BU Macro BU Macro Fall 2008, Lecture 4

Transcription

1 Dynamic Programming BU Macro 2008 Lecure 4 1

2 Ouline 1. Cerainy opimizaion problem used o illusrae: a. Resricions on exogenous variables b. Value funcion c. Policy funcion d. The Bellman equaion and an associaed Lagrangian e. The envelope heorem f. The Euler equaion 2

3 Ouline Con d 2. Consumpion over ime 3. Adding uncerainy 4. Consumpion under uncerainy: seing up he problem. 3

4 1. A cerainy dynamic problem and he DP approach = 0 Maximize β uk (, x, c ) Subjec o k+ 1 k = g( k, x, c) and x = x ( ς ) ς = m( ) ς 1 4

5 Noable (relaive o Lecure 1) Immediae jump o infinie horizon problem, no essenial bu maches presenaion in LS chaper 2 (noe differences in noaion, hough). The exogenous (x) variable(s) are now funcions of a vecor of exogenous sae variables, which evolve according o a difference equaion (perhaps nonlinear, perhaps in a vecor). The laer is a key par of he vision of Richard Bellman, he invenor of DP: his experience in oher areas (such as difference equaions) led him o hink in erms of describing dynamics in erms of sae variables. 5

6 Recursive policies Suppose conrols are funcions of saes, c = π ( k, ς ) k + 1 = k + g ( k, x, c ) = k + g( k, x( ς ), π( k, ς)) Then, he sae vecor evolves according o a recursion k+ 1 k + g( k, x( ς), π( k, ς)) s+ 1 = M( s) = = ς+ 1 m( ς+ 1) ha can be used o generae fuure saes from given iniial condiions 6

7 Evaluaing he objecive Under any recursive policy, we can see ha all of he erms which ener in he objecive are a funcion of he iniial sae (s 0 ) so ha he objecive is also a funcion of he iniial sae β = 0 = 0 uk (, x, c) = β uk (, x( ς), π( k, x( ς))) 7

8 Noice he swich Given ha here is a funcion which describes he policy, he objecive is now a funcion of he sae vecor. We have made he change we are now hinking in erms of funcions raher han sequences. Bu we haven opimized ye! We could be calculaing he objecive wih a very bad policy. 8

9 Bellman s core idea Subdivide complicaed ineremporal problems ino many wo period problems, in which he rade-off is beween he presen now and laer. Specifically, he idea was o find he opimal conrol and sae now, aking as given ha laer behavior would iself be opimal. 9

10 The Principle of Opimaliy An opimal policy has he propery ha, whaever he sae and opimal firs decision may be, he remaining decisions consiue an opimal policy wih respec o he sae originaing from he firs decisions Bellman (1957, pg. 83) 10

11 Following he principle, The naural maximizaion problem is max{ uc (, k, x( ς )) + βv( k, ς )} c, k s.. k = k + g ( k, x, c ) ς = m( ς ) Where he righ hand side is he curren momenary objecive (u) plus he consequences (V) of for he discouned objecive of behaving opimally in he fuure. 11

12 Noing ha ime does no ener in an essenial way We someimes wrie his as (wih meaning nex period) max{ uckx (,, ( ς)) + βv( k', ς')} ck, ' s.. k' = k + g (, kx (),) ς c ς' = m( ς) So hen he Bellman equaion is wrien as Vk (, ς ) = max{ uckx (,,, ()) ς + βvk ( ', ς')} ck, ' s.. k' = k + g( k, x( ς), c) ς ' = m ( ς ) 12

13 Afer he maximizaion We know he opimal policy (which we will call π as above) and can calculae he associaed value, so ha here is now a Bellman equaion of he form Vk (, ς) = {((, uπ kς), kx, ()) ς + βvk ( + gkx (, ( ς), π( k, ς)), ς')} A funcional equaion is defined, colloquially, as an equaion whose unknowns are funcions. In our conex, he unknowns are he policy and value funcions. 13

14 How o do he opimizaion? You are free o choose, depending on he applicaion Someimes we ake he Euler roue, subsiuing in he consrain and maximizing direcly over k Oher imes we wan o use a Lagrange approach, puing a muliplier li on he consrain governing k 14

15 The associaed Lagrangian Takes he form L= { u( c, k, x( ς )) + βv( k', ς ')} + λ[ k+ g( k, x( ς ), c) k'] The opimal policy, sae evoluion and relaed muliplier are obained by maximizing wih respec o c,k k and minimizing wih respec o λ. Hence hese are all funcions of he sae variables. 15

16 For an opimum (off corners) We mus have L u(, c k, x()) ς g(, k x(),) ς c = + λ = 0 c c c L V( k', ς ') = λ+ β = 0 k' k' L = [ k + g( k, x( ς ), c) k'] = 0 λ And, a he values which solve hese equaions, V=L 16

17 The envelope heorem (Benvenise-Scheinkman) i Quesion: wha is he effec of an infiniessimal change in k on V? Answer: I is given by V u( c, k, x( ς )) g( k, x( ς ), c) = + λ k k k when we evaluae a he opimal policy and he associaed muliplier. As in LS, his may also be wrien a form which does no involve V u( c, k, x( ς )) V( k', ς ') g( k, x( ς), c) he muliplier, = + β k k k' k 17

18 Ouline of proof Nonrivial o show differeniabiliy of V Bu if we have his (as we will frequenly assume) hen V L u( c, k, x( ς )) c u( c, k, x( ς )) = = { + } k k c k k V ( k ', ς ') k ' + β k' k λ + [ k+ g ( k, x ( ς ), c ) k '] k g( kx, ( ς), c) g( kx, ( ς), c) c k' + λ [1 + ] + λ [ ] k k k k While his looks ugly, all erms involving behavior are muliplied by coefficiens ha are se o zero by he FOCs. 18

19 Ieraing on he Bellman Equaion Under specific condiions on he funcions u and g, he Bellman equaion has a unique, sricly concave (in k) soluion. Under hese condiions, i i can be calculaed l by considering he limi Vj+ 1 ( k, ς ) = max c, k' { u ( k, x( ς), c) + β Vj( k', ς ')} s.. k' = k+ g( k, x( ς ), c) These ieraions are inerpreable as calculaing he value funcions for a problem wih successively longer horizons. 19

20 2. Opimal consumpion over ime Simple case (no k,x in u) =0= 0 β uc ( ) Accumulaion of asses a = Ra [ + y c ] + 1 y + 1 = y + ρ ( y y ) And βr=1 (level consumpion) 20

21 Bellman Equaion V( a, y) = max { u( c) +βv( a', y')} ca, ' s.. a' = R[ a+ y c] y' y = ρ ( y y ) 21

22 Taking an Euler Roue 1 V( a, y) = max ca, '{ u( a+ y a') +βv( a', y')} R s.. y' y= ρ( y y) 1 1 V( a', y') EE :0 = uc ( a + y a ') +β R R a' V ( ay, ) 1 ET : = uc ( a + y a ') a R 22

23 Learning abou consumpion Updae ET and inser in EE o ge 1 1 uc( a+ y a') = uc( a' + y' a'') c= c' R R Suppose here is a linear policy funcion c= κ + θ ( y y ) + θ a y a c ' = κ + θ ( y ' y ) + θ a ' y = κ + θ ρ( y y) + θ R[ a+ y c] y a a = κ + θ ρ( y y) + θ R[ a+ y κ θ ( y y) θ a] y a y a 23

24 Requiring c=c, we have equaions ha resric undeermined d coefficiens i κ + θ ( y y ) + θ a y a = κ + θ ρ( y y) + θ R[ a+ ( y y) + y κ θ ( y y) θ a] y a y a κ = κ + θ Ry ( κ) κ = a θ = θ ρ+ θ R(1 θ ) θ = θ R/[1 ρ+ θ R] y y a y y a a R 1 θa = θar[1 θa] θa = ( ) R y θ y = θ a 1 ρ (1 ) R 24

25 Economic Rules Consume he normal level of income (y) Consume he ineres from asse sock, leaving he asse sock unchanged period o period (excep as noed nex) Consume based on he presen value of deviaions from normal income, reaing his as if i were anoher source of wealh; allow variaions in asse posiion on his basis. 25

26 Could have goen hese rules more direcly 1 j 1 j j ( ) c= a+ ( ) [ y+ ρ ( y y)] R R j= 0 j= ( ) 1 c = a + 1 y + y ρ y R R R R 11 1 c= y+ [ a+ ( y y)] R ρ 1 R 26

27 Quesions & Answers If we could have goen hem more easily, hen why do we need DP? Because here are many problems ha we canno solve so easily and DP is a procedure re for solving hem. Wha is he value funcion? V ( a, y ) = ( ( )) 1 β u a+ 1 y+ ρ y y 1 1 R R Easy o deermine in his case because c is consan over ime; V inheris properies of u Check: ake his v, inser in Bellman equaion as v, show opimal form c has specified form, show v has his form. 27

28 3. A Sochasic dynamic problem and he DP approach = 0 Maximize E { β u ( k, x, c )} ( k, ς ) 0 0 Subjec o k 1 k g( k, x, c ) + = and Markovian exogenous sae variables x = x( ς ) ϒ (, ς B ) = prob ( ς B ς = ς )

29 Markov examples Markov chains (LS, Chaper 1) Linear sae space sysems Nonlinear difference equaions wih iid shocks, ς = m( ς, e ) We won be more explici unil necessary. Key poin: saes are enough o compue expecaions. 29

30 Bellman Equaion Uncerainy case is minor modificaion of cerainy case Vk (, ς) = max{(, uckx, ()) ς + βevk ( ', ς') (, kς)} ck, ' s.. k' = k + g( k, x( ς), c) 30

31 Proceeding as above Lagrangian g L= {(, uckx, ()) ς + βevk ( ', ς ') (, k ς)} + λ[ k+ g( k, x( ς), c) k'] FOCs L u(, c k, x()) ς g(, k x(),) ς c = + λ = c c c L EV ( k', ς ') = λ + β = 0 k ' ς ' L = [ k + g ( k, x ( ς ), c ) k '] = 0 λ 0 ET is unchanged 31

32 Implicaions for opimal policies Funcions of saes and sae evoluion c = π ( k, ς ) k + 1 k = g ( k, x ( ς ), π ( k, ς )) λ = λ( k, ς ) Sae evoluion is now a larger Markov process. For example, s k+ 1 k + g ( k, x( ς), π( k, ς)) = ς = = + 1 m( ς, e+ 1) M( s, e )

33 Value Funcion Since c,k,x depend on saes, he value funcion also is V(s). I is he maximized RHS of he Bellman equaion. 33

34 4. Opimal consumpion wih flucuaing income: seing up a DP Simple case (no k,x in u) =0 E{ β u( c )} s Accumulaion of asses (don necessarily resric R) a+ 1 = Ra [ + y c] 0 Income process y( ς ) ς : Markov 34

35 One version of he Bellman equaion V ( a, ς ) = max {( u ( c ) + EV ( a ', ς ')} ca, ' 1 s..[ a + y ( ς ) c a'] = 0 R 35

36 FOCs and ET Make sure you can work hese ou following he recipe above, c: uc ( c) λ = 0 1 EV ( a ', ς ') a': λ + E = 0 R { a ' } 1 λ: [ a+ y( ς) c a'] = 0 R ET : EV ( a, ς ) = λ a 36

37 Implicaions for policies Opimal consumpion depends on (a) wealh; and (b) he variables ha are useful for forecasing fuure income. caς (, ) Bu solving for his funcion is no longer easy. Raionalizes SL s discussion of numerical mehods, a opic ha we will consider furher laer. 37

38 Implicaion for Value funcion Value funcion is objecive evaluaed a opimal consumpion policy, which is a funcion of a Markov process, so ha 0 ς0 = β π ς 0 ς0 = 0 Va (, ) E{ u( ( a, ))} ( a, ) Value funcion saisfies he Bellman funcional equaion. Va (, ς ) = max {(() uc ( + EVa ( ', ς')} ca, ' 1 s..[ a + y( ς) c a' = 0] R = ( u( π( a, ς)) + EV( Ra [ + y( ς) π( a, ς)], ς') ( a, ς) 38

39 Wha we ve covered in his lecure Inroducion o DP under cerainy Bellman Equaion Associaed Lagrangian g FOCs and he ET Seing up and solving cerainy consumpion problem DP wih exogenous variables ha are funcions of a Markov process (exogenous sae vecor) Seing up consumpion problem wih uncerain income 39

40 Wha s nex? Furher analysis of opimal consumpion Theory: Levhari/Srinvasan Theory: Sandmo Theory and Empirics: Hall 40