A Non-parametric Regression Model for Consumption of Urban Residents and Foreign Exchange Reserve
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1 ode Aed Scece Novembe 009 A No-metc Regesso ode fo Cosmto of Ub Resdets d Foeg Echge Reseve Ng & gdog Sog Detmet of obbty Theoy d themtc Sttstcs sh Uvesty Qhgdo Ch E-m: mddt3@6.com Abstct The cosmto of b esdets d the foeg echge eseves e mott dctos of ecoomc deveomet d betee hch thee ested stbe etosh. oc oyom egesso estmto method of the o-metc egesso mode s dscssed d cosdeg the hstoc dt of Ch s cosmto of b esdets d foeg echge eseves fom 98 to 003 hch s eseched sg the oc oyom egesso estmto method of the o-metc egesso mode e bt ts o-metc egesso mode d come t th the oyom fttg mode. The ests shoed tht o-metc egesso mode s seo to oyom fttg mode. Keyods: No-metc egesso oc oyom egesso estmto oyom fttg The cosmto of b esdets s sgfct ecoomc dcto hch efects the ecoomc stto of oe coty. Wth the deveomet of Ch's ecoomc efom d the sg eve of eoe's come d cosmto t the sme tme foeg tde stts s hvg ofod mct o Ch's ecoomc goth d eoe's vesodog She d Wey Zho Cety s foeg tde cotosy eteds d domestc demd gos the esech of b esdets cosmto demd d ttes c be hef to e the ted of chges cosme demd d the of the cosme goods mket hch c be sef to edct fte demd fo vos tyes of cosme goods d he the eevt govemet detmets to djstmet odct stcte d mke esobe gemets fo foeg tde d ccto hch s of get sgfcce fo the hethy deveomet of ecoomy Hmg Zh d q H0085:7-0EA-zhog00:47. The foeg echge eseve s so sgfct ecoomc dcto hch hs stbe etosh th the cosmto eve of b esdets de the codto of mcoecoomc Ch. Ths e vestgtes the oc oyom egesso estmto method of the o-metc egesso mode hch s sed to emcy esech the etosh betee Ch s cosmto of b esdets d foeg echge eseve.. Nometc egesso mode d oc oyom egesso estmto. ometc egesso mode Defto.: Wth gve s of obseved ve the etosh betee esose vbe d covte vbes s defed by foog eqto: ε Ε ε 0. hee s egesso fcto. Vbe s so ko s chctestc. The estmto of s eeseted by.. oc oyom estmto Ude the Ndy-Wtso kee estmto codto cosde estmto to mmze. Defe eght fcto K / h d chose to mmze the foog eghted qdtc sm. 59
2 Vo. 3 No. ode Aed Scece 60 Soto obted s.3 hch s kee egesso estmto. To move the estmto -ode oc oyom s sed. s fed ve hch s sed to estmte. Fo ve tht beogs to the eghbohood of defe oyom 0.4 hch omtes smooth egesso fcto the eghbohood of tget ve th the foog oyom:..5 To estmte 0 chose 0 hch mmzes the foog eghted qdtc sm: ] [..6 Estmte â deeds o tget ve. Whe 0 the oc estmto of s. Whe.7 Ad W s dgo mt hee j..6 cod be tte s W..8 By mmzg.8 eghted est sqe estmto s obted W W..9 As 0 s the e odct of the fst e fom W W d the thee s: Theoem.: estmto fo the oc oyom egesso s:.0 hee. W W e. 0 0 e d d W ee defed.7. The me ve d covce ve of ths estmto e: Ε.3
3 ode Aed Scece Novembe 009 V σ σ..4 Theoem.: If s e smoothg ve the the eve-oe-ot coss-vdto scoe R h c be tte s R h [ ].5 hch s the th dgo eemets of the smooth mt. The bddth h c be obted by mmzg coss-vdto foms fom theoem.y Wssem A o-metc egesso mode of the cosmto of b esdets d the foeg echge eseve Defe s foeg echge eseves s cosmto of b esdets. The esech sme s the hstoc dt of Ch s foeg echge eseves d cosmto of b esdets dte fom 98 to 003. Dt soces s fom Sttstc ebook of Ch 005. oyom fttg mode Bd 3-ode oyom fttg mode bsed o est sqes method: 3 y oc oyom egesso estmto mode hee. Bd o-mete oc oyom egesso estmto mode of cosmto of b ctczes d foeg echge eseves ccodg to theoem. d theoem. hee 3 h50. The ests e sho Fge Fge Tbe d Tbe. The fttg ests of the foeg echge eseves by oyom fttg mode d o-mete oc oyom egesso estmto mode e sho Fge hch the dot-e eesets the fttg cve of oyom fttg mode d the sod e eesets the fttg cve of o-mete oc oyom egesso estmto mode. Fge shos the estmte ve of the to modes t hch eesets the fttg ve y t ot bsed o oyom fttg mode he eesets the estmte ve t ot bsed o o-mete oc oyom egesso estmto mode. Symbo * eesets the ct ve both Fge d Fge. As sho Fge the fttg cve o-mete oc oyom egesso estmto mode tes th the ct stto bette th tht of oyom fttg mode. I Fge fttg ves both modes tes th the ct ves bt the fome s seo to the tte. Ths c be d fom tbe d tbe. As c be see fom the bove cht t the begg of Ch s efom d oeg the etosh betee the cosmto of b esdets d foeg echge eseves s ot stbe d the votty cod t be egected. Hoeve th the cotos deeeg of Ch s efom d oeg eedg tde th othe cotes movemet of the mket ecoomc system d efecto of to ocy the etosh betee the cosmto of b esdets d foeg echge eseves moe d moe stbe hch cetes fvobe codto fo o stdes Usg oyom fttg mode d o-mete oc oyom egesso estmto mode esectvey to edct the ve of Ch s foeg echge eseve 004 the dffeece betee the fome est d the ct est s ge eo s ge th 000 he the te s cose to eo s ess th Cocso I ct ecoomc fe de to the edcted esos t s dffct to mke secfc ssmto. Wth the movemet of the mket ecoomc system d cesgy cose coecto betee Ch d od ecoomy the coeto betee cosmto of b esdets d foeg echge eseve s moe d moe stbe. No-metc oc oyom egesso estmto mode hs the egesso fcto fom of btess oe eqemet th oyom fttg mode d o eed to cosde the dstbto of the sme mkg o-metc oc oyom egesso estmto the best efecto of coeto betee vbes d the eos e sme th the oyom fttg mode. Refeeces Hmg Zh d q H. 00. A emc yss of the eqbm etosh betee the e ct come d vg eedte b hosehods. Jo of zho Commec Coege.8 5:7-0. Chese y Wssem Tste by zh W A of Nometc Ststcs[]. Bejg: Scece 6
4 Vo. 3 No. ode Aed Scece ess Chese odog She d Wey Zho The dymc etosh betee the e ct come d vg eedte b hosehods - emc yss bsed o ometc egesso mode [J]. Ecoomc Scece. 8- Chese oq He Regesso Ayss d Ecoomc Dt odeg []. Bejg: Ch Rem Uvesty ess. Chte3-4 Chese Che d Sogg Wg ode Regesso Ayss- ce method d cto[]. Hefe: Ah Edcto ess Chese zh W d Zhoj Wg Nometc Sttstc ethod [].Bejg: Hghe Edcto esschte4 Chese E A-zhog. 00. Nomet c Regesso ode of Chese Ifto[J]. Acto of Sttstcs d gemet. :47. Chese E A-zhog Nomete Ecoometcs[]. Tjg: Nk Uvesty esschte6. Chese Z Ecoometcs []. Bejg. Hghe Edcto ess Chte5. Chese Tbe. Comso of SE to modes oyom fttg mode No-mete oc oyom egesso estmto mode Tbe. Comso of fttg ves to modes e y ŷ
5 ode Aed Scece Novembe 009 Fge. Fttg cve to modes Fge. Fttg ve to modes 63
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