Cascadia Preparedness. Tsunami Road Show 2012

Transcription

1 Cascadia Preparedness Tsunami Road Show 2012

2 Why we re here talking about earthquakes and tsunamis.

3 Getting from here to there

4 What we ll be talking about Cascadia Subduction Zone March 11 Japanese earthquake and tsunami Preparing your family Preparing your community Preparing you

5 Know your Cascadia Subduction Zone 600 miles long, from northern California to British Columbia Capable of producing very large earthquakes (M9+) that impact a wide area Similar in size and impact to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake Can produce devastating tsunamis 10% chance of a mega-thrust earthquake in the next 30 years

6 Know your Cascadia Subduction Zone Ghost forest at Copalis River, WA Last Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake occurred in 1700 When will the next one occur? We just don t know Average recurrence: 240 years (south of Cape Blanco) years (entire length) 190-1,200 years between EQ We re in the Zone And it WILL happen again

7 What are the hazards? Surface fault rupture (Not common on land in Oregon) 2010 Canterbury, New Zealand 2009 Wenchuan, China

8 What are the hazards? Strong ground shaking 2010 Haiti earthquake 2011 Tohoku earthquake

9 What are the hazards? Coastal subsidence 2004 Sumatra Mainichi Shimbun, Reuters

10 Landslides What are the hazards? Landslides in Ferndale, WA 2010 Taiwan

11 Liquefaction What are the hazards? 1964 Alaska 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand

12 Tsunami What are the hazards? 2004 Indonesian tsunami 2011 Tohoku tsunami

13 Tsunami Local Caused by a subduction zone earthquake near the Oregon shore Distant Caused by a subduction zone earthquake far away from the Oregon shore

14 Distant Tsunami Arrives 4 + hours after the earthquake Lower damage and flooding than local tsunamis National Tsunami Warning System can warn you hrs

15 Local Tsunami Arrives minutes after the earthquake Much higher waves Much further inland penetration NOAA Tsunami Warning System ineffective Earthquake = Only Warning

16 Stages of a Tsunami Generation Propagation Inundation How are tsunamis created? How do they move through the ocean? What happens when they hit land?

17 Tsunami genesis

18 Tsunami propagation

19 Tsunami Inundation Mainichi Shimbun, Reuters

20 Tsunami Damage Yomiuri Shimbun, AFP/Getty Images

21 What you really need to know about a tsunami Three Things It is a series of waves Stay away for 24 hours Even small tsunamis can cause damage

22 March 11, 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake and Tsunami Seismic Intensity Map Locating Lost Family and Friends

23 Know your hazard Probability versus Possibility Planning assumptions led to inadequate mitigation (Probable) Response planning was based on recurrence of the1896 to Meiji Sanriku or 1960 Chile tsunamis. (Possible) 869 Jogan earthquake and tsunami Significantly larger, Geologic evidence for Magnitude 9 EQ/tsunami ignored Viewed as an outlier, a 1,000-year event - low probability. Planning scenario based on 100-year event.

24 Human impact 22,600 persons killed or missing nationwide 15,500 confirmed deaths 92.4% drowning 107,000 buildings collapsed, and another 111,000 partially collapsed BUT. 6.5 million people live within 200 miles of rupture zone

25 Instant Automated Earthquake Magnitude Too Small but Fit Expectations 1 st magnitude = 7.9 Underestimated tsunami 2 nd and 3rd magnitudes = 8.9, 9.0 EQ damage causes no updated tsunami warnings

26 Factors affecting survival of tsunami Physical factors geography and topography distance to high ground pre-disaster land use

27 Factors affecting survival of tsunami Human factors time of the event limited mobility care giving behavior past experience w. small tsunamis (always more frequent than big ones) instinct to protect property

28 Survival factors: Preparedness + Herd Instinct Regularly practiced drills Follow other people evacuating

29 Prepare your community

30 Recommendations Enhance evacuation routes Harden infrastructure Clear way finding night or day Practice, practice, practice Build vertical evacuation refuges where high ground is not available.

31 Embed tsunami information in ambient built environment Tsunami Height R. Wilson

32 Cascadia Planning Assumption Magnitude 9+ earthquake probable Three metropolitan cities in impact zone Portland Seattle Vancouver, B.C. Heavy urbanization along the I-5 corridor Approximately 9.5 million people live in the hazard zone in WA & OR

33 Japanese emergency response challenges. Extreme scale of the tsunami disaster Early reporting hampered by damage. Satellite telephone access limited. Highways/railways cut by landslides, tsunami. Marine access to Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures blocked 1 st day by tsunami action, later by damaged docks + floating debris. No fuel (loss of power and facility damage).

34 Responders as victims Lost political and response personnel, Emergency Facilities destroyed. Otsuchi Lost mayor, seven senior staff, and 31 other municipal employees in the tsunami. MinamisSanriku Emergency operations and tsunami warning center was destroyed. 10 staff members survived by clinging to antennas on the roof. MinamisSanriku Tsunami Warning Center

35 Recommendations: Ensure Critical Continuity Relocate critical facilities out of inundation zone Retrofit critical facilities Prohibit building new critical facilities in inundation zone (already the law in Oregon SB379) Construct critical facilities to meet the most robust standards

36 Emergency Shelter and Housing About 470,000 Japanese required shelter Local governments provides care and sheltering. National government only assists.

37 Challenges to sheltering in Japan Local government officials and facilities did not always survive. Pre-designated shelters destroyed. Food and water delayed up to three days. Sheltering - mix of planned and ad hoc

38 In-place sheltering Family or friends or own homes Local shelters (can be a barrier to finding folks). Lifelines (power, water, sewage, gas) lacking for weeks.

39 Recommendations Plan robust sheltering Bring the message home Personal prep Neighborhood prep Community prep

40 Japanese Recovery Two supplementary national budgets trillion (US $51.3 billion) 2 trillion Minami-sanriku Will take 10 years, with three 3-year phases lifeline restoration recovery needs and potential relocation of buildings redevelopment and economic development.

41 Recommendations Comprehensive resiliency planning-50 year plan Land use planning Hardened lifeline infrastructure Strengthen schools (seismic retrofit program)

42 Japanese Tsunami Marine Debris LOTS of media coverage lately Not very likely to have reached us by now Estimated to reach us 2013 The debris is no longer in a debris field. NOAA is coordinating the debris issue

43 Prepare your family

44 Assumptions Will be at home/work Will be able to get home/work Will know what to do Will have emergency plans/supplies

45 Prepare in Seven steps * 1- Identify Hazards * 2- Create a disaster plan * 3- Prepare disaster kits * 4- Identify and fix weaknesses * 5- Protect yourself during earthquake * 6- Evacuate if necessary * 7- Follow your earthquake plan

46 Prepare in Seven steps * 1- Identify Hazards * Start now by identifying items that may fall, topple, or slide. * Secure potentially hazardous and valuable items.

47 Secure furnishings

48 Prepare in Seven steps * 2- Create a disaster plan * Practice Drop, Cover and Hold on. * Plan on how to respond after an earthquake or tsunami * Plan how to communicate and recover * Practice, practice, practice!

49 But what can I do? Have a plan! Know what to do! Who ya gonna call? Where will my family be and how will I reach them? Children at school or activities Plan for pets and livestock Have an out-of-town emergency contact How are you going to contact your family if phone service is not available?

50 But what can I do? Have a plan! Know what to do! Where will I get medical help? Take first aid and CPR classes Plan for back-up if family needs life-saving medical equipment Have you taken first aid classes? What is in your home first aid kit?

51 But what can I do? Have a plan! Know what to do! Am I prepared to live without the essentials? Food Water Medicine Toilet paper/ Tooth brush Fill up the gas tank in your car frequently How much toilet paper do you have in your house right now?

52 But what can I do? Have a plan! Know what to do! How will I pay for things? Have cash on hand ATMs/Plastic cards will likely not work How much do you have on hand?

53 Prepare in Seven steps * 3- Prepare disaster kits * Personal/Office * Household * Car

54 But what can I do? Go-Kit minimum of 72 hours Car Office Home Have 3 weeks worth of: Food Water Medicine Anything else you deem a necessity What do you consider a necessity? (got a pet?)

55 Prepare in Seven steps * 4- Identify and fix weaknesses * Common building problems * Inadequate foundations * Unbraced cripple walls * Soft first stories * Unreinforced masonry

56 Prepare in Seven steps * 5- Protect yourself during earthquake * Drop, Cover and Hold on

57 Prepare in Seven steps * 6- Evacuate if necessary * Know if you are in the Zone * Do not wait for an official warning * Check for injuries * Check for damage

58 But what can I do? Have a plan! Know what to do! Do I live, work or visit in a tsunami hazard zone? Know your evacuation route and PRACTICE! Know where you will evacuate to. If you are in a safe area, stay there! There will be no official warning.

59 Prepare in Seven steps * 7- Follow your earthquake plan * Once safe, continue your disaster preparedness plan. * Stay away from the beach. * Be in communication * If you cannot stay in your home * Tell a neighbor and your out-of-state contact where you are going

60 Great Oregon ShakeOut

61 You can t prevent an Earthquake, but you can prepare for one Building a culture of prevention is not easy because the cost of prevention has to be paid in the present, while its benefits lie in the distant future. Moreover, the benefits are not tangible; they are the disasters that did not happen. (to paraphrase Kofi Annan) Althea.Rizzo@state.or.us