Session 15A: Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future. Peter L. Ward US Geological Survey retired. AMS January 10, Effusive.

Transcription

1 15A.1: Throughout the Holocene, extensive basaltic lava flows that formed primarily in subaerial rift zones and covered hundreds of square kilometers of land were contemporaneous with short periods of major, rapid, global warming Session 15A: Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future Explosive Peter L. Ward US Geological Survey retired Effusive Pinatubo 1991 AMS January 10, 2019 Bárðarbunga 2014

2 Basaltic volcanism warmed the world out of the last ice age Bølling warming Pre-boreal warming White Et al ,000 to 9500 Zielinski et al. 1996

3 Basaltic volcanism warmed the world out of the last ice age Herðubreið is a tuya in NE Iceland Bølling warming Pre-boreal warming White Et al ,000 to 9500 Zielinski et al. 1996

4 Basaltic volcanism warmed the world out of the last ice age Cosmogenic 3 He exposure ages Herðubreið is a tuya in NE Iceland Bølling warming Pre-boreal warming Licciardi et al., 2007 White Et al of 13 best dated tuyas were active during the Bølling or Pre-boreal warmings 12,000 to 9500 Zielinski et al. 1996

5 Basaltic volcanism warmed the world out of the last ice age Cosmogenic 3 He exposure ages Herðubreið is a tuya in NE Iceland Bølling warming Pre-boreal warming It took 2500 years of major volcanism to warm the ocean out of the last ice age White Et al Licciardi et al., of 13 best dated tuyas were active during the Bølling or Pre-boreal warmings 12,000 to 9500 The heat content of the ocean is very, very large Zielinski et al. 1996

6 Eemian interglacial Air temperature White et al., 1997

7 The footprints of climate change: Erratic sequences of rapid warming followed by slow, incremental cooling over millennia Eemian interglacial Air temperature White et al., 1997

8 The footprints of climate change: Erratic sequences of rapid warming followed by slow, incremental cooling over millennia Eemian interglacial Air temperature Ocean temperature White et al., 1997 Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005

9 The footprints of climate change: Erratic sequences of rapid warming followed by slow, incremental cooling over millennia Eemian interglacial Air temperature What causes the sudden warming? Ocean temperature White et al., 1997 Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005

10 The footprints of climate change: Erratic sequences of rapid warming followed by slow, incremental cooling over millennia Eemian interglacial Air temperature What causes the sudden warming? Depletion of the ozone layer Ocean temperature White et al., 1997 Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005

11 Human-caused global warming Solomon, 1999 Staehelin et al., 1998 HadCRUT-4

12 Human-caused global warming Solomon, 1999 Staehelin et al., 1998 HadCRUT-4 Antarctic ozone hole discovered 1985

13 Human-caused global warming Solomon, 1999 Staehelin et al., 1998 HadCRUT-4 Montreal Protocol took effect January, 1989 Antarctic ozone hole discovered 1985

14 Human-caused global warming Solomon, 1999 Staehelin et al., 1998 HadCRUT-4 Montreal Protocol took effect January, 1989 Antarctic ozone hole discovered

15 Human-caused global warming Solomon, 1999 Staehelin et al., 1998 HadCRUT-4 Montreal Protocol took effect January, 1989 Antarctic ozone hole discovered

16 Human-caused global warming Solomon, 1999 Staehelin et al., 1998 HadCRUT-4 Montreal Protocol took effect January, 1989 Antarctic ozone hole discovered

17 Human-caused global warming Solomon, 1999 Staehelin et al., 1998 HadCRUT-4 Montreal Protocol took effect January, 1989 Antarctic ozone hole discovered Global warming hiatus

18 Solomon, 2009 Increasing ocean heat content Increasing CFCs Staehlin Et al., 1997 Levitus et al., 2012 Lower stratospheric temperature Randel, 2010; Thompson and Solomon, 2009 Annual average ozone at 47o north Ozone depleted by humans and by volcanic eruptions

19 Staehlin Et al., 1997 Solomon, 2009 Increasing ocean heat content Increasing CFCs 30-year increases in CFCs led to ozone depletion, led to decreasing lower stratospheric temperature and increasing ocean heat content Levitus et al., 2012 Randel, 2010; Thompson and Solomon, 2009 Lower stratospheric temperature Annual average ozone at 47o north Ozone depleted by humans and by volcanic eruptions

20 Staehlin Et al., 1997 Solomon, 2009 Increasing ocean heat content Increasing CFCs 30-year increases in CFCs led to ozone depletion, led to decreasing lower stratospheric temperature and increasing ocean heat content Levitus et al., 2012 Randel, 2010; Thompson and Solomon, 2009 Lower stratospheric temperature Annual average ozone at 47o north Ozone depleted by humans and by volcanic eruptions

21 Staehlin Et al., 1997 Solomon, 2009 Increasing ocean heat content Volcanic eruptions led to major ozone depletion for no more than a decade Increasing CFCs 30-year increases in CFCs led to ozone depletion, led to decreasing lower stratospheric temperature and increasing ocean heat content Levitus et al., 2012 Randel, 2010; Thompson and Solomon, 2009 Lower stratospheric temperature Annual average ozone at 47o north Ozone depleted by humans and by volcanic eruptions

22 Major explosive volcanic eruptions cause net cooling Major effusive flows of basaltic lava that cause net warming Pinatubo 1991 Bárðarbunga 2014

23 Major explosive volcanic eruptions cause net cooling Major effusive flows of basaltic lava that cause net warming Typical above subduction zones Pinatubo 1991 Bárðarbunga 2014

24 Major explosive volcanic eruptions cause net cooling Major effusive flows of basaltic lava that cause net warming Typical above subduction zones Forms aerosols in the lower stratosphere Pinatubo 1991 Bárðarbunga 2014

25 Major explosive volcanic eruptions cause net cooling Major effusive flows of basaltic lava that cause net warming Typical above subduction zones Forms aerosols in the lower stratosphere Pinatubo 1991 Bárðarbunga 2014 Pinatubo warmed parts of the NH 3.5 o C Dec 1991 to Feb 1992 Robock 2002

26 Major explosive volcanic eruptions cause net cooling Major effusive flows of basaltic lava that cause net warming Typical above subduction zones Forms aerosols in the lower stratosphere Pinatubo 1991 Bárðarbunga 2014 Pinatubo warmed parts of the NH 3.5 o C Dec 1991 to Feb 1992 Robock 2002 Gleckler et al., 2006 Krakatau (1883) cooled the ocean for more than 100 years

27 Major explosive volcanic eruptions cause net cooling Major effusive flows of basaltic lava that cause net warming Typical above subduction zones Forms aerosols in the lower stratosphere Pinatubo 1991 Bárðarbunga 2014 Pinatubo warmed parts of the NH 3.5 o C Dec 1991 to Feb 1992 Robock 2002 Gleckler et al., 2006 Gregory et al., 2006 Krakatau (1883) cooled the ocean for more than 100 years Multiple eruptions increment world into an ice age

28 Major explosive volcanic eruptions cause net cooling Typical above subduction zones Major effusive flows of basaltic lava that cause net warming Typical in subaerial rift zones Forms aerosols in the lower stratosphere Pinatubo 1991 Bárðarbunga 2014 Pinatubo warmed parts of the NH 3.5 o C Dec 1991 to Feb 1992 Robock 2002 Gleckler et al., 2006 Gregory et al., 2006 Krakatau (1883) cooled the ocean for more than 100 years Multiple eruptions increment world into an ice age

29 Major explosive volcanic eruptions cause net cooling Typical above subduction zones Forms aerosols in the lower stratosphere Pinatubo 1991 Bárðarbunga 2014 Pinatubo warmed parts of the NH 3.5 o C Dec 1991 to Feb 1992 Major effusive flows of basaltic lava that cause net warming Typical in subaerial rift zones Emit Cl & Br causing ozone depletion and rapid warming Robock 2002 Gleckler et al., 2006 Gregory et al., 2006 Krakatau (1883) cooled the ocean for more than 100 years Multiple eruptions increment world into an ice age

30 Major explosive volcanic eruptions cause net cooling Robock 2002 Gleckler et al., 2006 Typical above subduction zones Forms aerosols in the lower stratosphere Pinatubo 1991 Bárðarbunga 2014 Pinatubo warmed parts of the NH 3.5 o C Dec 1991 to Feb 1992 Krakatau (1883) cooled the ocean for more than 100 years Major effusive flows of basaltic lava that cause net warming Typical in subaerial rift zones Emit Cl & Br causing ozone depletion and rapid warming Climate effect is determined by the aerial extent, which depends on the duration of eruption Gregory et al., 2006 Multiple eruptions increment world into an ice age

31 Major explosive volcanic eruptions cause net cooling Robock 2002 Gleckler et al., 2006 Gregory et al., 2006 Typical above subduction zones Forms aerosols in the lower stratosphere Pinatubo 1991 Bárðarbunga 2014 Pinatubo warmed parts of the NH 3.5 o C Dec 1991 to Feb 1992 Krakatau (1883) cooled the ocean for more than 100 years Multiple eruptions increment world into an ice age Major effusive flows of basaltic lava that cause net warming Bárðarbunga: 2014 covered 85 km 2 in 6 months causing 2016 to be hottest year on record Typical in subaerial rift zones Emit Cl & Br causing ozone depletion and rapid warming Climate effect is determined by the aerial extent, which depends on the duration of eruption

32 Major explosive volcanic eruptions cause net cooling Robock 2002 Gleckler et al., 2006 Gregory et al., 2006 Typical above subduction zones Forms aerosols in the lower stratosphere Pinatubo 1991 Bárðarbunga 2014 Pinatubo warmed parts of the NH 3.5 o C Dec 1991 to Feb 1992 Krakatau (1883) cooled the ocean for more than 100 years Multiple eruptions increment world into an ice age Major effusive flows of basaltic lava that cause net warming Bárðarbunga: 2014 covered 85 km 2 in 6 months causing 2016 to be hottest year on record Typical in subaerial rift zones Emit Cl & Br causing ozone depletion and rapid warming Climate effect is determined by the aerial extent, which depends on the duration of eruption Siberian traps: 251 Ma covered 7 million km 2 for more than 100,000 years

33 Three of the largest flood basalts were contemporaneous with three of the largest mass extinctions Deccan Basalts Siberian Basalts 7,000,000 km 2 11,000,000 km 2 500,000 km 91% of contiguous US 2 Siberian Basalts 96% marine 70% terrestrial vertebrates Central Atlantic Magmatic Province Deccan Basalts

34 Three of the largest flood basalts were contemporaneous with three of the largest mass extinctions Deccan Basalts Siberian Basalts The end of the Paleozoic 7,000,000 km 2 11,000,000 km 2 500,000 km 91% of contiguous US 2 Siberian Basalts 96% marine 70% terrestrial vertebrates Central Atlantic Magmatic Province Deccan Basalts

35 Three of the largest flood basalts were contemporaneous with three of the largest mass extinctions Deccan Basalts Siberian Basalts The end of the Paleozoic The end of 7,000,000 km 2 the Triassic 91% of contiguous US 11,000,000 km 2 500,000 km 2 Siberian Basalts 96% marine 70% terrestrial vertebrates Central Atlantic Magmatic Province Deccan Basalts

36 Three of the largest flood basalts were contemporaneous with three of the largest mass extinctions Deccan Basalts Siberian Basalts The end of the Paleozoic The end of The end of 7,000,000 km 2 the Triassic the Mesozoic 91% of contiguous US 11,000,000 km 2 500,000 km 2 Siberian Basalts 96% marine 70% terrestrial vertebrates Central Atlantic Magmatic Province Deccan Basalts

37 Temperatures and volcanism throughout the Holocene km 2

38 Associated with end of time units Ages of mass extinctions Typically end geologic eras, periods, and epochs Ages of effusive flood basalts Courtillot and Renne 2003

39 Associated with end of time units Ages of mass extinctions Typically end geologic eras, periods, and epochs Ages of effusive flood basalts Courtillot and Renne 2003

40 Associated with end of time units Ages of mass extinctions Typically end geologic eras, periods, and epochs Ages of effusive flood basalts Courtillot and Renne 2003

41 Large Igneous Provinces punctuate the geologic time scale Pleistocene Columbia Deccan basalts Madagascar Siberian basalts Emeishan basalts Karoo Snowball Earth Guibei Umkondo Mackenzie Ethiopia Kerguelen Parana Jurassic ice age Kola-Dnieper Uatuma Karoo Hirnation CAMP Katian? PETM Kalkarindji Geological Society of America Time Scale Ages of LIPs from Ernst 2014

42 Large Igneous Provinces punctuate the geologic time scale Pleistocene Columbia Ethiopia Deccan basalts Madagascar Kerguelen Parana Jurassic ice age Siberian basalts Emeishan basalts Karoo Kola-Dnieper Snowball Earth Guibei Umkondo Mackenzie 17 largest out of >200 LIPS Uatuma Karoo Hirnation CAMP Katian? PETM Kalkarindji Geological Society of America Time Scale Ages of LIPs from Ernst 2014

43 Large Igneous Provinces punctuate the geologic time scale Pleistocene Columbia Ethiopia Deccan basalts Madagascar Kerguelen Parana Jurassic ice age Siberian basalts Emeishan basalts Karoo Kola-Dnieper Snowball Earth Guibei Umkondo Mackenzie 17 largest out of >200 LIPS Uatuma Karoo Hirnation CAMP Katian? PETM The balance of effusive and explosive volcanism due Kalkarindji to plate tectonics explains climate change in detail Geological Society of America Time Scale Ages of LIPs from Ernst 2014

44 Conclusions for this session on climate change: past, present, future

45 Conclusions for this session on climate change: past, present, future 1. Throughout geologic time, the footprints of climate change are highly erratic sequences of rapid warming within years followed by slow, incremental cooling over millennia.

46 Conclusions for this session on climate change: past, present, future 1. Throughout geologic time, the footprints of climate change are highly erratic sequences of rapid warming within years followed by slow, incremental cooling over millennia. 2. Rapid warming is contemporaneous with effusive, basaltic lava flows covering tens to millions of square kilometers observed to cause ozone depletion.

47 Conclusions for this session on climate change: past, present, future 1. Throughout geologic time, the footprints of climate change are highly erratic sequences of rapid warming within years followed by slow, incremental cooling over millennia. 2. Rapid warming is contemporaneous with effusive, basaltic lava flows covering tens to millions of square kilometers observed to cause ozone depletion. 3. Humans also caused warming from 1970 to 1998 by manufacturing CFC gases observed to deplete the ozone layer.

48 Conclusions for this session on climate change: past, present, future 1. Throughout geologic time, the footprints of climate change are highly erratic sequences of rapid warming within years followed by slow, incremental cooling over millennia. 2. Rapid warming is contemporaneous with effusive, basaltic lava flows covering tens to millions of square kilometers observed to cause ozone depletion. 3. Humans also caused warming from 1970 to 1998 by manufacturing CFC gases observed to deplete the ozone layer. 4. Slow, incremental cooling over millennia is contemporaneous with sequences of several major explosive eruptions per century that form aerosols in the lower stratosphere, reflecting and scattering sunlight.

49 Conclusions for this session on climate change: past, present, future 1. Throughout geologic time, the footprints of climate change are highly erratic sequences of rapid warming within years followed by slow, incremental cooling over millennia. 2. Rapid warming is contemporaneous with effusive, basaltic lava flows covering tens to millions of square kilometers observed to cause ozone depletion. 3. Humans also caused warming from 1970 to 1998 by manufacturing CFC gases observed to deplete the ozone layer. 4. Slow, incremental cooling over millennia is contemporaneous with sequences of several major explosive eruptions per century that form aerosols in the lower stratosphere, reflecting and scattering sunlight. 5. Observed climate change throughout Earth history is explained much more accurately and in much greater detail by changes in explosive versus effusive volcanism rather than changes in greenhouse-gas concentrations.

50 Conclusions for this session on climate change: past, present, future 1. Throughout geologic time, the footprints of climate change are highly erratic sequences of rapid warming within years followed by slow, incremental cooling over millennia. 2. Rapid warming is contemporaneous with effusive, basaltic lava flows covering tens to millions of square kilometers observed to cause ozone depletion. 3. Humans also caused warming from 1970 to 1998 by manufacturing CFC gases observed to deplete the ozone layer. 4. Slow, incremental cooling over millennia is contemporaneous with sequences of several major explosive eruptions per century that form aerosols in the lower stratosphere, reflecting and scattering sunlight. 5. Observed climate change throughout Earth history is explained much more accurately and in much greater detail by changes in explosive versus effusive volcanism rather than changes in greenhouse-gas concentrations. 6. MOST IMPORTANT: Substantial warming in the future is NOT anticipated unless there are very rare, major basaltic lava flows.

51 See also AMS 2019 poster 476: The most unexpected surprise in climate change WhyClimateChanges.com Physically-Impossible.com JustProveCO2.com