How Volcanism Impacts on Tropical Atlantic PPT. Luciana F. Prado Ilana Wainer
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1 How Volcanism Impacts on Tropical Atlantic PPT Luciana F. Prado Ilana Wainer
2 Two leading modes of Tropical Atlantic SST variability Equatorial Zonal Mode (zonal) ( Atlantic Mode Niño ~38% Meridional Mode ~25% (gradient/dipole mode)
3 Atlantic Equatorial Mode (AEM) Bjerknes feedback (delayed oscillator) mechanism Interannual mode of variability: tongueshaped spatial pattern in tropical Atlantic SST that peaks during JJA. JJA climatology: SST ( C) in colors and winds (m/s) in arrows (both from Dee et al., 2011), PPT (mm/month) in green lines (Adler et al. 2003). The AEM mechanisms is similar to ENSO [Bjerknes feedback]
4 South America PPT DJF JJA SACZ ITCZ Color: mean precipitation during season (mm3/mo); dashed lines: mean SLP (hpa). Data from Dee et al. (2011), Adler et al. (2003).
5 Data CESM LME (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2016 BAMS) Monthly anomalies ( C.E.) Indices: ATL3 index (Zebiak, 1993) τ X index (Keenlyside and Latif, 2007) SST averaged [3 N 3 S/20 W 0 ] τ X averaged [3 N 3 S; 40 W 20 W] Adapted from Keenlyside and Latif (2007)
6 Composites: 1. Select the years according to the region of the eruption (North, South, Tropical) after Stevenson et al., Volcanic events of interest: the year before (-1), the eruption year (0), and six years after the eruption (+1 to +6 years) 3. Seasonal analysis (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) Location Years Tropical 1258 (Samalas), 1284, 1809, 1815 (Tambora) Northern 1176, 1213, 1600, 1641, 1762 (Laki), 1835 Southern 1275, 1341, 1452 (Kuwae) fromstevenson et al. (2016)
7 SST response Intensification of the cold-tongue pattern during DJF (0 to +1) and MAM (+1) Tropical eruptions Intensification of the cold-tongue pattern during JJA (+1) and SON (+1) SH eruptions
8 ATL3 index Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) DJF MAM NH NH SH SH TROP TROP Greater impact of TROPICAL followed by SH volcanism, mainly during (+1) season Decrease in SST anomalies up to -1.2 C
9 ATL3 and τ x If the cold tongue cools, there is an intensification of the equatorial temperature gradient and a strengthening of the easterly trade winds ITCZ moves north DJF MAM NH NH SH SH TROP TROP
10 Z20 DJF NH MAM NH SH SH TROP TROP Greater impact of NH and TROPICAL volcanism during DJF, and of TROPICAL volcanism during MAM Decrease in depth anomalies up to 4 m
11 PPT response weakening of the SA monsoon weakening of the SA monsoon mm/3mo weakening of the ITCZ NH eruptions: weakening of the ITCZ during MAM (+1) System displaced North SH eruptions: weakening of the monsoon PPT during DJF (0 to +1), less PPT during MAM (+1) Tropical eruptions: weakening of the monsoon PPT during DJF (0 to +1), quadripole pattern during MAM (+1)
12 Correlation ATL3 and PPT ( C.E.) [95 % significance] SOUTH AMERICA: Positive correlation during DJF (Monsoon season) and SON. Negative correlation during MAM
13 ATL3 and PPT ( C.E.) by intensity Weak Intense Moderate Weak Intense Moderate Stronger correlation during SON ATL3 x PPT same pattern regardless of volcanism intensity
14 PPT from proxy (South America) Sirkis et al. (in preparation)
15 Conclusions part 1 Tropical eruptions: Intensification of cold-tongue pattern during DJF (0 to +1) and MAM (+1) and easterly trade winds. Cooling stronger easterlies ITCZ moves north less PPT SH eruptions Intensification of the cold-tongue pattern during JJA (+1) and SON (+1) ITCZ moves north less PPT SW radiation deficit on the surface : Weakens the evaporation ATL3 x PPT relationship is independent of volcanism intensity.
16 South-Atlantic LM mean ( ) How does the South Atlantic Ocean Respond to Volcanism? LME results (14 ensemble members, 10 full forcing + 4 volcanic only) Tropical + Southern eruptions (1258, 1275, 1284, 1341, 1452, 1809, 1815) Composites for DJF (after Stevenson et al. 2016)
17 DJF - Year = 0 DJF - Year = +1
18 Zonal avg time-series of SSS_anom in the South Atlantic (average between 60S-70S) Samalas Kuwae Tambora
19
20 cooling at sfce and warming below is consistent with previous results
21
22 TAUx TAUy
23 Explosive events trigger meridionally propagating signals in the South Atlantic that are surface-driven but are seen below the surface and are being investigated.
24
25 Vertical slices at 30W Yr 0 Yr+1 Yr+2
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