TTD APPENDIX 5: AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Transcription

1 TTD APPENDIX 5: AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS APPENDIX SUMMARY Aviation activity forecasts involve many variables. Relationships between activity indicators and variables involve regression analyses to determine correlation, or how related sets of independent variables are. Correlated variables are used to form an equation which is then tied to variable growth rates and volatilities in order to forecast future aviation activity. Forecasts are presented at the summary level in the chapter, and details about the specific variables and correlations are not shown. The purpose of this appendix is to show the variables that went into the forecasts for each activity indicator, and to document the growth rates and volatilities used to forecast future activity. This chapter is organized into the following sections. Based Aircraft o Non-Training Single Engine o Jet o Non-Training Multi-Engine o Non-Training Helicopter o Training Based Aircraft Aircraft Operations o Non-Training Local Operations o Fixed Wing Training Local Operations o Helicopter Training Local Operations o Itinerant Operations o Itinerant Jet Operations A5-1

2 A5.1 Based Aircraft Forecasts FIGURE A5-1: NON-TRAINING SINGLE ENGINE FORECASTS TABLE A5-1: NON-TRAINING SINGLE ENGINE FORECAST VARIABLES VARIABLE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT FORECASTED ANNUAL GROWTH RATE HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Wood Product Manufacturing Earnings % 8.70% GA Hours Flown % 4.64% Furniture & Related Manufacturing Earnings % 11.21% Pipeline Transportation Earnings % 2.01% National Local Aircraft Operations % 4.17% Sources: FAA TAF, Troutdale Airport Traffic Control Tower, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Correlation Coefficient: Considers data from January 1, 2004 December 31, 2013 Forecasted Growth Rate: Average annual rate Historical Volatility: Standard deviation of rate of change A5-2

3 FIGURE A5-2: JET FORECASTS TABLE A5-2: JET FORECAST VARIABLES VARIABLE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT FORECASTED ANNUAL GROWTH RATE HISTORICAL VOLATILITY National Itinerant Aircraft Operations % 3.24% National Local Aircraft Operations % 4.17% Wood Product Manufacturing Earnings % 8.70% National Average Pilot Age % 1.08% National GA Hours Flown % 4.64% Sources: FAA TAF, Troutdale Airport Traffic Control Tower, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Correlation Coefficient: Considers data from January 1, 2004 December 31, 2013 Forecasted Growth Rate: Average annual rate Historical Volatility: Standard deviation of rate of change A5-3

4 FIGURE A5-3: NON-TRAINING MULTI-ENGINE FORECASTS TABLE A5-3: NON-TRAINING MULTI-ENGINE FORECAST VARIABLES VARIABLE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT FORECASTED ANNUAL GROWTH RATE HISTORICAL VOLATILITY 100LL Fuel Price (Leaded AvGas) % 8.63% National Itinerant Aircraft Operations % 3.24% National Local Aircraft Operations % 4.17% National Multi Engine Fleet % 4.99% Wood Product Manufacturing Earnings % 8.70% Sources: FAA TAF, Troutdale Airport Traffic Control Tower, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Correlation Coefficient: Considers data from January 1, 2004 December 31, 2013 Forecasted Growth Rate: Average annual rate Historical Volatility: Standard deviation of rate of change A5-4

5 FIGURE A5-4: NON-TRAINING HELICOPTER FORECASTS TABLE A5-4: NON-TRAINING HELICOPTER FORECAST VARIABLES VARIABLE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT FORECASTED ANNUAL GROWTH RATE HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Unemployment in Portland MSA % 30.99% Pipeline Transportation Earnings % 19.49% Broadcasting, Except Internet Earnings % 5.95% Military Earnings % 8.48% State and Local Government Earnings % 3.14% Sources: FAA TAF, Troutdale Airport Traffic Control Tower, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Correlation Coefficient: Considers data from January 1, 2004 December 31, 2013 Forecasted Growth Rate: Average annual rate Historical Volatility: Standard deviation of rate of change A5-5

6 TABLE A5-5: TRAINING BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST Year Single Engine Jet Multi-Engine Helicopter Total CAGR 0.53% 1.12% 2.38% 1.01% CAGR 13.67% 14.87% 16.23% A5-6

7 A5.2 Aircraft Operations Forecasts FIGURE A5-5: NON-TRAINING LOCAL FORECASTS TABLE A5-6: NON-TRAINING OPERATIONS FORECAST VARIABLES VARIABLE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT FORECASTED ANNUAL GROWTH RATE HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Wood Product Manufacturing Earnings % 8.70% National Multi Engine Fleet % 4.99% Furniture and related product manufacturing Earnings % 11.21% National Local Aircraft Operations % 4.17% National GA Hours Flown % 4.64% Sources: FAA TAF, Troutdale Airport Traffic Control Tower, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Correlation Coefficient: Considers data from January 1, 2004 December 31, 2013 Forecasted Growth Rate: Average annual rate Historical Volatility: Standard deviation of rate of change A5-7

8 FIGURE A5-6: FIXED WING-TRAINING LOCAL OPERATIONS FIGURE A5-7: HELICOPTER-TRAINING LOCAL OPERATIONS A5-8

9 TABLE A5-7: TRAINING OPERATIONS FORECASTS (10 TH PERCENTILE) A5-9

10 TABLE A5-8: TRAINING OPERATIONS FORECASTS (50 TH PERCENTILE) A5-10

11 TABLE A5-9: TRAINING OPERATIONS FORECASTS (90 TH PERCENTILE) A5-11

12 FIGURE A5-8: ITINERANT OPERATONS FORECASTS TABLE A5-10: ITINERANT OPERATIONS FORECAST VARIABLES VARIABLE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT FORECASTED ANNUAL GROWTH RATE HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Telecommunications Wages % 5.17% National Itinerant Aircraft Operations % 3.24% National Local Aircraft Operations % 4.17% National GA Hours Flown % 4.64% Wood Product Manufacturing Earnings % 8.70% Sources: FAA TAF, Troutdale Airport Traffic Control Tower, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Correlation Coefficient: Considers data from January 1, 2004 December 31, 2013 Forecasted Growth Rate: Average annual rate Historical Volatility: Standard deviation of rate of change A5-12

13 FIGURE A5-9: ITINERANT JET OPERATONS FORECASTS Jet operations are forecast using corresponding growth from the based jet forecast. Independent regression analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were not used to prepare this forecast. A5-13