EUROCONTROL. Two-Year Forecast. December 2012 Flight Movements EUROCONTROL

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1 EUROCONTRO Two-Year Forecast December 2012 Flight Movements EUROCONTRO

2 EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 v1.0 22/12/12 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December Summary: A weaker-than-expected Winter schedule means 2012 will end lower than forecast. The outlook for 2013 remains around zero flight growth, but with cuts in the economic forecast in the pipeline, a small downward revision is probable at the next update. With fuel prices remaining painfully high and the economic recovery delayed yet again, between September and November 2012, European flight counts remained at lower levels than in 2011 and Winter saw heavy reductions in flights by a number of carriers. ased on the news and schedule data that were available at the time, in September the forecast was that there would be a slight recovery relative to the previous Winter, albeit not in every State. The cutting, however, has continued leading to a revision downwards of the 2012 traffic forecast to average a decline of 2.2% over Europe is forecasted for a 0.1% decline of traffic across Europe, similar to last September s forecast, although with more variation at the individual state level. The uncertainty around this forecast is relatively high around 1.4%, but this illustrates the continuing uncertainty around the economic situation in Europe is expected to show signs of recovery (2.4% growth, ±0.7%). Total 2014 flights are still forecast to be around 3% below the 2008 peak year. The forecast will next be updated in February A downward revision in the economic forecast is in the pipeline, and is expected to push the 2013 forecast lower at the next update. Figure 1. Growth of IFR movements in 2012 (Uncertainty is typically 0.1% percentage points.)

3 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc INTRODUCTION The Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) of EUROCONTRO produces a short-term (two year) forecast of IFR flights in Europe. This is published four times per year: independently in May and December, and as an integral part of the medium-term forecast in February and September. This update of the flight forecast uses the improved method that was first put into operation in February 2009 and enhanced in February This method is outlined in Annex A. Reporting of the forecast for this summary report remains focused on the main flows for each State, and for the EUROCONTRO Statistical Reference Area (ESRA08). The ESRA08 1 represents the whole of Europe. It is a large, stable subset of the Member States used for comparison purposes since In the remainder of this document: Section 2 looks at what has changed since the last forecast, and what this says about trends in growth. Section 3 summarizes the forecast for 2012 and Section 4 outlines the forecast for Section 5 discusses the risks attached to the forecast. The next short-term forecast will be published at the end of February 2013 as part of the seven-year flight forecast update. 1 See for a map of ESRA08. V1.0 Page: 2

4 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc RECENT TRENDS etween September and November 2012, European flight counts remained at lower levels than in Since the beginning of the year, European traffic averaged around 2.2% below last year s figures. Over the Summer, traffic followed the forecast quite closely, but following the update to the forecast published in September, the traffic saw lower growth than expected (see Figure 2). This effect has grown with the beginning of the winter schedule, with traffic growth moving below the low forecast. Winter saw heavy reductions in flights by a number of carriers. ased on the news and schedule data that were available at the time, in September the forecast was that there would be a slight recovery relative to the previous Winter, albeit not in every State. The cutting, however, has continued. The busiest three States saw fairly stable change over the summer -1%-2% (Figure 3), but France and Germany are now seeing reduced traffic since the beginning of the winter schedule. Only the UK has seen traffic stabilise to around 0%. For the main contributors to the European traffic, as shown in Germany is still losing traffic by 1,6% mainly because of their weak internal traffic but also because of recent stronger losses in arrival, departures and overflights. France is losing traffic again after a stronger summer, because of weaker flows for overflights, internals and arrivals/departures. owever, its domestic market is not losing as much as those of the other main countries, except UK. UK s traffic has lost 1,3% since the beginning of the year. owever, its arrivals/departures numbers have increased in November, stabilising its overall traffic on that month compared to last year. ut one improved month does not make a recovery. Since the beginning of the year, Italy s overflights have grown by 1.5%, a counter-effect of last year decline following the Arab spring and ibyan exclusion area, but this has not compensated for its reduction in traffic, mainly domestic (by 8%). Spanish traffic continues to drop, losing more than 6% compared last year in November because of losses of more than 17% in internal traffic combined with a further decline in arrivals and departures of about 4%. Figure 2. Traffic growth compared to September 2012 forecast growth shows further flight losses as of the winter schedule. V1.0 Page: 3

5 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 Figure 3. Recent evolution of traffic in five of the busiest European states shows a generally weaker end to the year. Figure 4 shows the states that contributed the most to changes in traffic flows over Europe between September and November There are two groups of states: Those states that have lost traffic, which form the majority: all the busiest ones, such as Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain have lost traffic during the last three months. Compared to the summer, the losses are particularly stronger in Germany and in the Mediterranean countries, in particular in Spain (and the Canaries), Italy and Greece. As previously observed, these figures were also impacted by the bankruptcy of airlines, such as Spanair for Spain, and Malev in ungary, but also by restructuring of others that have cut their traffic like Finnair in Finland, Air erlin in Germany and Czech Airlines in the Czech Republic. On the other hand, Turkey was the main contributor of additional flights followed by Norway. owever, their modest growth rates did not compensate for the general reduction elsewhere. Figure 4. States contributing much in changing traffic flows in the European network in September-November 2012 period (threshold= 25 flight/day). V1.0 Page: 4

6 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 Figure 5 provides information about the recent growth per market segment in Europe: The charter segment is on average growing at 3% since January. owever, these strong figures do not mean huge volumes of charter traffic but are rather a sign of the recovery of traffic one year after the beginning of the political unrest around North Africa that generated a sudden drop in traffic for that particular segment. The low-cost segment, losing around 5% of its traffic at the beginning of the year, is now back to a 2% growth since the beginning of the year due to a better summer, but it is declining again since the first weeks of the Winter schedule. The traditional-scheduled market segment remains weak around 4% lower than in 2011 with monthly figures that have remained stable since January. usiness and cargo traffic remain also low, both losing traffic in 2012 compared to 2011 around 3.5%. Figure 5. Growth per market segment since the beginning of the year. Charter segment growth since February is a bounce-back from the drop in traffic for this particular segment last year associated to the North-African unrest. Figure 6 shows traffic growth to the top 6 destinations outside Europe. Russia remains the main source of growth for the traffic, even though to a lesser extent than last year, with the United Arab Emirates whose addition to European traffic has remained stable throughout the year. Traffic to the United States and Morocco, which decreased at the beginning of the year and slightly came back to growth over the summer are now reducing again, following the same trend as traffic in the main European countries since the beginning of the Winter Schedule. On the contrary to these last two countries, traffic to Israel that declined at the beginning of the year now seems to remain growing since the summer. The increase in flights since February 2012 to Egypt, which resulted from a partial recovery from the losses of last year, is currently over and traffic is reducing again, perhaps due to renewed political uncertainty or the weak economic situation in Europe. In that respect, Figure 7 provides additional information about the departures from Europe towards some Northern African countries. Two years after the beginning of the North-African unrest, the growth figures should not be misleading: growth is back, but traffic to and from Egypt is still operating at lower levels than in 2010, levels that have not increased since October last year. After the re-opening of the ibyan exclusion area, the traffic recovery to ibya also appears to be slower than expected whereas the ibyan overflights are now back, generating route changes in the overflights of other Mediterranean countries: for example the overflights over Malta going to or coming from Southern and Eastern Africa from/to Europe are now increasing as these flights leave the Adriatic coast where they flew last year, boosting the overflights of the countries there. V1.0 Page: 5

7 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 Figure 6. Main changes in flows from outside Europe in the last three months. Figure 7. Flights from Europe to the Northern African countries are recovering only gradually from the Arab Spring. Past 2010 volumes are not yet reached after a period of almost 2 years. V1.0 Page: 6

8 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc TE FORECAST FOR 2012 AND 2013 The forecast for 2012 has been revised downwards compared to the September publication averaging for Europe a decline of traffic by 2.2% compared to The statistical forecast says the uncertainty around this forecast is ±0.1%, which is small because there is only one month left to forecast. These results are thus already a good snapshot of what the flight figures will be in Europe in Details per state and region are provided in Annex as well as in the map in Figure 1. The traffic forecast of most countries has been revised downwards following the recent weak traffic trends (see Figure 1). The forecast for the whole of 2013 is now for 0.1% decline across Europe (see Figure 9). This is essentially the same as the 0% in the September 2012 Forecast 2. The uncertainty around this forecast is of 1.4% which is relatively high but illustrates well the uncertainty around the economical situation in Europe. As Oxford Economics has reviewed its GDP growth forecast down for 2013 in Europe by 0.3 percentage points between August and November 2012, it would not be surprising to see this 2013 forecast reviewed downwards in the February 2013 release when these economic figures are updated. Note that this forecast has also no longer assumed a recovery to 2010 levels of the traffic to Egypt and ibya in the near future but has rather counted on current observed trends to generate the flight forecast of the flows that could be impacted. This revised assumption was taken following the recent growths of traffic to these countries that have been slower than expected (see Figure 7). Figure 8 compares the new short-term forecast for 2012 as a whole with the one published in September Some of these differences are also true for the forecast of 2013: The traffic of the busiest countries has been revised downwards following the recent trends that are detailed in Section 2.both in 2012 but also in the forecast for The forecast of the biggest Mediterranean countries, i.e. Italy, Spain and Greece has been mainly affected downwards by the weakness of their domestic traffic, arrivals and departures following their economies that remain weak. Weaker than expected domestic traffic, arrivals and departures have also driven the forecast down around central Europe across a zone grouping the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, ulgaria and FYROM. If this can be attributed to weaker economies, this is also linked to airlines failures, such as Malev in ungary, and to airlines restructuring in an attempt to cut costs and optimise their network, as in the Czech Republic, that have generated many flights cuts.. A similar situation has been observed in Finland too. Around the Adriatic, the traffic forecast of many countries has again been revised downwards as a consequence of the absence of recovery of the traffic towards Egypt that was still expected in the September forecast. Furthermore, overflights between Western Europe (e.g. France, Germany and UK) and Southern and Eastern Africa have now left the area to come back to their previous routes over Italy, Malta and ibya, adding a decrease to already low trends and impacting the forecast consequently. Flight routes between Western Europe (e.g. France, Germany and UK) and Turkey or the Middle East also continue to leave the Adriatic to fly further North, for example over ungary, Romania and ulgaria. This has further affected down the forecast growth of the flights around the Adriatic. Such a change in the traffic patterns might be explained by changes of airlines strategies that wish to avoid areas with temporary high delays, such as Cyprus. More recently, traffic to the Middle-East has also moved even further North and East across Ukraine, mainly impacting the overflights of ulgaria and Turkey that have become weaker and whose forecast has been revised downwards accordingly. Such a change seems also to have affected the Czech Republic and Slovakia that have recently lost overflights and whose forecast has also been revised downwards in The forecast traffic for Iceland remains high for 2012 but this is still due to an artificial level shift of its total traffic associated to the fact that its domestic traffic is only available since the beginning of 2012, thus generating a strong growth for ecause of the lack of historical figures, the forecast must also be taken cautiously as a reliable trend for the internal flights could not be identified, possibly affecting the total forecast of future years. 2 Doc475 EUROCONTRO 7-Year Forecast: IFR Flight Movements v1.1 V1.0 Page: 7

9 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 Figure 8. Difference between the new forecast and the previous Short-Term Forecast, in terms of total growth in Figure 9.Forecast for Stagnation on ESRA level. (Uncertainty is typically 1.4 percentage points, also 1.4 for States with 1million flights) 3 Note that because internal flows are often small, percentage changes can be large, which is why many of the largest circles are in the internal column. V1.0 Page: 8

10 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc TE OUTOOK FOR 2014 The span of the forecast extends to the end of 2014 for which Figure 10 shows the forecast is expected to be for 2.4% growth across Europe with an uncertainty around this forecast is around 0.7%. Thus there is a recovery, but one which still in historical terms is showing weak growth. Total 2014 flights are still forecast to be around 3% below the 2008 peak. Figure 10. Forecast for (Uncertainty is typically 0.7 percentage points, 0.7 for States with 1million flights) V1.0 Page: 9

11 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc RISKS TO TE FORECAST Users of the forecast are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast is prepared in the conditions of unstable economic situation with serious risk of further aggravation and downside effects on traffic development. The main sources of uncertainty to the forecast are: The economic indicators of the medium term forecast were updated in August 2012 at the time of further reforms to ensure the stability of the banking system. The economic measures and budget cuts of the states will contribute to future growth, but economic recovery might take longer than expected. Spain, Greece and Italy economic growths are forecasted to be still negative. Currently, situation in the zone leaves the risk of further deterioration open. Along with the actual uncertainty in economic growth, severe cuts in spending and tax hikes have been put in place by European States to balance their budgets (eg Spain, France). Such state control measures might lead to industrial unrest. The same applies for the private sector where air industry operators might have to handle protest from the workforce against saving plans (day-today flight. Since the beginning of the year, several airlines have filed for bankruptcy and more such situations may happen in the current economic context. The continuing high fuel prices limit airlines willingness to increase flight frequencies if that would threaten load factors. Furthermore, with fuel accounting for 25-35% or even more of costs of the airlines, this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for customer and thus on demand that could impacted further downwards in already difficult economical times. owever, the current record high-level load factors could mean a lower ability to absorb passenger growth when the economical situation improves. This could, on the other hand, generate a stronger growth than expected. The disruption resulting from the Arab spring and ibyan exclusion in the beginning of 2011 has had an impact on overflights for Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Croatia, FYROM, Greece, Italy, Malta and Slovenia. As no significant recovery has been observed in the traffic towards Egypt since October last year (see Figure 7), i.e. only a succession of ups and downs in the traffic, no more recovery back to 2010 levels has been anticipated. This could be an upward risk if the political situation were to stabilise in the near future. As we have seen in Northern Africa, tourism trends are quite variable and are likely to affect flight patterns if any further disruptions were to happen in the area or around the Middle-East. Very recent data has suggested overflight moves from the Adriatic coast towards a Czech Republic-Romania-ulgaria corridor, a change opposite to last year s change. These overflight routings along the South-East axis remain quite fluid and can impact the growth figures of the traffic in the region either upwards or downwards. This is also true for small countries such as Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. More generally, future network changes (eg. new routes) are not modeled by the forecast. Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters. The last seven years have not been quiet ones for aviation. There is no reason to believe the next seven years will be uneventful, with the effects of a further volcano eruption or an 1N1 flu pandemic being some of the risks. The impact on air traffic could be a temporary one, or more significant. Participation of aviation in the Emission Trading Scheme, currently under intense debate, is nevertheless integrated into the forecast. owever, such regulatory measures (eg new tax regimes or further environmental limits) contribute to the uncertainty of air transport growth and can change rapidly the local outlook for flight growth. V1.0 Page: 10

12 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 A. SORT-TERM FORECAST METOD The short-term forecast method implemented in February 2009 combines inputs from several forecasts. Time-series modeling plays a large part. Final traffic is capped to match airport capacities. The short-term forecast focuses on time-series modeling of traffic trends month-by-month. The final result is in terms of numbers of flights per month per pair of zones or regions: within Europe origin-destination zones are used (groups of airports often smaller than States); outside of Europe, large regions are used (groups of States). Four separate forecasts (with differing horizons and time and geographical resolution) contribute to the forecast as a whole (see Figure 11): 1. The State-flow forecast method is the previous method. It has been used for several years for published short-term forecasts. It forecasts each State separately, and within the State, separate forecasts for a few main flows : internals, overflights etc. 2. The zone or region-pair forecast is largely based on time-series methods for some 8000 series. 3. The schedule method uses data from published schedules for future months, and comparisons of previous schedules with actual flights. 4. The first years of the medium-term forecast also contribute a view of future traffic. The combined forecast is then capped by airport capacities, using the same method as used in the medium- and long-term forecasts. Overflights are calculated using both the trends identified in the shortterm forecast, and the base-year flight patterns used previously in the medium-term forecast. The result is a single forecast from which short- and medium-term views can be reported. Figure 11. Summary of short-term forecast method. Supporting Data: -Events -Calendars State-Flow Forecast Method istorical Archive: Monthly Airport-Pair Data Zone/Region-Pair Forecast Method Short-term Forecast istorical Archive: Published Schedule Schedule Forecast Method Medium-Term Forecast (Parts of method only) Initial Airport-Pair Forecast Combine Aligned Airport-Pair Forecast Apply annual capacities Final Airport-Pair Forecast Forecast Overflights Final Forecast V1.0 Page: 11

13 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488. FORECAST FOR 2012, 2013 AND 2014 Figure 12. Summary of forecast total IFR flight growth per traffic zone. Albania Armenia Austria Azerbaijan elarus elgium/uxembourg osnia-erzegovina ulgaria Canary Islands Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia AAGR 2014/ % 3.5% 7.2% 3.3% 4.5% 8.9% 12.0% 8.7% -0.9% 1.8% 6.3% 2.4% % 0.1% 5.7% 1.6% % 2.0% 9.0% 3.1% 8.0% -6.7% 9.3% 8.1% -1.7% -0.2% 8.0% 1.9% % -2.3% 7.0% 0.9% % 1.7% 3.5% 1.2% 2.0% -7.6% 2.2% 1.5% -1.6% 0.2% 2.7% 0.4% % -1.3% 2.0% -0.4% % 4.5% 6.9% 5.6% 13.0% 0.5% 11.0% 2.8% 5.4% 2.9% 6.1% 4.8% % 1.3% 5.6% 4.0% % 4.9% 5.1% 5.6% 16.0% -8.6% 7.7% 15.0% 6.7% 3.1% 4.0% 4.6% % 1.6% 3.2% 3.8% % 2.8% 2.9% 2.0% 0.7% -7.9% 1.5% 5.4% 0.0% 1.4% 2.3% 1.2% % 0.0% 1.6% 0.5% % 6.4% 5.0% 2.9% 8.5% 3.1% 11.0% 10.0% -2.6% 4.6% 4.0% 2.0% % 2.9% 3.3% 1.2% % 3.8% 4.2% 2.8% 7.7% -0.2% 5.6% 7.1% 0.3% 2.6% 3.3% 2.1% % 1.2% 2.9% 1.4% % -0.5% 2.8% -1.9% -0.2% -13.0% 3.2% 8.2% -7.7% -2.3% 1.6% -2.9% % -3.8% 0.7% -3.7% % 6.1% 5.2% 3.7% 6.0% 0.1% 8.7% 8.4% -0.3% 4.4% 4.2% 2.8% % 2.8% 3.6% 2.0% % 4.1% 2.4% 0.9% 12.0% -1.7% 6.4% -1.2% -3.8% 2.2% 1.6% 0.0% % 0.2% 0.8% -1.0% % 2.3% 4.2% 1.5% 5.6% -5.0% 3.2% 4.0% -2.1% 0.7% 3.4% 0.6% % -0.9% 2.6% -0.2% % 3.5% 3.5% 1.4% -0.3% -8.5% 3.3% 5.1% -2.8% 2.1% 2.9% 0.7% % 0.8% 2.3% 0.0% % 2.2% 4.1% 4.3% 13.0% -12.0% 2.1% 14.0% 6.4% 0.4% 3.1% 3.3% % -1.1% 2.3% 2.5% V1.0 Page: 12

14 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 FYROM Finland France Georgia Germany Greece ungary Iceland Ireland Italy atvia isbon FIR ithuania Malta Moldova AAGR 2014/ % 4.4% 2.8% -0.8% 2.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4% -9.1% 2.4% 1.7% -1.8% % 0.5% 0.8% -2.7% % 2.0% 3.3% -0.1% 6.3% -7.7% 0.6% 11.0% -5.4% 0.6% 2.6% -0.8% % -0.7% 2.0% -1.4% % 0.8% 2.5% 0.7% -0.2% -7.3% -0.2% 6.2% -1.3% -0.6% 1.8% -0.1% % -2.0% 1.1% -0.8% % 8.8% 8.2% 5.1% 0.0% -3.6% 22.0% 16.0% -1.4% 7.1% 7.2% 4.2% % 5.4% 6.7% 3.5% % 2.0% 3.0% 1.1% 1.4% -7.0% 1.7% 3.2% -1.6% 0.5% 2.3% 0.4% % -0.9% 1.7% -0.3% % 1.5% 3.2% 0.6% 3.4% -0.8% 2.6% 0.2% -3.1% 0.1% 2.5% -0.2% % -1.4% 1.9% -0.9% % 2.4% 2.9% 0.4% 1.1% -2.3% 2.4% -0.8% -4.1% 0.9% 2.0% -0.4% % -0.7% 1.4% -1.2% % 6.9% 5.7% 7.9% 4.8% -7.8% 0.6% 9.0% 11.0% 5.4% 5.1% 7.2% % 4.0% 4.6% 6.5% % 2.7% 3.6% 2.0% 0.6% -12.0% -3.1% 1.9% -0.3% 1.0% 2.7% 1.1% % -0.3% 2.1% 0.5% % 0.4% 2.4% 0.2% -2.4% -5.1% 3.9% 0.8% -2.3% -0.9% 1.7% -0.5% % -2.3% 0.9% -1.3% % 4.1% 5.3% 2.9% 11.0% -8.4% 4.0% 9.8% -0.8% 2.1% 4.1% 1.8% % 0.4% 3.3% 0.9% % -0.3% 2.6% -0.1% 2.7% -7.2% 5.6% 4.8% -2.7% -2.1% 1.1% -1.2% % -3.7% 0.3% -2.0% % 3.1% 5.4% 3.0% 12.0% -12.0% 7.3% 13.0% 0.4% 1.1% 4.2% 1.9% % -0.6% 3.4% 1.1% % 12.0% 6.2% 12.5% 3.5% 0.7% 12.0% -15.0% 20.0% 9.6% 5.4% 11.5% % 7.8% 4.8% 10.7% % 13.0% 8.1% 8.9% 18.0% 6.7% 24.0% 11.0% 5.9% 11.0% 7.1% 7.8% % 8.8% 6.5% 7.0% V1.0 Page: 13

15 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 Morocco 4 Netherlands Norway Poland Romania Santa Maria FIR Serbia&Montenegro Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine AAGR 2014/ % 5.3% 4.7% 0.6% 2.5% -5.8% 8.6% 3.9% -7.7% 3.7% 3.8% -0.2% % 2.0% 3.1% -1.0% % 2.7% 2.8% 1.8% -1.6% -8.6% 1.7% 7.2% 0.0% 1.4% 2.1% 1.1% % 0.0% 1.6% 0.5% % 3.3% 3.2% 3.7% 2.6% -4.4% 2.2% 4.9% 4.6% 2.2% 2.6% 3.1% % 1.1% 2.0% 2.5% % 4.2% 5.2% 4.7% 10.0% -7.6% 5.8% 9.4% 4.8% 2.3% 4.0% 3.7% % 0.8% 3.3% 2.9% % 1.9% 4.8% 2.4% 2.8% -2.3% 8.2% 3.8% 0.3% 0.4% 3.9% 1.5% % -1.1% 3.3% 0.8% % 5.5% 3.8% 2.0% 6.5% -2.6% 4.5% 4.3% -3.3% 3.7% 2.9% 1.1% % 2.1% 2.1% 0.3% % 3.4% 5.2% 1.5% 8.6% 3.3% 5.9% 2.7% -4.0% 1.8% 4.2% 0.6% % 0.3% 3.6% -0.1% % 3.6% 3.9% 2.5% 6.4% -2.4% 9.9% 3.1% 0.0% 2.0% 3.1% 1.7% % 0.4% 2.4% 0.9% % 5.8% 4.3% 2.7% 6.8% -4.2% 4.8% 7.5% -1.9% 4.0% 3.3% 1.8% % 2.4% 2.7% 1.0% % -0.4% 2.0% -1.6% -1.8% -9.5% 1.8% 3.6% -6.3% -2.3% 1.0% -2.6% % -3.9% 0.1% -3.4% % 3.0% 3.9% 2.5% 3.9% -11.0% 1.5% 9.1% 0.5% 1.6% 3.2% 1.8% % 0.3% 2.6% 1.1% % 1.6% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% -7.1% 0.7% 3.6% -1.4% 0.1% 2.4% 0.4% % -1.4% 1.8% -0.4% % 4.1% 4.4% 3.8% 8.6% 4.2% 13.0% 7.6% 2.7% 3.2% 4.0% 3.3% % 1.9% 3.8% 2.8% % 5.4% 5.8% 4.8% 8.7% -6.9% 14.0% 5.5% 3.1% 4.0% 4.9% 4.0% % 2.6% 4.3% 3.3% 4 The forecast for Morocco should be treated with more caution than those for countries for which we have longer experience in forecasting. Traffic counts used here are also those recorded in the CFMU system of Eurocontrol some internal flights may be missing, flights departing from Ceuta-Melilla are considered as Moroccan overflights. V1.0 Page: 14

16 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 UK ESRA02 EU27 ESRA08 SES altic lue Med Danube FA CE FA EC NEFA SW Portugal - Spain UK-Ireland DK-SE AAGR 2014/ % 1.8% 2.7% 1.1% -1.4% -9.4% -4.3% 2.8% -1.4% 0.6% 2.1% 0.4% % -0.6% 1.7% -0.1% % 1.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.4% -6.6% 0.7% 2.9% -2.3% 0.1% 2.3% 0.0% % -1.3% 1.7% -0.7% % 1.4% 2.9% 0.5% 0.3% -7.2% 0.2% 2.6% -2.7% -0.1% 2.1% -0.2% % -1.5% 1.5% -0.9% % 1.3% 3.1% 0.7% 0.4% -6.6% 0.8% 3.1% -2.2% -0.1% 2.4% 0.0% % -1.4% 1.8% -0.7% % 1.4% 2.9% 0.7% 0.4% -6.9% 0.2% 2.6% -2.3% 0.0% 2.2% -0.1% % -1.4% 1.5% -0.8% % 3.7% 5.2% 4.8% 11.0% -8.6% 5.5% 9.2% 5.4% 1.9% 4.1% 3.8% % 0.4% 3.4% 3.0% % 1.2% 2.8% 1.1% -0.8% -3.8% 3.6% -0.1% -0.8% -0.2% 2.0% 0.3% % -1.6% 1.3% -0.4% % 3.2% 4.4% 2.8% 6.9% -0.4% 6.7% 3.3% 0.7% 1.8% 3.5% 2.0% % 0.4% 3.0% 1.3% % 2.5% 3.9% 1.7% 3.1% -5.2% 3.2% 2.7% -1.3% 0.9% 3.0% 0.9% % -0.6% 2.4% 0.1% % 1.4% 2.7% 0.9% 0.5% -7.1% 0.5% 4.4% -1.4% 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% % -1.4% 1.4% -0.5% % 3.0% 3.7% 2.9% 4.5% -6.6% 2.1% 7.0% 2.0% 1.6% 3.0% 2.2% % 0.4% 2.4% 1.6% % 0.1% 2.3% -1.5% -1.8% -9.4% 1.8% 3.3% -6.8% -1.8% 1.3% -2.5% % -3.3% 0.5% -3.3% % 1.6% 2.7% 1.0% -1.5% -9.5% -4.3% 2.5% -1.3% 0.4% 2.1% 0.4% % -0.8% 1.7% -0.2% % 3.6% 3.7% 1.8% 2.2% -9.7% 2.4% 5.7% -1.8% 2.3% 3.1% 1.2% % 1.0% 2.5% 0.5% V1.0 Page: 15

17 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 Figure 13. Summary of Forecast IFR Movements Per Traffic Zone (thousands). Albania Armenia Austria Azerbaijan elarus elgium/uxembourg osnia-erzegovina ulgaria Canary Islands Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia AAGR 2014/ % % % % % %.... 1,137 1,157 1, % 1,204 1,113 1,137 1,154 1,136 1,138 1, %.... 1,135 1,119 1, % % % % % % %.... 1,093 1,124 1, % 1,108 1,020 1,035 1,091 1,092 1,108 1, %.... 1,091 1,090 1, % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % V1.0 Page: 16

18 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 FYROM Finland France Georgia Germany Greece ungary Iceland Ireland Italy atvia isbon FIR ithuania Malta Moldova AAGR 2014/ % % % % % %.... 2,931 2,954 3, % 3,020 2,801 2,794 2,968 2,928 2,910 2, %.... 2,926 2,866 2, % % % %.... 3,031 3,091 3, % 3,151 2,930 2,981 3,078 3,029 3,044 3, %.... 3,026 2,997 3, % % % % % % % % % % % % %.... 1,688 1,695 1, % 1,736 1,647 1,712 1,726 1,687 1,672 1, %.... 1,685 1,647 1, % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % V1.0 Page: 17

19 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 Morocco 5 Netherlands Norway Poland Romania Santa Maria FIR Serbia& Montenegro Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine AAGR 2014/ % % %.... 1,086 1,115 1, % 1, ,013 1,085 1,085 1,099 1, %.... 1,084 1,084 1, % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %.... 1,562 1,556 1, % 1,747 1,581 1,608 1,665 1,560 1,525 1, %.... 1,559 1,498 1, % % % %.... 1,049 1,065 1, % 1,096 1,018 1,025 1,063 1,048 1,049 1, %.... 1,047 1,032 1, %.... 1,068 1,112 1, % ,039 1,067 1,101 1, %.... 1,066 1,086 1, % % % % 5 The forecast for Morocco should be treated with more caution than those for countries for which we have longer experience in forecasting. Traffic counts used here are also those recorded in the CFMU system of Eurocontrol some internal flights may be missing, flights departing from Ceuta-Melilla are considered as Moroccan overflights. V1.0 Page: 18

20 EUROCONTRO two-year flight forecast, December EUROCONTRO/STATFOR/Doc488 UK ESRA02 EU27 ESRA08 SES altic lue Med Danube FA CE FA EC NEFA SW Portugal Spain UK-Ireland DK-SE AAGR 2014/ ,212 2,252 2, % 2,514 2,278 2,181 2,241 2,210 2,223 2, %.... 2,208 2,195 2, %.... 9,422 9,562 9, % 9,954 9,301 9,367 9,641 9,415 9,422 9, %.... 9,407 9,288 9, %.... 8,803 8,926 9, % 9,470 8,787 8,805 9,036 8,796 8,789 8, %.... 8,788 8,661 8, %.... 9,578 9,702 10,00 0.7% 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,570 9, , %.... 9,562 9,424 9, %.... 9,198 9,329 9, % 9,833 9,152 9,171 9,407 9,190 9,189 9, %.... 9,182 9,057 9, % % % %.... 2,267 2,295 2, % 2,294 2,207 2,286 2,283 2,265 2,261 2, %.... 2,263 2,226 2, % % % %.... 1,892 1,939 2, % 1,904 1,806 1,864 1,914 1,890 1,907 1, %.... 1,888 1,877 1, %.... 5,594 5,672 5, % 5,817 5,406 5,431 5,671 5,589 5,589 5, %.... 5,585 5,507 5, %.... 1,009 1,039 1, % ,008 1,025 1, %.... 1,008 1,012 1, %.... 1,701 1,702 1, % 1,912 1,733 1,765 1,823 1,699 1,669 1, %.... 1,697 1,641 1, %.... 2,244 2,280 2, % 2,559 2,316 2,216 2,272 2,242 2,250 2, %.... 2,241 2,222 2, % ,026 1, % 1, , ,012 1, % , % V1.0 Page: 19

21 For further information, please contact: STATFOR, the EUROCONTRO Statistics and Forecast Service EUROCONTRO The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTRO) This document is published by EUROCONTRO for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTRO is mentioned as the source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTRO.