Climate Change Insights from the. Centuries

Transcription

1 Climate Change Insights from the Paleoclimate Record of Past Centuries Michael E. Mann Penn State University with contributions from: Caspar Ammann, Raymond Bradley, Elizabeth Crespin, Jeff Donnelly, Greg Falugevi, Fangxing Fan, Hugues Goosse, Malcolm Hughes, Klaus Keller, Scott Rutherford, Drew Shindell, Axel Timmermann, Jonathan Woodruff, Zhihua Zhang Yale Geology & Geophysics Alumni Conference New Haven, CT November 7, 2009

2 Global Surface Temperature Changes

3 Global Surface Temperature Changes Climate Proxy Data

4 Reconstructions of Past Climate Nature (1998) Climate Proxy Data

5 Surface Temperature Reconstructions Climate Change 2001: The g Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001

6 Surface Temperature Reconstructions

7 Surface Temperature Reconstructions

8 Surface Temperature Reconstructions Reviews of Geophysics (2004)

9 Surface Temperature Reconstructions Science (to appear 11/27/09)

10 Surface Temperature Reconstructions Regional Time Series

11 Applications: Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Model resolves ~50% annual variance in both calibration and split calibration/validation over statistical model historical record

12 Applications: Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Model resolves ~50% annual variance in both calibration and split calibration/validation over statistical model historical record

13 Applications: Atlantic Tropical Cyclones historical record 95% uncertainties ti 95% uncertainties sediments Statistical model

14 Surface Temperature Reconstructions Science (to appear 11/27/09)

15 Surface Temperature Reconstructions Science (to appear 11/27/09)

16 Surface Temperature Reconstructions

17 Sources of Uncertainty El Nino

18 How did Natural Forcings Influence influence ENSO and the Tropical Pacific During the Past Millennium? Combined response to Solar +Volcanic Forcing Ensemble mean Nino3 (100 realizations of CZ model) Palymra coral isotopes (standardized to have same mean and standard deviation as Nino3 composite series) 40 year smooth Mann, M.E., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., Clement, A., Volcanic and Solar Forcing of The Tropical Pacific Over the Past 1000 Years, Journal of Climate, 18, , 2005.

19 Model-Data Comparisons Science (to appear 11/27/09) Positive Phase of Northern Annual Mode

20 Paleoclimate Data Assimilation PROXIES MODEL Past Natural Arctic warming

21 Paleoclimate Data Assimilation PROXIES MODEL SAT Z(800mb) Past Natural Arctic warming

22 CONCLUSIONS Recent R t hemispheric-scale h i warmth anomalous in at least a millennial i l context; can only be explained by anthropogenic radiative forcing Prior to the 20 th century, warmth and cold was highly regionally variable Medieval warmth in high-latitude North Atlantic and parts of North America rivaled modern warmth Reconstructed La Nina-like pattern during Medieval times, and El Ninolike anomalies during the Little Ice Age, suggest a thermostat response response to natural radiative forcing Response of Northern Annular Mode/NAO to natural volcanic and solar radiative forcing appears to explain enhanced Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period temperature signal in regions such as Europe Combination of warm tropical Atlantic and La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific can explain periods of relatively high past Atlantic Hurricane activity

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24 How did Natural Forcings Influence influence ENSO and the Tropical Pacific During the Past Millennium? Little Ice Age wet in Kenya: El Nino-like conditions Combined response to Solar +Volcanic Forcing Coral isotope reconstruction of past El Nino variations simulation smoothed simulation result

25 How did Natural Forcings Influence influence ENSO and the Tropical Pacific During the Past Millennium? Cook et al, Science, 04 Little Ice Age wet in southwestern U.S.: El Nino-like conditions Combined response to Solar +Volcanic Forcing Coral isotope reconstruction of past El Nino variations simulation smoothed simulation result

26 How did Natural Forcings Influence influence ENSO and the Tropical Pacific During the Past Millennium? Cook et al, Science, 04 Medieval Warm Period dry in southwestern U.S.: La Nina-like conditions Combined response to Solar +Volcanic Forcing Coral isotope reconstruction of past El Nino variations simulation smoothed simulation result

27 Surface Temperature Reconstructions

28 Reconstructed Temperature Patterns Spatial Patterns Mann, M.E., Zhang Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, MK M.K., Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Falugevi, G., Ni, F., Global l Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science (in press).