Hydrometeorological support of the safety of marine activity in the Arctic

Transcription

1 International Conference "Through the Northern Sea Route to strategic stability in the Arctic" Hydrometeorological support of the safety of marine activity in the Arctic Alexander Frolov Head of Roshydromet 2011

2 The Arctic 2 The Arctic area is about 27 mil. km 2 Arctic Ocean area is 17,75 mil. km 2 Arctic sea ice extent is from 16,0 in winter to 4,5 mil. km 2 in summer (minimum ice extent was in 2007) The total area of Arctic ice caps and glaciers is about 2 mil. km 2

3 Natural hazardous events in the Arctic 3 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL Storms, squalls, fogs, snowfalls, surges, strong tidal changes of sea level and currents, floods, and shallowing of the rivers CLIMATIC Seasonal thawing of the permafrost, coastal erosion ICE Ice accretion on ships, early appearance of ice, strong ice drift, ice ridging, ice gouging and ice interaction with marine engineering structures SOLAR WIND Geomagnetic perturbations in the ionosphere and magnetosphere Growth of the number of natural hazards in the Arctic

4 Marine activities in the Arctic 4 Navigation, marine and river transportation Exploration of marine mineral and energy resources Transportation at the NSR: ,6 mil. ton, ,5 mil. ton, ,1 mil. ton. Expected in mil. ton. Production of natural gas, apatite concentrate, nonferrous and precious metals. The Arctic holds 90% of the recoverable hydrocarbon resources of the continental shelf of the Russian Federation, including 70% of them in the Barents and Kara Seas. Exploration and protection of marine bioresources Bioresources of the Russian Arctic contain 6.5% of the total resources of the Russian fishery or thousand tons Strengthen of defensive capacity Defense and promotion of the interests of the Russian Federation in the World Ocean. Support of the status of sea power and the development and effective use of navy potential of the Russian Federation Marine scientific studies Studies of climate, sea ice, ecosystems and contaminants in the marine environment

5 Development of the forecasts of natural hazardous events 5 5 Timely providing with actual and prognostic information Timely adoption of administrative decisions Effective forecasting Minimizing damage Observations (of sufficient quantity and quality) Data collecting and transferring to the data acquisition centers Synthesis and analysis of data production of forecasts Delivery of forecats and information to consumers Tools to improve forecasting Modernization and development of the monitoring network Recovering of space based observing system Development of modern technologies for data collection and processing The implementation of new technologies for information users

6 The Polar Earth observing network 6 Roshydromet observing network Foring observing network

7 Development Russian observing network 7 Development observing network Present observing network

8 Arctic atmosphere observatories international network 8 8

9 Projects, executed in Hydrometeorological Observatory Tiksi 9 Unification the data standard meteorological observations Creation of homogeneous climatic datasets of meteorological data. Participation in CRN program. Transmission of data to GTS WMO Study of surface radiation balance Monitoring of UV radiation and total ozone content Surface heat balance, turbulent heat and energy, and CO2 /Methane fluxes. Creation of homogeneous climatic datasets of radiation data. Participation in BSRN program Study of UV radiation intensity in dependence of total ozone content and aerosol optical thickness. Transmission of data to WMO Study of air surface interaction Monitoring of atmospheric pollutions Programs AMAP and Global Monitoring POPs (UNEP) Study of atmospheric pollution in the Arctic.

10 Development of Russian Doppler weather radar 10 Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar OJSC "Concern PVO "Almaz Antey" RESEARCH AND PRODUCTION CORPORATION LIANOZOVO ELECTROMECHANICAL PLANT 1. Obtaining the normal radar meteorological information: cloudiness, precipitation, thunderstorms 2. Getting a fundamentally new weather information: squalls, tornadoes Improving the accuracy and timeliness of forecasts and warnings of severe weather events

11 Cloudiness and hazardous events 11 Weather phenomena, including shower, rain, thunderstorm, hail, squall Visibility at precipitation Upper and lower limits of cloudiness

12 «North Pole» ice drifting stations 12 Atmospheric studies Oceanographic studies

13 International Arctic Observation Satellite System METEOR-3М 1 (Russia) Instrument MSU-MR: 6 channels Resolution 1 km Swath 2800 km 2. NOAA Mission (USA) 4 satellites ( 15,17,18,19) Instrument AVHRR: 5 channels Resolution 1,1 km Swath 3000 km 3. Radarsat Mission (Canada) 2 satellites ( 1,2) Instrument SAR: Microwave: C-band (5,6 sm) Resolution 7,5-100 m Swath (resolution 25 m) 100 km 4. ENVISAT (EU) Instrument АSAR: Microwave: C band (5,6 sm) Resolution m Swath (resolution 30 m) 100 km 5. EOS Mission (USA) 2 satellites (TERRA & AQUA) Instrument MODIS: 36 channels Resolution m Swath 2330 km 6. MetOp (EU) Instrument ASCAT: Microwave: C-band (5,6 sm) Resolution 25 km Swath 2х550 km 7. FY-1 (China) Instrument MVISR: 10 channels Resolution 1,1km Swath 3200 km 8. DMSP Mission (USA) 5 satellites (F14,15,16,17,18) Instrument SSM/IS: 24 channels Resolution: 25х17 km - 70х42 km Swath 1700 km

14 Future Russian Observation Satellite System 14 (запущен г.) (запущен г.)

15 Satellite System ARKTIKA 15

16 Automated ice informational system for the Arctic (ALISA) 16 Goals: year round monitoring of sea ice and hydrometeorological conditions; hydrometeorological operational support of maritime activities Purposes: diagnosis and forecast of sea ice and hydrometeorological conditions; development of recommendations on the choice of route options for navigation; informational hydrometeorological support for maritime operations Consumers: Federal and state agencies Navy Shipping companies

17 Sea ice forecast 17 Forecast of ice distribution Forecast of hummocks concentration Forecast of compression Recommended routes

18 Global Maritime Distress Safety System (GMDSS) in the Arctic 18 Zones for preparation of meteorological and ice SafetyNET and NAVTEX bulletins (Canada, METAREA XVII XVIII, Norway, METAREA XIX, Russia, METAREA XX XXI). Average accuracy of forecasts (%)

19 Unified State System of Information on World Ocean Decision of the Government of the Russian Federation of No 836, add. 2007) 19 Main tasks to ensure interaction between marine information systems of Russia to form the unified information space on oceans and coastal zones to support the maritime activity via access to integrated data and product to enable system to system data exchange with foreign/international information systems ESIMO (version 1/2008, current status) 19 data centers from 12 Ministries/Agencies and RAS information on 286 marine parameters of 16 disciplines 1450 on line resources (183 data bases, more 40 % realtime) 1500 user requests daily and data down loading 70 Gb monthly

20 Unified State System of Information on World Ocean Decision of the Government of the Russian Federation of No 836, add. 2007) ESIMO (version 1/2008, current status) 19 data centers from 12 Ministries/Agencies and RAS information on 286 marine parameters of 16 disciplines 1450 on-line resources (183 data bases, more 40 % real-time) 1500 user requests daily and data down-loading 70 Gb monthly Main tasks to ensure interaction between marine information systems of Russia to form the unified information space on oceans and coastal zones to support the maritime activity via access to integrated data and product to enable system to system data exchange with foreign/international information systems

21 Marine System s Interaction and Integration Service 21 ESIMO resource registration Monitoring of system operation Data and product management

22 Search and Access Service 22 Data search criteria's On line access and delivering data Data viewing and down loading

23 GIS Analysis Service/1 23 Joint analysis of maritime ship trafic and hydrometeo conditions

24 GIS Analysis Service/2 24 Joint analysis of maritime ship positions and clouds (MODIS),

25 Applied Tasks Service Interactive assessment and forecast of oil pollution for Arctic region Storm indicators on Barents sea 25 Storm frequency ( ) Storm frequency (June, User interface for service OilMARS Example of AT Oil Pollution realoization Maritime transportation operations and weather phenomena Storm intensity (pressure anomalies, ) Transhipment cargoes in the ports of Russian Arctic Winter Storm intensity (June, Summer 2011) Frequency of cyclones for (Barents Sea)

26 Technology of modeling and forecast of oil pollutions 26 View of interface OilMARS Oil tanker «Prestige». The results of calculation pollution redistribution during November 17, 2002 and image from ASAR/ENVISAT. Distribution of oil concentration (mg/м 3 )in the Kara (a, c) and Laptev Seas (b, d) Example of operative prognostic calculation

27 New innovative technology of hydrometeorological support of ice navigation (AKMON) 27 AKMON is replicated hardware and software complex developed in Roshydromet to create information systems for monitoring and forecasting of atmospheric and hydrospheric conditions using a network of workstations for preparation of information and redistribution of information products to customers Tasks: Support for ice conditions management; Sea ice cover monitoring; Planning of operations possibility, duration, costs etc; Operative planning and control; Relay of information to the end user terminal using navigational compatible formats (on the bridge of icebreaker, cargo vessel); Choice of variant and navigation route. End user terminal allows to overlay following information in ENC system: Satellite imagery; Ice analysis charts; Ice forecast charts; Navigational recommendations; Synoptic charts and weather forecasts

28 New systems of sea ice mapping in Electronic Navigational Charts (ENC) Navy Sailor 4000 Ice Option 28 Regional ice chart Review ice chart Ice layer (detailed ice chart) in ENC

29 The IPY Chart 29

30 IPY 2007/08: marine expeditions Expeditions in 2007 Expeditions in 2008 Russian marine research 30 Non Russian marine research

31 Thank you for attention!