John J. Murphy Technical Analysis of the. Futures Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications
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1 John J. Murphy Technical Analysis of the finbay.ru Futures Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications New York Institute of Finance A Prentice-Hall Company. : 1996 :.,... :. -.:, ,,.,. " ''.,. '',. Copyright 1986 by Prentice Hall AU Rights Reserved 1
2 ? " " :, ? (PERCENTAGE RETRACEMENTS)
3 : " " " " " " " " " " V- " " " " " " " " "
4 : ? " " " : (RSI) (K%D) %R (MACDTM) (VA) " "
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6 : : " " " " , " " ? " " " " " ? ? ? :
7 finbay.ru?,,, ,.,,,.,.,,,,,,,. -,.,,,.,.,,,.,,,.,,.,,, " ".,.,..,.,,,..,,,.,,,,,,,, 7
8 .,,,.,,,,,,,. " ",..,, " ",.,...,,,,,.,.,,.,.,..,,, -.,.., : ".." (" ", 1976,. 2)..,,. :,., -, " ".,.,. 1,.,,,,,,.., 8
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14 ,, ,..,,,., ,,,,. - " " - :. : -.,,,,.,., 14
15 .,,.,,,.,,,.., :,..,.,,,, -.,.,,,...,,. ( " ", " " ).,..,, - -.,,,,. :.,.,,.,,,.,.., " "..,...,. 15
16 ,,,,,. -,,,,,.,,.,..,.,,.,,, :.,, " " (leverage).,. ( 10%),,.,,,,,,.,.,,. " ".,,,,.,,., -,,,,,.,,.,.,,,,.,,, :,,.. 16
17 ,,.,,.,,,,. " ",,,, -..,,.,. - " ".,,,. " ",.,,.,,.,.,,. (stock index futures),. (International Stock Markets) (.. 1.2).,...,,..,,,,. 17
18 ,..,, -.,,,,
19 ,,,. :,.,,.. ^. -? " " " - ".,. :,,."?,. Standarand & Poor's 500,.,,.,, Standard & Poor's 500.,,,,,. -, , (CSCE), (Housing Starts) (Consumer Price Index for Wage Earners). (Commodity Research Bureau Futures Price Index)., " ".,,. " 1984 r ("Commodity Year Book"; Commodity Research Bureau, Inc) CRB 19
20 , 1970 (.. 1.3).,, CRB,,,,. : CRB CRB ". (, " CRB - 27, ",. 4)., - CRB,.,,,,,.,. (CPI-W),, (CSCE), ( ) ( ).?, :,,..,.? 20
21 , " " (chartist) " " (technician),,.. " ". - " ". - ",,.,,,.., " ",. -.,,..,,,. "art-charting".,,,.,,,.,,,..,. " " ", " " (black box);,,.., " " " " : -, -..,,. -.,, " ", " ",,,.,.,,.., 21
22 .. -,,,,,,, -,., :..,,,,,.,..,, -,,. :,,.,., ".,,.,, ( )..,... " ".,... 10%. " " (leverage),,..,,, 10%, 10%,,. :,.,,,,., ", 22
23 , 10%. finbay.ru,.,..,..,.,.,,,,,. " ",.. 30, : 4, ,,.,,.,,.., -,., Standard & Poor's 500, ;,.. ',,, CRB..., (new highs-new lows index), (advance-decline line), (short-interest ratio),,. 23
24 ,., -,..,,.,,,,..,, " "..,,. (sentiment indicators) (now of funds analysis). :,,,., " :.,.,,,. :,.,,.,,., " " (contrary opinion theory),.,. " ". :? : ",,, ".,,,. " " (Random Walk Theory), " (buy and hold),,.. 24
25 " finbay.ru,,,. " "?,.,, :. ",. ", " " " " (...)". ".. ". (.. ; ; " ", 1977,.17.).,. " " " ",,.., -,,,,.., ,.,,.,.. " ".,.,.,,., " ", " - ".,,. " ", " ".,,,.,,,.,,,., ", 25
26 . finbay.ru,,,.,.,.,,.. (money management),,., " ".,.,,,,.*,,.,,. ".. -,,.,,.?,,,.,,,,,.?.,,,. - *, " ",. : " ".,!,,,.,, 26
27 ,.,,,,., " ". (. " ", 1969,.383.),,, -.,,.,,. : ",,.,,, ". (. " ",.383.),.,,,,. " " " " (Random Walk Theory)., ",.,. " ", " ",., - " ", " "., " ",,.,,.,,.,., -,, (.. 1.4).,,,,., - 27
28 ( ),. " ",,, ",,,,?,,, -?,,, " "?,?, :,?,?, " ". -.,., " ",, " ".,,,.,,,.,, " ",,.,,,. -..,.,..,., " ",, 70-. " " (Issues in Futures Markets: A Survey), " " 1982., ".,.,.. - " " (A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 1973). 28
29 , 1.4 " ",,,. " "., (Market Technicians Association),., -, : "...,.,,,. " ( " " ( Newsletter) 1984.),,,. 29
30 " " " ". " ", : " "., , , : , 30, ,., " ", 1882., ",.,,,, 80 ".,. ", , 1903,, - " " (The ABC of Stock Speculation, S.A.Nelson). " ".,.?? :, " ",,..,,,.,,,,.,,. 30
31 , " ". " ", " ", " " (The Stock Market Barometer, William Peter Hamilton). " " (Dow Theory, Robert Rhea), 1932.,,,..,,.,,,,.,. 1..,?, 1.,,, -.,,,.,,, " ".,,,. 2..,, :.,. -,,. 4,. :,.,,,.,.,..,,,..,,,,.,,.,.,,,,. 31
32 (, 50%),.. 4,,,. 3..., (accumulation),,.,,.,.,,,,. " ",,. -, " ",, " " (distribute),,,,.,,. 30-, " "..,,. - -,. 4..., -.,,.,.,,,,.,, (..2.1)..',. (.. 2.2). 32
33 . 2.1, (industrials)., (transportation),.,.,.,. 5..,,,,.,.,.,. -,.,.,,.,,. 7.,,,,. -,.. 33
34 ( ) Value Line S&P 500., S&P 500, Value Line,., Value Line,., ( ),., Value Line S&P 500,.. 2. " ".,,. S 34
35 " ".,,,. S1,,,, ( 82). 6.,,., 1,,.,,,.,.,,, -,,,.,,.,,,,.,, ( )..2.4 " ". ( ) " ". 1 2.,,,,,,., ,,., ( S). 35
36 " " (failure swing). finbay.ru 2.36,,. S1,.,,.,, D, S2,.,. 2.36, " (nonfailure swing). " " (. 2. ). 1, ,,. ",.. " "., ".,,,,.,.,,,,, 20% 25%.,,,.,,,..,,. " : % 67% S&P 500.,,,.,,.,,,,,,., 36
37 ,,..,,,., " ",.,,, -.,,..,.,,.,.,,,..,.,,,.,,,,...,.,.,,.,,.,.,,..,, 37
38 ,,.,.,.,,,,.,,,. " (Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, Robert D.Edwards and John Magee). 38
39 3. finbay.ru,,,., (daily bar chart),.,.,, :.,.,,.,,,., ?,
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