OUT-OF-MERIT GENERATION OF REGULATED COAL PLANTS IN ORGANIZED ENERGY MARKETS. Joseph Daniel, Senior Energy Analyst Union of Concerned Scientists

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1 OUT-OF-MERIT GENERATION OF REGULATED COAL PLANTS IN ORGANIZED ENERGY MARKETS Jseph Daniel, Senir Energy Analyst Unin f Cncerned Scientists

Mdule 1: Screening analysis, Methdlgy C p = C f + C v + C e Where (expressed in $/MWh) C p : marginal cst f prductin C f : fuel cst C v : variable O&M csts C e : emissins csts DS i = C i m C i p

2 Mdule 1: Screening analysis, Methdlgy C p = C f + C v + C e Where (expressed in $/MWh) C p : marginal cst f prductin C f : fuel cst C v : variable O&M csts C e : emissins csts DS i = C i m C i p Where DS i : Dark Spread, the prfit margin per unit utput in a given hur C i m : cst f market purchase in that hur, at that nde (lcatinal marginal price) C i p : prducitn cst in that hur Expected CF = # hurs DS i > 0 / # hurs (8,760) Actual CF = G i g Capacity 8,760

3 Mdule 1: Screening analysis, Results fr 2017 Vertical axis is actual value: Hrizntal axis is expected value: Wuld expect utcmes t fall n r near diagnal line (y=x) Predminantly rate regulated cal plants that perate abve expected value PJM 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 100% SPP MISO 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 100% ERCOT Merchant Generatrs 80% 60% 80% 60% Rate Regulated (incl. municipality and cps) 40% 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 40% 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

4 Mdule 2: Cash Flw Analysis, Methdlgy C p C p = C f + v + C = C C p f + = C C f v + C C e v + C e C p = C f + C v + C e C p = C f + C v + C e e Where Where (expressed (expressed in $/MWh) in $/MWh) Where (expressed in $/MWh) C p : Where C p : marginal (expressed cst f in prductin $/MWh) marginal Where cst (expressed f prductin in $/MWh) C p : marginal cst f prductin C f : fuel C f cst : Cfuel p : marginal cst cst f prductin C f : Cfuel p : marginal cst cst f prductin C v : variable C v : Cvariable f : fuel cst O&M csts C v : Cvariable f O&M : fuel csts O&M csts C e : emissins C e C: emissins v : variable csts O&M csts C e C: emissins v : csts variable csts O&M csts C e : emissins csts C e : emissins csts G n i = G g i G a G n n i = G g g G n i = G g G i G a n i G a n a g G n g G i = G g G i G a n a a g G G Where n i = G g i G a n Where a g G Where a Where Where G n G n i : net generatin i : net generatin in hur i G n in hur G i : net generatin in hur i G g i : Ggrss n in i G g i : net generatin in hur i i : grss generatin G n i : Ggrss n in hur in i : Gannual g i : net generatin in hur i G n a : annual net G n i net : grss generatin in hur i G g a : Gannual g generatin net a : Gannual n i : grss generatin in hur i G g a : annual grss G g grss : annual net generatin a : Gannual n generatin grss G g : annual net generatin G n i = G g a : annual grss generatin G g n i assumed fr units nt reprting G a : annual grss generatin a DS i = C i m C i p Where DS i : The prfit margin per unit utput in a given hur, Darkest Spread (mre rbust than Dark Spread) C i m : cst f market purchase in that hur, defined as the LMP C i p : prducitn cst in that hur β a = σ 8760 i=1 G n i DS i Where β a represent the annual ecnmic margin in ttal dllars

5 Weighted Average Margin ($/MWh) β Results: Net, 3-years Rate Regulated Merchant Generatrs $20 PJM $20 MISO $(20) $(20) $(40) $(60) The tw wrst units are merchant waste-cal cgeneratin units in PJM and extend belw graph. $(40) $(60) $20 SPP $20 ERCOT $(20) $(20) $(40) $(40) $(60) $(60) NOTE: Each bar represents ne cal unit, width f bars are nt prprtinal t size (capacity) f that unit. Ex: ERCOT had fewest units, s the width f the bars are greatest.

6 Cumulative mnthly grss lsses ($millins) β Results: Grss, 3-years Rate Regulated Merchant Generatrs $(50) $(100) $(150) $(200) $(250) $(300) $(350) $(400) PJM $(50) $(100) $(150) $(200) $(250) $(300) $(350) $(400) MISO $(50) $(100) $(150) $(200) $(250) $(300) $(350) $(400) SPP $(50) $(100) $(150) $(200) $(250) $(300) $(350) $(400) ERCOT NOTE: Each bar represents ne cal unit, width f bars are nt prprtinal t size (capacity) f that unit. Ex: ERCOT had fewest units, s the width f the bars are greatest.

7 Tp 15 Wrst Actrs 3-year Cumulative (all ver 100 millin ver 3 years) Mnthly Lsses RTO/ISO Elm Rad Generating Statin $ (425) Millin MISO Dlet Hills $ (407) Millin MISO/SPP Munt Carmel Cgeneratin $ (290) Millin PJM Pirkey $ (228) Millin SPP Nrtheastern Pwer Cgen Facility $ (192) Millin PJM Westwd Generating Statin $ (173) Millin PJM Jhn E. Ams $ (159) Millin PJM Whitewater Valley $ (143) Millin PJM Big Cajun 2 $ (137) Millin MISO Cnesville $ (136) Millin PJM Mntur $ (129) Millin PJM San Miguel $ (127) Millin ERCOT J. Sherman Cper $ (120) Millin PJM Siux $ (115) Millin MISO Indian River $ (115) Millin PJM

8 Results fr β (Mnthly Granularity) Represents nly the sum f all mnths where Beta was negative. PJM Regulated Merchant $259 Millin -$333 Millin $86 Millin -$335 Millin $354 Millin -$695 Millin Ttal -$699 Millin -$1,362 Millin MISO Regulated Merchant $681 Millin -$18 Millin $566 Millin -$13 Millin $270 Millin -$5 Millin Ttal -$1,518 Millin -$36 Millin SPP Regulated Merchant $258 Millin -$21 Millin $163 Millin -$7 Millin $443 Millin -$15 Millin Ttal -$865 Millin -$43 Millin ERCOT Regulated Merchant $36 Millin $n/a $39 Millin $n/a $79 Millin $n/a Ttal -$154 Millin $n/a Over $4.6 billin in market lsses ver three years NOTE: These numbers are grss, nt net; values dn t accunt fr impacts f merit rder n LMP and new clearing price f replacement energy.

9 Future Research Questins? Why are merchant units behaving this way? Are affiliate transactins distrting the market? Is guaranteed cst recvery distrting the market? Hw much f the ut-f-merit dispatch can be excused by system cnstraints? What is the impact n LMP (and ther generatrs)? Are plants that are refusing t turn ff creating cngestin? Negative LMPs? Shuld regulatrs (PUCs) disallw csts assciated with unecnmic dispatch?

10 Cnclusins and Implicatins Nt islated t SPP, all markets impacted Assumptin f ratinal actrs in rganized markets with rate-regulated assets may be flawed Calls int questin the extent f cnsumer benefits assciated with markets LMP nt a gd prxy fr avided csts

11 Definitins, Caveats, Assumptins Units excluded: Nt all EGU s reprt hurly data, thse units are mitted Primarily impacts units less than 25MW Only includes units are units whse primary fuel grup is listed as cal Includes waste cal, pet cke, lignite, bit., and sub bit. Units that have cnverted t dual fuel, r c-fire bimass, r list cal as secndary r tertiary fuel are excluded Units that retired prir t June 2018 were excluded Merchant wners dn t reprt fuel cst data t EIA, S&P data used as back fill Units that jined RTO during study perid nly included csts and revenues after jin date Units that dispatch int multiple RTOs were analyzed nly in primary RTO

12 Energy Infrmatin Agency Frm 860 Federal Energy Regulatry Cmmissin Frm 1 Envirnmental Prtectin Agency Air Markets Prgram Database S&P Glbal Market Intelligence Data Surces, and References Daniel, J. (2017): Backdr Subsidies fr Cal in the Suthwest Pwer Pl: Are Utilities in SPP Frcing Captive Custmers t Subsidize Unecnmic Cal and Simultaneusly Distrting the Market?, Sierra Club. Washingtn, D.C. Nelsn, W., Liu, S. (2018) Half f U.S. Cal Fleet n Shaky Ecnmic Fting: Cal Plant Operating Margins Natinwide. Blmberg New Energy Finance. New Yrk, NY. Blmberg New Energy Finance. (2017). Trends in US pwer, gas, and renewable ecnmics. DLA Energy Wrld Wide Energy Cnference. New Yrk, NY.

We respond to each of ORR s specific consultation questions in Annex A to this letter.

We respond to each of ORR s specific consultation questions in Annex A to this letter. Je Quill Office f Rail Regulatin One Kemble Street Lndn, WC2B 4AN Hannah Devesn Regulatry Refrm Specialist Netwrk Rail Kings Place, 90 Yrk Way Lndn, N1 9AG Email:hannah.devesn@netwrkrail.c.uk Telephne: