STACK/MERGE/SCOOP Jefferies LLC / November
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1 STACK/MERGE/SCOOP 1
2 PV-10 Breakeven Price Key U.S. Oil Plays Comparison of Selected Plays Core and Tier I PV-10 Breakeven Prices Spot $ Year Strip $52.83 # HZ Targets 12+ Midland Basin $20.00 $35.00 Core Acreage Tier I Acreage 16+ Delaware Basin $25.00 $ SCOOP / STACK $30.00 $ Eagle Ford $30.00 $ DJ Basin $40.00 $ Bakken $40.00 $60.00 Note: Source: EIA, Wall Street Research, Company filings, investor presentations and Jefferies estimates. Assumes crude oil to natural gas price ratio of 15:1. NYMEX pricing as of November 28,
3 Permian and SCOOP / STACK Have Had a Robust Recovery Recent rig activity has lagged the recovery and stabilization of oil prices Total US onshore rig count is up 47% to 593 from its bottom of 404 in May 2016 Resurgence in rig activity is primarily attributable to Permian and Mid-Con plays 228 rigs currently operating in the Permian Basin 77 rigs currently operating in the SCOOP / STACK US Onshore Rig Count vs. NYMEX Spot Price 2,000 $120 1,800 1,600 $100 1,400 $80 1,200 1,000 $ $ $ $- Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 US Onshore Rig Count NYMEX Spot Price LTM Rig Count by Basin $- Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Other Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Utica Williston Granite Wash DJ-Niobrara Barnett Permian SCOOP / STACK NYMEX Spot Price $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 Source: Baker Hughes Rig Count as of November 23,
4 Wells by formation and spud Year
5 Active Rigs Currently in the STACK Blaine, Kingfisher and Canadian Counties Continental is by far the most active driller pushing the play to the West with 14 active rigs Most STACK operators have concentrated their Meramec drilling in the Volatile Oil Core near the Kingfisher/Blaine county border Newfield is delineating the Meramec in central Kingfisher county and has just dropped back down to 5 rigs after ramping up to 7 rigs last year Marathon and Cimarex continue testing the Meramec as part of their ongoing drilling activities Operator Name Total Operator Name Total Continental 14 Comanche 2 Devon 8 Gastar 2 Newfield 5 Vitruvian 2 Oklahoma Energy 4 Ward 2 BP 3 Carrera 1 Cimarex 3 Chesapeake 1 Citizen 3 Council Oak 1 Marathon 3 Hinkle 1 Tapstone 3 LINN 1 5
6 STACK Stratigraphic Column and Type Log Meramec Silty, shale reservoir sourced from the Woodford Highly varying areal distribution Found at depths of 6,000 12,000 ft Normal to slightly overpressured Gross Meramec thickness of ~ ft Average porosity around 5% Average water saturation of 40% - entirely bound water Chester shale is regional seal OOIP estimates range from 13 to 30 MMBO/sec KINGFISHER CANADIAN Woodford Siliceous, source rock Organic rich Natural and induced fractures Hunton and Osage horizontal plays are emerging 6
7 STACK Activity Map 1 2 Carrera Energy Heath 3-1H Frac d Waiting on Results Carrera Energy Big Hunk 7-1H Tapstone Energy Howard H PayRock Energy Eve MH 3 Carrera Energy Mounds 16-1H Oklahoma Energy Brown MH Carrera Energy Robinson-Payday 16-1H IP30: 354 Boe/d Cimarex Peoples 1-29H IP30: 827 Boe/d Cimarex Peterson 1H-2821X IP24: 3,318 Boe/d 57% Oil Comanche Ward 21-1H Continental Andersons Half Flowing back Continental Boden XH IP24: 3,508 28% Oil Continental Compton XH IP30: 2,200 Boe/d 70% Oil Continental Foree XH IP30: 2,061 Boe/d 69% Oil Continental Frankie Jo XH IP24: 2,627 Boe/d 56% Oil Continental Ludwig XH IP30: 1,570 Boe/d Continental Madeline 1-9-4XH IP24: 3,538 Boe/d 71% Oil Continental Quintle 1R-10-3XH IP24: 2,192 Boe/d 74% Oil Continental Wintersole XH Spud Non-Op: 11.3% WI Newfield Scheffler 1H-9X IP30: 1,681 Boe/d Newfield Brown Farm 1H-8 Frac d Waiting on Results Devon Virginia Lee 10-19N-16W Devon Pump House 7 IP15: 2,200 Boe/d 1 mile laterals Devon Marmot 19/18 1XH IP24: 3,400 Boe/d 70% Oil Devon Blue Ox AH IP24: 4,000 Boe/d 70% Oil Council Oak Haigler 1-4H Spud Non-Op 1.7% WI Continental Yocum Current: 1,621 Boe/d 7
8 STACK Meramec Mississippian Meramec depocenter indicated by thickest Meramecian section (400+ ft) Mix of siliciclastic and carbonate prone shales. Average porosity ~7%. Silica content increases to the South At least two distinct flow units (Upper and Lower Meramec) Codevelopment possible when gross Meramec >300 ft Meramec thins abruptly and gives way to hundreds of feet of Osage carbonates Osage capped with a thin Meramecian shale known as the St. Genevieve STACK overpressure (0.6+ psi/ft) driven by hydrocarbon generation facilitates word class rates Volatile Oil to Black Oil roughly coincides with the Overpressure/ Normal pressure boundary Operators are still finding excellent returns outside of overpressure, owing to liquids and low D&C Ward 21-1H Virginia Lee 10-19N-1H Big Hunk 7-1H Campbell 1H-12 Brown Farm 1H-8 Heath 3-1H Haigler 1-4H Madeline 1-9-4XH Wintersole XH Foree XH Frankie Jo XH Peoples 1-29H Andersons Half XH Yocum XH Verona XH Pony Express 27 1H Skipper XH 8
9 Osagean Isopach Meramec and Osage total thickness in the NW Stack ranges from 925-1,500, approximately twice as thick as it is in the STACK Osage is generally comprised of tripolitic chert, dense chert, and limestone Osage is a fracture porosity play Still early innings with mixed results Key is to understand why and where Osage works Faulting is critical for creating secondary porosity, enhancing permeability, and opening hydrocarbon migration pathways Fractures can yield very high rates and recoveries 9
10 Woodford Thins to the North A A Kinderhook Upper Woodford Middle Woodford Lower Woodford Basal Woodford Hunton Two discrete landing zones in the Upper and Lower Woodford, separated by a ductile, TOC-rich middle Primary landing zone is the >50 thick Upper Woodford Upper Woodford thins significantly to the North Overall clay content appears to increase north of Cana Key questions are: how much does the middle Woodford contribute, and what thickness of the Brittle Upper Woodford is necessary for a successful well A A City of Watonga A A 10
11 Selected STACK Type Curve Summary Assumes NYMEX strip pricing as of November 11, 2016 Development Assumptions Unit Woodford Osage Meramec Type Curve Name NA Woodford Dry Vol Oil East Vol Oil West Lean Gas Wet Gas Mosage Thin Black Oil Core Black Oil Thin Vol Oil Light Oil Up Dip Oil EUR, Crude Oil MBbls EUR, Natural Gas MMcf 9, ,135 4,320 3,496 2,170 1,043 1,875 1,733 2, EUR, Wellhead MBoe 1, , EUR, Crude Oil MBbls EUR, Residue Gas MMcf 9, ,601 3,240 2,622 1, ,406 1,300 2, EUR, NGLs MBbls EUR, Processed MBoe 1, , , Differential & Processing Assumptions Differential, Crude Oil: 2017 $ / Bbl $ (3.00) $ (2.35) $ (2.35) $ (2.35) $ (2.35) $ (2.35) $ (2.35) $ (2.35) $ (2.35) $ (2.35) $ (2.35) Differential, Natural Gas: 2017 $ / Mcf $ - $ (1.25) $ (1.25) $ (1.25) $ (1.25) $ (1.25) $ (1.25) $ (1.25) $ (1.25) $ (1.25) $ (1.25) Differential, Natural Gas: 2017 % 90.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Differential, NGL % 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% Shrink Factor % 97.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 80.5% 80.5% NGL Yield Bbls / MMcf Operating Assumptions Fixed Opex / Well Month 1 $ / Well / M $ 7,500 $ 14,500 $ 14,500 $ 14,500 $ 14,500 $ 14,500 $ 14,500 $ 14,500 $ 14,500 $ 14,500 $ 14,500 Fixed Opex / Well Month 7+ $ / Well / M $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 Variable Opex, Crude Oil $ / Bbl $ 3.00 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Variable Opex, Natural Gas $ / Mcf $ 0.80 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Variable Opex, Water $ / Bbl $ - $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 $ 1.50 D&C Capex 2017 $M $ 6,500 $ 3,000 $ 4,500 $ 4,500 $ 4,500 $ 3,700 $ 4,000 $ 3,700 $ 4,000 $ 3,700 $ 3,000 Lateral Length Feet 7,500' 5,000' 5,000' 5,000' 5,000' 5,000' 5,000' 5,000' 5,000' 5,000' 5,000' Single Well: IRR % 62.5% 64.4% 30.7% 47.5% 49.1% 20.0% 33.7% 239.6% 44.1% 94.8% 85.9% 11
12 The SCOOP has High Momentum and Impactful Results in the Woodford Shale Based on 24-hour IP Rate The SCOOP is located towards the very south of the Anadarko Basin The SCOOP has recently seen high momentum and is the top liquidsproducing area in the Woodford Shale Operators are continuing to delineate the play extent, and are testing spacing and the potential for stacked laterals in the SCOOP Dawkins 1-20H 808 Boe/d IP24 58% liquids Wilson 1H-3 1,168 Boe/d IP24 22% oil Auld 1-10H 1,334 Boe/d IP24 58% liquids Arrington 1-23H 1,040 Boe/d IP24 32% oil Mashburn 1H-33 1,444 Boe/d IP24 33% oil Jo Ann 1H-18 1,231 Boe/d IP24 11% oil Singer XH 1,688 Boe/d IP30 33% oil Riddle 14-32H 825 Boe/d IP30 28% oil Healey 1-12H 670 Boe/d IP24 86% liquids Simms 1-32H 702 Boe/d IP24 80% liquids Mills 1-21H 626 Boe/d IP24 75% liquids Hansell 973 Boe/d IP24 90% oil Sparks 1-27H 775 Boe/d IP24 71% oil Carson 1-2H 1,524 Boe/d IP24 57% liquids Vesta Marie 1-29H 1,530 Boe/d IP24 61% liquids Dicksion 1-21H 1,590 Boe/d IP24 45% oil Sublette 1H-22 1,052 Boe/d IP24 56% oil Chalfant 1-7H 2,700 Boe/d IP MMcfe/d IP24 13% Oil Gregory 1H-28 1,688 Boe/d IP24 35% oil Tina 1H-26X 1,855 Boe/d IP24 47% oil Beckham 1-27H 856 Boe/d IP30 21% oil Poteet 1-17H 1,771 Boe/d IP24 55% liquids Campbell 1-36XH 1,063 Boe/d IP30 56% oil Branch Pad 1H-16: 1,245 Boe/d IP30 2H-16X: 1,510 Boe/d IP30 3H-16X: 1,579 Boe/d IP30 4H-16X: 1,557 Boe/d IP30 5H-16X: 1,610 Boe/d IP30 6H-16X: 1,577 Boe/d IP30 Casados 1H-21X 1,795 Boe/d IP30 19% oil Claudine XH 3,017 Boe/d IP MMcfe/d IP24 8% oil Vanarkel 1-15H 2,045 Boe/d IP24 44% oil Boles 1H-14X 1,466 Boe/d IP30 57% oil Hunter 1H-13X 1,420 Boe/d IP24 65% oil Floyd 1H-3X 1,466 Boe/d IP30 57% oil 12
13 SCOOP Stratigraphic Column and Type Log Stratigraphic Column and Type Log World-class source rock Oil-Prone Type II Kerogen Found at depths of 8,000 16,000 ft. and overpressured ( psi/ft.) Vitrinite Reflectance % Gross thickness of Woodford SCOOP ~ ft. Porosity ranges from 5 to 10% Resource base estimated at 150 to 200 BCF/section Recent economic success from horizontal drilling in the Springer Shale substantially increased the potential for the SCOOP to be a stacked play GODDARD M-1 GODDARD M-2 GODDARD M-3 CANEY SYCAMORE WOODFORD HUNTON 13
14 Springer Cross Section Operators have primarily targeted the M1 Springer in the South and the M2 in the North CLR has been active in the M1 Springer, while Vitruvian has been active in the M2 Springer Phase windows are separated by a north south fault Condensate to the West Oil to the East Springer Gas Condensate Wellhead EUR of 15.4 Bcfe A Langworthy 1-33H IP30: 976 Bbls/d Lyle Land 1-25H IP30: 1,090 Bbls/d A Prince 1-17X8H IP30: 699 Bbls/d Jared 1H-9H IP30: 1,587 Bbls/d A A Springer M1 Springer M2 Springer M3 Caney Sycamore Woodford Hunton 14
15 SCOOP Woodford Recent completion enhancements in the SCOOP have delivered some of the best shale gas results in the L48. Operators have adopted high rate slickwater completions to enhance fracture complexity Continental has tested spacing at 6, 8 and 10 wells/section Vitruvian s recent Anita Fowler, tested at 18.6 MMcf/d and 380 bbl/d Citizen s Governor James well delivered an IP-30 of 2,074 BOE/d (70% oil), extending the productive Woodford trend to the North Continental Density Trials Anita Fowler Governor James 15
16 SCOOP Sycamore Sycamore is basinal equivalent of Osage Porosity development more similar to that of a basinal shale Sycamore development is in it s early stages, with Citizen leading the charge Ryan Express 16
17 Selected SCOOP Type Curve Summary Assumes NYMEX strip pricing as of November 16, 2016 Development Assumptions Unit South Woodford Sycamore Springer Type Curve Name NA Lean Gas N Wet Gas North Cond. South Cond. S Wet Gas Volatile Oil Wet Gas Gas Cond. Oil EUR, Crude Oil MBbls EUR, Natural Gas MMcf 25,299 17,581 11,175 11,752 14,366 2,016 5,017 14,344 1,942 EUR, Wellhead MBoe 4,289 3,275 2,544 2,341 2, ,017 2,561 1,230 EUR, Crude Oil MBbls EUR, Residue Gas MMcf 22,769 15,823 10,058 10,577 12,929 1,815 4,515 13,627 1,845 EUR, NGLs MBbls EUR, Processed MBoe 4,753 3,861 3,251 3,144 2, ,109 2,944 1,282 Differential & Processing Assumptions Differential, Crude Oil: 2017 $ / Bbl $ (5.00) $ (5.00) $ (5.00) $ (5.00) $ (5.00) $ (5.00) $ (5.00) $ (5.00) $ (5.00) Differential, Natural Gas: 2017 $ / Mcf $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Differential, Natural Gas: 2017 % 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% Differential, NGL % 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% Shrink Factor % 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 95.0% 95.0% NGL Yield Bbls / MMcf Operating Assumptions Fixed Opex / Well Month 1 $ / Well / M $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 Fixed Opex / Well Month 7+ $ / Well / M $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 $ 7,500 Variable Opex, Crude Oil $ / Bbl $ 3.00 $ 3.00 $ 3.00 $ 3.00 $ 3.00 $ 3.00 $ 3.00 $ 3.00 $ 3.00 Variable Opex, Natural Gas $ / Mcf $ 0.50 $ 0.50 $ 0.50 $ 0.50 $ 0.50 $ 0.50 $ 0.50 $ 0.50 $ 0.50 Variable Opex, Water $ / Bbl $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - D&C Capex 2017 $M $ 9,500 $ 9,500 $ 9,500 $ 9,500 $ 9,500 $ 6,500 $ 6,500 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 Lateral Length Feet 7,500' 7,500' 7,500' 7,500' 7,500' 7,500' 7,500' 7,500' 7,500' Single Well: IRR % 110.0% 69.5% 70.8% 65.4% 47.5% 41.7% 17.8% 43.4% 31.5% 17
18 Merge Geologic Overview The Woodford is the primary Source rock engine that drives the entire Hydrocarbon system of the Anadarko Basin Stratigraphic Column Type Log The Woodford is prospective across the Merge, though slightly higher in VClay and thinner than in the SCOOP The Woodford in the Merge has been largely ignored and has not seen the benefit of modern completions Caney/Meramec Sycamore/Osage Woodford The Sycamore is the basinal equivalent of the Osage/Meramec System in the STACK Mississippian system grades from carbonate in the north to a more siliceous shale in the south Sycamore rock properties on par or even better than core Meramec In general, the Mississippian section of the Merge has higher Porosity than the STACK Type Log Hunton Osagian Isopach Note: From Jones IR Presentation Materials. 18
19 Recent Results in the Merge Play Sycamore / Woodford / Meramec Formations 1 Devon Wildcard H IP-30: 757 boe/d 75% oil 5 Newfield Peters 1H - 15X IP-30: 918 boe/d 80% oil 2 Cimarex Straka 1H-36X IP-30: 888 boe/d 55% oil Marathon Meyer W H IP-30: 670 boe/d 35% oil 3 Citizen Rosemary 1H-1-36 IP-30: 1,599 boe/d 70% oil Citizen Gov. James 1H - 32 IP-30: 2,074 boe/d 70% oil 4 Citizen Rosemary 2H-1-36 IP-30: 1,316 boe/d 75% oil Newfield Carole 1H-21X IP-30: 535 boe/d 80% oil Meramec Wells 8 Sycamore Wells Woodford Wells 19
20 Merge Type Curve Areas Jefferies Type Curve Areas were built starting with Vitrinite Reflectance data from the Woodford and then trued up to well head GOR data Legacy vertical well data was incorporated along with newer vintage wells; however, the data were not sufficient to warrant subdividing TC areas more granular than a Western area that is more gas prone and an Eastern are that is more Oil prone The Sycamore is largely a migrated system Given the proximity of the Sycamore to the underlying Woodford Source Rock, they are likely to have nearly identical hydrocarbon phases Oil Prone Area Woodford Sycamore Type Curve Unit Oil Gas Oil Gas Gas Prone Lateral (Feet) 7,500' 7,500' 7,500' 7,500' IP (Bbl/d, Mcf/d) 355 1,350 1,040 2,400 EUR (MBbl, MMcf) 634 1, ,528 Di (%) Df (%) IRR (%) b
21 Summary STACK continues to march towards the West. Likely to continue sing big STACK gas wells Further testing of the STACK Woodford with high proppant completion designs should yield material re-rating of play Encouraging results from the thin Meramec in NW STACK. Still very early in the NW STACK Osage. 3D Seismic could be a game changer Merge is the next hot area with favorable rock qualities, high EUR s and low D&C make for IRR s >100% Operators have been focused their SCOOP drilling Woodford to hold all rights Encouraging SCOOP Sycamore results could add a third bench to the SCOOP 21
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