Practice Final Exam (corrected formulas, 12/10 11AM)

Transcription

1 Ecoomc Meze. Ch Fall Socal Scece 78 Uvery of Wco-Mado Pracce Fal Eam (correced formula, / AM) Awer all queo he (hree) bluebook provded. Make cera you wre your ame, your ude I umber, ad your TA ame o all your bluebook, a well a og he bluebook (A,, or C). Th eam 9 mue log, alhough you wll be gve mue o complee. Po allocao are proporoal o me allocao. Paral cred wll be awarded f he wre maeral dcae uderadg of how o awer he queo (.e., gbberh wll o be gve cred). luebook A: mue, hypohe eg A. ( mue) Movg compae are requred by he goverme o publh a Carrer Performace Repor each year. Oe of he decrpve ac hey mu clude he aual perceage of hpme o whch a 5 or greaer clam for lo or damage wa fled. Suppoe Compay A ad Compay each decde o emae h fgure by amplg her record, ad hey repor he daa how he able. Compay Co. A Co. Toal hpme ampled 9 75 Number of hpme wh clam Coduc a e of hypohe o deerme f Compay A ha a hgher proporo of hpme whch a 5 or greaer clam for lo or damage fled ha doe Compay. H: 55/65 appromaely.55. A. ( mue) A udy wa commoed o compare he houg co of wo growg ce. The goal of he udy wa o emae he dfferece he average houg co (a meaured prce per quare foo) of he wo ce. Two plo ample of 5 houe each cy were ake ad yelded he followg formao Cy Cy Mea of houg co 5. per quare foo 5.7 per quare foo Sd. ev. of houg co. per quare foo 6per quare foo The udy alo waed o deerme f he varao he houg co for he wo ce dffered. Ue α.5 o coduc he dered e.

2 A. ( mue) The Uvery of Meoa ue houad of fluorece lgh bulb each year. The brad of bulb currely ue ha a mea lfe of 9 hour. A maufacurer clam ha ew brad of bulb, whch co he ame a he brad he uvery currely ue, ha a mea lfe of more ha 9 hour. The uvery ha decded o purchae he ew brad f, whe eed, he e evdece uppor he maufacurer' clam a he.5 gfcace level. Suppoe 6 bulb were eed wh he followg reul: 9 hour, 8 hour. Coduc he e ug α.5. luebook : mue, regreo I macroecoomc, he Phllp Curve a emprcal relaohp ha decrbe flao a a fuco of epeced flao ad he oupu gap (he gap bewee curre GP ad he ormal level of oupu of GP). e π β + βπ + β + ε y Ug daa o US flao, aumg epeced flao ju la perod flao, ad ug he Cogreoal udge Offce (CO) emae of he oupu gap, he followg reul were obaed. epede Varable: INFLUS Mehod: Lea Square ae: /7/ Tme: :59 Sample(adjued): 97: : Icluded obervao: afer adjug edpo Varable Coeffce Sd. Error -Sac Prob. C INFLUS(-) GAPUS_CO R-quared.68 Mea depede var.585 Adjued R-quared S.. depede var.6 S.E. of regreo.95 Akake fo crero Sum quared red.888 Schwarz crero Log lkelhood 8.5 F-ac 6.8 urb-wao a.899 Prob(F-ac). a) Wha he erpreao of he coa h coe? (flao ad he oupu gap are meaured decmal form,.e., % recorded a. ). b) Show how you would calculae he R-quared ug he daa he regreo oupu. c) Compare he coeffce of deermao h pecfcao veru ha he mple regreo:

3 epede Varable: INFLUS Mehod: Lea Square ae: /8/ Tme: 6:6 Sample(adjued): 97: : Icluded obervao: afer adjug edpo Varable Coeffce Sd. Error -Sac Prob. C INFLUS(-) R-quared.666 Mea depede var.585 Adjued R-quared.6657 S.. depede var.6 S.E. of regreo.959 Akake fo crero -5.7 Sum quared red.75 Schwarz crero Log lkelhood F-ac. urb-wao a.9 Prob(F-ac). The coeffce of deermao hgher he hree varable pecfcao ha he mple regreo. I h uffce reao o prefer he hree varable o wo varable regreo? Wha would be a beer deco crero? d) Reurg o he hree varable regreo reul, coder he followg queo. If la perod flao were %, ad he curre oupu gap were %, wha would your predco of he curre perod flao rae be, o he ba of he above equao. e) Summary ac for flao ad he oupu gap are repored he able below. How cofde are you of he predco you have made? Epla your reaog. ae: /7/ Tme: :7 Sample: 97: : INFLUS GAPUS_CO Mea Meda Mamum Mmum Sd. ev..6.8 Sum Sq. ev

4 luebook C: mue, Compreheve C. Hypohe Teg ( mue) eroull a acal coula for Pacal Eerpre. Pacal Eerpre waed o e he ull hypohe, H, ha he proporo p of ledger hee wh error equal o.5 veru he alerave, H a, ha he proporo larger ha.5. eroull fr ak wa o coruc a e of hee hypohee. Uforuaely, eroull had a b oo much o drk ad propoed he followg e: Selec wo ledger hee a radom. If boh are error free, rejec H. If oe or more coa a error, look a a hrd hee. If he hrd hee error-free, rejec H. I all oher cae, we accep H. a) Wha he value of α (he probably of a Type I error) aocaed wh h e? b) Fd β (he probably of a Type II error) erm of p. C. Regreo (8 mue) eroull ecod ak for he day wa o emae ome regreo. Fr, he Pacal Eerpre waed o e how ale vared by eao. Le y be a meaure of daly ale. eroull defed he followg dummy varable:, f he day wa he Wer; oherwe, f he day wa he Sprg; oherwe, f he day wa he Summer; oherwe, f he day wa he Auum; oherwe The, eroull emaed he followg regreo o deerme he effec of eao o daly ale: yˆ ˆ β + ˆ β ˆ ˆ ˆ + β + β + β a) Epla brefly (oe eece) why eroull regreo o properly pecfed. b) Wre dow he regreo ha eroull hould have emaed. Secod, Pacal Eerpre waed o e wheher a corporao prof, y, could be predced from formao o: he CEO aual come he perceage of he compay ock owed by he CEO eroull deermed (correcly) ha CEO come ad ock holdg could erac o predc compay prof. Thu, he emaed h model wh a eraco erm: yˆ ˆ β + ˆ β + ˆ β + ˆ β regreo oe

5 He coduced -e o he coeffce ad oced ha whle ˆ β wa gfcaly dffere from zero, ˆβ wa o. Thu, he dropped ad ead emaed he followg regreo: yˆ ˆ β + ˆ β + ˆ β regreo wo c) True/Fale/Epla: oh regreo oe ad regreo wo are correcly pecfed. 8.. :PM I h cae, Normal, ad F able would be provded a he eam. 5

6 Ecoomc Fall Equao ad formula for Fal Eam ( ) ( ) N N! where N!(N)(N-)(N-) ()()!( N )! PL ( L) PL ( ) PL ( ) f L ad L are depede P( A ) P( A) + P( ) P( A ) P( A ) P( A ) P ( ) / p z core µ ± z α / / p ± z α p where p ± α / where / ~ + p + z ( ) α / z ( ) α / θ θ z θ where for parameer θµ, /, ad for parameer θp, p µ / Power -β χ ( ) + + or ( ) p + ( ) where p ( ) + ( ) + 6

7 + + ( p p ) or + ; p + + ( zα / ) ( + ) ( z ) ( p q + p q ) α / F larger or F maller y β + β y β, β y β ( )( y y) y y y ( ) ( ) ( y y) y ( y ) E ( k + ) E ( y y ) β y β y ± / r R β α β E ( p ) y ± α / + ( p ) y ± α / + + β β R ( ) R k + ( ) ( ) a F ( E)/ k E /[ ( k + )] MeaSquare( Model) MeaSquare( Error) E( y) β + β + β E( y) β + β + β + β E( y) β + β + β 7