Water management in a semi-arid region: an analogue algorithm approach for rainfall seasonal forecasting
|
|
- Cody Skinner
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Water management in a semi-arid region: an analogue algorithm approach for rainfall seasonal forecasting Maracchi G., M. Pasqui and F. Piani IBIMET-CNR Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON AGROMETEOROLOGICAL RISK MANAGEMENT: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES New Delhi, India, October 2006
2 Seasonal Forecasting in Sahel Motivations: Why a new seasonal forecasting method is needed? New insights on African Monsoon physical mechanism and SST role on precipitation (Vizy&Cook 2001, Giannini et al. 2003): Southern Sahel Precipitation is positive correlated with Guinea Gulf SST. Northern Sahel Precipitation is negative correlated with Indian and Central Pacific SST. Interannual variability due to Niño. A monthly anomaly data is needed, at least, for any agrometeorological application: seeding time and early warning systems. Related Activity on Seasonal Forecasting: Setting up a map server based data dissemination tool for end-users: qualitatively browsing of available maps; simple extraction of data for end-users applications: agrometeorological, risk management, hydrology; Spatial Downscaling techniques
3 Analogues method: an overview SST (Reynolds) as Predictors over : 1.Niño-3 (5S-5N;150W-90W) 2.Guinea Gulf (10S-5N;20W-10E) 3.Indian Ocean (5S-15N;60E-90E) OUTPUT: Precip. (GPCP) Anomaly vs Clim. ISSUED: every month VALIDITY: Quarterly and Monthly Sahel Area: 10 W 10 E, 10 N 20 N Target Sahel area Nino3 Most variability during ENSO Water Vapour for African Monsoon Feed Asian Monsoon
4 Method Standardized* Anomalies (SSTA) obtained by: Subtraction of the SST average Division by SST standard deviation Standardized Change Rates to consider the trend of the predictors defined as: difference between current and previous standardized SSTA for the considered month *Standardization is used to have the same order of magnitude of all the predictors
5 Searching for the analogue year Each month in [ ] is defined by a vector in a 6 dimentional space: Predictors P i : 1. SST Nino-3 std anomalies 2. SST Guinea std anomalies 3. SST Indian std anomalies 4. SST Nino-3 Change rate 5. SST Guinea Change rate 6. SST Indian Change rate Using a simple projection, each original predictors is weighted according to the relative correlation with the Sahel precipitation. P' New Predictors P i i = ω j i ω j P i Where ω ι represents correlation coeff. between P i and Precipitation over Sahel area (10 W 10 E, 10 N 20 N) for a specific month, furthermore we assume that: ω 1 =ω 4 ω 2 =ω 5 ω 3 =ω 6
6 Searching for the analogue year #2 Analog criterion: Minimization of the Euclidean distance in the 6-dimensional space of predictors P i : min 6 1 ' ' 2 ( Pi curr Pi past ) After the distance minimization the analogue year is found and used for the seasonal forecasts. Best Analog year
7 Seasonal Forecast: Step by Step CURRENT MONTH e.g.: April 2006 ANALOGUE YEAR e.g.: April 1994 MONTH+1 e.g.: May 2006 May 1994 MONTH+2 e.g.: June 2006 June 1994 MONTH+3 e.g.: July 2006 July 1994 CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE e.g.: May, June, July ANOMALIES
8 IBIMET Seasonal Products
9 Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts AMJ - Anomaly May Percent Anomaly
10 Qualitative Comparison: 1998 Good Accordance JAS issued on June 1999
11 Qualitative Comparison: 2001 Good Accordance JAS issued on June 2003
12 Qualitative Comparison: Good Accordance 2004 JAS issued on June
13 Qualitative Comparison: 2000 Bad Accordance JAS issued on June 2002
14 Qualitative Comparison: AMJ issued on March Good Accordance 2005
15 Quantitative Comparison: An example of forecast maps of percentage anomaly for the year 2003 with the correspondent observed values from CMAP (Janowiak and Xie 1999): for each month, June, July and August, forecasted maps were shown with different time lags.
16 Quantitative Comparison: 1 Month Ahead 2 Months Ahead 3 Month Ahead Below Above Norm Below Above Norm Below Above Norm Obs.: Below Normal 25% 13% 38% 25% 49% 38% 62% 37% 13% Below Above Norm Below Below Above Norm Below Below Above Norm Below Obs.: Above Normal 38% 25% 37% Above 49% 13% 38% Above 13% 62% 25% Above Below Above Norm Below Above Norm Below Above Norm Obs.: Normal 13% 62% 25% 13% 49% 38% 49% 13% 38% Normal Normal Normal Chocolate wheels for Sahel area evaluation. Numbers represent the percentage of historical cases in the lower (light grey), middle (white) and upper (dark grey) terciles for August. Table columns represent time lags and table rows represent different observed classes (Below Above Normal from top to bottom).
17 Ongoing Activities Quantitative Validation Definition of POD, FAR skill indices. Further method development: Sensitivity study to the adopted metric. Possible displacements of active SST areas. Use of Forecast SST anomalies as Predictors. Possible inclusion of the SST of the Extra-Tropics North Atlantic (Mauritania) as predictor. Evaluation of a possible extension of the method to the temperature anomalies over Mediterranean Basin.
18 Conclusions The improving of seasonal forecasts on Sahel region, especially for agrometeorological applications, should include a full comprehension of physical mechanism including Hadley Cell dynamics. The present spatial resolution should be improved in order to obtain an useful geographical information input for agrometeorological models ( ~ 10km ). Dissemination of seasonal forecast information should take into account the new web-based tools such as Map Server. The method, due to its direct link with some physical mechanism, could be use as an independent tool for further analysis with other statistic approaches.
Seasonal forecasting of climate anomalies for agriculture in Italy: the TEMPIO Project
Seasonal forecasting of climate anomalies for agriculture in Italy: the TEMPIO Project M. Baldi(*), S. Esposito(**), E. Di Giuseppe (**), M. Pasqui(*), G. Maracchi(*) and D. Vento (**) * CNR IBIMET **
More informationSEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK VALID FOR JULY-AUGUST- SEPTEMBER 2013 IN WEST AFRICA, CHAD AND CAMEROON
SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK VALID FOR JULY-AUGUST- SEPTEMBER 2013 IN WEST AFRICA, CHAD AND CAMEROON May 29, 2013 ABUJA-Federal Republic of Nigeria 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Given the current Sea Surface and sub-surface
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through
More informationLong Range Forecast Update for 2014 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall
Earth System Science Organization (ESSO) Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) India Meteorological Department PRESS RELEASE New Delhi, 9 June 2014 Long Update for 2014 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall HIGHLIGHTS
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño
More informationApril Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016
April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 Issued: 5 th April 2016 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through
More informationProbabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems
Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems Franco Molteni, Frederic Vitart, Tim Stockdale, Laura Ferranti, Magdalena Balmaseda European Centre for
More informationApril Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019
April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019 Issued: 5 th April 2019 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London),
More informationSECOND GENERATION SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK PROGRAMME
Page 1/5 CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLICATIONS DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT Institution Africaine parrainée par la CEA et l OMM African
More informationSeasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014
Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June
More informationSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6)
Sixth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6) Dhaka, Bangladesh, 19-22 April 2015 Consensus Statement Summary Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2015 southwest monsoon season
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an
More informationAugust Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2015
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2015 Issued: 5 th August 2015 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-12)
Twelfth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-12) Pune, India, 19-20 April 2018 Consensus Statement Summary Normal rainfall is most likely during the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June
More informationApril Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018
April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 Issued: 5 th April 2018 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationSE Atlantic SST variability and southern African climate
SE Atlantic SST variability and southern African climate Chris Reason Oceanography Dept, Univ. Cape Town Overview of southern African climate and tropical Atlantic SST South American monsoon, Benguela
More informationUsing Reanalysis SST Data for Establishing Extreme Drought and Rainfall Predicting Schemes in the Southern Central Vietnam
Using Reanalysis SST Data for Establishing Extreme Drought and Rainfall Predicting Schemes in the Southern Central Vietnam Dr. Nguyen Duc Hau 1, Dr. Nguyen Thi Minh Phuong 2 National Center For Hydrometeorological
More information1.4 USEFULNESS OF RECENT NOAA/CPC SEASONAL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
1.4 USEFULNESS OF RECENT NOAA/CPC SEASONAL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS Jeanne M. Schneider* and Jurgen D. Garbrecht USDA/ARS Grazinglands Research Laboratory, El Reno, Oklahoma 1. INTRODUCTION Operational climate
More informationJuly Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018
July Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 Issued: 5 th July 2018 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London),
More informationThe role of teleconnections in extreme (high and low) precipitation events: The case of the Mediterranean region
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013 Vienna, Austria, 7 12 April 2013 Session HS7.5/NP8.4: Hydroclimatic Stochastics The role of teleconnections in extreme (high and low) events: The case of
More informationAugust Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2012 Issued: 6 th August 2012 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationFig P3. *1mm/day = 31mm accumulation in May = 92mm accumulation in May Jul
Met Office 3 month Outlook Period: May July 2014 Issue date: 24.04.14 Fig P1 3 month UK outlook for precipitation in the context of the observed annual cycle The forecast presented here is for May and
More informationThe 2009 Hurricane Season Overview
The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview Jae-Kyung Schemm Gerry Bell Climate Prediction Center NOAA/ NWS/ NCEP 1 Overview outline 1. Current status for the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific basins
More informationQuantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on Health in Developing Countries (QWeCI)
Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on Health in Developing Countries (QWeCI) Science Talk QWeCI is funded by the European Commission s Seventh Framework Research Programme under the grant agreement
More informationIGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) UPDATE OF THE ICPAC CLIMATE WATCH REF: ICPAC/CW/NO. 24, AUGUST 2011
IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) UPDATE OF THE ICPAC CLIMATE WATCH REF: ICPAC/CW/NO. 24, AUGUST 2011 SUMMARY Drought conditions have persisted over some parts of the Arid and semi-arid
More informationThe 2010/11 drought in the Horn of Africa: Monitoring and forecasts using ECMWF products
The 2010/11 drought in the Horn of Africa: Monitoring and forecasts using ECMWF products Emanuel Dutra Fredrik Wetterhall Florian Pappenberger Souhail Boussetta Gianpaolo Balsamo Linus Magnusson Slide
More informationAugust Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 Issued: 5 th August 2016 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationMarch Regional Climate Modeling in Seasonal Climate Prediction: Advances and Future Directions
1934-2 Fourth ICTP Workshop on the Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models: Applying RCMs to Developing Nations in Support of Climate Change Assessment and Extended-Range Prediction 3-14 March 2008 Regional
More informationLong Range Forecasts of 2015 SW and NE Monsoons and its Verification D. S. Pai Climate Division, IMD, Pune
Long Range Forecasts of 2015 SW and NE Monsoons and its Verification D. S. Pai Climate Division, IMD, Pune Other Contributors: Soma Sen Roy, O. P. Sreejith, Kailas, Madhuri, Pallavi, Mahendra and Jasmine
More informationTopic 3.2: Tropical Cyclone Variability on Seasonal Time Scales (Observations and Forecasting)
Topic 3.2: Tropical Cyclone Variability on Seasonal Time Scales (Observations and Forecasting) Phil Klotzbach 7 th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones November 18, 2010 Working Group: Maritza Ballester
More informationClimate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015 BUSAN, 23 April 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for May - October 2015 (MJJASO) at the APEC Climate Center
More information2011 Atlantic Hurricane Activity and Outlooks A Climate/ Historical Perspective
2011 Atlantic Hurricane Activity and Outlooks A Climate/ Historical Perspective Gerry Bell NOAA Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster Climate Prediction Center/ NWS Related Publications: Bell and Chelliah
More informationTHE ROLE OF OCEAN STATE INDICES IN SEASONAL AND INTER-ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THAILAND
THE ROLE OF OCEAN STATE INDICES IN SEASONAL AND INTER-ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THAILAND Manfred Koch and Werapol Bejranonda Department of Geohydraulics and Engineering Hydrology, University of Kassel,
More informationJMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018
JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018 Atsushi Minami Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
More informationPre-Season Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018
Pre-Season Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 Issued: 30 th May 2018 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London),
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic NiZo Index
More informationSeasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections
Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections Doug Smith Walter Orr Roberts memorial lecture, 9 th June 2015 Contents Motivation Practical issues
More informationSeasonal Outlook for Summer Season (12/05/ MJJ)
Seasonal Outlook for Summer Season (12/05/2010 - MJJ) Ι. SEASONAL FORECASTS for MAY JUNE JULY FROM GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODELS... 2 I.1. Oceanic Forecast... 2 I.1.a Sea Surface Temperature (SST)... 2 I.1.b
More informationEl Niño 2015/2016: Impact Analysis
El Niño /26: Impact Analysis March 26 Dr Linda Hirons, Dr Nicholas Klingaman This work was funded by the Department for International Development (DFID) 2 Table of Contents. Introduction 4. Update of current
More informationClimate Outlook for Pacific Islands for August 2015 January 2016
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for August 2015 January 2016 BUSAN, 24 July 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for August 2015 January 2016 (ASONDJ) at the APEC Climate
More informationIAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications
WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications Zhaohui LIN Zhou Guangqing Chen Hong Qin Zhengkun Zeng Qingcun Institute
More informationForced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific
Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific Wei Mei 1 Shang-Ping Xie 1, Ming Zhao 2 & Yuqing Wang 3 Climate Variability and Change and Paleoclimate Working
More informationProspects for subseasonal forecast of Tropical Cyclone statistics with the CFS
Prospects for subseasonal forecast of Tropical Cyclone statistics with the CFS Augustin Vintzileos (1)(3), Tim Marchok (2), Hua-Lu Pan (3) and Stephen J. Lord (1) SAIC (2) GFDL (3) EMC/NCEP/NOAA During
More informationNOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Dr. Gerry Bell Lead Seasonal Forecaster Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS Collaboration With National Hurricane Center/ NOAA/ NWS Hurricane Research
More informationAshraf S. Zakey The Egyptian Meteorological Autority
Ashraf S. Zakey The Egyptian Meteorological Autority A new inter-regional climate outlook forum for the Mediterranean Region. Development and dissemination of a consensus-based seasonal climate outlook.
More informationEXECUTIVE BRIEF: El Niño and Food Security in Southern Africa October 2009
El Niño is a phenomenon which occurs in the Pacific Ocean, but affects climate globally. This document summarizes the known historic impacts of El Niño in southern Africa. The impact of El Niño in the
More informationTHEME: Seasonal forecast: Climate Service for better management of risks and opportunities
CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLICATIONS DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT Institution Africaine parrainée par la CEA et l OMM African Institution
More informationClimate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA s Climate Prediction Center Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Operations Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction Acknowlegement: Mathew Rosencrans, Arun
More informationWinter Steve Todd Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Portland, OR
Winter 07-08 Steve Todd Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Portland, OR Overview Winter Weather Outlook How to stay informed Winter Outlook LaNina conditions are present across the tropical
More informationClimate Outlook for December 2015 May 2016
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for December 2015 May 2016 BUSAN, 25 November 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for December 2015 to May 2016 (DJFMAM) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC),
More informationTokyo Climate Center Website (TCC website) and its products -For monitoring the world climate and ocean-
Tokyo, 14 November 2016, TCC Training Seminar Tokyo Climate Center Website (TCC website) and its products -For monitoring the world climate and ocean- Yasushi MOCHIZUKI Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological
More informationTokyo Climate Center s activities as RCC Tokyo
First WMO Workshop on Operational Climate Prediction Pune, India, 09-11 November 2015 Tokyo Climate Center s activities as RCC Tokyo Arata Endo Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency E-mail:
More informationEl Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Monthly Outlook February 2016
El Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Monthly Outlook February 2016 Linda Hirons, Nicolas Klingaman This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the
More informationInternational Desks: African Training Desk and Projects
The Climate Prediction Center International Desks: African Training Desk and Projects Wassila M. Thiaw Team Leader Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions 1 African Desk
More informationJuly Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2017
July Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2017 Issued: 4 th July 2017 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK Forecast
More informationClimate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs
Climate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs 1 Outline Operational Prediction Branch research needs Operational Monitoring Branch research needs New experimental products at CPC Background on CPC
More informationSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-8)
Eighth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-8) Colombo, Sri Lanka, 25-26 April 2016 Consensus Statement Summary Above-normal rainfall is most likely during the 2016 southwest monsoon season
More informationAn El Niño Primer René Gommes Andy Bakun Graham Farmer El Niño-Southern Oscillation defined
An El Niño Primer by René Gommes, Senior Officer, Agrometeorology (FAO/SDRN) Andy Bakun, FAO Fisheries Department Graham Farmer, FAO Remote Sensing specialist El Niño-Southern Oscillation defined El Niño
More informationClimate Outlook and Review
Climate Outlook and Review August 2018 Author: Prof Roger C Stone Overview The European, UK, and US long-term climate models that focus on forecasting central Pacific sea surface temperatures are continuing
More informationPresentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?
Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationReprint 527. Short range climate forecasting at the Hong Kong Observatory. and the application of APCN and other web site products
Reprint 527 Short range climate forecasting at the Hong Kong Observatory and the application of APCN and other web site products E.W.L. Ginn & K.K.Y. Shum Third APCN Working Group Meeting, Jeju Island,
More informationSummary. peninsula. likely over. parts of. Asia has. have now. season. There is. season, s that the. declining. El Niño. affect the. monsoon.
Eighth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-8) Colombo, Sri Lanka, 25-26 April 2016 Consensus Statement Summary Above-normal rainfalll is likely during the 2016 southwest monsoon season
More informationGPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office
GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016 Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) ensemble prediction system the source for Met Office monthly and seasonal forecasts uses a coupled model (atmosphere
More informationClimate Outlook and Review
Climate Outlook and Review September 2018 Author: Prof Roger C Stone Overview The European, UK, and US long-term climate models that focus on forecasting central Pacific sea surface temperatures are continuing
More information2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response
2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2013 - RMS Cat Response Season Outlook At the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, seasonal forecasts
More information1. Introduction. 3. Climatology of Genesis Potential Index. Figure 1: Genesis potential index climatology annual
C. ENSO AND GENESIS POTENTIAL INDEX IN REANALYSIS AND AGCMS Suzana J. Camargo, Kerry A. Emanuel, and Adam H. Sobel International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia Earth Institute, Palisades,
More informationINDIAN OCEAN STATE February 14, 2018 MJO INDEX
Digana Village,Sri Lanka/ Male,Maldives/ New York, USA Phone: (+94) 81-2376746 (SL), (+960) 77880(MV) Web: http://www.tropicalclimate.org/maldives Blog: http://fectmv.blogspot.com E-mail: fectmv@gmail.com
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More information2.6 Operational Climate Prediction in RCC Pune: Good Practices on Downscaling Global Products. D. S. Pai Head, Climate Prediction Group
SECOND WMO WORKSHOP ON OPERATIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION 30 May - 1 June 2018, Barcelona, Spain 2.6 Operational Climate Prediction in RCC Pune: Good Practices on Downscaling Global Products D. S. Pai Head,
More informationActivities of NOAA s NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Activities of NOAA s NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Jon Gottschalck and Dave DeWitt Improving Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting for Drought Preparedness May 27-29, 2015 San Diego,
More informationPredicting South Asian Monsoon through Spring Predictability Barrier
Predicting South Asian Monsoon through Spring Predictability Barrier Suryachandra A. Rao Associate Mission Director, Monsoon Mission Project Director, High Performance Computing Indian Institute of Tropical
More informationCLIMATE SIMULATION AND ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTABILITY OF RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA REGION USING THE CPTEC/COLA ATMOSPHERIC MODEL
CLIMATE SIMULATION AND ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTABILITY OF RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA REGION USING THE CPTEC/COLA ATMOSPHERIC MODEL JOSÉ A. MARENGO, IRACEMA F.A.CAVALCANTI, GILVAN SAMPAIO,
More informationNew Salinity Product in the Tropical Indian Ocean Estimated from OLR
New Salinity Product in the Tropical Indian Ocean Estimated from OLR Aquarius Bulusu Subrahmanyam and James J. O Brien Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University V.S.N. Murty
More informationSEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION David Walland Australian Bureau of Meteorology WMO RA-V Seminar on Climate Services Honiara, Solomon Islands, 1-4 November 2011 Overview Major climate Drivers in the region
More informationJuly Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016
July Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 Issued: 5 th July 2016 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK Forecast
More informationClimate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)
Forecast of 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Activity April 5, 2018 Summary CFAN s inaugural April seasonal forecast for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is based on systematic interactions among ENSO, stratospheric
More informationEL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO): RECENT EVOLUTION AND POSSIBILITIES FOR LONG RANGE FLOW FORECASTING IN THE BRAHMAPUTRA-JAMUNA RIVER
Global NEST Journal, Vol 8, No 3, pp 79-85, 2006 Copyright 2006 Global NEST Printed in Greece. All rights reserved EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO): RECENT EVOLUTION AND POSSIBILITIES FOR LONG RANGE
More informationTROPICAL CYCLONES IN A WARMER WORLD
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN A WARMER WORLD Dr Mark Saunders Benfield Hazard Research Centre Department of Space and Climate Physics University College London Workshop for Under 35s Reinsurance Group 14th October
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1857 Figure S1a shows significant inter-annual variability in seasonal SPA data with multi-decadal periods exhibiting positive and negative SPAs. A similar
More informationCHAPTER 2 DATA AND METHODS. Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all. Charles Babbage, circa 1850
CHAPTER 2 DATA AND METHODS Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all. Charles Babbage, circa 185 2.1 Datasets 2.1.1 OLR The primary data used in this study are the outgoing
More informationMultiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2
Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2 B. Huang 1,2, J. Zhu 1, L. Marx 1, J. L. Kinter 1,2 1 Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies 2 Department of Atmospheric,
More informationINDIAN OCEAN STATE February 28, 2018 MJO INDEX
Digana Village,Sri Lanka/ Male,Maldives/ New York, USA Phone: (+94) 81-2376746 (SL), (+960) 77880(MV) Web: http://www.tropicalclimate.org/maldives Blog: http://fectmv.blogspot.com E-mail: fectmv@gmail.com
More informationGlobal Ocean Monitoring: A Synthesis of Atmospheric and Oceanic Analysis
Extended abstract for the 3 rd WCRP International Conference on Reanalysis held in Tokyo, Japan, on Jan. 28 Feb. 1, 2008 Global Ocean Monitoring: A Synthesis of Atmospheric and Oceanic Analysis Yan Xue,
More informationOutline of 4 Lectures
Outline of 4 Lectures 1. Sept. 17, 2008: TC best track definition and datasets, global distribution of TCs; Review of history of meteorological satellites, introducing different orbits, scanning patterns,
More informationWork on on Seasonal Forecasting at at INM. Dynamical Downscaling of of System 3 And of of ENSEMBLE Global Integrations.
Work on on Seasonal Forecasting at at INM. Dynamical Downscaling of of System 3 And of of ENSEMBLE Global Integrations. 1 B. B. Orfila, Orfila, E. E. Diez Diez and and F. F. Franco Franco ÍNDEX Introduction
More informationSuper-Ensemble Statistical Forecasting of Monthly Precipitation over the Contiguous US, with Improvements from Ocean-Area Precipitation Predictors
Super-Ensemble Statistical Forecasting of Monthly Precipitation over the Contiguous US, with Improvements from Ocean-Area Precipitation Predictors Thomas Smith 1, Sam Shen 2, and Ralph Ferraro 1 1. NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
More informationClimate Outlook and Review Focus on sugar industry requirements. Issued 1 October Roger C Stone
Climate Outlook and Review Focus on sugar industry requirements Issued 1 October 2017 Roger C Stone University of Southern Queensland Document title 1 Overview A short La Nina-type pattern trying to develop
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño
More informationHow far in advance can we forecast cold/heat spells?
Sub-seasonal time scales: a user-oriented verification approach How far in advance can we forecast cold/heat spells? Laura Ferranti, L. Magnusson, F. Vitart, D. Richardson, M. Rodwell Danube, Feb 2012
More informationClimate Outlook for March August 2018
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for March August 2018 BUSAN, 26 February 2018 The synthesis of the latest model forecasts for March to August 2018 (MAMJJA) from the APEC Climate Center (APCC),
More informationENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
More informationInterpretation of Outputs from Numerical Prediction System
Interpretation of Outputs from Numerical Prediction System Hiroshi OHNO Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)/ Climate Prediction Division of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Procedure of Seasonal Forecast (1) 1.
More informationClimate Monitoring, Climate Watch Advisory. E. Rodríguez-Camino, AEMET
Climate Monitoring, Climate Watch Advisory E. Rodríguez-Camino, AEMET WMO International Workshop on Global Review of Regional Climate Outlook Forums, Ecuador, 5 7 September 2017 Outline Introduction. Elements
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationClimate Outlook for March August 2017
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for March August 2017 BUSAN, 24 February 2017 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for March to August 2017 (MAMJJA) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located
More informationIntroduction of products for Climate System Monitoring
Introduction of products for Climate System Monitoring 1 Typical flow of making one month forecast Textbook P.66 Observed data Atmospheric and Oceanic conditions Analysis Numerical model Ensemble forecast
More informationRCOF Review [Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the Gulf of Guinea region of Africa - PRESAGG] Status Report
RCOF Review 2017 [Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the Gulf of Guinea region of Africa - PRESAGG] Status Report Specific Climate features of concerned region This region typically covers the area below
More informationPRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response
PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2014 - RMS Event Response 2014 SEASON OUTLOOK The 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season saw the fewest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin
More information