Punctuated Equilibrium and Institutional Friction in Comparative Perspective
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1 Punctuated Equilibrium and Institutional Friction in Comparative Perspective Frank R. Baumgartner, Pennsylvania State University Christian Breunig, University of Washington Christoffer Green-Pedersen, Aarhus University Bryan D. Jones, University of Washington Peter B. Mortensen, Aarhus University Michiel Nuytemans, University of Antwerp Stefaan Walgrave, University of Antwerp Web Appendix This appendix reports additional information excluded for reasons of space from the main body of our paper. The appendix is organized as follows*: 1. Data descriptions and variable names. This explains the structure of the related data file. 2. Descriptive statistics for each variable 3. Frequency distributions for each variable 4. Log-log and semi-log plots for each variable Note that sections 3 and 4 consist of a series of graphs, one series per page. Since there are 30 series, these sections are 90 pages long. These graphs are provided for completeness and need not be read in order to understand the paper. * Note that we added the Danish radio news data at the end of the appendix.
2 Comparative Institutional Friction Web Appendix Variable country year Year subcode item topic net R prop dif R dlc Perce dlp Perce Description 1=DK, 2=BEL, and 3=US ID for each country s series see below Categories of the series Label of the category aw value Proportion of annual agenda aw change nt-count change nt-percent change Table 1. Variables and their description ID Description Data Source and Identity 1 El ections Statistic Denmark, Befolkning og valg, Copenhagen, In terpellations Danish Agendas Project, 24 categories, Quest ions Danish Agendas Project, 24 categories, Laws Danish Agendas Project, 24 categories, Ap propriations Breunig, 22 categories, Spe nding Mortensen, 13 categories, Table 2. List of Danish series ID Description Data Source and Identity 1 Elections Federal Public Services, Demonstrations Belgian Political Agenda-Setting Project, 30 categories, Newspapers Belgian Political Agenda-Setting Project, 30 categories, TV Coverage Belgian Political Agenda-Setting Project, 30 categories, Party platforms Belgian Political Agenda-Setting Project, 30 categories, Interpellations Belgian Political Agenda-Setting Project, 30 categories, Government agreement Belgian Political Agenda-Setting Project, 30 categories, Written Questions Belgian Political Agenda-Setting Project, 30 categories, Bills Belgian Political Agenda-Setting Project, 30 categories, Laws Belgian Political Agenda-Setting Project, 30 categories, Executive Orders Belgian Political Agenda-Setting Project, 30 categories, Budgets Belgian Political Agenda-Setting Project, 30 categories, Table 3. List of Belgian series 2
3 Comparative Institutional Friction Web Appendix ID Description Data Source and Identity 1 Presidential vote Nardulli, , by state 2 House vote King, , by district 3 Senate vote Highton, , by seat 4 NYT stories Policy Agendas Project, , 19 categories 5 Bills House Wilkerson, (with missing), 19 categories 6 Bills Senate Wilkerson, , 19 categories 7 Hearings - House Policy Agendas Project, , 19 categories 8 Hearings - Senate Policy Agendas Project, , 19 categories 9 Executive Orders Policy Agendas Project, , 19 categories 10 CQ Stories Policy Agendas Project, , 19 categories 11 Statutes Policy Agendas Project, , 19 categories 12 Total Budget Outlays Policy Agendas Project, , 1 category 13 Budget Authority Policy Agendas Project, , 60 categories Descriptive Statistics Table 4. List of United States series Descriptive statistics for each variable follow. Note that all variables are calculated in terms of the percent of the total agenda at time t. Percent changes are then calculated from this base. (So if a given item is 10 percent of the total at time t and 11 percent at time t+1, then it scores as a 10 percent growth for time t+1.) Election figures, which are already expressed in terms of percentages, are not transformed. Finally, in order to avoid biasing our results in our favor, we have excluded any percent change figures that are over +1,000 percent. These are listed as missing data in the dataset. Categories with zero counts in either year are also deleted. (There are two reasons for this: First, if we multiplied the number of categories which had no observations for many time periods; each of these would show no change from time to time, thus inflating the apparent incidence of no change and the size of the central peak of the distribution. Second, percentages based on a baseline of zero are undefined.) Both of these decisions to exclude data are designed to be as conservative as possible so that any results confirming our hypotheses cannot possibly be related to these decisions; each works towards deflating rather than increasing the reported kurtosis scores. The tables below provides the basic descriptive 3
4 Comparative Institutional Friction Web Appendix statistics and Normality tests for all the series of each country (Tables 5-7). The descriptive statistics include the minimum, median, mean, maximum, inter-quartile range, variance, and the number of cases. The Normality tests compass Pearson s kurtosis measure, Hosking s L- kurtosis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (D), and the Shapiro-Wilk Normality test (W). ID Description min median mean max IQR var N 1 Elections Interpellations Questions Laws Appropriations Spending Table 5a. Descriptive statistics for the Danish series. ID Description kurtosis L-kurtosis D p W p 1 Elections Interpellations Questions Laws Appropriations Spending Table 5b. Normality tests for the Danish series. ID Description min median mean max IQR var N 1 Elections Demonstrations Newspapers TV Coverage Party platforms Interpellations Government agreement Written Questions Bills Laws Executive Orders Budgets Table 6a. Descriptive statistics for the Belgian series. 4
5 Comparative Institutional Friction Web Appendix ID Description kurtosis L-kurtosis D p W p 1 Elections Demonstrations Newspapers TV Coverage Party platforms Interpellations Government agreement Written Questions Bills Laws Executive Orders Budgets Table 6b. Normality tests for the Belgian series. ID Description min median mean max IQR var N 1 Presid ential vote Ho use vote Senat e vote NYT stories Bills House Bills Senate Hearings - House Hearings - Senate Exec utive Orders C Q Stories St atutes To tal Budget Outlays Bu dget Authority Table 7a. Descriptive statistics for the United States series. ID Description kurtosis L-kurtosis D p W p 1 Presid ential vote Ho use vote Senat e vote NYT stories Bills House Bills Senate Hearings - House Hearings - Senate Exec utive Orders C Q Stories St atutes To tal Budget Outlays Bu dget Authority Table 7b. Normality tests for the United States series. 5
6 Comparative Institutional Friction Web Appendix Frequency Distributions Each of the plots in this section presents one series of data as a frequency distribution. The optimum bin size is calculated using the Sheather and Jones (1991) kernel density estimation. A Normal distribution with identical mean and variance is overlaid. The dashes at the top of the graphs indicate the observations at each value. 6
7 Histogram for Elections in Denmark Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.255
8 Histogram for Interpellations in Denmark Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.355
9 Histogram for Questions in Denmark Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.265
10 Histogram for Laws in Denmark Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.263
11 Histogram for Appropriations in Denmark Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.493
12 Histogram for Spending in Denmark Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.432
13 Histogram for Elections in Belgium Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.139
14 Histogram for Demonstrations in Belgium Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.296
15 Histogram for Newspapers in Belgium Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.192
16 Histogram for TV coverage in Belgium Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.305
17 Histogram for Party platforms in Belgium Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.256
18 Histogram for Interpellations in Belgium Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.304
19 Histogram for Government agreements in Belgium Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.379
20 Histogram for Written questions in Belgium Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.229
21 Histogram for Bills in Belgium Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.323
22 Histogram for Laws in Belgium Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.287
23 Histogram for Executive orders in Belgium Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.322
24 Histogram for Budgets in Belgium Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.642
25 Histogram for Presidential elections in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.252
26 Histogram for House elections in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.301
27 Histogram for Senate elections in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.219
28 Histogram for NYT stories in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.283
29 Histogram for House bills in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.206
30 Histogram for Senate bills in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.231
31 Histogram for House hearings in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.33
32 Histogram for Senate hearings in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.27
33 Histogram for Executive orders in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.254
34 Histogram for CQ stories in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.29
35 Histogram for Statutes in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.253
36 Histogram for Total outlays in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.544
37 Histogram for Budget authority in the United States Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.481
38 Comparative Institutional Friction Web Appendix Log-Log and Semi-Log Plots For each variable we present the cumulative number of observations at or above each value, once on a log-log scale and once where the values are on a logged scale but the frequencies are not (semi-log plot). Distributions that correspond to a Paretian, or power-law, distribution will display a straight line on the log-log plot. Distributions that are exponential will show a straight line on the semi-log presentation. Normal distributions would drop off quickly on the semi-log presentation, and even more quickly on the log-log presentation. We show both the and the tails separately on the same plots ( tails are multiplied by -1 in order to present them on the same scale as the tails). 7
39 Semi log plot for Elections in Denmark β pos = 0.14 R 2 = 0.98 β neg = 0.16 R 2 = 0.96
40 Semi log plot for Interpellations in Denmark β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.86 β neg = 0.02 R 2 = 0.98
41 Semi log plot for Questions in Denmark β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.97 β neg = 0.02 R 2 = 0.88
42 Semi log plot for Laws in Denmark β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.97 β neg = 0.02 R 2 = 0.95
43 Semi log plot for Appropriations in Denmark β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.59 β neg = 0.02 R 2 = 0.92
44 Semi log plot for Spending in Denmark β pos = 0.01 R 2 = 0.67 β neg = 0.04 R 2 = 0.96
45 Semi log plot for Elections in Belgium β pos = 0.07 R 2 = 0.77 β neg = 0.18 R 2 = 0.97
46 Semi log plot for Demonstrations in Belgium β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.97 β neg = 0.01 R 2 = 0.92
47 Semi log plot for Newspapers in Belgium β pos = 0.01 R 2 = 0.84 β neg = 0.03 R 2 = 0.99
48 Semi log plot for TV coverage in Belgium β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.78 β neg = 0.03 R 2 = 0.96
49 Semi log plot for Party platforms in Belgium β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.98 β neg = 0.01 R 2 = 0.92
50 Semi log plot for Interpellations in Belgium β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.97 β neg = 0.02 R 2 = 0.9
51 Semi log plot for Government agreements in Belgium β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.9 β neg = 0.01 R 2 = 0.98
52 Semi log plot for Written questions in Belgium β pos = 0.01 R 2 = 0.88 β neg = 0.03 R 2 = 0.94
53 Semi log plot for Bills in Belgium β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.94 β neg = 0.02 R 2 = 0.89
54 Semi log plot for Laws in Belgium β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.89 β neg = 0.02 R 2 = 0.78
55 Semi log plot for Executive orders in Belgium β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.87 β neg = 0.02 R 2 = 0.93
56 Semi log plot for Budgets in Belgium β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.65 β neg = 0.02 R 2 = 0.95
57 Semi log plot for Presidential elections in the United States β pos = 0.05 R 2 = 0.96 β neg = 0.04 R 2 = 0.97
58 Semi log plot for House elections in the United States β pos = 0.05 R 2 = 0.99 β neg = 0.05 R 2 = 0.98
59 Semi log plot for Senate elections in the United States β pos = 0.05 R 2 = 0.98 β neg = 0.04 R 2 = 0.99
60 Semi log plot for NYT stories in the United States β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.88 β neg = 0.03 R 2 = 0.91
61 Semi log plot for House bills in the United States β pos = 0.01 R 2 = 0.94 β neg = 0.03 R 2 = 0.97
62 Semi log plot for Senate bills in the United States β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.66 β neg = 0.03 R 2 = 0.97
63 Semi log plot for House hearings in the United States β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.93 β neg = 0.02 R 2 = 0.98
64 Semi log plot for Senate hearings in the United States β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.85 β neg = 0.03 R 2 = 0.9
65 Semi log plot for Executive orders in the United States β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.98 β neg = 0.02 R 2 = 0.84
66 Semi log plot for CQ stories in the United States β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.91 β neg = 0.03 R 2 = 0.92
67 Semi log plot for Statutes in the United States β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.93 β neg = 0.03 R 2 = 0.91
68 Semi log plot for Total outlays in the United States β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.64 β neg = 0.03 R 2 = 0.96
69 Semi log plot for Budget authority in the United States β pos = 0 R 2 = 0.86 β neg = 0.02 R 2 = 0.98
70 Log log plot for Elections in Denmark β pos= 1.18 R 2 = 0.82 β neg= 1.1 R 2 = Log of Change
71 Log log plot for Interpellations in Denmark β pos= 1.24 R 2 = 0.93 β neg= 1.23 R 2 = Log of Change
72 Log log plot for Questions in Denmark β pos= 1.27 R 2 = 0.84 β neg= 1.1 R 2 = Log of Change
73 Log log plot for Laws in Denmark β pos= 1.4 R 2 = 0.84 β neg= 1.14 R 2 = Log of Change
74 Log log plot for Appropriations in Denmark β pos= 1.01 R 2 = 0.97 β neg= 1.32 R 2 = Log of Change
75 Log log plot for Spending in Denmark β pos= 1.09 R 2 = 0.95 β neg= 1.31 R 2 = Log of Change
76 Log log plot for Elections in Belgium β pos= 1.36 R 2 = 0.83 β neg= 1.42 R 2 = Log of Change
77 Log log plot for Demonstrations in Belgium β pos= 1.01 R 2 = 0.85 β neg= 0.88 R 2 = Log of Change
78 Log log plot for Newspapers in Belgium β pos= 1.43 R 2 = 0.87 β neg= 1.78 R 2 = Log of Change
79 Log log plot for TV coverage in Belgium β pos= 1.09 R 2 = 0.93 β neg= 1.58 R 2 = Log of Change
80 Log log plot for Party platforms in Belgium β pos= 1.27 R 2 = 0.87 β neg= 0.92 R 2 = Log of Change
81 Log log plot for Interpellations in Belgium β pos= 1.07 R 2 = 0.85 β neg= 1.37 R 2 = Log of Change
82 Log log plot for Government agreements in Belgium β pos= 0.7 R 2 = 0.92 β neg= 0.76 R 2 = Log of Change
83 Log log plot for Written questions in Belgium β pos= 1.27 R 2 = 0.89 β neg= 1.37 R 2 = Log of Change
84 Log log plot for Bills in Belgium β pos= 1.12 R 2 = 0.9 β neg= 1.27 R 2 = Log of Change
85 Log log plot for Laws in Belgium β pos= 1.13 R 2 = 0.92 β neg= 1.54 R 2 = Log of Change
86 Log log plot for Executive orders in Belgium β pos= 1.11 R 2 = 0.91 β neg= 1.46 R 2 = Log of Change
87 Log log plot for Budgets in Belgium β pos= 0.72 R 2 = 0.97 β neg= 0.95 R 2 = Log of Change
88 Log log plot for Presidential elections in the United States β pos= 1.77 R 2 = 0.81 β neg= 1.68 R 2 = Log of Change
89 Log log plot for House elections in the United States β pos= 1.8 R 2 = 0.71 β neg= 1.68 R 2 = Log of Change
90 Log log plot for Senate elections in the United States β pos= 1.76 R 2 = 0.81 β neg= 1.67 R 2 = Log of Change
91 Log log plot for NYT stories in the United States β pos= 1.43 R 2 = 0.9 β neg= 1.6 R 2 = Log of Change
92 Log log plot for House bills in the United States β pos= 1.65 R 2 = 0.89 β neg= 1.86 R 2 = Log of Change
93 Log log plot for Senate bills in the United States β pos= 1.53 R 2 = 0.9 β neg= 1.76 R 2 = Log of Change
94 Log log plot for House hearings in the United States β pos= 1.36 R 2 = 0.91 β neg= 1.45 R 2 = Log of Change
95 Log log plot for Senate hearings in the United States β pos= 1.4 R 2 = 0.91 β neg= 1.84 R 2 = Log of Change
96 Log log plot for Executive orders in the United States β pos= 1.21 R 2 = 0.83 β neg= 1.5 R 2 = Log of Change
97 Log log plot for CQ stories in the United States β pos= 1.31 R 2 = 0.9 β neg= 1.64 R 2 = Log of Change
98 Log log plot for Statutes in the United States β pos= 1.36 R 2 = 0.87 β neg= 1.62 R 2 = Log of Change
99 Log log plot for Total outlays in the United States β pos= 0.91 R 2 = 0.97 β neg= 1.28 R 2 = Log of Change
100 Log log plot for Budget authority in the United States β pos= 1.12 R 2 = 0.92 β neg= 1.36 R 2 = Log of Change
101 Web Appendix add on We added the radio news coverage to the Danish series. In Table 2, the Danish radio series will be listed with the ID number 7. The series entails 23 categories and runs from To Table 5 a and b the following descriptive statistics can be added. mean median var IQR min max N KS-stat KS-p SW-stat SW-p kurtosis L-kurtosis The following graphics can also be added: Histogram for Radio News in Denmark Probability Density L kurtosis: 0.245
102 Log Log Plot for Radio News in Denmark β pos = 1.37 R 2 = 0.9 β neg = 1.73 R 2 = Log of Growth Rate
103 Semi Log Plot for Radio News in Denmark β pos = 0.01 R 2 = 0.89 β neg = 0.03 R 2 = Growth Rate
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