Does a feeling of uncertainty promote intolerant political attitudes and behavior? A moderating role of personal value orientations
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- Roger Newton
- 5 years ago
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1 Does a feeling of uncertainty promote intolerant political attitudes and behavior? A moderating role of personal value orientations Jan Šerek, Vlastimil Havlík, Petra Vejvodová, & Zuzana Scott Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic ECPR General Conference, Prague, September 2016
2 Problem The rise of populist radical right parties in Europe What is populist radical right (PRR) and what are the reasons behind its success? Populism, nativism and authoritarianism Different approaches explaining the rise and voting for PRR but supplydependent X Our focus is on a breeding ground for the rise of PRR with specific attention dedicated to nativism (traditions, conservations, rule of law) and authoritarianism of PRR see e.g. Betz, Johnson 2004, Smith 2010, Grande et al. 2008, van der Brug et al. 2000) one step back explanation of attitudes behind the vote for PRR
3 Problem Meaning maintenance model (Proulx, 2012): Violations of committed beliefs produce compensatory affirmation of other beliefs Uncertainty-identity theory (Hogg, 2012; Hogg & Adelman, 2013): Uncertainty about something subjectively important produces greater identification with groups that provide clear norms regarding one s attitudes and behaviors (typically radical and extreme groups)
4 Hypotheses 1. People who feel greater uncertainty tend a. to confirm traditional and less tolerant attitudes b. to identify with political groups that promote these attitudes 2. This tendency is pronounced if uncertainty concerns values that are subjectivelly or culturally important
5 Data European Social Survey Round 5 (2010) Age > countries N = 45,789 46,664
6 Outcome variables Attitudes toward immigration Immigration bad or good for country's economy Country's cultural life undermined or enriched by immigrants Immigrants make country worse or better place to live Support for harsher sentences People who break the law much harsher sentences Support for traditional gender roles Women should be prepared to cut down on paid work for sake of family Men should have more right to job than women when jobs are scarce
7 Predictors Gender, age, years of education
8 Predictors Gender, age, years of education Values Conservation (security and safety, proper behavior, follow traditions) [6 items] Self-enhancement (get respect, be successful) [4 items]
9 Predictors Gender, age, years of education Values Conservation (security and safety, proper behavior, follow traditions) [6 items] Self-enhancement (get respect, be successful) [4 items] Sources of uncertainty (Dis)satisfaction with society (economy, government, health services) [5 items] Personal security (feeling safe when walking in local area after dark) [2 items]
10 Predictors Gender, age, years of education Values Conservation (security and safety, proper behavior, follow traditions) [6 items] Self-enhancement (get respect, be successful) [4 items] Sources of uncertainty (Dis)satisfaction with society (economy, government, health services) [5 items] Personal security (feeling safe when walking in local area after dark) [2 items] Personal lack of money (manage on lower household income) [3 items] Personal health [1 item]
11 Analysis Multilevel linear regression Individual (level 1) predictors Country (level 2) predictors (overall value orientation of the country) Level 1 interactions are the effects of uncertainty different based on person s value orientation? Level 2 interactions are the effects of uncertainty different based on country s value orientation?
12 Predicting (positive) attitudes toward immigration B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) 0.04(0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) 0.01 Age 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Education 0.09(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.16 Values conservation -0.41(0.05)* (0.05)* (0.05)* (0.05)* Values - self-enhancement -0.25(0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* Satisfaction with society 0.34(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.24 Personal unceratinty security -0.09(0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03)* Personal unceratinty money -0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Personal health 0.07(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.03 Level 2 Values conservation -1.17(1.11) -1.17(1.11) -0.81(1.14) Values - self-enhancement -1.24(0.49) -1.24(0.49) -1.80(0.44)* Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction 0.03(0.02) interactions Conservation X Security 0.02(0.03) Self-enhancement X Money 0.02(0.01) Self-enhancement X Health 0.02(0.02) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction -0.02(0.09) interactions Conservation X Security 0.22(0.17) Self-enhancement X Money -0.04(0.04) Self-enhancement X Health -0.07(0.08) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
13 Predicting (positive) attitudes toward immigration B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) 0.04(0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) 0.01 Age 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Education 0.09(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.16 Values conservation -0.41(0.05)* (0.05)* (0.05)* (0.05)* Values - self-enhancement -0.25(0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* Satisfaction with society 0.34(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.24 Personal unceratinty security -0.09(0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03)* Personal unceratinty money -0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Personal health 0.07(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.03 Level 2 Values conservation -1.17(1.11) -1.17(1.11) -0.81(1.14) Values - self-enhancement -1.24(0.49) -1.24(0.49) -1.80(0.44)* Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction 0.03(0.02) Lower education, more conservative values and lower satisfaction with society are associated with more negative attitudes toward immigraition interactions Conservation X Security 0.02(0.03) Self-enhancement X Money 0.02(0.01) Self-enhancement X Health 0.02(0.02) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction -0.02(0.09) interactions Conservation X Security 0.22(0.17) Self-enhancement X Money -0.04(0.04) Self-enhancement X Health -0.07(0.08) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
14 Predicting (positive) attitudes toward immigration B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) 0.04(0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) 0.01 Age 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Education 0.09(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.16 Values conservation -0.41(0.05)* (0.05)* (0.05)* (0.05)* Values - self-enhancement -0.25(0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* Satisfaction with society 0.34(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.24 Personal unceratinty security -0.09(0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03)* Personal unceratinty money -0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Personal health 0.07(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.03 Level 2 Values conservation -1.17(1.11) -1.17(1.11) -0.81(1.14) Values - self-enhancement -1.24(0.49) -1.24(0.49) -1.80(0.44)* Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction 0.03(0.02) interactions Conservation X Security 0.02(0.03) Self-enhancement X Money 0.02(0.01) Effects of uncertainty do not vary based on person s value orientation Self-enhancement X Health 0.02(0.02) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction -0.02(0.09) interactions Conservation X Security 0.22(0.17) Self-enhancement X Money -0.04(0.04) Self-enhancement X Health -0.07(0.08) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
15 Predicting (positive) attitudes toward immigration B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) 0.04(0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) 0.01 Age 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Education 0.09(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.16 Values conservation -0.41(0.05)* (0.05)* (0.05)* (0.05)* Values - self-enhancement -0.25(0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* Satisfaction with society 0.34(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.24 Personal unceratinty security -0.09(0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03)* Personal unceratinty money -0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Personal health 0.07(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.03 Level 2 Values conservation -1.17(1.11) -1.17(1.11) -0.81(1.14) Values - self-enhancement -1.24(0.49) -1.24(0.49) -1.80(0.44)* Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction 0.03(0.02) interactions Conservation X Security 0.02(0.03) Self-enhancement X Money 0.02(0.01) Self-enhancement X Health 0.02(0.02) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction -0.02(0.09) Effects of uncertainty do not vary based on country s value orientation interactions Conservation X Security 0.22(0.17) Self-enhancement X Money -0.04(0.04) Self-enhancement X Health -0.07(0.08) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
16 Predicting support for harsher sentences B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) 0.04(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.02 Age 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Education -0.02(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* Values conservation 0.2(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.13 Values - self-enhancement 0.04(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.03 Satisfaction with society -0.05(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* Personal unceratinty security 0.07(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.06 Personal unceratinty money 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Personal health 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.01 Level 2 Values conservation 1.05(0.22)* 1.05(0.22)* 1.03(0.23)* Values - self-enhancement -0.06(0.14) -0.06(0.14) -0.06(0.15) Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction -0.01(0.00) interactions Conservation X Security -0.02(0.02) Self-enhancement X Money 0.00(0.01) Self-enhancement X Health 0.03(0.01) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction 0.08(0.03) interactions Conservation X Security -0.33(0.05)* Self-enhancement X Money -0.04(0.01)* Self-enhancement X Health 0.05(0.04) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
17 Predicting support for harsher sentences B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) 0.04(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.02 Age 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Education -0.02(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* Values conservation 0.2(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.13 Values - self-enhancement 0.04(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.03 Satisfaction with society -0.05(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* Personal unceratinty security 0.07(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.06 Personal unceratinty money 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Personal health 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.01 Level 2 Values conservation 1.05(0.22)* 1.05(0.22)* 1.03(0.23)* Values - self-enhancement -0.06(0.14) -0.06(0.14) -0.06(0.15) Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction -0.01(0.00) Lower education and more conservative values are associated with a support for harsher sentences interactions Conservation X Security -0.02(0.02) Self-enhancement X Money 0.00(0.01) Self-enhancement X Health 0.03(0.01) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction 0.08(0.03) interactions Conservation X Security -0.33(0.05)* Self-enhancement X Money -0.04(0.01)* Self-enhancement X Health 0.05(0.04) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
18 Predicting support for harsher sentences B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) 0.04(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.02 Age 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Education -0.02(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* Values conservation 0.2(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.13 Values - self-enhancement 0.04(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.03 Satisfaction with society -0.05(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* Personal unceratinty security 0.07(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.06 Personal unceratinty money 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Personal health 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.01 Level 2 Values conservation 1.05(0.22)* 1.05(0.22)* 1.03(0.23)* Values - self-enhancement -0.06(0.14) -0.06(0.14) -0.06(0.15) Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction -0.01(0.00) People from more conservative countries support harsher sentences interactions Conservation X Security -0.02(0.02) Self-enhancement X Money 0.00(0.01) Self-enhancement X Health 0.03(0.01) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction 0.08(0.03) interactions Conservation X Security -0.33(0.05)* Self-enhancement X Money -0.04(0.01)* Self-enhancement X Health 0.05(0.04) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
19 Predicting support for harsher sentences B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) 0.04(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.02 Age 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Education -0.02(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* Values conservation 0.2(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.13 Values - self-enhancement 0.04(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.03 Satisfaction with society -0.05(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* Personal unceratinty security 0.07(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.06 Personal unceratinty money 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Personal health 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.01 Level 2 Values conservation 1.05(0.22)* 1.05(0.22)* 1.03(0.23)* Values - self-enhancement -0.06(0.14) -0.06(0.14) -0.06(0.15) Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction -0.01(0.00) interactions Conservation X Security -0.02(0.02) Self-enhancement X Money 0.00(0.01) Effects of uncertainty do not vary based on person s value orientation Self-enhancement X Health 0.03(0.01) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction 0.08(0.03) interactions Conservation X Security -0.33(0.05)* Self-enhancement X Money -0.04(0.01)* Self-enhancement X Health 0.05(0.04) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
20 Predicting support for harsher sentences B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) 0.04(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.02 Age 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Education -0.02(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* Values conservation 0.2(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.13 Values - self-enhancement 0.04(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.03 Satisfaction with society -0.05(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* Personal unceratinty security 0.07(0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* (0.01)* 0.06 Personal unceratinty money 0.00(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 Personal health 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.01 Level 2 Values conservation 1.05(0.22)* 1.05(0.22)* 1.03(0.23)* Values - self-enhancement -0.06(0.14) -0.06(0.14) -0.06(0.15) Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction -0.01(0.00) interactions Conservation X Security -0.02(0.02) Self-enhancement X Money 0.00(0.01) Self-enhancement X Health 0.03(0.01) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction 0.08(0.03) Effect of security-related uncertainty varies based on country s conservatism interactions Conservation X Security -0.33(0.05)* Self-enhancement X Money -0.04(0.01)* Self-enhancement X Health 0.05(0.04) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
21 Security-related uncertainty matters more in less conservative countries
22 Predicting support for traditional gender roles B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) -0.19(0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* Age 0.01(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* 0.09 Education -0.05(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* Values conservation 0.23(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.13 Values - self-enhancement 0.11(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.07 Satisfaction with society 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.02 Personal unceratinty security -0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Personal unceratinty money 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)* 0.03 Personal health 0.00(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.00 Level 2 Values conservation 1.34(0.43)* 1.34(0.43)* 1.54(0.36)* Values - self-enhancement 0.89(0.23)* 0.89(0.23)* 0.84(0.20)* Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction 0.01(0.01) interactions Conservation X Security 0.02(0.01) Self-enhancement X Money 0.01(0.00)* Self-enhancement X Health 0.00(0.01) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction -0.05(0.05) interactions Conservation X Security -0.22(0.06)* Self-enhancement X Money -0.05(0.02) Self-enhancement X Health 0.11(0.04) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
23 Predicting support for traditional gender roles B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) -0.19(0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* Age 0.01(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* 0.09 Education -0.05(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* Values conservation 0.23(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.13 Values - self-enhancement 0.11(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.07 Satisfaction with society 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.02 Personal unceratinty security -0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Personal unceratinty money 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)* 0.03 Personal health 0.00(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.00 Level 2 Values conservation 1.34(0.43)* 1.34(0.43)* 1.54(0.36)* Values - self-enhancement 0.89(0.23)* 0.89(0.23)* 0.84(0.20)* Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction 0.01(0.01) Lower education and more conservative values are associated with a support for traditional gender roles interactions Conservation X Security 0.02(0.01) Self-enhancement X Money 0.01(0.00)* Self-enhancement X Health 0.00(0.01) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction -0.05(0.05) interactions Conservation X Security -0.22(0.06)* Self-enhancement X Money -0.05(0.02) Self-enhancement X Health 0.11(0.04) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
24 Predicting support for traditional gender roles B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) -0.19(0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* Age 0.01(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* 0.09 Education -0.05(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* Values conservation 0.23(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.13 Values - self-enhancement 0.11(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.07 Satisfaction with society 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.02 Personal unceratinty security -0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Personal unceratinty money 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)* 0.03 Personal health 0.00(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.00 Level 2 Values conservation 1.34(0.43)* 1.34(0.43)* 1.54(0.36)* Values - self-enhancement 0.89(0.23)* 0.89(0.23)* 0.84(0.20)* Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction 0.01(0.01) People from more conservative and self-enhancement oriented countries support traditional gender roles interactions Conservation X Security 0.02(0.01) Self-enhancement X Money 0.01(0.00)* Self-enhancement X Health 0.00(0.01) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction -0.05(0.05) interactions Conservation X Security -0.22(0.06)* Self-enhancement X Money -0.05(0.02) Self-enhancement X Health 0.11(0.04) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
25 Predicting support for traditional gender roles B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) -0.19(0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* Age 0.01(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* 0.09 Education -0.05(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* Values conservation 0.23(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.13 Values - self-enhancement 0.11(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.07 Satisfaction with society 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.02 Personal unceratinty security -0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Personal unceratinty money 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)* 0.03 Personal health 0.00(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.00 Level 2 Values conservation 1.34(0.43)* 1.34(0.43)* 1.54(0.36)* Values - self-enhancement 0.89(0.23)* 0.89(0.23)* 0.84(0.20)* Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction 0.01(0.01) interactions Conservation X Security 0.02(0.01) Self-enhancement X Money 0.01(0.00)* Effects of uncertainty (almost) do not vary based on person s value orientation Self-enhancement X Health 0.00(0.01) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction -0.05(0.05) interactions Conservation X Security -0.22(0.06)* Self-enhancement X Money -0.05(0.02) Self-enhancement X Health 0.11(0.04) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
26 Predicting support for traditional gender roles B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta B (SE) Beta Level 1 Gender (Female) -0.19(0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* Age 0.01(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* 0.09 Education -0.05(0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* (0.00)* Values conservation 0.23(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.13 Values - self-enhancement 0.11(0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* (0.02)* 0.07 Satisfaction with society 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.02 Personal unceratinty security -0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Personal unceratinty money 0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)* 0.03 Personal health 0.00(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.00 Level 2 Values conservation 1.34(0.43)* 1.34(0.43)* 1.54(0.36)* Values - self-enhancement 0.89(0.23)* 0.89(0.23)* 0.84(0.20)* Level 1 Conservation X Satisfaction 0.01(0.01) interactions Conservation X Security 0.02(0.01) Self-enhancement X Money 0.01(0.00)* Self-enhancement X Health 0.00(0.01) Cross-level Conservation X Satisfaction -0.05(0.05) Effect of security-related uncertainty varies based on country s conservatism interactions Conservation X Security -0.22(0.06)* Self-enhancement X Money -0.05(0.02) Self-enhancement X Health 0.11(0.04) Unexplained variance L Unexplained variance L Deviance
27 Security-related uncertainty matters more in less conservative countries
28 Preliminary conclusions In general, our expectations were not confirmed the impact of uncertainty was rather small, no matter whether uncertainty concerned personally or culturally important values Specifically, conservative orientation (both at personal and cultural level) predicted greater inclination to traditional and less tolerant attitudes but it did not amplify the impact of uncertainty Paradoxically, individual feeling of insecurity mattered only in less conservative countries However, this analysis focused on attitudinal pre-dispositions, not identifications themselves
29 Data and analysis Switzerland (N = 730) country with a constantly high support for a PRR party Outcome: Feeling close to a PRR party (Swiss People s Party) (26%) vs feeling close to centrist parties (74%) Logistic regression
30 B (SE) OR B (SE) OR B (SE) OR B (SE) OR B (SE) OR Gender (Female) -0.26(0.19) (0.19) (0.19) (0.19) (0.19) 0.77 Age -0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.99 Education -0.21(0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* 0.81 Values conservation 0.80(0.19)* (0.19)* (0.19)* (0.19)* (0.19)* 2.24 Values - self-enhancement 0.51(0.15)* (0.15)* (0.15)* (0.15)* (0.15)* 1.67 Satisfaction with society -0.26(0.07)* (0.07)* (0.07)* (0.07)* (0.07)* 0.77 Personal unceratinty security -0.11(0.14) (0.14) (0.15) (0.14) (0.14) 0.89 Personal unceratinty money 0.10(0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) 1.10 Personal health 0.12(0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) 1.14 Conservation X Satisfaction -0.32(0.12)* 0.73 Conservation X Security 0.39(0.26) 1.47 Self-enhancement X Money -0.03(0.09) 0.97 Self-enhancement X Health -0.18(0.18) 0.83
31 B (SE) OR B (SE) OR B (SE) OR B (SE) OR B (SE) OR Gender (Female) -0.26(0.19) (0.19) (0.19) (0.19) (0.19) 0.77 Age -0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.99 Education -0.21(0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* 0.81 Values conservation 0.80(0.19)* (0.19)* (0.19)* (0.19)* (0.19)* 2.24 Values - self-enhancement 0.51(0.15)* (0.15)* (0.15)* (0.15)* (0.15)* 1.67 Satisfaction with society -0.26(0.07)* (0.07)* (0.07)* (0.07)* (0.07)* 0.77 Personal unceratinty security -0.11(0.14) (0.14) (0.15) (0.14) (0.14) 0.89 Personal unceratinty money 0.10(0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) 1.10 Personal health 0.12(0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) 1.14 Conservation X Satisfaction -0.32(0.12)* 0.73 Lower education, more conservative values, orientation on self-enhancement and lower satisfaction with society are associated with a greater likelihood of feeling close to a PRR party Conservation X Security 0.39(0.26) 1.47 Self-enhancement X Money -0.03(0.09) 0.97 Self-enhancement X Health -0.18(0.18) 0.83
32 B (SE) OR B (SE) OR B (SE) OR B (SE) OR B (SE) OR Gender (Female) -0.26(0.19) (0.19) (0.19) (0.19) (0.19) 0.77 Age -0.01(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.99 Effects of uncertainty (almost) do not vary based on person s value orientation except for the satisfaction with society Education -0.21(0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* (0.03)* 0.81 Values conservation 0.80(0.19)* (0.19)* (0.19)* (0.19)* (0.19)* 2.24 Values - self-enhancement 0.51(0.15)* (0.15)* (0.15)* (0.15)* (0.15)* 1.67 Satisfaction with society -0.26(0.07)* (0.07)* (0.07)* (0.07)* (0.07)* 0.77 Personal unceratinty security -0.11(0.14) (0.14) (0.15) (0.14) (0.14) 0.89 Personal unceratinty money 0.10(0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) 1.10 Personal health 0.12(0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) 1.14 Conservation X Satisfaction -0.32(0.12)* 0.73 Conservation X Security 0.39(0.26) 1.47 Self-enhancement X Money -0.03(0.09) 0.97 Self-enhancement X Health -0.18(0.18) 0.83
33 Dissatisfaction with society predicts feeling close to a PRR party only for people who endorse more conservative values
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