Committee on Strategic NASA Science Missions 5 October 2016 Peg Luce, Deputy Division Director

Transcription

1 Committee on Strategic NASA Science Missions 5 October 2016 Peg Luce, Deputy Division Director 1

2 Why Heliophysics? Heliophysics is humankind s scientific endeavor to understand the sun and its interactions with Earth and the solar system, including space weather. 1. What causes the Sun to vary? 2. How do the geospace, planetary space environments and the heliosphere respond? 3. What are the impacts on humanity? The sun, Earth, and heliosphere must be studied as a coupled system. This calls for a balanced program comprising theory, modeling, data analysis, innovation, education, as well as ground-based facilities and small-, medium-, and large-class space missions. 2

3 Heliophysics System Observatory A coordinated and complementary fleet of spacecraft to understand the Sun and its interactions with Earth and the solar system, including space weather 3

4 Heliophysics System Observatory A coordinated and complementary fleet of spacecraft to understand the Sun and its interactions with Earth and the solar system, including space weather Heliophysics has 18 operating missions with 28 spacecraft: Voyager, Geotail, Wind, SOHO, ACE, TIMED, RHESSI, Hinode, STEREO, THEMIS, ARTEMIS, AIM, TWINS, IBEX, SDO, Van Allen Probes, IRIS, MMS MMS 5 missions are in development: SET, ICON, GOLD, SPP, and SOC Missions in blue are strategic (were directed). 4

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6 Research Program Explorers Living With a Star Solar Terrestrial Probes Heliophysics Program = Large Strategic Mission = Medium Strategic Mission Interstellar Mapping Probe (IMAP) (STP #5) 2023* Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) March 2015 Heliophysics MO 2023* Space Environment Testbeds (SET) Solar Probe Plus NET September 2017 July 2018 Solar Orbiter Collaboration (with ESA) October 2018 Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC)(LWS #4) 2024* Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) October 2017 Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) April 2018 Heliophysics MO 2020* Heliophysics SMEX 2022* Heliophysics MO 2022* Heliophysics MIDEX 2024* Heliophysics MO 2024* Solar/Heliospheric: November 2016 Solar/Heliospheric December 2016 Solar/Heliospheric December (tbd) 2016 Ongoing Heliophysics Missions Astrophysics Missions Planetary Missions *Notional

7 Millions Heliophysics Budget by Program $800 $700 $600 $500 Heliophysics Research $400 $300 $200 Solar Terrestrial Probes Living With a Star $100 $ Heliophysics Explorers

8 FY 2016 Heliophysics Budget Fractions

9 Heliophysics Missions in Development ICON NASA Mission GOLD 6/ / 2017 NASA Mission of Opportunity On Commercial Commsat Ionospheric Connection Explorer SPP NASA Mission 10/2018 Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk SOC ESA-led Mission 10/2018 Solar Probe Plus Solar Orbiter Collaboration 9

10 Solar Probe Plus: First Voyage to a Star Purpose: Solar Probe Plus will employ a combination of in-situ measurements and imaging to achieve the mission s primary scientific goal: to understand how the Sun s corona is heated and how the solar wind is accelerated. Project Scientist: Nicky Fox, JHU/APL The payload consists of four instruments: FIELDS (UCB) field measurements ISIS (SwRI) mass spectrometer SWEAP (SAO) solar wind particle counter WISPR (NRL) coronal imager Launching on a United Launch Alliance Delta IV-H from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in July 2018 Utilizing 7 Venus flybys, SPP will reach its first close approach to the Sun in Dec. 2024, eventually flying at less than 10 Sun radii (~0.046 AU)

11 Solar Orbiter Collaboration (SOC) Purpose: SOC will use a unique combination of measurements: In situ measurements will be used alongside remote sensing, approximately 64 Sun radii (~0.3 AU), to relate these measurements back to their source regions and structures on the sun's surface; measures solar wind plasma, fields, waves and energetic particles close enough to the Sun to ensure that they are still relatively pristine. NASA-ESA partnership Project Scientist: Chris St. Cyr, NASA/GSFC The payload consists of four instruments: HIS (SwRI) heavy ion sensor SoloHI (NRL) solar imager SIS (ESA) suite of in-situ instruments SPICE (ESA) EUV imaging spectroscope Launching on a United Launch Alliance Atlas V from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in October 2018

12 Current Mission Sizes Small missions are PI-led, AO selected through the Heliophysics Explorers Program Small Complete Missions of Opportunity Small Explorers (SMEX) Medium Explorers (MIDEX) Medium-class strategic missions are recommended by the Decadal Survey Total LCC between $400M and $1B Large-scale strategic missions are recommended by the Decadal Survey Total LCC in excess of $1B Contributions to non-nasa missions may either be PI-led, AO selected (Partner Missions of Opportunity) or may be strategic in origin. 12

13 Committee Questions: Strategic Science Some decadal survey science priorities require large missions. Solar Probe Plus needs to travel to within 10 sun radii of the surface of the sun, which necessitates a significant investment: Technology development and system engineering required to survive the environment and execute the orbital/propulsion, communications, and thermal requirements for the mission are significant. Magnetospheric Multi-Scale (MMS) required a constellation of 4 spacecraft, each carrying 25 instruments, that could fly with precision spacing as tight as 10 km. Large missions have pros and cons + Large missions accomplish science that cannot be accomplished with smaller, less capable missions. + Large observatories/spacecraft can be used by the general observer community in ways that were not envisioned by the designers nor captured in the science requirements. Large mission costs must be carefully managed to preserve programmatic balance. 13

14 Committee Questions: Capability and Leadership What concerns do you have about how long flagship missions take for development and the difficulty for young researchers or even potential future PIs to gain experience? A balanced program provides opportunities for PI development While smaller, PI-led cost capped missions can have shorter life cycles, cost constraints limit the number of people who can support them. Large missions typically include multiple PI-led instruments and can support larger teams of scientists, as well as engineers. They offer opportunities for early career scientists and engineers to develop. What is the value of flagship missions for science base concerns? Talent pools, corporate knowledge, continuity of capabilities etc., and the impact on the future health of this support base? It is conceivable that the science base could be maintained with a large fleet of small observatories, but some key science questions require missions with capabilities that demand significant levels of investment. What is the role of international partnerships in strategic and flagship missions? How is this different for other classes of missions? Partnerships can help to reduce mission costs. Heliophysics anticipates continuing to collaborate with traditional partners, and is developing partnerships with new partners such as South Korea (KASI) and India (ISRO). Small, medium and large partnering opportunities are possible. 14

15 Committee Questions: Technology Development Do you have a separate technology development line? Heliophysics funding for technology development is very limited. The Heliophysics Research and Analysis Program includes a small element that is aimed at technology development on platforms that provide low cost access to space. Heliophysics Technology and Instrument Development for Science (H-TIDeS) funds: science and/or technology investigations that can be carried out with instruments flown on suborbital sounding rockets, stratospheric balloons, CubeSats, or other platforms; state-of-the-art instrument technology development (ITD) for instruments that may be proposed as candidate experiments for future space flight opportunities; laboratory research. Plans are being developed to expand the Heliophysics technology development program. Pre-formulation of large strategic missions includes focused technology development of any outstanding technology needs. For instance, an enabling technology development for SPP was its Thermal Protection System. 15

16 Committee Questions: Technology Development Do you primarily use flagship missions for technology development? Not primarily. However mid-trl technology development is always a part of pre-formulation for large strategic missions. Can you afford the risk of including new technologies on flagship missions? Yes, but it must be appropriately funded, appropriately managed, and begun during pre-formulation. Can you do technology development with smaller size missions? Yes, but Explorers are by definition expected to be lower risk and to apply technology that can demonstrate TRL 6 by KDP-B. Explorers Missions of Opportunity offer an important path for use of even lower TRL technologies. The technology for Explorers, as well as strategic missions, is generally tested on suborbital missions. Do you treat new technology at all differently on flagship missions vs. small missions (by, for example, incentivizing missions to use new technologies)? Heliophysics has not incentivized PI-led Explorers to use new technologies, but continues to actively examine options, such as the possibility of flying accommodations for secondary payloads on future strategic missions. Large missions benefit from the application of new technology. Technology development is a necessary part of pre-formulation and is the objective of the H-TIDeS program. 16

17 Committee Questions: Cost Control for Large Missions How do cost overruns on flagship class missions affect the other mission classes in your portfolio? When a large mission overruns, program balance can only be maintained (no impact to other mission classes) by extending development period without increasing annual budget. Impact is usually delay to next large strategic mission start. Lowest cost impact is to solve overruns when they happen, but this necessarily has a simultaneous impact on other mission classes. The 2013 Heliophysics Decadal Survey emphasized the need to maintain the cadence of opportunities for Explorers missions and Missions of Opportunity. How do you address cost overruns on flagship missions vs. how you address cost overruns on smaller class missions? Planning budgets to have high cost and schedule confidence has resulted in improved cost and schedule performance on NASA missions. Overruns on large strategic missions must be handled through descopes and replanning. PI-led Explorers are cost capped, and they will be terminated if they overrun significantly. The ability to stay within the cost cap is a feature of the mission class and also a factor in the selection. 17

18 Back-Up

19 Heliophysics Mission Timeline

20 Acronym List ABC Agency Baseline Commitment ACE Advanced Composition Explorer AFRL Air Force Research Laboratory AIM Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere AO Announcement of Opportunity BARREL Balloon Array for Radiation Relativistic Electron Losses CINDI Coupled Ion Neutral Dynamic Investigation CDR Critical Design Review EM Engineering Model EUV Extreme Ultraviolet FM Flight Model FUV Far Ultraviolet GOLD Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk GRIPS -- Gamma-Ray Imager/Polarimeter for Solar flares HIS Heavy Ion Sensor HVPS High Voltage Power Supply IBEX Interstellar Boundary Explorer ICON Ionospheric Connection Explorer ICP -- Instrument Control Package IMAU -- ICON Master Avionic Unit IRAP Industrial Research Assistance Program IRIS Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph ISRO Indian Space Research Organisation IVM Ion Velocity Meter KASI Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute KDP Key Decision Point LCC Life Cycle Cost LRD Launch Readiness Date LVPS Low Voltage Power Supply LWS Living With a Star MCP Micro-Channel Plate MEO Medium Earth Orbit MIDEX Medium-Class Explorer MIGHTI -- Michelson Interferometer for Global High resolution Thermospheric Imaging MMS Magnetospheric Multi-Scale MoO Mission of Opportunity MOR Mission Operations Review NRA NASA Research Announcement PER Pre-Environmental Review PDR Preliminary Design Review PI Principal Investigator PIP Payload Interface Plate PSR Pre-Ship Review RHESSI Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager ROSES Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences SDL Space Dynamics Laboratory SDO Solar Dynamics Observatory SET Space Environment Testbed SIR System Integration Review SMEX Small Explorer SOC Solar Orbiter Collaboration SoloHI -- Solar Orbiter Heliospheric Imager SPP Solar Probe Plus STEREO Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory STP Solar Terrestrial Probes THEMIS Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms TIMED Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics TWINS Two Wide-Angle Imaging Neutral-Atom Spectrometers UCB/SSL UC Berkeley/Space Sciences Laboratory 16