ILWS: History. Heliophysics Research within LWS/ILWS. Madhulika Guhathakurta Lead Program Scientist, Living with a Star

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1 Heliophysics Research within LWS/ILWS ILWS: History Madhulika Guhathakurta Lead Program Scientist, Living with a Star NASAHeadquarters Science Mission Directorate Heliophysics Division 2011 SORCE Science Meeting Sedona, AZ Sept , 2011

2 Overarching Principles NASA Living with a Star Program Targeted Research & Technology Steering Committee At the center of the solar system there is a magnetic variable star, the Sun, that drives the Earth and other Planets, and structures the interplanetary space itself. All of NASA s activities, all human endeavor, are subjected to forces in this neighborhood.

3 Heliophysics: (aka Science of Space Weather & Climate) NASA Living with a Star Program Targeted Research & Technology Steering Committee Understanding the Sun and its effects on the Earth and the solar system. 1. This is a complex system with many different temporal and spatial scales 2. The study of heliophysics involves three forces, and their interactions: pressure, gravity, and magnetic fields. 3. The Sun is coupled to the planetary system and space by radiation, charged particles, and magnetic fields.

4 Heliophysics Future? Interplanetary Space Weather & Climate Program Until recently, forecasters could barely predict space weather in the limited vicinity of Earth. Interplanetary forecasting was out of the question. This began to change in 2006 with the launch of the twin STEREO probes followed almost four years later by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. These three spacecraft now surround the sun, monitoring active regions, flares, and coronal mass ejections around the full circumference of the star. No matter which way a solar storm travels, the STEREO-SDO fleet can track it. Missions like SDO and Kepler are giving us a better view of sun-like stars and their inner workings to understand their cyclic behavior. As human activity expands into the solar system, the need for accurate space weather and climate forecasting is expanding, too. Space probes are now orbiting or en route to flybys of Mercury, Venus, Earth and the Moon, Mars, Vesta, Ceres, Saturn, and Pluto. As agencies around the world prepare for these missions to send robotic space craft, each of these missions (plus others on the drawing board) has a unique need to know when a solar storm will pass through its corner of space or how the subsequent solar cycles will behave. Ultimately, astronauts will follow beyond Earth orbit, and their need for interplanetary space weather and climate forecasting will be even more compelling.

5 SUN galactic cosmic rays EARTH convection zone radiative zone core particles and magnetic fields photons bow shock surface atmosphere sunspot plage coronal mass ejection solar wind heliosphere surface atmosphere plasmasphere magnetosphere not to scale

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8 NASA Living with a Star Program Targeted Research & Technology Steering Committee

9 System of Systems Surveillance 9

10 LWS Mantra Develop the scientific understanding necessary to effectively address those aspects of the connected Sun-Earth system that directly affect life and society. Human Radiation Exposure - Space Station - Space Exploration and Utilization - High Altitude Flight Impacts on Technology - Space Systems - Communications, Navigation - Terrestrial Systems Terrestrial climate - short term - long term M.

11 Science Application as the Focus The primary goal of the LWS Program is to develop the understanding necessary to enable the U.S. to effectively address those aspects of the Connected Sun-Solar system that directly affect life and society. Space Weather Space Climate Sun-Climate Connection

12 Four Strategic GOALS for LWS..deliver the understanding and modeling required for useful prediction of the variable solar particulate and radiative environment at the Earth, Moon, Mars, and throughout the solar system..deliver the understanding of how and to what degree variations in the solar radiative and particulate output contribute to changes in global and regional climate over a wide range of time scales..deliver the understanding and modeling required for effective forecasting/specification of magnetospheric radiation and plasma environments..deliver understanding and predictive models of upper atmospheric and ionospheric responses to changes in solar electromagnetic radiation, and to coupling above and below

13 LWS Targeted Research & Technology (TR&T) Strategic Plan Based on the LWS TR&T Science Definition Team report of November 2003 LWS is a systematic, goal-oriented research program targeting those aspects of the Sun-Earth system that affect life and society. The TR&T component of LWS is to provide the theory, modeling, and data analysis necessary to enable an integrated, system-wide approach to LWS science. TR&T Supports: Focused Science Teams Strategic Capabilities Cross-cutting Workshops Summer Schools/text books Heliophysics Postdoctoral Fellows (Eddy Fellows)

14 TBD Solar origins of the plasma and magnetic flux of observed ICMEs Topology and impact of the magnetic field through the photosphere, corona and heliosp. Origin of solarenergetic particles at the sun and inner heliosphere Formation and loss of new radiation belts in the slot region.. Shock acceleration of SEPs by interplanetary CMEs Mechanism for solar wind heating and acceleration Solar wind plasma entry and transport in the magnetosphere Storm effects on globlal electrodynamics of the middle and low latitude ionosphere LWS TR&T Focus Topics Predict emergence of solar active regions before visible Understand how flares accelerate particles near the Sun and contribution to large SEP events Plasma redistribution during storms in the ITM system Middle and low latitude sources, effects, and distribution of large electron density gradients Magnetic Connection of Photosphere and Low Corona Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays, due to Longterm Solar Activity Daily Variability in the Thermosphere and Ionosphere Combined Modelling of Loss, Acceleration, and Transport of Magnetospheric Electrons, Protons Properties of the Solar Dynamo that affect Irradiance and Active Regions Use Inner Heliosphere Obs. to Better Constrain CME and SEP Models Integrate Non- MHD/Kinetic Effects into Global Models Response of ITM Composition and Temperature due to Solar XUV and Energetic Particle Variation Behavior of the Plasmasphere and its Influence on the Iono- /Magnetosphere Origin and Nature of the Slow Solar Wind, and its effect on Helio Structures, and SEP Transport Predict the Onset and Space Weather Impacts of Fast CMEs/Eruptive Flares Plasma-Neutral Gas Coupling Low to midlatitude ionospheric irregularities & turbulence Factors that control highly variable SEPs Jets in the solar atmosphere and their effects on the heliopsphere Incorporating plasma waves in models of RBs and ring currents Thermospher e composition and due to Solar and high Lat forcing Abundance of greenhouse gases and dynamics of Upper Atmosphere Solar origins of irradiance variations Prediction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Vector Bz at L1 The Sun-Climate Strategic Theme Global, regional climate sensitivity to solar forcing Extreme Space Weather Events in the Solar Sys/

15 Strategic Plan for Climate Change Goal Physical Phenomena (actual processes): Mesosphere Dynamo Deep Solar Interior Quiet Sun Active Regions Irradiance Particles Stratosphere Troposphere Climate Change (e.g. temperature, chemistry, dynamics, precipitation) GCR Earth Surface Strategic Capabilities (required models): Solar Models Total & Spectral Irradiance Observations & Models Whole Atmosphere Models FST (required science): Solar Processes First Principles Irradiance Model Utility of Proxy Records Greenhouse Gas Effects on Upper Atm. Atmospheric Coupling Forcing Mechanisms Climate Sensitivity to Solar Forcing

16 Proposals and Awards ~150 current awards with average funding level of ~$120,000 26% of these have separately funded co- Investigators Most have 3-4 year duration (SC - 5 year duration) ROSES proposals reviewed for 4 FT, Sun-Climate Theme & Cross-Discipline Infrastructure. 44 proposals selected in spring/summer 2011 of which 7 (out of 18) were for sun-climate theme. ROSES 2011 NRA update will be made in mid October, 2011 Goal is to look for partnership opportunity with Earth Science Division on Sun-Climate theme Partnership established with NSF on Strategic Capabilities

17 TR&T website:

18 LWS Sun-Climate Report State of Knowledge of the Sun-Climate Links Immediate Goals: Identify mechanistic pathways Quantify processes involved Determine their contribution to climate change Eddy et al. 2003

19 LWS: Unanswered Questions 1. Paradox of greater-than-expected climate sensitivity 2. Which solar forcing mechanism, radiative or nonradiative, are climatically significant and what are their effects on other factors of variability? 3. Are there longer-term variations in solar irradiance in addition to 0.1% eleven year cycle? What about spectral solar irradiance? 4. What was the contribution of the solar variability to climate during the last 25, 150 and 10,000 years? Other questions: proxies, spectral irradiance, effect on modes of variability, THC, sun-like stars (Kepler and others)

20 Rationale for the NRC Task NASA s Living with a Star (LWS) initiative is a goal-oriented research program targeting those aspects of the Sun-Earth system that have specific societal impacts. First among other stated LWS objectives is to understand the impact of solar variations on global [climatic] change. While new results implying significant links between solar activity and climate have continued to accumulate from individual empirical, climate modeling and attribution studies, there has never been an organized, community effort to address this area of investigation. Nor has Sun-Climate research ever enjoyed the broad endorsement of either the solar or the atmospheric research communities as a priority field of study. More specific goals and definitions and an intellectual foundation that sets Sun- Climate research more clearly in the broad context of modern climate research are obviously needed at this time, given the national policy implications of reliable climate change attribution. To support future planning, NASA & NSF enlisted the NRC s assistance in evaluating existing knowledge and possible avenues for future research in this area. We planned a fact-finding workshop to be conducted by a study group of the NRC; depending on information developed by this workshop, a future task might request formal recommendations for follow-up research in this area.

21 Emphasis on Sun Climate Connection NASA & NSF tasked NRC to conduct a study/workshop on Beyond Radiative Forcing and Response: Reconciling Observations and Understanding of Climate Response to Solar Variability What part of observed atmospheric variability is in response to solar forcing, particularly in the lower atmosphere? Are attributed signals consistent over different time scales? What are associations between sunspots or cosmogenic isotopes and the magnitude of solar irradiance changes in the past? If long-term irradiance variations are insufficient to impact climate, were other solarmodulated parameters, such as galactic cosmic rays, responsible for the reported paleo sunclimate connections? Is empirical evidence sufficiently robust to conclude that the spatial response in climate models is consistent, or not? What does the evidence imply about the relative roles of the Sun and GHGs for past, present and future climate change and what does this mean for their projections of regional climate response to other radiative forcings, such as GHGs? What are the research directions and model extensions necessary to improve the models, using solar forcings and observed climate responses to test their fidelity? Are the long-standing concepts of radiative forcings and responses that are the basis for the models inadequate to accommodate the actual mechanisms?

22 Heliophysics Text Books The sub-disciplines within Heliophysics have a rich variety of available textbooks, but no textbooks currently exist that present the diverse materials from their common physical principles, and help teachers well-versed in one discipline to teach the directly related areas within other disciplines. Three affordable textbooks have been produced for each year of the Summer School ( ). The books are aimed for senior level undergraduates, graduate students and beginning postdoctoral students in all of the sciences related to climate physics, space physics, and heliospheric and solar physics, plus relevant branches of astrophysics and plasma physics. The three textbooks cover the basic topics in heliophysics. NOTE: The Heliophysics textbooks have been published by Cambridge University Press. All appendices are online. The textbooks do not have 'numerical modeling descriptions' nor 'problem sets'. A new set of Heliophysics summer schools are developing 'numerical modeling descriptions and 'problem sets to aid in teaching.

23 LWS Graduate Level Education A three volume Series, an outgrowth of the LWS summer school series. Vol 1 Plasma Physics of the Local Cosmos Vol 2 Space Storms and Radiation Vol 3 Evolving Solar Activity and the Climates of Earth and Space Summer School Resources: http/ ummer School

24 Heliophysics III: Evolving solar activity and climate of space and earth Cambridge Press: Hardback ) Expected- Summer ) Formation, evolution, and demise of stars and their planets 2) Planetary habitability on astronomical time scales 3) Long-term evolution of magnetic activity of Sun-like stars 4) Astrophysical dynamo actions and stellar dynamo models 5) Solar internal flows and dynamo action 6) Planetary fields and dynamos 7) The evolving heliosphere and its particle environment 8) Solar spectral irradiance: measurements and models 9) Long-term evolution of the geospace climate 10) Planetary ITM-magnetosphere processes and the solar cycle 11) Waves and transport processes in planetary atmosheres 12) Climate couplings via (photo-)chemistry 13) Records of climate and climate drivers 14) External influences on planetary climates 15) Climate models of Earth and planets 16) Heliophysics - epilogue On-Line Appendices: 1) Data archives, modeling sites, space weather forecasts 2) Descriptions on packages for numerical modeling 3) Problem sets

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26 The Heliophysics Postdoctoral Fellowship Program has been renamed to Eddy Fellowship Program Eddy Cross-Disciplinary Symposium was held in Sun-Climate research was held in October, 2010 with a major goal to introduce the excitement and challenges of a challenging crossdisciplinary area of research to at least 20 undergraduate and graduate students. A Japanese translation of this book will soon be available ( corp/en/) A Primer for Heliophyscs

27 International Living With a Star NASA Living with a Star Program Targeted Research & Technology Steering Committee

28 Toward the ILWS Future We are on the verge of an exciting decade of discovery and international cooperation. However, much remains to be done. - Articulate a powerful and sustainable vision for our science - Strengthen the international framework of cooperation - Establish a data and modeling infrastructure - Work with other international organizations - A well-organized ILWS will help address all of these needs. Additional note: The upcoming solar maximum may turn out to be a small one. Although past efforts have prioritized big storms and their effects, this will be an opportunity for the heliophysics community to place an emphasis on solar minimum effects (such as cosmic rays) and long-term effects and sun-climate relationship.

29 Heliophysics Future? Interplanetary Space Weather & Climate Program NASA Living with a Star Program Targeted Research & Technology Steering Committee Interplanetary forecasting (1) Human Safety (2) Spacecraft operations (3) Science Opportunities Mission Line: Application with Science Relevance and Monitoring with Science Utility e.g., L1, L4/L5, SESS from NPOESS, COSMIC Interplanetary SWx Institute Virtual R2O interdisciplinary, e.g. Astrobiology Institute (an interdisciplinary consortium of experts scattered across many universities and agencies under a virtual NASA umbrella) e.g. If NASA sends a probe to Titan, say, other experts would come to the fore---e.g., a planetary scientist at Brown University who predicts tropospheric weather on Titan; a CME modeler at Goddard/CCMC who predicts the onset of geomagnetic storms at Saturn; an EUV expert at the University of Colorado who estimates the solar ultraviolet flux impinging on the giant satellite. An approaching Titan probe could get a genuine weather forecast for its target body. Whether the forecast is for Earth or Titan or some other body, the effort would take place under the overarching supervision and management of NASA. Moreover, NASA spacecraft would provide almost all key data underlying the forecasts, a situation which is already a reality even without this initiative.