Testing Astrological Predictions about ^ Marriage, and Selfishness

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1 ARTICLE Testing Astrological Predictions about ^ Marriage, and Selfishness BY CHARLES S. REICHARDT YOUR SEX DRTVE DEPENDS ON YOUR. AT least that's what claims. For example, astrology-online says that people born under the sign of Aries are "liable to have a high sex drive," those born under the sign of Leo have "unlimited sexual lust," and those born under the sign of Taurus are "more than averagely amorous." In contrast, those born under the sign of Virgo are said to engage in love making that is "a perfection of technique rather than the expression of desire, and they must be careful not to mate with a partner whose sex drive requires a passion they cannot match," and those born under the sign of Pisces are said to be "sexually delicate, in the extreme almost asexual, and most Pisceans would want a relationship in which the partner's mind and spirit rather than the body resonated with their own." Below, I report the results of empirical tests of these and other astrological claims, using a representative sample of 5,000 Americans. The General Social Survey The data for the tests of astrology come from the General Social Survey (GSS), which has been conducted either yearly or every other year from to 0. The GSS is supported by the National Science Foundation and conducted by the National Opinion Research Center, which is affiliated with the University of Chicago. From to 4, quota sampling was used to select the individuals in the sample. Both quota and random sampling were used in 5 and. Starting in, the samples were selected at random. In the early years, about 1,500 people were interviewed in each wave of data collection. In recent years, the sample size has fluctuated from,000 to 4,500 respondents per wave. Across all the years, the GSS contains data from 5,000 American adults. The GSS contains responses to hundreds of questions ranging from basic demographics (including zodiac sign) to controversial social attitudes (such is opinions about gun control and abortion). Some questions (called permanent questions) are asked every time the survey is administered. Other questions (called rotating questions) are asked periodically. And some questions (called occasional questions) are asked on only a single wave. In addition, some of the questions are asked of only a randomly selected portion of a sample so as to reduce the burden on respondents. The results that I report below are aggregated across all years for which data are available. Because of its high quality and breadth of coverage, the GSS data set has been the basis for hundreds of academic articles in peer-reviewed journals. Sex Drive Since, the GSS has included a question asking respondents, "About how often did you have sex during the last months?" If individuals born under certain zodiac signs have substantially different sex drives, as implied by the quotations from astrology-online that were given above, responses to this GSS question should differ substantially across the zodiac signs. This prediction can be tested by cross-tabulating the responses to the question about sexual activity with the respondents' zodiac sign. This cross-tabulation produces the results shown in Table 1, which is based on data from a total of, respondents. The numbers in the cells of Table 1 are the percentages of respondents within each column who reported a given level of sexual frequency. For example, the "" in the upper left-hand corner of 40 SKEPTIC MAGAZINE volume 15 number 4

2 Table l means that % of those born under the sign of Aries reported having had no sexual activity at all during the past months. As the results in Table 1 reveal, there is relatively little variation in the distributions of reported sexual frequency across the zodiac signs. Of the 4 cells in the body of Table 1, only one cell has a percentage that differs from the norm (which is given in the column labeled "row total") by percentage points, all the other cells differ from the norm by percentage points or less. Although the entries in the cells in Table 1 do not differ from the norm by very large amounts in absolute terms, a few of the entries differ from the norm statistically, which means the entries may be larger than can be explained by chance alone. But the entries that differ from the norms statistically are as often inconsistent as consistent with astrology-online's characterizations about sex drives, as described above. For example, 5% of those born under the sign of Virgo report having sex four or more times per week, which is statistically less than the norm of %, and is what one should expect if Virgos have low sex drives as suggested by astrology-online. But % of Leos report having had no sex at all during the past months, which is statistically greater than the norm of %, but is the opposite of what one should expect if Leos have high sex drives, as suggested by astrology-online. In short, the results in Table 1 do not well support the conclusion that sex drives vary with zodiac sign to any substantial degree in the ways implied by astrology-online. Sexual Infidelity The descriptions of the different zodiac signs on astrology-online imply that individuals born under some signs are more likely than others to have extramarital affairs. For example, astrology-online claims that those born under the sign of Aquarius are "faithful to [their partners] for life" and that those born under the sign of Pisces are "intensely loyal" and "will remain faithful" to their lovers. In contrast, those born under the sign of Leo are said to be "very much inclined to deceive" and "may have numerous love affairs." One of the questions asked on the GSS is "Have you ever had sex with someone other than your husband or wife while you were married?" A cross-tabulation of the responses to that question with the respondent's zodiac sign produced the results in Table, which is based on data from,0 respondents. As revealed by the first row of results in Table, the percentages of respondents who reported having had extra-marital affairs varies between % and 14%, depending on zodiac sign. These differences across the zodiac signs in Table are no larger than one should expect by chance alone. In addition, if the differences were to be taken seriously, note that Table 1: Cross-tabulation of Zodiac Sign and Frequency of Sex (N=.) Frequency of Sex During the Past Months NOT AT ALL ONCE OR TWICE ONCEA MONTH - TIMES A MONTH WEEKLY - PER WEEK - 4+PER WEEK 5 volume 15 number

3 Table : Cross-tabulation of Zodiac Sign and Whether the Respondent Has Ever Had an Extra-niarital Affair (N=i,oi) Have Sex With Other Than Spouse While Married YES NO NEVER MARRIED Aquarians and Pisceans are on the high side for having had extra-marital affairs compared to the norm, and both Aquarians and Pisceans report having had affairs more often than do Leos, v^^hich are the opposite of what one would predict given the characterizations on astrology-online. Marital Status and Divorce The preceding tests relied on characterizations of individuals with different zodiac signs that were obtained from a single web site (astrology-online). The reason for focusing on astrology-online is that I didn't find descriptions from any other astrological web site that addressed the issues of sex drive and marital infidelity. But more than one astrological web site makes claims about other personal characteristics. The tests in the remainder of the present study draw from several other astrological web sites in addition to astrology-online.' Individuals born under different sun signs are said, according to astrologers, to possess traits that should increase the chances that individuals v^all marry and stay married. For example, those born under the signs of Cancer, Libra, and Taurus are said to possess the following traits which would seem likely to make them more inclined toward marriage, at least compared to those who did not possess the traits: Cancer - those born under the sign of Cancer are said to value home life and family, and to desire emotional security and attachment. (A) (D) (L) (O) Libra - Libra is the sign of partnerships. Those born under the sign Libra are said to seek to maintain alliances with others. (A) (D) (O) Taurus - those born under the, sign of Taurus are said to be loyal and faithful spouses who seek stability and harmony in their lives. (A) (O) In contrast, individuals born under the signs of Gemini and Sagittarius are said to possess traits that would make them inclined to either avoid marriage or get divorced if they did get married, at least compared to those who did not possess the same trdts: Gemini - those born under the sign of Gemini are said to have trouble maintaining a romantic relationship with a single partner and to love variety and change. (D) (O) Sagittarius - those born under the sign of Sagittarius are said to be "more apt then [sic] average to make an uncongenial alliance" (O) and don't want to be "pinned dovm" (D) (A). The preceding astrological characterizations of individuals born under different zodiac signs can be assessed by comparing marital statuses across individuals with different zodiac signs. Toward this end. Table, which is based on data from 4,14 respondents, presents the results of a cross-tabulation of zodiac sign and current marital status. The results in Table reveal only small differences in marital status across individuals with different zodiac signs. For example, consider the first row in Table where, on average, 1% of the respondents are currently married. According to the astrological characterizations given above, those born under the signs of Cancer, Libra, and Taurus should be more likely to be married than the norm while those born under the signs of Gemini and Sagittarius should be less likely to be married than the norm. None of these five differences between the entries in Table and the 4 SKEPTIC MAGAZINE volume 15 number 4

4 Table : Cross-tabulation of Zodiac Sign and Marital Status (N= 4,14) Marital Status TOTTAL MARRIED i WIDOWED 5 DIVORCED SEPARATED NEVER MARRIED norm are large and none are statistically significant, which means the differences are no larger than expected by chance. None of these comparisons in the next three rows of Table Eire statistically significant, either. That is, none of the results for those born under the signs of Cancer, Libra, Taurus, Gemini, or Sagittarius differ statistically significantly from the norm in these three rows. One comparison in the last row in Table is statistically significant while the other comparisons are not. The percent of respondents who have never been married does not differ significantly from the norm for those born under the sign of Cancer, Libra, Taurus and Gemini. The percent of respondents born under the sign of Sagittarius who have never been married (.%) is statistically greater than the norm (.%). This difference agrees with the astrological characterizations given above, but it is a difference of only 1.5 percentage points, which is hardly substantively significance. To summarize, most of the predictions based on the astrological characterizations given above were not supported by the data. One statistically significant difference was found that was in the predicted direction. But the size of the difference is small and insubstantial. Compared to the norm, those born under the sign of Cancer, Libra, and Taurus are not more likely, to any meaningful degree, to be married and those born under the signs of Gemini and Sagittarius are not more likely, to any meaningful degree, to be divorced, separated, or never married. Political Views According to astrological characterizations, people born under different sun signs have different tendencies toward liberalism and conservatism. For example, astrological web sites assert that those born under certain signs have the following characteristics: Taurus - those born under the sign of Taurus are "conservative in temperament" (A) (L). Virgo - those born under the sign of Virgo tend "toward conservatism in all departments of life" (O). Libra - those born under the sign of Libra dislike extremes and "are moderate in their opinions" (O). Scorpio - those born under the sign of Scorpio rebel against convention and favor "political extremism" (O). Sagittarius - those born under the sign of Sagittarius "tend to be somewhat conservative" (L). One of the questions in the GSS asks respondents to characterize their political leanings from conservative to liberal. A cross-tabulation of the responses to that question and the respondent's zodiac sign produces the results in Table 4, which is based on data from 40, respondents. As revealed in Table 4, the percentages of respondents who consider themselves to be liberal, moderate, and conservative varies, respectively, between -%, -41%, and -%, depending on the respondents' zodiac signs. None of the differences that would be predicted based on the preceding astrological characterizations are statistically volume 15 number 4 4

5 Table 4: Cross-tabulation of Zodiac Sign and Political Views (N=40,) Think of Self as Liberal or Conservative TCXTAL LIBERAL MODERATE CONSER- VATIVE significant. Compared to the norm, the respondents born under the signs of Taurus, Virgo, Libra, Scorpio, and Sagittarius are no more nor less liberal, moderate, or conservative than one should expect due to chance alone. Selfishness According to astrology, individuals born under different sun signs have different tendencies toward being focused on oneself versus being concerned with others. For example, astrology offers the follovidng characterizations: Aries - those born under the sign of Aries are selfcentered and selfish (D) (A). Cancer - those born under the sign of Cancer are "quick to help others" (A). Virgo - those born under the sign of Virgo are "born to serve" and "work for the greater good" (A). Libra those born under the sign of Libra "want to do what's best for everyone" (A), Aquarius - those born under the sign of Aquarius are "humanitarian, philanthropic and keenly interested in making the world a better place" (A). Pisces those born under the sign of Pisces "will quickly put the needs of others ahead of their own" (A). One of the questions on the GSS asks respondents whether they agree or disagree with the following statement: "You have to take care of yourself first, and if you have any energy left over, then help other people." A cross-tabulation of the responses to that question and the individual's zodiac sign produces the results in Table 5, which is based on data from,004 respondents. Except for one cell, the entries in Tables 5 differ from the norm no more than one would expect by chance. The one difference that is larger than expected by chance contradicts what is predicted by astrology. Rather than "putting the needs of others ahead of their own" as suggested by astrology, the GSS respondents who were born under the sign of Pisces are less likely than average to disagree that "you have to take care of yourself first." But that result is likely to be what statisticians call a "type I error." In the population, those born under the sign of Pisces are probably no more nor less likely to help others than those born under any other sign. The statistically significant result in Table 5 is probably just a statistical fluke, something you are likely to find when, as in the present article, lots of comparisons are being made. In any case, the results in Table 5 do not provide support for astrological characterizations about selfishness as described above. Conduct Tests Yourself Many other characterizations of individuals born under different zodiac signs are provided by astrological web sites or books, and could be tested using the data from the GSS. I've performed quite a few additional tests, besides the ones reported here, and I've found none that provide support for astrology in any meaningful way. But you, dear reader, can explore the issue for yourself if you like. One of the great advantages of the GSS data set is that it is readily accessible. The Computer- Assisted Survey Methods Program (CSM) at the University of California at Berkeley has created and made freely available a statistical interface that allows anyone to access and analyze the GSS data on the web. The interface (called SDA for Survey Documentation and Analysis) is exception- 44 SKEPTIC MAGAZINE volume 15 number 4

6 Table 5: Cross-tahulation of Zodiac Sign and Selfishness (N=,004) Take Care of Yourself First Before Others AGREE NEITHER DISAGREE ally easy to use. For example, the results in the tables in the present article required no more than going to a weh site at UC Berkeley, typing the names of the two variables in the cross-tabulation, and hitting the enter key. If you are interested, you can find a lesson I have written on astrology at that will walk you through the steps needed to conduct the analyses and interpret the results for yourself. I use the lesson in my classes at the University of Denver both to teach about astrology in particular and about the process of theory testing in general. You are invited to make fair use of the lesson as well. Conclusions More than a few studies have been conducted to assess astrological predictions. Critical assessments and summaries can be found in sources such as Culver and Ianna (), Groóme (01), Hiñes (0), and Hoggart and Hutchinson (5). Although the results of empirical tests of astrology are not without controversy, a fair assessment suggests that astrology provides little if any basis for accurately describing individual human differences. The results in the present paper are in line with this conclusion. The present results provide more evidence that opposes, rather than supports, astrological characterizations of individuals born under different zodiac signs. Studies of astrology have sometimes employed sample sizes far greater than the sample size used in the present study. For example, Hoggart and Hutchinson (5) describe a study that examined the relationship between zodiac sign and occupation using census data from. million workers in England. Nonetheless, the present study uses a sample size that is substantially larger than is typical for studies of astrology. Perhaps the most distinguishing feature of the present study, however, is that it uses a data set that is exceptionally rich in content and easily accessible. The GSS data set contains hundreds more variables that could be used to assess astrological predictions than the few variables that have been examined in the present study. If zodiac signs can predict meaningful individual differences, astrologers who believe characterizations based on zodiac signs can be supported by data should flock to the GSS to see what secrets it can reveal. Of course, fair-minded astrologers should also be willing to acknowledge when, contrary to their predictions, the data reveal no meaningful differences among individuals born under different zodiac signs. B REFERENCES Culver, R. B. & Ianna, P. A.. Astrology: True or false?: A Scier)tific Evaluation. Buffalo, NY: Prometheus. Groóme, D. 01. Astrology. In R. Roberts & D. Groóme (ed.). Parapsychology: The Science of Unusual Experience, (pp. 0-). London: Hodder Arnold. Hines, T. 0. Pseudoscience and the Paranormal, "" ed. Buffalo, NY: Prometheus. Hoggart, S. & Hutchinson, M. 5. Bizarre Beliefs. London: Richard Cohen Books. FOOTNOTE ' Descriptions were taken froni the following four web sites: (A) = (D) = (L) = (0) = The body of the text references the source of the descriptions using the letters A, D, L, and 0 to designate the web sites as denoted above. A bold-faced A, D, L or 0 in parentheses indicates the source of a quotation. A non-bold faced letter in parentheses indicates the web site provides a description that is consistent with the one given In the text. volume 15 number

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YouGov Survey Results

YouGov Survey Results Sample Size: 2090 GB Adults Fieldwork: 10th - 11th October 2010 Voting intention Gender Age Social grade Region The following questions are about horoscopes and star signs... Which