in 1985 by Lars Stenlund and Olov Sandberg. Vitec is a spin-off from Umeå University. Our forecasting software was the second product being developed. We develop and deliver standardized software for industry-specific needs.
5 Our employees Home About us AFS Models Services Get started 250 Denmark 100 Norway Bergen Oslo Stavanger Fredericia Odense Östersund Västerås Linköping Göteborg Kalmar Köpenhamn 250 Sweden Malmö Umeå Tampere Espoo Lahti Stockholm 100 Finland 700 in total
6 Aiolos Forecast Studio Home
7 Customers Home About us AFS Models Services Get started Yearly Aiolos user group meetings Aiolos reference group And 60 more
8 Agenda Overview presentation of Aiolos Forecast Studio Model theory how does our forecasting models work? Automatic optimization of forecasting models Aiolos Model Studio - create your own models within Aiolos Lunch Multiple weather forecast module how to improve the forecast accuracy by using several weather institutes Weight/Evaluate Internal and external forecasts for best accuracy Aiolos Market Data Aiolos Quality Service System configuration
9 Model portfolio Home About us AFS Models Services Get started Electricity Load Gas Load District Heating Load Wind Power Production Solar Power Production Hydro Power Production
10 Aiolos Model Studio Create your own models and adjust the ones available in Aiolos. A MatLab look alike tool/environment VS Aiolos Forecast Studio Microsoft Visual Studio Software Development Environment
11 Intelligent aggregation of forecast series Flexible tree structure with multiple levels Series can be a linear combination of other series. Unique and optimal factors calculated by the system for several forecast horizons. Weighting of series: - Weather stations Klicka på symbolen för att infoga bild här. Bilden ska vara utfallande (undantag frilagda objekt) och får inte vara bredare än vad stödlinjen visar. Bilden placeras alltid under den grå fliken. - Forecasting models within Aiolos - Aiolos vs external forecasts - Top Down/Bottom Up VITEC ENERGY AB INFO.ENERGY@VITEC.E
12 Weightings Home About us AFS Models Services Get started What to weight? Weather suppliers Weather stations Forecasting system suppliers Models within Aiolos Bottom up/top Down
13 Multiple weather institutes Home About us AFS Models Services Get started
14 Multiple weather institutes Home About us AFS Models Services Get started
15 Forecast Supplier Global Data Local Model Resolution Updates Length Data available from Region Parameters Weather service DMU VHR GFS Eta 10 km 01:50, 7:50, 13:50, 19:50 Hourly 72 hours Northern/Central Europe (site on demand) 17 (T, W, G, H, P (2m, 80m, 800m), Pc, C) FMI EC HARMONIE/ HIRLAM 2,5/7,5 Check every hour) Hourly 48 hours Nordic/Europe (Search on name, outside Finland only major cities) 7 (T, P, H, W, D, C, Pc) Meteogroup* EC,GFS HIRLAM,WRF Customized Customized Hourly 72 hours Customized Customized Customized Metoffice Unified Unified 12 km 01:53, 07:53, 13:53, 19:53 3-hourly 120 hours Global/focus on North- West Europé (Fixed sites, >4000 world wide) 7 (W, D, T, C, P, H, F) SMHI OPEN ACCESS EC AROME 2,5 km 00:20, 03:50, 07:50, 11:20, 15:20, 17:50 Hourly 48 hours, 3-6- hourly 216 hours Northern Europe (site on demand) 7 (T, W, D, H, C, P, Pc) StormGeo* Mixed Mixed Customized Customized Customized Customized Customized Customized DWD Mixed (EC, ICON) MOSMIX 03,09,15, Global (Site on demand, sites) 7(T, W, D, P, C, Pr, G) YR EC AROME 2,5 km Check every hour Hourly 48 hours, 3-6- hourly 216 hours Northern Europé/Global (site on demand) 6 (T, W, D, P, C, Pr) Foreca EC, GFS AROME, HIRLAM 2,5 km Hourly 48 hours. 3- Hourly 48 hours, 3-6-hourly 240 hours 2016 Global (Site on demand)
16 Services EDUCANDI Web based education once a month Recorded sessions For a free number of users AIOLOS QUALITY SERVICE Data check Forecast check Error alerts Regular set up control
17 Aiolos Quality Service Home About us AFS Models Services Get started
18 Autotune Let the system optimize the systems settings in Aiolos by Autotune. VITEC ENERGY AB
19 Aiolos Follow Up Flexible tool for evaluation of Forecast accuracy Different system/weather suppliers Combinations of suppliers of system/weather suppliers Weather stations Bottom Up/Top Down Manual vs automatic forecast Etc..
20 The Studio - Overview Home About us AFS Models Services Get started External forecast providers Series Map Aiolos Forecast Studio Auto Tune Forecast model tuning Day types Aiolos Model Studio/Analytics Real time values System settings Historical values Storage Interface GUI Multipe models Weighted Forecast Multiple Observations Multiple Weather Forecasts Follow Up Aiolos Quality Service Manual Validation/Simulation/Adjustments (Optional) Users Partner Institutes + others Market Data (e.g. Nordpool) Export (Example)
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