IJM LAND BUY. Share price discovery to fair value taking hold! Company report. (Maintained) Rationale for report: Company Update PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT
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1 Cmp rprt B Chw, CA / Nik Ikhw PROPERTY DEVELOPENT I LAND (ILD K, ILAND.KL) 9 l Shr pric discvr t fir vl tkig hld! ikhw-mhmd@mkgrp.cm Rtil fr rprt: Cmp Updt BUY (itid) Pric ir Vl 5-wk High/Lw K Chgs ir vl EPS R.59 R3.8 R.76/R.76 Uchgd YE t r Y Y3 Y4 Y5 Rv (Rmil),6.,557.,863.,6.7 Cr t prfit (Rmil) EPS (S) EPS grwth (%) / Csss EPS (S) / / / / DPS (S) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Div ild (%) ROE (%) Nt Grig (%) / / / / Stck d icil Dt Shrs Otstdig (milli),388.4 rkt Cp (Rmil) 3,595.8 Bk vl (R/shr).75 P/BV (x).5 ROE (%) 9. Nt Grig (%) / jr Shrhldrs I Crp (66%) GIC (5.8%) r lt (%) 3. Avg Dil Vl (Rmil).3 Pric prfrmc 3mth 6mth mth Aslt (%) (.) Rltiv (%).5 7. (3.9) ). (R,77,57,36 I d x P i ts Ivstmt Highlights W rffirm r BUY rtig I Ld, with chgd fir vl f R3.8/shr sd % disct t r fll-diltd NAV f R4./shr. Dspit th rct c i its shr pric, th vlti r-rtig ccl is still t its ifc. Svrl ctlsts r fldig t prd ltd pprciti f I Ld s rpid scdc s llwthr prprt stck. O th mcr frt, w xpct rtr f pt-p rsidtil dmd ftr xtdd lll sic 3Q. I Ld s dt f its highl ticiptd twship Bdr Rim (GDV: Ril) i Sptmr this r wld srl sll-t. Erl sigs f rst dmd r lrd vidt frm th vrwhlmig rgistrti (>6,) d highr idictiv sllig pric (R58k/it). Bdr Rim l wld prplld pr-sls 35% t R.5il i th crrt fiscl r Y3, sd th lch f Phs I (56 its) d Phs II (5 its) f ldd hms with cmid GDV f R65mil. Prsls t Bdr Rim wld stp t R8mil i Y4, rchig R.il i Y5. With Bdr Rim s th crrst, I Ld s ttl pr-sls r xpctd t srg t R3.3il i Y4, d R4.il i Y5. I Ld is ls mvig t cpitlis th mtrit f its rsidtil prjcts d th high ivstmt pptit fr rtil ssts. It is cclrtig pls t dvlp sr rtil mlls i t lst thr prim sits Srm II, Th Light d i Tr hr. Tlks with rtil V prtrs r gig. Sch mv, if it mtriliss, shld drpi NAV grwth frm vl crti. At sm pit, prt I Crp m st trdig liqidit i I Ld prig its crrt stk f 66% t cclrt shr pric discvr t fir vl. W liv sll-dw m hig th trrd frm its dprssd cstrcti divisi (9% f I Crp s prfit crrtl), which m tk hld Y4. W d t rl t mrkt tlk f pttil vl-ccrtiv cqisitis, giv its strg C d lc sht ,6 96 O th flipsid, w drstd tht th grp is crrtl rcfigrig th pls fr Light Cllcti 3 (GDV: R365mil) t hc th ppl f th dvlpmt. This prjct is trgtd t r-lchd i 4Q. PP 47/6/3 (338) I Ld B KLCI W r risig r Y4 d Y5 stimts 3%-5% t R83mil-R349mil rprstig 9%-3% grwth t rflct th srg i I Ld s pr-sls, t chrd Bdr Rim.
2 I Ld 9 l AINTAIN OUR BUY RATING W rffirm r BUY rtig I Ld, with chgd fir vl f R3.8/shr sd % disct t r fll-diltd NAV f R4./shr. Dspit th rct c i its shr pric, th vlti r-rtig ccl is still t its ifc. Svrl ctlsts r fldig t prd ltd pprciti f I Ld s rpid scdc s llwthr prprt stck. O th mcr frt, w xpct rtr f pt-p rsidtil dmd ftr xtdd lll sic 3Q. I Ld s dt f its highl ticiptd twship Bdr Rim (GDV: Ril) i Sptmr this r wld srl sll-t. Erl sigs f rst dmd r lrd vidt frm th vrwhlmig rgistrti (>6,) d highr idictiv sllig pric (R58k/it). I Ld is ls mvig t cpitlis th mtrit f its rsidtil prjcts d th high ivstmt pptit fr rtil ssts. It is cclrtig pls t dvlp sr rtil mlls i t lst thr prim sits Srm II, Th Light d i Tr hr. Tlks with rtil V prtrs r gig. Sch mv, if it mtriliss, shld drpi NAV grwth frm vl crti. At sm pit, prt I Crp m st trdig liqidit i I Ld prig its crrt stk f 66% t cclrt shr pric discvr t fir vl. W liv sll-dw m hig th trrd frm its dprssd cstrcti divisi (9% f I Crp s prfit crrtl), which m tk hld Y4. W d t rl t mrkt tlk f pttil vl-ccrtiv cqisitis, giv its strg C d lc sht. BANDAR RIBAYU Th lshig f Bdr Rim t xcit th prprt sctr gi! As highlightd i r strtg pic, w r xpctig strg rtr f pt-p dmd t tk plc giv th rmlisti f th impct f ldig gidlis, ctid risti d svrl prlific prjcts, ml I Ld s Bdr Rim, t kick strt ig mmtm. This dvlpmt will giv I Ld strg fthld i th lcrtiv twship dvlpmt i th Klg Vll. W stimt tht th l pr-sls t Cl Cit m rch Ril std stt scri. This is lrd t fiv tims th l pr-sls t its xistig flgship Srm II twship Th sigificc f this ldk is its ttrctiv pricig, shr siz d immdit dvlpmt pttil giv lrg rsidtil ctchmt i th lclit. Th cqisiti is ls gd tstmt t I Ld s impccl xcti d mrkt ptrti cs it hs xtrml rr t gi ccss t lrg prcl f ld i th Klg Vll i rct rs. Th lst ig ld dl ws t rs g wh S P Sti cqird sm 6, crs f dvlpmt ld t Sti Alm. Bdr Rim t prpl pr-sls Bdr Rim l wld prpl pr-sls 35% t R.5il i th crrt fiscl r Y3, sd th lch f Phs I (56 its) d Phs II (5 its) f ldd hms with cmid GDV f R65mil. Pr-sls t Bdr Rim wld stp t R8mil i Y4, rchig R.il i Y5. With Bdr Rim s th crrst, I Ld s ttl pr-sls r xpctd t srg t R3.3il i Y4, d R4.il i Y5. PICTURE : BANDAR RIBAYU LAYOUT Bdr Rim is ccssil vi th xistig Kt Src: Cmp AmRsrch Sd Bhd
3 I Ld 9 l PICTURE : BANDAR RIBAYU IS SERVED BY OUR HIGHWAYS Src: Cmp Kmig twship s wll s vi th Sj Ptr Itrchg lg th ELITE Highw. It is ls cctd KESAS, Sth Klg Vll Exprssw (SKVE), Lhr Kmig Shh Alm (LKSA) d th prpsd Wst Cst Exprssw (WCE). I Ld will sprhd th tir dvlpmt f Bdr Rim. It will psitid s mdim- t high-d dvlpmt, with mid lchs f th rd-dttr trrc hss xpctd 3Q. Th idictiv pricig rg is tw R5,/it d R6,/it. T rcp, Bdr Rim will sit mssiv,898 crs f ld, djct t th mtr Kt Kmig twship. Th ld ws cqird fr t R5psf r R436mil, with th pmt t stggrd vr fr rs. I Ld hs 5%-stk i th dvlpmt, with Kmpl Erpls Bhd (KEr) hldig th lc 5%. Th tir twship dvlpmt is xpctd t grt sigifict GDV f Ril lmst dl tht f prvis GDV stimt f R6.5il - vr 5 rs. Th prjct will cmpris, hms d t 5% f th ld r will llctd fr cmmrcil h. Th dvlpmt will dividd it fr prcicts ( ) th lr d mixd rsidtil rs with mitis sch s shps d schls, () cmmrcil h t icld th cl, tw sqr d srvic prtmts d (c) B which will ftr high-d wtrfrt rsidtil dvlpmt th lksid cvrig r f 8 crs. W hv ls fctrd ldd t prfit mrgi f lcrtiv % vr th twship s lif ccl cs f th lw tr pric d std pprciti i d-sllig prics vr tim. Phs shld sld t withi wks I Ld wld lchig th first phs f Bdr Rim i 4QCY. Th mid prjct, t clld Th Chims, will csist f 56 lik-hss with ilt-ps f tw,sf d,4sf pr it d ld r f x 75 & 4 x 75. I Ld is trgtig pgrdrs frm Shh Alm, Pchg, Crj, Ptrj, Bdr Btic d Bkit Tiggi i Klg, Btig, jrm d l K. W drstd thr r vr 6, rgistrts fr this phs l d t srprisigl, th pricig f ths its hs risd giv th strg dmd. W drstd itrmdit its will w pricd t R58,/it vrss th rlir idictiv pric f R5,/it t R53,/it. I dditi t tht, prics f similr rctl-cmpltd its withi th Kt Kmig r r lrd sllig t R63k/it t R65k/it. Giv th xpctd strg tk-p fr Th Chims, th TABLE : RECENT TRANSACTED PRICES OR LINKHOUSES WITHIN THE AREA Dvlpmt Lclit Pric (R) Ld siz Tr Alm Impi Shh Alm 6k-7k x7 rhld Kt Kmig Kmig 54k-89k Vris rhld Sti Alm Klg 68k-7k x 75 rhld Di Alm Shh Alm 5k-96k x7 rhld TTDI Alm Impi Shh Alm 65k - 8k x 75, 4x 75 rhld Sw Alm Sri Shh Alm 57k - 74k x65 Lshld Src: AmRsrch/ Vris mgmt ds t disct th pssiilit f th AmRsrch Sd Bhd 3
4 I Ld 9 l TABLE : NAV ESTIATE Dvlpm t prprtis GDV, (R mils) Existig Prsls, s t rch, Exstig Usld Ivtr 3 Phs I - Th Light - Th Light Cllctis 6 - S-frt vills 3 Bdr Rim (prvisl Cl Cit) - 5% stk, Phs II - Th Light 4, Srm II - 43 crs (Cmmrcil), Shh Alm II - 65 crs 9 S Cv - 88 crs, 7% w d,3 Bkit Pd, Chrs - Shg Vills - 5: 5 V w ith Tlm - 4 crs 37 S Hights, Srm II - 5 crs,4 Wgs j- Ri Gr Est - Phs II & III - V w ith SL Ld - 7: 3V 3 Tm Prlig 8 crs, hr 3 Prms - crs fr pts, hr Bhr Bdr Utm 55 crs, Sdk, Kchig- cd lcks d Htls, Srw k 8 Othrs 3 Chi-cmmrcil cm rsidtil: 5:5 V w ith Tlm 35 NPV f dvlpm t 8% 7, 5,856 Ivstmt prprtis - Git Sdk 8 - Offic ildig, Pg 4 - O prcl f cmmrcil ld t l Rj Lt,.5 crs R,5psf 98 Estimtd mrkt vl f ivstmt prprtis 8 Othr ssts 8 Cstrcti 8x PE 56 Grss Assts Vl, (GAV) 6, Lss: Nt dts, Y3 99 Nt Assts Vl, (NAV) 6,39 dd: Csh frm cvrsi f w rrts 37 6,66 Pid-p cpitl, (m),349 dd: Nw shrs frm cvrsi f w rrts, (m) 7 Elrgd pid-p cpitl, (m),576 ll Diltd NAV/shr, (R) 4. Shr pric, s t 8 l, (R).59 Disct t fll-diltd NAV -38% Src: Cmp / AmRsrch lch f phs t cclrtd, th rlist Q3. SERI RIANA RESIDENCES WELL RECEIVED Sri Ri Rsidcs (GDV: 585mil) sits 8. cr f lshld ld i Wgs j. Th dvlpmt cmpriss fiv lcks f prtmt its tw high-ris d thr lw-ris hsig 396 its. Th high-ris lcks r 38-strs high, d th lw-ris t six t sv strs. Th first phs (GDV: R3mil) ws lchd 3 d th tk-p rt hs imprssiv with Blck A s its 95% sld icldig Bmi its whil Blck B sw 6% tk-p rt with vrg pric f R5psf. st f th prchsrs r rpt rs. Th d phs, t lchd ltr, will cmpris tw lcks with 84 cdmiim its. Th dvlpmt wld icld.8-cr thmd ldscp prk, mditi r d hmmck r prt frm th sl sprts ctr, childr s plz, ifiit pl d mr. T rcp, Sri Ri Rsidcs is V tw I Ld d SL Prprtis. This is th scd V tw th tw cmpis ftr Ri Gr Est, high-ris dvlpmt i Wgs j. UPDATE ON THE LIGHT PENANG Rcfigrig pls fr Light Cllcti 3 I Ld is rcfigrig its pls fr Light Cllcti 3 (iitil GDV: R365mil) d lkig t r-lchig this prdct i Sptmr r Octr this r, vis-à-vis th iitil trgt f d lst r. W drstd I Ld wld tkig t trrcd its frm th pls t hc th ppl f th dvlpmt. Ol Bmi its lft fr Light Cllcti & W t tht th its fr th Light Lir d Light Pit r fll sld t icldig th Bmi its. whil thr r l Bmi its lft fr Cllcti &. Rclmti fr Phs t cmpltd rd Th ld rclmti fr Phs (GDV: R4.5il), which cmmcd lst Octr, wld cmpltd rd. W drstd th grp is lrd tlkig t svrl prtis fr lc sl f th tiq ffics thr d is lkig t cmpltig th dl H3. T rcp, Phs which sits 3cr pic f ld cmpriss th fllwig:-. Itgrtd Cmmrcil Cit - () Offic twr () Htls fmil htl, tiq d sp htl, 5-str high-ris siss htl (c) Sigtr ffics & shwrms (d) Bqt & cfrc fcilitis () trist fcilitis d () Rtil sctr cmprisig shppig, diig d trtimt fcilitis. AmRsrch Sd Bhd 4
5 I Ld 9 l INANCIALS AND VALUATION W r risig r Y4 d Y5 stimts 3%- 5% t R83mil-R349mil t rflct th srg i I Ld s pr-sls, t chrd Bdr Rim. Bdr Rim l wld prpl pr-sls 35% t R.5il i th crrt fiscl r Y3, sd th lch f Phs I (56 its) d Phs II (5 its) f ldd hms with cmid GDV f R65mil. Prsls t Bdr Rim wld stp t R8mil i Y4, rchig R.il i Y5. With Bdr Rim s th crrst, I Ld s ttl prsls r xpctd t srg t R3.3il i Y4, d R4.il i Y5. I Ld is crrtl trdig t 38% disct t its stimtd NAV f R4./shr, frm t 5% wh r strtg rprt vig twrds liqidit-driv rll? ws issd 9 l, wh w r-itrt r ctrri OVERWEIGHT stc th prprt sctr. W xpct I Ld s disct t its NAV t rrw frthr i th r trm, t driv strg wsflw. TABLE 3: PROPERTY SECTOR SNAPSHOT Stck Rtig Pric ir vl EPS (s) PE (x) Yild (%) NAV/shr Prmim/ (R/shr) (R/shr) Y Y Y (R) (disct) t NAV I Ld* BUY (38.3) SP Sti HOLD (3.) IGB Crp BUY (39.4) BRDB HOLD (37.6) Sw Bhd HOLD (34.3) CT HOLD Pvili REIT HOLD Al Aqr HOLD *EPS, PE & Yild r fr Y3 Src: Cmp / AmRsrch AmRsrch Sd Bhd 5
6 I Ld 9 l CHART : PB BAND CHART CHART : PE BAND CHART ) (x. +s Avg s 3.6 (x ) 3.4 +s Avg.6 6. s. A g N v A g N v 9. A g N v A g N v AmRsrch Sd Bhd 6
7 I Ld 9 l TABLE 4: INANCIAL DATA Icm Sttmt (Rmil, YE 3 r) Rv,6.,6.,557.,863.,6.7 EBITDA Dprciti (9.6) (.) (.6) (.) (.7) Oprtig icm (EBIT) Othr icm & sscits Nt itrst (.8) Excptil itms..... Prtx prfit Txti (6.5) (8.6) (8.6) (96.9) (8.9) iritis/prf dividds (6.4) (6.6) (6.9) (7.) (7.6) Nt prfit Cr t prfit Blc Sht (Rmil, YE 3 r) ixd ssts Itgil ssts..... Othr lg-trm ssts,34.,3.6,45.7,445.,48.5 Ttl -crrt ssts,38.5,563.6,834.,966.,4. Csh & qivlt Stck Trd dtrs Othr crrt ssts,43.3,53.4,66.9,669.7,7. Ttl crrt ssts,897.,9.9,99.4 3,67.8 3,93. Trd crditrs Shrt-trm rrwigs Othr crrt liilitis Ttl crrt liilitis Lg-trm rrwigs Othr lg-trm liilitis Ttl lg-trm liilitis,469.4,5.,336.6,355.3,354.4 Shrhldrs fds,836.,49.6,67.6,88.7 3,6.9 irit itrsts BV/shr (R) Csh lw (Rmil, YE 3 r) Prtx prfit Dprciti Nt chg i wrkig cpitl 4.5 (56.) (3.) (3.5) (44.) Othrs (.) (9.) (.7) (36.9) (9.) Csh flw frm prtis Cpitl xpditr (75.) (3.) (.) (.) (.) Nt ivstmts & sl f fixd ssts 5.8 (8.) (5.) (5.) (5.) Othrs. 5.6 (5.). (.) Csh flw frm ivstig (4.3) (7.6) (65.) (4.) (7.) Dt risd/(rpid) (.3).4. Eqit risd/(rpid) Dividds pid (.) (55.) (35.) (4.9) (5.7) Othrs (.) Csh flw frm ficig (4.5) (4.4) (6.5) Nt csh flw 33.7 (.5) (.3) Nt csh/(dt) /f 7. (48.9) (9.) Nt csh/(dt) c/f (9.6) K Rtis (YE 3 r) Rv grwth (%) EBITDA grwth (%) 58. / Prtx mrgis (%) Nt prfit mrgis (%) Itrst cvr (x) Effctiv tx rt (%) Nt dividd pt (%) Dtrs trvr (ds) Stck trvr (ds) Crditrs trvr (ds) Src: Cmp, AmRsrch stimts AmRsrch Sd Bhd 7
8 I Ld 9 l Achr pit fr disclimr txt x Plishd AmRsrch Sd Bhd (3355-P) (A mmr f th AmIvstmt Bk Grp) 5 t h l r B g A mb k Grp 55 l Rj Chl 5 Kl Lmpr Tl: ( 3 ) ( r s rc h) x: ( 3 ) Pritd AmRsrch Sd Bhd (3355-P) (A mmr f th AmIvstmt Bk Grp) 5 t h l r B g A mb k Grp 55 l Rj Chl 5 Kl Lmpr Tl: ( 3 ) ( r s rc h) x: ( 3 ) Th ifrmti d piis i this rprt wr prprd AmRsrch Sd Bhd. Th ivstmts discssd r rcmmdd i this rprt m t sitl fr ll ivstrs. This rprt hs prprd fr ifrmti prpss l d is t ffr t sll r slicitti t scritis. Th dirctrs d mpls f AmRsrch Sd Bhd m frm tim t tim hv psiti i r with th scritis mtid hri. mrs f th AmIvstmt Grp d thir ffilits m prvid srvics t cmp d ffilits f sch cmpis whs scritis r mtid hri. Th ifrmti hri ws tid r drivd frm srcs tht w liv r rlil, t whil ll rsl cr hs tk t sr tht sttd fcts r ccrt d piis fir d rsl, w d t rprst tht it is ccrt r cmplt d it shld t rlid p s sch. N liilit c ccptd fr lss tht m ris frm th s f this rprt. All piis d stimts icldd i this rprt cstitt r jdgmt s f this dt d r sjct t chg witht tic. r AmRsrch Sd Bhd B Chw gig Dirctr AmRsrch Sd Bhd 8
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