Progress towards mitigating space weather effects on aviation

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Coleen Pierce
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1 Prgress tards mitigating space eather effects n aviatin NBAA Nvember 18, 2015 Space Weather Impacts n Aviatin W. Kent Tbiska President and Chief Scientist Space Envirnment Technlgies 1

2 Space eather affects 3 aviatin areas 1. Aviatin radiatin expsure GCR backgrund dse (career health) SEP event dse (fleet peratins and aircre/passenger safety) 2. Grund-t-aircraft radi cmmunicatin disruptin HF radi cmmunicatin (transceanic and plar rutes) Scintillatin utages fr L-band, UHF, HF (satcm, radar, cmm) 3. WAAS GPS Navigatin Increased lcatin uncertainty (during landing and appraches) Where are e tday? Space eather is mving beynd understanding (c. 2000) int tailred risk management (c. 2015) 2

3 Radiatin expsure HF cmmunicatin utages WAAS navigatin errr 1/5/2016 3

4 Objective: Build a real-time, peratinal system t measure and reprt aviatin radiatin fr use by pilts, peratrs, and air traffic management 4

5 Managing aviatin radiatin 1. What is the prblem? Radiatin at aviatin altitudes abve FL260 can lead t elevated cancer rates, career limiting illness, r even death Cre, frequent flyers, fetuses in first trimester are the mst at-risk ppulatins GCR backgrund can limit careers frm lng-term statistical expsure SEP slar flare events can cnstrain cre schedules s they d nt exceed mnthly, annual dse limits frm shrt-term statistical expsure Metrics At 37,000 ft., every 10 hurs 1 chest X-ray in equivalent dse rate Every 6500 ft. higher dubles the dse rate (FL chest X-rays and FL chest X-rays) Every 6500 ft. ler halves the dse rate (FL 300 ½ chest X-ray) 100 km equatrard in magnetic latitude may als significantly reduce the dse rate 5

6 Managing aviatin radiatin 1. Prblem NIOSH air cre expsure studies (Grajeski, et al., 2015) 6

7 Managing aviatin radiatin 1. Prblem NIOSH air cre studies results (Grajeski, et al., 2015) TBD 7

8 Managing aviatin radiatin 2. What can be dne abut it? Determine the eather f the radiatin envirnment GCR backgrund envirnment mnitring supprts cre career lngevity SEP events are similar t vlcanic ash clud events Estimate uncertainties ith climatlgical mdels in ensemble runs and ith data assimilatin t mve climatlgy int eather (like ith hurricane tracking in trpspheric eather) Use physics-based mdels such as NAIRAS (NASA LaRC) Use empirical such as CARI-7 (FAA CAMI) Build a glbal system f quality real-time measurements n aircraft supplied t the grund via AMDAR fr data assimilatin use in radiatin eather mdels Expand systems such as ARMAS (NASA & SET) 8

9 Managing aviatin radiatin 3. What is the radiatin effects management path? Nn-pilt cre, frequent flyers and fetuses can nly mnitr their persnal prfiles Pilts can rerute flight paths during severe radiatin events in the same ay a reginal vlcanic ash clud is avided Air Traffic Cntrl can alter entire reginal rutes during severe radiatin events in the same ay a vlcanic ash clud is avided ICAO can set standards and guidelines fr event identificatin ATC needs a real-time, frecast data cube t implement tls f Drpping altitude t ler the dse rate Reruting flight tracks equatrard t reduce the dse rate 9

10 Managing aviatin radiatin 4. What is currently being dne? CARI-6 is used fr peratinal guidance NAIRAS (Ncast f Atmspheric Inizing Radiatin System) is ging thru peratinal prttyping develpment ARMAS (Autmated Radiatin Measurements fr Aerspace Safety) system is in early develpment (4 units in flight) ARMAS emplys airbrne micr dsimeters t cllect real-time TID (ttal inizing dse) ARMAS transmits TID, time, and GPS lcatin t the grund via Iridium satellite link fr data cmparisn (eventual assimilatin) ith NAIRAS ARMAS TID is calibrated t the gld-standard TEPC (tissue equivalent prprtinal cunter) using NSRL, LANSCE, LLUMC, LLNL beam lines ARMAS distributes updated dse rate infrmatin ith 15-minute latency 10

11 NAIRAS and ARMAS Real-time glbal aviatin radiatin climatlgy Real-time lcal aviatin radiatin measurements NAIRAS 11

12 ARMAS real-time measurement demnstratin 100 NASA DC-8, NOAA G-IV, NSF G-V flights ARMAS Flight Mdule 1 (FM1) n NASA AFRC DC-8 12

13 ARMAS FM1 ( ) flight 18 example Space Weather Impacts n Aviatin Winnipeg Winnipeg Hustn Spkane Hustn 13

14 Typical ARMAS FM1 flight prfile (flight 18) 14

15 ARMAS FM1 FLIGHT SUMMARY 60 + flights during high t mderate slar activity (May 2013 t Aug 2014) All data are frm GCR radiatin ith n SEPs ARMAS has validated NAIRAS fr the FL260 t FL400 range GCR dse begins ~8 km L data cunts abve ~11 km (ignre data fitting) 15

ARMAS FM2 Deplyments in 2015 Krea Space Weather

cmmercializatin FM2s ere deplyed t NOAA G-IV and

the cmmunity starting in June 2015 frm the NOAA

16 ARMAS FM2 Deplyments in 2015 Krea Space Weather Center purchased t FM2s as part f ARMAS Phase IIE cmmercializatin FM2s ere deplyed t NOAA G-IV and NSF G-V in Feb-Mar 2015 Data became available t the cmmunity starting in June 2015 frm the NOAA G-IV and August 2015 ith the NSF G-V NSF G-V NOAA G-IV 16

17 NOAA G-IV flight prfile (ARMAS FM2) fr Hurricane Danny (August 2015) 17

18 NSF G-V flight prfile (ARMAS FM2) fr Antarctica (Octber 2015) 18

cmmercializatin Deplyment n the ER-2 in June 2015 First

19 AFRC ER-2 ARMAS FM3 Deplyment in 2015 NASA Armstrng Flight Research Center has fln ne FM3 as part f ARMAS Phase III cmmercializatin Deplyment n the ER-2 in June 2015 First data t FL550 became available t the cmmunity in September

20 ARMAS FM4 Deplyment Stratspheric balln flights starting in 2016 under MOU beteen Wrld Vie and SET Data ill be extended t ~40 km as a Wrld Vie pathfinder paylad Credit: Wrld Vie 20

dse expsure reprted in a glbal cntext prviding situatinal aareness Prvides management

21 ARMAS FM5 n business jets in 2016 FM5 has micr dsimeter, GPS, Iridium, and Bluetth in a size similar t a smart phne All altitude ranges and all surces f radiatin Persnal dse expsure reprted in a glbal cntext prviding situatinal aareness Prvides management ptins fr SEP event flight expsure FAA cmpliant (stand-alne unit ith n attachment t plane) 21

22 Real-time Autmated Radiatin Measurements fr Aerspace Safety (ARMAS) ebsite 22

UBIMET. Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

UBIMET. Climate Change Adaptation Strategies UBIMET Climate Change Adaptatin Strategies UBIMET INSTITUTE FOR UBIQUITOUS METEOROLOGY Internatinal Meterlgical Institute Funded in 2004 by a meterlgist and a chemist Glbal scpe / headquarters in Vienna,