A. Integrated analysis of seismicity

Transcription

1 A. Ingad analyss of ssy Conns A. Ingad analyss of ssy A. Evn a ngy las and ss b-valu A.2 onnsv salls sass and q-valu 2 A.3 -doan ahquak dsbuon 3 A.4 Faal suus and haas sals 3 A.5 Band-ld faal 4 A.6 Sngl-lnk lus analyss and saal olaon lngh 5 A.7 EAS odlng 5 A.8 EAS odl wh -dndn fong a 6 A.9 Endd EAS odl 8 A. onaa analyss 8 A. Sasonaly and dal sons of ss avy A.2 Sss dffuson dvd fo ss avy Sasal aas of ahquak oun nludng vn a n uulav vn nub ss b-valu n h agnud fquny laon saal olaon lngh SCL and h faal dnson D 2 of h hyon dsbuon as an ngad s w found n a vous sudy o b usful as an ndao of h al on bhavo of ok fau n sssd ok sals L & Saoh 27. In addon h d-y afshok squn EAS odl slf-ng odl 4D olaon odl w also nludd. Follows dsb sasal odls ofn usd fo haaz ss avy. A. Evn a ngy las and ss b-valu Engy lasd by an ahquak las h agnud by E C A- wh C s a onsan. h os oan ass a C =.75 and.5 whh yld h Bnoff san and h lass ngy svly. h ngy las a an b sad by sung whn a gvn un nval Δ A.-2 E E

2 h uulav ngy las an b sly dfnd by E E d A.-3 h uulav vn nub n of agnud o ga follows h Gunbg Rh agnud fquny laonsh Gunbg and Rh 954 gvn by log n a b A.-4 In Eq. 4 boh a and b a onsan and b s fd o as h b-valu. In gnal b-valu s a funon of ok oy.g dnsy and sz dsbuon of -sng aks/faus and sss lvl L al. 26; 27. Howv fo a gvn ld aa b-valu ay fl sss voluon dasng b-valu s onally a good ndao of nasng sss Sholz 968; Shol al. 25 o dffuson of o ssu L and Saoh 27; Hanzl and Fsh 22. A.2 onnsv salls sass and q-valu Ab S. 22 suggsd ha aong h Rény salls and noalzd salls nos only h salls noy s sabl and an gv s o nally obsvabl quans. o nly a vy nsng odl fo ahquak dynas lad o h salls nonnnsv fawok has bn oosd by h Soolongo-Cosa and Posad 24 as SCP odl. Suh a odl onsss basally of wo ough ofls nang va fagns fllng h ga bwn h wh h fagns a odud by loal bakag of h loal las. log log 2 q log a q q / q2 q 2 q 2 A.2- hs s no a val sul and nooas h haass of nonnsvy no h dsbuon of ahquaks by agnud. h aa a s h onsan of ooonaly bwn and. La h SCP odl has bn vsd by Slva al. 26 by onsdng a dffn dfnon fo an valus n h on of salls nonnsv sass and nodung a sal bwn h ahquak ngy and h sz of fagn ~ 3 ah han ~. log 2 2 q q log log 2 / A.2-2 q 2 q a 3 Vla al. hav sd h vably of h nonnsv odls fo ahquaks fo h bs sudd ao faul zon n h wold.. h San Andas faul. By usng 688 ahquak vns n h nval 2~8 akn fo h wok Eahquak Innaonal Cn aalogs and Bulln of h Innaonal Ssologal Cn hy hav shown n agn wh oh sla analyzs ha fo valus of h nonnsv aa of h od of q =

3 A.3 -doan ahquak dsbuon Wll b nludd n la vson. A.4 Faal suus and haas sals h saal dsbuon of any gologal syss suh as ahquak hyons and av fauls show oly a all sals. Slf-slay and faal dsbuon a ons fo dsbng suh ols. Fo saally dsbud ons suh as ahquak hyons olaon ngal C dfnd by followng quaon s usd o an h slf-slay of h dsbuon 2 R C A.4- Wh R < s h nub of as of ons havng a dsan R lss han. If h dsbuon s faal D2 C would b a ow of C and D 2 s h so-alld faal dnson. In oh wods h - laon n a doubl logah oodna wll b a ln sasally and h slo of h ln gvs a aay faal dnson. h bo-ounng hod BC s also ofn usd o valua h sla suu of a sys. h BC s aulaly usful fo suh as a of av fauls. Fgu 3-5 s a onual daga fo h bo ounng hod ald o ons and lns. By hangng h sz of a squa bo and ounng h nu nub of bos nssay o ov all h daa h laon of o s oband. o gnally Fgu A4-. A onual lo showng a bo-ounng hod ald o ln ndd ob a 3

4 and on dsbud daa b. By hangng h sz of h squa bo and ounng h nu nub L & usunos 999 A.5 Band-ld faal Oullon al. [ ] ald a ulfaal analyss o ons and fauls fo o k sals and ond ou ha dffn gos and salng laws hold fo dffn sal angs saad by boundas ha ola wll wh h hknss of lhologal uns ha onsu h onnnal us. L al. 993 oosd ha h dsbuon of h ahquak ns n and aound Chna ang fo sval k o sval housand k s no a s faal. h a wo haas sals whh dvdd h whol sal ang no h bands. Sly sakng h dsbuon of ahquak ns s no a faal. Bu sn whn ah band a ow law dsbuon s sablshd qu wll was hfo fnd as a band-ld faal. Band-ld faal whh s a sal as of non hoognous faal ulfaal s usd o hasz h sn of haas sals ha a band boundas. In ah band h asu ay b non hoognous o hoognous. Fo nsan n a lag sal ahquaks a onnad on h bounday of las and n ss zons havng a faal dnson aoaly qual o.. On h oh hand n a sal fo ns o hundds k w would s any luss o n oh wods swas dsbud along av faul zons wh a faal dnson lss han.. Whn an ndvdual lus s agnfd h ns a obsvd o b dsbud n a faul zon wh a hgh faal dnson. Fgu A5-. Gnalzd-olaon-ngal funons of h n dsbuon of ahquaks n Chna vsus dsan n doubl logah oodnas. h daa shows band-ld ulfaal suu wh h bands. h faal dnson fo ah band and fo q = 2 o 5 a asud by h las-squa fng and also sfd n h gh sd.l al

5 A.6 Sngl-lnk lus analyss and saal olaon lngh h on of al ahquak has bn oosd o odl ahquak oss as a al hnonon wh h lags o aasoh ahquak s onsdd as analogous o a al hnonon hanng a a sond-od has anson n analogy o olaon hnonon Yaasha & nooff 989; Son A. & Son D. 99. Und suh a onsdaon f h sys saally dsbud ahquaks aoahs a al on h saal olaon lngh haf abbvad as SCL s d o gow aodng o a ow law Bu & Walla 989 f k A.6- wh k s a osv onsan. h SCL of a s of onsuv vns an b sad usng sngl-lnk lus analyss Fohlh and Davs 99. Inally ah ndvdual hyon s lnkd wh s nas nghbo hyon o fo a s of luss. hn vy lus s lnkd wh s nas lus. hs oss s ad unl vns a onnd wh - lnks. Followng vous wok Zöll al. 2; yukn and Govabasa 25 h SCL s h dfnd as h dan of h dsan dsbuon of h - lnks. Wh h dsan bwn any wo luss s alulad basd on h go ns. A.7 EAS odlng I s known ha sall hangs n sha sss n a faul sys ansfd fo ss o ass faul sl lswh o any oh knd of loadng an lad o hangs n ssy Rasnbg & Sson 992; Sn 999; oda al. 22. In so snsv ass sss hang n h od of. ba an aus hang n ss avy ng al. 994 Cohan al. 24. Baus h ggng oss fo a gvn ahquak squn s ol and baus s dfful o sly dsb h ansf of sss n a faul sys of faal oly sasal aoahs suh as h d-y afshok squn EAS odl whh nooas h Oo law by assung ha ah ahquak has a agnud-dndn ably o gg s own Oo-law-y afshoks hav vd sgnfan anon Ogaa al. 23; Ogaa 25; Son & Son 999; Hls & Son 23. h EAS odl s an aoa ool fo sng h sgnfan of hangs n ss ans suh as h lav qusn ha ous o o a lag ahquak o lag afshok Ogaa h EAS odl s also hlful n dng no sss hangs Hls & Son 23 and ang a flud sgnal fo ssy daa Hanzl & Ogaa 25; L a al. 28. W ovd a suay of hs odl blow; a o dald aoun an b found n h d fns. h EAS odl nooas h Oo law by assung ha ah ahquak has a agnud-dndn ably o gg s own Oo-law-y afshoks Ogaa 992; Hls & Son 23. h oal 5

6 6 oun a s dsbd as h su of h a of all dng ahquaks and a onsan a ha sns h sabl Posson oss; n oh wods ando bakgound avy } { n A.7- wh n s h low-nd agnud u-off of h aalog and α s a onsan ha sfs h dg of agnud dndn. W also sd h Posson odl and a slf-ng odl ha loys an onnal day funon nsad of h Oo law L al. 2. } { a A.7-2 odl aas n Eq. A7- and A7-2 w sad by nzng h Akak nfoaon on AIC. As a sul EAS odls ovd h salls valu of AIC of all h odls ndang ha EAS odls ovd h bs f o h ss daa. h aa α s assud o ak h sa valus fo all vns hus snng gonal haass of ssy. yal valus of EAS aas oband fo vaous ahquak daa ss a =[.9.4] =[.3.3 day] α=[.2 3.] Guo & Ogaa 997. h aa s usful n haazng ahquak squns qualavly n laon o h lassfaon no ss ysogaa 992. Fo al ahquak swas hav α valus lss han and la and sl anshok-afshok avy n Jaan has α>2. As fo h EAS odl h lklhood funon s d L A-7-3 h log-lklhood funon s d LL ln A-7-4 h aa s usful n haazng ahquak squns qualavly n laon o h lassfaon no ss ys Ogaa 992. Fo al ahquak swas hav α valus lss han and la and sl anshok-afshok avy n Jaan has α>2. A.8 EAS odl wh -dndn fong a } { n A.8- In so ass suh as non-ndud ssy h fong a s songly dndn on non faos and hus ould no b ad as onsan L al. 23. Ohws no EAS aas suo low

7 valu of α ould b sad ason al. 23. Fo suh ass s qud o assu ha h fong a μ an vay wh whl h aas A α and a onsan. ason oosd a aally usful hod fo h saon of h fong a whh onsss of. Inally assung a onsan fong a usng h Gaa dsbuon of wang s bwn onsuv ahquaks. / f C A.8-2 H τ s h noalzd nvn ha s oband by ullyng h nvn wh h ahquak a λ. Basd on h assuon ha h ssy onsss of a Possonan bakgound avy and ggd afshoks followng h Oo law olhan 25 showd ha h valu /β s h faon of anshoks aong all ss vns n oh wods h fong a. 2. Coung h LE EAS aas θ α knowng λ. 3. Udang h sa of h fong a basd on hs aas. hs s fs qus h ouaon of h obably ω ha h h ahquak s a bakgound ahquak fo all. hs obably s dfnd as [Zhuang 22] A.8-3 h fong a s hn oband by soohng hs obabls ov b a b A.8-4 a wh a and b a h nds of h squn nub ahquaks whh dfn a wndow of n ahquaks nd on. h aoa soohng aa n an b dnd by nzng followng Akak Infoaon Con AIC AIC n AIC EAS 2 /2n A.8-5 wh s h nub of ahquaks n h daa s. I s onvnn o lo h hoal/obsvd uulav nub of vns as a funon of h ansfod.. h ngal of h oun a ov h nval S. h ss on h ansfod as s hus a Posson oss whh ovds a vsual onfaon of goodnss of f and allows anaon of hang ons. 7

8 8 A.9 Endd EAS odl Consd a sa- oun a lq y a h and loaon y as an nson of h EAS odl. Havng oad h h yal sa- nsons of h EAS odl Ogaa [998] vnually onds h followng odl ssd by q d y y S y y y ^ } { A.9- wh S s a dnsonal 22 osv dfn sy a and..^ ndas ansos of h vo. h squa baks hav h dnson of dg 2 wh dg osonds o h global dsan n laud. h quada fo whn h baks ndas ha h afshoks a saally dsbud wh llsodal onous. A. onaa analyss As a on oss n sa and agnud h obsvd dssd ssy a dnsy λ dfnd as h nub of ahquaks un and un volu a oson and s odld as } { A.- wh λ s h unfo bakgound a dnsy and λ s h ba onbuon of ahquak ha oud a { } snng h afshoks dly ausd by hs ahquak. By assung only ha h ggng oss s lna [.. h ba onbuons λ su u] and a an-fld sons o h oun of an ahquak an b sad ha dnds only on s agnud λ = λ asan and Lngln 28 oosd an algoh fo sang h ba knl. nowng an a o ba knl λ and λ h ggng wghs a alulas by w w A h udad ba as a hn oud as V w A A.-3 wh A s h s of as suh ha = ± δ = ± δ and = ± δ δ δ and δ a dszaon aas s h nub of ahquaks suh ha = ± δ and S δ s h sufa ovd by h dsk wh ad ± δ. h a oso bakgound a s w V A.-4

9 9 wh s h duaon of h ss onanng ahquaks and V s h sa volu 3D o sufa aa 2D analyzd. hs osonds o sakng all h afshoks followng anshoks of sla agnuds bu ounng an afshok aodng o s wgh w. hs wo ss a ad unl onvgn s ahd. h onvgn s quvaln o azng h logah lklhood of h odl h log-lklhood funon s d V d LL ln ln A.-5 I s hlful o doul h saal and h oal dndn of h knl no saal dnsy λ s nub of ggd ahquaks un volu and oal a λ nub of ggd ahquaks un s A.-6 By onsanng h saal dnsy o b noalzd d A s A.-7 wh A=2π 2D o 4π 2 3D h oal a λ s oband fo d A A.-8 h knl h a oso bakgound oal a s gvn by V W * A.-9 h bakgound oal a s gvn by W A.- asan D. and O. Lngln 28 Endng ahquaks' ah hough asadng Sn DOI.26/sn

10 A. Sasonaly and dal sons of ss avy Uls assoad wh sasonaly and dal sons of ss avy s now gong fo hoough anaon. A.2 Sss dffuson dvd fo ss avy Followng asan & Ban 999 a 4D olaon aoah was usd fo analyzng sss dffuson dvd fo ss avy. Fo a sa dsbud ons s of vns and ov a od of duaon w fsly alula h avag a of vns oung n a sa- wndow of sz L W W a a dsan and dlay af any vn 3 L W W [ ; ] [ ; L ] W W A.2- wh s / f s u/fals and s a afal fao. Fo onvnn w all any vn as an vn and all vns of < as 's af vns. wll hang wh f h daa nluds oally olad vns. wll hang dsan and fls h saal suu of h ss. Fo a saally ando ss s ooonal wh D- wh D s h saal dnson. W onsd h as ha h -sa on ss nluds boh ando and olad vns. Sn olaon dsan n s ld s d b onvgn wh. o ov h oally unolad vns fo w dfn a nw funon C as C A.2-2 a Wh a us b sld afully o b ga han h olaon dsan n. In addon a us b << o avod dg ffs. Sn h ss has no only ld duaon bu also ld sa a a s nd o b nodud o avod h ff of saal dg. ow C gvs h obably of af vns ggd by h an vn af a dlay a a dsan away fo hs an vn. h an dsan of C a gvn by C d R C d A.2-3 an b usd o dv sss dffusvy.