Housing Market and Mortgage Performance in Virginia
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1 QUARTERLY UPDATE Housing Market and Mortgage Performance in Virginia 4 th Quarter, 2015 Joseph Mengedoth Michael Stanley
2 Index, 1995:Q1=100 Figure 1 FHFA House Price Index: Virginia United States Blacksburg-Christianburg-Radford Harrisonburg Lynchburg Roanoke Washington, D.C. Virginia Charlottesville Kingsport-Bristol Richmond Virginia Beach-Norfolk Winchester Index, 1995:Q1= Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (2015:Q4)/Haver Analytics Figure 2 Mortgage Distribution: Virginia 2a: Mortgages Outstanding 2b: Foreclosure Inventory Subprime 5.2% FHA & VA 24.9% Subprime 26.3% FHA & VA 38.9% Prime 69.9% Prime 34.5% Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2015:Q4)/Haver Analytics. ages may not sum to 100 due to rounding. 1
3 Figure 3 age of Owner-Occupied Loans in Foreclosure or REO 1 : Virginia Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. Figure 4 age of Owner-Occupied Loans with 90+ Day Delinquency: Virginia Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. 1 Real Estate Owned (REO) properties are in the possession of the lender due to foreclosure or forfeiture. 2
4 Figure 5 age of Owner-Occupied Prime Loans in Foreclosure or REO 2 : Virginia Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. Figure 6 age of Owner-Occupied Prime Loans with 90+ Day Delinquency: Virginia Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. 2 Real Estate Owned (REO) properties are in the possession of the lender due to foreclosure or forfeiture. 3
5 Figure 7 age of Owner-Occupied Subprime Loans in Foreclosure or REO: Virginia Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. Figure 8 age of Owner-Occupied Subprime Loans with 90+ Day Delinquency: Virginia Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or no data available. 4
6 Figure 9 age of Owner-Occupied Mortgages with Subprime Loans: Virginia Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Uncategorized zip codes have fewer than 100 total loans or have no data available. Figure 10 Unemployment Rate: Virginia Notes: Unemployment Rate in December 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 5
7 Table 1 Foreclosure Rates by Mortgage Type: Virginia Virginia United States in National in Loan Type Foreclosure Rank Foreclosure Total Prime Total Prime Fixed-Rate Prime Adjustable-Rate Subprime Total Subprime Fixed-Rate Subprime Adjustable-Rate Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2015:Q4)/Haver Analytics Table 2 Mortgage Delinquency Rates: Fifth District 90 + National in National Geographic Area Days Past Due Rank Forclosure Rank District of Columbia Maryland North Carolina South Carolina Virginia West Virginia Fifth District United States Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2015:Q4)/Haver Analytics Table 3 Prime Mortgage Delinquency Rates: Fifth District 90 + National in National Geographic Area Days Past Due Rank Forclosure Rank District of Columbia Maryland North Carolina South Carolina Virginia West Virginia Fifth District United States Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2015:Q4)/Haver Analytics 6
8 Table 4 Subprime Share of All Loans: Fifth District National Geographic Area Subprime Rank District of Columbia Maryland North Carolina South Carolina Virginia West Virginia Fifth District United States Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2015:Q4)/Haver Analytics Table 5 Subprime Mortgage Delinquency Rates: Fifth District 90 + National in National Geographic Area Days Past Due Rank Forclosure Rank District of Columbia Maryland North Carolina South Carolina Virginia West Virginia Fifth District United States Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (2015:Q4)/Haver Analytics 7
9 Table 6 General Housing Statistics: Virginia Housing Units of Owner-Occupied Owner-Occupied Mortgages With: With a Prime Subprime Adjustable Interest Geographic Area Total Vacant Occupied Total Mortgage Loan Loan Rate Only Blacksburg 70,550 6,757 63,793 37,735 23, Charlottesville 89,134 10,574 78,560 50,889 35, Danville 53,745 8,731 45,014 30,292 17, Harrisonburg 51,104 5,939 45,165 27,756 17, Kingsport-Bristol Lynchburg 112,515 12,913 99,602 70,942 46, Richmond 531,648 43, , , , Roanoke 144,987 16, ,454 89,832 60, Virginia Beach-Norfolk 671,844 52, , , , Washington, D.C. Entire MSA 2,213, ,022 2,074,730 1,333,662 1,126, Virginia Portion 1,012,030 51, , , , Winchester 56,906 7,840 49,066 35,256 24, Virginia 3,364, ,881 3,056,058 2,055,186 1,534, Fifth District 13,387,600 1,598,257 11,789,343 7,930,734 5,632, United States 131,704,730 14,988, ,716,292 75,986,074 51,208,208* Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. Source: Housing units are reported in the 2010 Census. Mortgage estimates are Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond calculations using data from McDash Analytics (December 2015). Definitions of the metropolitan areas are provided later in the document. *The figure for owner-occupied units with a mortgage at the national level is calculated by summing the totals for the states. 8
10 Table 7 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics: Virginia Geographic Area 90+ Days Past Due in Foreclosure 90+ Days Past Due in Foreclosure Blacksburg Charlottesville Danville Harrisonburg Bristol Lynchburg Richmond Roanoke Virginia Beach-Norfolk Washington, D.C.* Winchester Virginia Fifth District United States *Only the Virginia portion of these MSAs is included here Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. Areas with fewer than 100 total loans receive an N/A 10 Figure 11 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics: Virginia Days Past Due Foreclosure /14 02/15 04/15 06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. 0 9
11 Table 8 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics: Virginia Geographic Area 90+ Days Past Due in Foreclosure 90+ Days Past Due in Foreclosure Blacksburg Charlottesville Danville Harrisonburg Bristol Lynchburg Richmond Roanoke Virginia Beach-Norfolk Washington, D.C.* Winchester Virginia Fifth District United States *Only the Virginia portion of these MSAs is included here Figure 12 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics: Virginia 90+ Days Past Due Foreclosure /14 02/15 04/15 06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans
12 Table 9 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics: Virginia Geographic Area 90+ Days Past Due in Foreclosure 90+ Days Past Due in Foreclosure Blacksburg Charlottesville Danville Harrisonburg Bristol Lynchburg Richmond Roanoke Virginia Beach-Norfolk Washington, D.C.* Winchester Virginia Fifth District United States *Only the Virginia portion of these MSAs is included here 30 Figure 13 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics: Virginia Days Past Due Foreclosure /14 02/15 04/15 06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans. 0 11
13 Table 10 Owner-Occupied Interest Only Loan Statistics: Virginia Geographic Area 90+ Days Past Due in Foreclosure 90+ Days Past Due in Foreclosure Blacksburg Charlottesville Danville Harrisonburg Bristol Lynchburg Richmond Roanoke Virginia Beach-Norfolk Washington, D.C.* Winchester Virginia Fifth District United States *Only the Virginia portion of these MSAs is included here Figure 14 Owner-Occupied Interest Only Loan Statistics: Virginia 90+ Days Past Due Foreclosure /14 02/15 04/15 06/15 08/15 10/15 12/15 Notes: FHA and VA loans as well as interest only loans are included in the count of prime loans
14 Table 11 Unemployment Rates: Virginia age Point Geographic Area Unemployment Rate Change from December 2014 Blacksburg Charlottesville Danville Harrisonburg Kingsport-Bristol Lynchburg Richmond Roanoke Virginia Beach-Norfolk Washington, D.C Winchester Virginia Fifth District Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics (December 2015) 13
15 Table 12 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics Richmond MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Foreclosure Days Past Due Foreclosure Geographic Area Amelia County Caroline County Charles City County Chesterfield County Colonial Heights City Cumberland County Dinwiddie County Goochland County Hanover County Henrico County Hopewell City King and Queen County King William County Louisa County New Kent County Petersburg City Powhatan County Prince George County Richmond City Sussex County
16 Table 13 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Foreclosure Days Past Due Foreclosure Geographic Area Chesapeake City Gloucester County Hampton City Isle of Wight County James City County Mathews County Newport News City Norfolk City Poquoson City Portsmouth City Surry County Virginia Beach City York County Table 14 Owner-Occupied Loan Statistics Washington, D.C. MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Foreclosure Days Past Due Foreclosure Geographic Area Alexandria City Arlington County Clarke County Fairfax City Fairfax County Falls Church City Fauquier County Fredericksburg City Loudoun County Manassas City Prince William County Spotsylvania County Stafford County Warren County
17 Table 15 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics Richmond MSA 90+ in 90+ in Geographic Area Days Past Due Foreclosure Days Past Due Foreclosure Amelia County Caroline County Charles City County Chesterfield County Colonial Heights City Cumberland County Dinwiddie County Goochland County Hanover County Henrico County Hopewell City King and Queen County King William County Louisa County New Kent County Petersburg City Powhatan County Prince George County Richmond City Sussex County
18 Table 16 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA 90+ in 90+ in Geographic Area Days Past Due Foreclosure Days Past Due Foreclosure Chesapeake City Gloucester County Hampton City Isle of Wight County James City County Mathews County Newport News City Norfolk City Poquoson City Portsmouth City Surry County Virginia Beach City York County Table 17 Owner-Occupied Prime Loan Statistics Washington, D.C. MSA 90+ in 90+ in Geographic Area Days Past Due Foreclosure Days Past Due Foreclosure Alexandria City Arlington County Clarke County Fairfax City Fairfax County Falls Church City Fauquier County Fredericksburg City Loudoun County Manassas City Prince William County Spotsylvania County Stafford County Warren County
19 Table 18 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics Richmond MSA 90+ in 90+ in Geographic Area Days Past Due Foreclosure Days Past Due Foreclosure Amelia County Caroline County Charles City County Chesterfield County Colonial Heights City Cumberland County Dinwiddie County Goochland County Hanover County Henrico County Hopewell City King and Queen County King William County Louisa County New Kent County Petersburg City Powhatan County Prince George County Richmond City Sussex County
20 Table 19 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA 90+ in 90+ in Geographic Area Days Past Due Foreclosure Days Past Due Foreclosure Chesapeake City Gloucester County Hampton City Isle of Wight County James City County Mathews County Newport News City Norfolk City Poquoson City Portsmouth City Surry County Virginia Beach City York County Table 20 Owner-Occupied Subprime Loan Statistics Washington, D.C. MSA 90+ in 90+ in Geographic Area Days Past Due Foreclosure Days Past Due Foreclosure Alexandria City Arlington County Clarke County Fairfax City Fairfax County Falls Church City Fauquier County Fredericksburg City Loudoun County Manassas City Prince William County Spotsylvania County Stafford County Warren County
21 Table 21 Owner-Occupied Interest Only Loan Statistics Richmond MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Foreclosure Days Past Due Foreclosure Geographic Area Amelia County Caroline County Charles City County Chesterfield County Colonial Heights City Cumberland County Dinwiddie County Goochland County Hanover County Henrico County Hopewell City King and Queen County King William County Louisa County New Kent County Petersburg City Powhatan County Prince George County Richmond City Sussex County
22 Table 22 Owner-Occupied Interest Only Loan Statistics Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Foreclosure Days Past Due Foreclosure Geographic Area Chesapeake City Gloucester County Hampton City Isle of Wight County James City County Mathews County Newport News City Norfolk City Poquoson City Portsmouth City Surry County Virginia Beach City York County Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Areas with fewer than 100 total loans receive an N/A. Table 23 Owner-Occupied Interest Only Loan Statistics Washington, D.C. MSA 90+ in 90+ in Days Past Due Foreclosure Days Past Due Foreclosure Geographic Area Alexandria City Arlington County Clarke County Fairfax City Fairfax County Falls Church City Fauquier County Fredericksburg City Loudoun County Manassas City Prince William County Spotsylvania County Stafford County Warren County Notes: FHA and VA loans are included in the count of prime loans. Areas with fewer than 100 total loans receive an N/A. 21
23 MSA Definitions 1. Blacksburg MSA Giles County, Montgomery County, Pulaski County, Radford city 2. Charlottesville MSA Albemarle County, Fluvanna County, Greene County, Nelson County, Charlottesville city 3. Danville MSA - Pittsylvania County, Danville city 4. Harrisonburg MSA - Rockingham County, Harrisonburg city 5. Kingsport-Bristol MSA - Hawkins County, TN; Sullivan County, TN; Scott County, VA; Washington County, VA; Bristol city, VA (Virginia Portion includes only VA counties). 6. Lynchburg MSA - Amherst County, Appomattox County, Bedford County, Campbell County, Bedford city, Lynchburg city 7. Richmond MSA - Amelia County, Caroline County, Charles City County, Chesterfield County, Cumberland County, Dinwiddie County, Goochland County, Hanover County, Henrico County, King and Queen County, King William County, Louisa County, New Kent County, Powhatan County, Prince George County, Sussex County, Colonial Heights city, Hopewell city, Petersburg city, Richmond city 8. Roanoke MSA - Botetourt County, Craig County, Franklin County, Roanoke County, Roanoke city, Salem city 9. Virginia Beach-Norfolk MSA - Currituck County, NC; Gloucester County, VA; Isle of Wight County, VA; James City County, VA; Mathews County, VA; Surry County, VA; York County, VA; Chesapeake city, VA; Hampton city, VA; Newport News city, VA; Norfolk city, VA; Poquoson city, VA; Portsmouth city, VA; Suffolk city, VA; Virginia Beach city, VA; Williamsburg city, VA 10. Washington, D.C. MSA - District of Columbia, DC; Calvert County, MD; Charles County, MD; Prince George's County, MD; Arlington County, VA; Clarke County, VA; Fairfax County, VA; Fauquier County, VA; Loudoun County, VA; Prince William County, VA; Spotsylvania County, VA; Stafford County, VA; Warren County, VA; Alexandria city, VA; Fairfax city, VA; Falls Church city, VA; Fredericksburg city, VA; Manassas city, VA; Manassas Park city, VA; Jefferson County, WV (Northern Virginia includes all Virginia counties listed here) 11. Winchester MSA - Frederick County, VA; Winchester city, VA; Hampshire County, WV Virginia Counties 22
24 Sources and Notes House Price Index Federal Housing Finance Agency/Haver Analytics Weighted repeat sales index, measuring the average price changes in repeat sales or refinancing on the same single family properties. Based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Unemployment Rate Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics General Housing Statistics Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Area Definitions Office of Management and Budget, 2008 Loan Distribution and Loan Performance (1) Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics (2) McDash Analytics Mortgage Data McDash Analytics recently made a large enhancement to their mortgage performance data with the addition of several, primarily non-bank, mortgage servicers covering an additional 3.5 million loans. Performance numbers for the added servicers date back to January Historical rates may have changed in this version of the Mortgage Performance Summaries from previous versions. 23
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