Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment addressing the uncertainty of tsunami source
|
|
- Benedict Neil Newman
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment addressing the uncertainty of tsunami source Pacific Rim Forum 2017 January 23, 2017 Yuta Abe, ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corporation, Japan Copyright (c)2017 ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corporation
2 Overview 1. Introduction 2. Tsunami Source Model 3. Calculation Method 4. Tsunami Hazard Curve 5. Summary 1
3 Introduction The purpose of this presentation is to review the following two papers: H. Sugino, Y. Iwabuchi, N. Hashimoto, K. Matsusue, K. Ebisawa, H. Kameda and F. Imamura : The characterizing model for tsunami source regarding the inter-plate earthquake tsunami., Journal of JAEE, Vol.15, No.13, (original Japanese paper published: November, 2014) H. Sugino, Y. Iwabuchi, Y. Abe and F. Imamura : Effects of the model for scenario tsunami on the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment., Journal of JAEE, Vol.16, No.7, (original Japanese paper published: August, 2015) 2
4 Introduction Background Estimation of the tsunami design level of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Based on the largest magnitude of earthquakes in the past Establish basic models to reproduce the past tsunamis Addressing the uncertainty of possible tsunamis in future Change the model parameters (positions, strikes, dips,...) of basic models Select the model with the greatest in a water level at the target facility Exceeded by 2011 Tohoku Tsunami at Fukushima Daiichi NPP Advancement of the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assecement (PTHA) Revision of the maximum magnitude Characterization of the models for scenario tsunamis Take into account heterogeneous slip distributions in faults Revision of the occurrence probabilities of earthquakes Comparing between the old and new PTHA at Fukushima 3
5 Introduction Outline of PTHA procedure Sugino et al.,
6 Tsunami Source Model Old PTHA Reference to the long-term evaluation reports by the Earthquake Research Committee (2009) Target seismogenic zone is the plate boundary along the Japan Trench The seismogenic zone is divided into 8 segments Simultaneous rupture is considered only for the segments C and D Homogenic slip distribution G F A B C D E H Region Magnitude of Long-term evaluation Magnitude of Scenario source model Earthquake Type A Around M8.0 Mw 8.2, 8.3, 8.4 Reverse fault B No evaluation - - C Around M7.7 Mw 7.9, 8.0, 8.1 Reverse fault D Around M7.5 Mw 7.7, 7.8, 7.9 Reverse fault C+D Around M8.0 Mw 8.2, 8.3, 8.4 Simultaneous rapture E Around M7.4 Mw 7.6, 7.7, 7.8 Reverse fault F M6.7~M7.2 Mw 7.0, 7.3, 7.5 Reverse fault G No evaluation - - H Around Mt8.2 Mw 8.1, 8.2, 8.3 Tsunami earthquake H Around M8.2 Mw 8.4, 8.5, 8.6 Normal fault *Different two types of earthquake are set at Region H 5
7 Tsunami Source Model New PTHA Target seismogenic zone is the plate boundary along the Kuril - Japan Trench The seismogenic zone is divided into 22 segments By combining the 22 segments, 93 source areas with Mw ranging from 7.9 to 9.6 are produced Spatially heterogenic slip distribution More than one slip pattern for each source area Along the Kuril Trench 6
8 Tsunami Source Model Slip heterogeneity in New PTHA Specifying method of slip distributions Sugino et al.,
9 Tsunami Source Model Slip heterogeneity in New PTHA Example of spatially heterogeneous slip distributions A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 Sugino et al.,
10 Tsunami Source Model Occurrence Probabilities when past seismic activities are known Apply the occurrence probabilities calculated by the long-term evaluation The renewal process BPT model or the Poisson process are assumed when past seismic activities are unknown Calculated by an empirical equation G-R law or its extrapolation The regression analysis for the G-R law is based on the data of earthquakes observed in the seismogenic zone from Jan/1/1980 to Feb/28/2011 Sugino et al.,
11 Tsunami Source Model Comparizon between the old and new old model new model Target seismogenic zone along the Japan Trench along the Kuril-Japan Trench Simultaneous rupture of multiple segments combine the segments C and D combine the 22 segments Magnitude range Mw 7.0 Mw 8.6 Mw 7.9 Mw 9.6 Slip distribution homogenic (one source model for one source area) heterogeneous for lage earthquake (more than one source model for one source area) Occurrence probability based on the long-term evaluation report based on the long-term evaluation report or extrapolated by G-R law 10
12 Calculation Method Tsunami Source Model Initial Tsunami Profile Crustal Deformation Analysis By the method of Mansinha and Smylie (1971). Assume a seafloor deformation as a initial tsunami profile. Tsunami Propagation Analysis Based on the non-lieanr long-wave theory. Duration time for simulation is 6 hours after tsunami generation. Simulated Tsunami Wave Relative maximum tsunami height calculated by subtracting crustal deformation from tsunami height (T.P. 0m) 11
13 Calculation Method In order to remove effects of coastal structures, evaluation base point is set at a point on a depth contour of 150m off the east coast of Fukushima Prefecture Effects of coastal structures will be taken into account in fragility assessments Evaluation Base Point Sugino et al.,
14 Tsunami Hazard Curve Old PTHA Evaluation base point A B C D E H F G Dominant earthquake type is Simultaneous rupture type (Region C+D, Mw8.2~8.4) for AEF 10-3 ~10-4 Normal fault earthquake type (Region H) for AEF 10-5 ~
15 Tsunami Hazard Curve New PTHA Along the Kuril Trench Evaluation base point Dominant earthquake type is earthquakes occur along Japan Trench for AEF 10-3 earthquakes occur along Kuril-Japan Trench for AEF 10-4 ~
16 Tsunami Hazard Curve reproduced analysis of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami 6.9m reproduced analysis of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami 6.9m 2 5 times larger tsunami heights at the same AEF AEF at the tsunami height 6.9m estimated by the reproduced analysis of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami (Sugino et al., 2014) is Old PTHA : less than 10-6 New PTHA : 10-3 ~
17 Tsunami Hazard Curve Frequency Tsunami height relation in Kuril-Japan Trench earthquakes Frequency Tsunami source model having large magnitude and extra-large slip zone placed near the evaluation point Relative Max. Tsunami Height (m) Tsunami source model having small magnitude or extra-large slip zone placed far from the evaluation point 16
18 Summary The PTHA based on new models for scenario tsunami taking into account of the experience from the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami is condacted. By comparison wtih the old PTHA, The new PTHA resulted in a 2 to 5 times larger tsunami height. The AEF at the tsunami height of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami was roughly 10-3 times greater. The large difference in the tsunami hazard curve is mainly caused by The maximum value of magnitude which is greater than the largest magnitude in the past Considering simultaneous ruptures of Kuril and Japan Trench segments The new tsunami source models with heterogeneous slip distributions 17
THE CHARACTERIZING MODEL FOR TSUNAMI SOURCE REGARDING THE INTER-PLATE EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI
THE CHARACTERIZING MODEL FOR TSUNAMI SOURCE REGARDING THE INTER-PLATE EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI Hideharu SUGINO 1, Yoko IWABUCHI 2, Norihiko HASHIMOTO 3, Kazuyuki MATSUSUE 4, Katsumi EBISAWA 5, Hiroyuki KAMEDA
More informationInvestigation of mechanisms causing ground motion and tsunami due to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake at Nuclear Power Plant sites
Investigation of mechanisms causing ground motion and tsunami due to the 211 Tohoku Earthquake at Nuclear Power Plant sites Hideharu Sugino, Yoko Iwabuchi, Katsumi Ebisawa Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization
More informationSeismic Activity and Crustal Deformation after the 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake
J-RAPID Symposium March 6-7, 2013 Seismic Activity and Crustal Deformation after the 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake Y. Honkura Tokyo Institute of Technology Japan Science and Technology
More informationSeismic Issues for California's Nuclear Power Plants. Norman Abrahamson University of California, Berkeley
Seismic Issues for California's Nuclear Power Plants Norman Abrahamson University of California, Berkeley From UCERF 2 Seismic Setting for California s Nuclear Power Plants Major Offshore Strike-Slip Faults
More informationSEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR JAPAN AFTER THE 2011 TOHOKU-OKI MEGA-THRUST EARTHQUAKE (Mw9.0)
Proceedings of the International Symposium on Engineering Lessons Learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, March 1-4, 2012, Tokyo, Japan SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR JAPAN AFTER THE 2011 TOHOKU-OKI
More informationEarthquake Source. Kazuki Koketsu. Special Session: Great East Japan (Tohoku) Earthquake. Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo
2012/9/24 17:20-17:35 WCEE SS24.4 Special Session: Great East Japan (Tohoku) Earthquake Earthquake Source Kazuki Koketsu Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo 1 Names and features of the earthquake
More informationActual practices of seismic strong motion estimation at NPP sites
ANSN Regional Workshop on Site Selection and Evaluation for Nuclear Power Plants June 2010, Hanoi Vietnam IAEA/ISSC Actual practices of seismic strong motion estimation at NPP sites Yoshi. FUKUSHIMA (JNES)
More informationLessons from the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and the Asian tsunami
Lessons from the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and the Asian tsunami Kenji Satake National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology Outline 1. The largest earthquake in the last 40 years 2. Tsunami
More informationRevision of the AESJ Standard for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (2) Seismic Hazard Evaluation
Revision of the AESJ Standard for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (2) Seismic Hazard Evaluation Katsumi Ebisawa a, Katsuhiro Kamae b, Tadashi Annaka c, Hideaki Tsutsumi d And Atsushi Onouchi e a
More informationSMR/ May Simulation Analyses of Tsunami caused by Chilean and Nihon-Kai Chubu Earthquakes at Nuclear Power Plant Sites in Japan
SMR/1839-2 Workshop on the Physics of Tsunami, Hazard Assessment Methods and Disaster Risk Management (Theories and Practices for Implementing Proactive Countermeasures) 14-18 May 2007 Simulation Analyses
More informationAVERAGE AND VARIATION OF FOCAL MECHANISM AROUND TOHOKU SUBDUCTION ZONE
13 th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering Vancouver, B.C., Canada August 1-6, 24 Paper No. 414 AVERAGE AND VARIATION OF FOCAL MECHANISM AROUND TOHOKU SUBDUCTION ZONE Shunroku YAMAMOTO 1 Naohito
More informationNew Seismic Activity Model of Large Earthquakes along Nankai Trough for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps
New Seismic Activity Model of Large Earthquakes along Nankai Trough for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps Toshihiko Okumura (Shimizu Corp.) Hiroyuki Fujiwara (NIED) Plate Tectonics around Japan Pacific
More informationPreliminary Study of Possible Tsunami Hazards in Taiwan Region
Preliminary Study of Possible Tsunami Hazards in Taiwan Region Xiaoming Wang and Philip L.-F. Liu Cornell University (First Draft on May 25 2006) (Second Draft on June 1 2006) (Final Update on June 8 2006)
More informationScenario Earthquake Shaking Maps in Japan
1 Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps in Japan Nobuyuki Morikawa National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), JAPAN Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps (SESMs) The shaking maps
More informationAN OVERVIEW AND GUIDELINES FOR PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING
CO 2 TRACCS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP Bucharest, 2 September, 2012 AN OVERVIEW AND GUIDELINES FOR PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING M. Semih YÜCEMEN Department of Civil Engineering and Earthquake Studies
More informationForecasting Future Earthquakes from Tsunami Deposits and Simulation
Forecasting Future Earthquakes from Tsunami Deposits and Simulation Kenji Satake Earthquake Research Institute The University of Tokyo satake@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp Contents 1. Earthquake Recurrence and Forecast
More informationCOMPARE OF THE EMPIRICAL AND NUMERICAL TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT RESULTS FOR THE EAST COAST OF KOREA. Min Kyu Kim 1, In-kil Choi 2
COMPARE OF THE EMPIRICAL AND NUMERICAL TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT RESULTS FOR THE EAST COAST OF KOREA Min Kyu Kim 1, In-kil Choi 2 1 Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute: 989-111 Daedeok-Daero Youseong
More informationEffect of the Emperor seamounts on trans-oceanic propagation of the 2006 Kuril Island earthquake tsunami
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L02611, doi:10.1029/2007gl032129, 2008 Effect of the Emperor seamounts on trans-oceanic propagation of the 2006 Kuril Island earthquake tsunami S. Koshimura, 1 Y.
More informationREPORT ON THE TOHOKU AREA PASIFIC OFFSHORE EARTHQUAKE
REPORT ON THE TOHOKU AREA PASIFIC OFFSHORE EARTHQUAKE GENERAL PERSPECTIVE The Highest Magnitude Ever Recorded The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (hereafter, the 2011 Tohoku- Pacific Earthquake
More informationNUMERICAL SIMULATIONS FOR TSUNAMI FORECASTING AT PADANG CITY USING OFFSHORE TSUNAMI SENSORS
NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS FOR TSUNAMI FORECASTING AT PADANG CITY USING OFFSHORE TSUNAMI SENSORS Setyoajie Prayoedhie Supervisor: Yushiro FUJII MEE10518 Bunichiro SHIBAZAKI ABSTRACT We conducted numerical simulations
More informationChallenges of Applying Ground Motion Simulation to Earthquake Engineering
Challenges of Applying Ground Motion Simulation to Earthquake Engineering Methodology of simulating ground motions from crustal earthquake and mega-thrust subduction earthquakes: application to the 2016
More informationPeter Sammonds Professor of Geophysics
Peter Sammonds Professor of Geophysics Director, UCL Institute for Risk & Disaster Reduction NERC Strategic Advisor The precautionary principle: Natural hazards and critical infrastructure Acknowledge
More informationMechanism of tsunami generation,propagation and runup -sharing experiences with Japanese
Mechanism of tsunami generation,propagation and runup -sharing experiences with Japanese Mechanism of tsunami generation Predicting the propagation, runup and inundation of tsunamis Near and far-field
More informationEarthquakes and seismic hazard in Sweden
Earthquakes and seismic hazard in Sweden Björn Lund, Roland Roberts & Reynir Bödvarsson Uppsala University Outline Nordic and Swedish seismicity Comparison to plate boundary seismicity in Japan. Extrapolation
More informationBuilding up Seismsic Models for Ground Motion Prediction of Taiwan: Problems and Challenges
Building up Seismsic Models for Ground Motion Prediction of Taiwan: Problems and Challenges Kuo-Fong Ma 馬國鳳 Institute of Geophysics National Central University What approaches we can make toward a reliable
More informationKNOWLEDGE NOTE 5-1. Risk Assessment and Hazard Mapping. CLUSTER 5: Hazard and Risk Information and Decision Making. Public Disclosure Authorized
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized KNOWLEDGE NOTE 5-1 CLUSTER 5: Hazard and Risk Information and Decision Making Risk Assessment
More informationVertical to Horizontal (V/H) Ratios for Large Megathrust Subduction Zone Earthquakes
Vertical to Horizontal (V/H) Ratios for Large Megathrust Subduction Zone Earthquakes N.J. Gregor Consultant, Oakland, California, USA N.A. Abrahamson University of California, Berkeley, USA K.O. Addo BC
More informationProbabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis. Hong Kie Thio AECOM, Los Angeles
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis Hong Kie Thio AECOM, Los Angeles May 18, 2015 Overview Introduction Types of hazard analysis Similarities and differences to seismic hazard Methodology Elements o
More informationCoseismic slip model
Figure 3 - Preliminary highly smoothed model of coseismic slip for the 11 March UCL Institute for Risk & Disaster Reduction Magnitude 9.0 (JMA scale) earthquake Occurred at 02:46:23 pm local time near
More informationPreliminary slip model of M9 Tohoku earthquake from strongmotion stations in Japan - an extreme application of ISOLA code.
Preliminary slip model of M9 Tohoku earthquake from strongmotion stations in Japan - an extreme application of ISOLA code. J. Zahradnik 1), F. Gallovic 1), E. Sokos 2) G-A. Tselentis 2) 1) Charles University
More informationLETTER Earth Planets Space, 56, , 2004
LETTER Earth Planets Space, 56, 353 357, 2004 Deep seismic activities preceding the three large shallow earthquakes off south-east Hokkaido, Japan the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, the 1993 Kushiro-oki
More informationTsunami physics research
support of improved measurement technology and the design of optimal tsunami monitoring networks Tsunami physics research implementation of improved models to increase the speed and accuracy of operational
More informationAnnual Report for Research Work in the fiscal year 2005
JST Basic Research Programs C R E S T (Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology) Annual Report for Research Work in the fiscal year 2005 Research Area : High Performance Computing for Multi-scale
More informationDevelopment of Evaluation Method for Probabilistic Seismic and Tsunami Hazards Considering Events Superimposition. Masato Nakajima 1, Yasuki Ohtori 2
Development of Evaluation Method for Probabilistic Seismic and Tsunami Hazards Considering Events Superimposition Masato Nakajima 1, Yasuki Ohtori 2 1 Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry,
More informationSendai Earthquake NE Japan March 11, Some explanatory slides Bob Stern, Dave Scholl, others updated March
Sendai Earthquake NE Japan March 11, 2011 Some explanatory slides Bob Stern, Dave Scholl, others updated March 14 2011 Earth has 11 large plates and many more smaller ones. Plates are 100-200 km thick
More informationTsunami fragility assessment framework for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants
Tsunami fragility assessment framework for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants Hideki KAIDA, Naoto KIHARA, Toshiaki SAKAI and Yasuki OHTORI 4 Central Research Institute of Electric Power
More informationRiskscape module Documentation: Inundation Modelling in Bay of Plenty. X. Wang C. Mueller
Riskscape module Documentation: Inundation Modelling in Bay of Plenty X. Wang C. Mueller CONTENTS 1.0 GENERAL INFORMATION... 2 1.1 SITE OF STUDY... 5 1.2 SOURCE SCENARIOS... 5 1.3 NUMERICAL MODEL... 5
More informationSTUDY ON APPROPRIATE MODELING OF TSUNAMIS IN MALAYSIA FOR RISK EVALUATION
STUDY ON APPROPRIATE MODELING OF TSUNAMIS IN MALAYSIA FOR RISK EVALUATION Zaty Aktar binti Mokhtar* Supervisor: Fumihiko Imamura** MEE06025 Shunichi Koshimura** ABSTRACT In order to design a tsunami warning
More informationA Study on the Risk Assessment of Emergency Supplies. Transportation Routes Considering Scenario Earthquakes
ORIGINAL ARTICLE A Study on the Risk Assessment of Emergency Supplies Transportation s Considering Scenario Earthquakes Kazuaki Torisawa 1, Harumi Yashiro 2, Sei ichiro Fukushima 3*, Satoshi Kina 4 1 Kajima
More informationTsunami waveform analyses of the 2006 underthrust and 2007 outer-rise Kurile earthquakes
Author(s) 2008. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Advances in Geosciences Tsunami waveform analyses of the 2006 underthrust and 2007 outer-rise Kurile earthquakes Y. Tanioka 1, Y.
More informationTsunami potential and modeling
Tsunami potential and modeling GEORGE PRIEST OREGON DEPT. OF GEOLOGY AND MINERAL INDUSTRIES NEWPORT COASTAL FIELD OFFICE April 7, 2012 GeoPRISMS Cascadia Workshop, Portland, Oregon What creates most uncertainty
More informationNUMERICAL SIMULATION AS GUIDANCE IN MAKING TSUNAMI HAZARD MAP FOR LABUAN ISLAND
NUMERICAL SIMULATION AS GUIDANCE IN MAKING TSUNAMI HAZARD MAP FOR LABUAN ISLAND MOHD RIDZUAN bin Adam Supervisor: Fumihiko IMAMURA MEE09199 ABSTRACT At the northeast end of the South China Sea, tsunamis
More informationEarthquake Hazards. Tsunami
Earthquake Hazards Tsunami Review: What is an earthquake? Earthquake is the vibration (shaking) and/or displacement of the ground produced by the sudden release of energy. The point inside the Earth where
More informationEarthquakes and Tsunamis
Earthquakes and Tsunamis Kenji Satake Earthquake Research Institute University of Tokyo 1 Part I 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami 2 Fukushima Dai ichi NPP accident Earthquake ground motion Reactors automatically
More informationEARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS FOR SUBDUCTION ZONE EVENTS CAUSING TSUNAMIS IN AND AROUND THE PHILIPPINES
EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS FOR SUBDUCTION ZONE EVENTS CAUSING TSUNAMIS IN AND AROUND THE PHILIPPINES Joan Cruz SALCEDO Supervisor: Tatsuhiko HARA MEE09186 ABSTRACT We have made a set of earthquake source
More informationEarthquake Hazards. Tsunami
Earthquake Hazards Tsunami Measuring Earthquakes Two measurements that describe the power or strength of an earthquake are: Intensity a measure of the degree of earthquake shaking at a given locale based
More informationStudy on Quantification Methodology of accident sequences for Tsunami Induced by Seismic Events.
Study on Quantification Methodology of accident sequences for Tsunami Induced by Seismic Events 1 Keisuke Usui, 2 Hitoshi Muta, 3 Ken Muramatsu 1 Graduate Student, Corporative Major in Nuclear Energy:
More informationEarthquake and Tsunami Modeling in Japan. Renee Lee Product Manager, RMS
Earthquake and Tsunami Modeling in Japan Renee Lee Product Manager, RMS RMS JAPAN EARTHQUAKE MODEL HISTORY 2011 GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE M9.0 SCOPE OF JAPAN EARTHQUAKE MODEL UPDATE (2012) Event Rate
More informationRegional Workshop on Essential Knowledge of Site Evaluation Report for Nuclear Power Plants.
Regional Workshop on Essential Knowledge of Site Evaluation Report for Nuclear Power Plants. Development of seismotectonic models Ramon Secanell Kuala Lumpur, 26-30 August 2013 Overview of Presentation
More informationChecking of Seismic and Tsunami Hazard for Coastal NPP of Chinese Continent
Checking of Seismic and Tsunami Hazard for Coastal NPP of Chinese Continent Chang Xiangdong (Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center, MEP, China) 2012.Sep 1. Introduction After Japanese Fukushima nuclear accident
More informationCrustal deformation by the Southeast-off Kii Peninsula Earthquake
Crustal deformation by the Southeast-off Kii Peninsula Earthquake 51 Crustal deformation by the Southeast-off Kii Peninsula Earthquake Tetsuro IMAKIIRE, Shinzaburo OZAWA, Hiroshi YARAI, Takuya NISHIMURA
More informationA GLOBAL SURGE OF GREAT EARTHQUAKES FROM AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CASCADIA. Thorne Lay, University of California Santa Cruz
A GLOBAL SURGE OF GREAT EARTHQUAKES FROM 2004-2014 AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CASCADIA Thorne Lay, University of California Santa Cruz Last 10 yrs - 18 great earthquakes: rate 1.8/yr; rate over preceding century
More informationFukushima: some observations
Fukushima: some observations Eleventh Bieleschweig Workshop, Bielefeld, 3-4 August 2011 The Fukushima Accident and Systems Prone to EUE Robin E Bloomfield Adelard LLP and CSR City University London reb@adelard.com
More informationSOURCE INVERSION AND INUNDATION MODELING TECHNOLOGIES FOR TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT, CASE STUDY: 2001 PERU TSUNAMI
Paper No. TS-4-1 SOURCE INVERSION AND INUNDATION MODELING TECHNOLOGIES FOR TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT, CASE STUDY: 2001 PERU TSUNAMI Bruno Adriano 1, Shunichi Koshimura 2 and Yushiro Fujii 3 ABSTRACT The
More informationDamage Estimation of the Road Bridge Structure Using the Seismic Hazard map for BCM in Hokkaido, Japan
Damage Estimation of the Road Bridge Structure Using the Seismic Hazard map for BCM in Hokkaido, Japan T. Sato & H. Nishi Civil Engineerring Research Institute for Cold Region, PWRI,Japan T. Ikeda & Y.
More informationTHE 2011 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN. VSU Lyuben Karavelov, Sofia, Bulgaria. Key words: Tohoku earthquake, strong ground motion, damage
THE 2011 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN Radan Ivanov 1 VSU Lyuben Karavelov, Sofia, Bulgaria Abstract: This earthquake which occurred on March 11, 2011, had a magnitude of 9.0, which places it as the fourth
More informationSource modeling of hypothetical Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai, Japan, earthquake and strong ground motion simulation using the empirical Green s functions
Source modeling of hypothetical Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai, Japan, earthquake and strong ground motion simulation using the empirical Green s functions Y. Ishii & K. Dan Ohsaki Research Institute, Inc., Tokyo
More informationSpecial edition paper Development of Shinkansen Earthquake Impact Assessment System
Development of Shinkansen Earthquake Impact Assessment System Makoto Shimamura*, Keiichi Yamamura* Assuring safety during earthquakes is a very important task for the Shinkansen because the trains operate
More informationFukushima: What don't we know?
Fukushima: What don't we know? BY RODNEY C. EWING AND JEROEN RITSEMA 3 MAY 2011 On March 11, when news of the terrible events at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant began to emerge, so did the contrasts:
More informationYo Fukutani Anawat Suppasri Fumihiko Imamura
DOI 1.17/s477-14-966-4 ORIGINAL PAPER Stochastic analysis and uncertainty assessment of tsunami wave height using a random source parameter model that targets a Tohoku-type earthquake fault Yo Fukutani
More informationEarthquake Hazards. Tsunami
Earthquake Hazards Tsunami Review: What is an earthquake? Earthquake is the vibration (shaking) and/or displacement of the ground produced by the sudden release of energy. The point inside the Earth where
More informationACTIVITIES OF THE HEADQUARTERS FOR EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH PROMOTION
Journal of Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering, Vol.4, No.3 (Special Issue), 2004 ACTIVITIES OF THE HEADQUARTERS FOR EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH PROMOTION Sadanori HIGASHI 1 1 Member of JAEE, Earthquake
More informationStudy megathrust creep to understand megathrust earthquakes
1 Study megathrust creep to understand megathrust earthquakes Kelin Wang Pacific Geoscience Centre, Geological Survey of Canada, kelin.wang@canada.ca Introduction Once upon a time, there was a belief that
More informationFault Specific, Dynamic Rupture Scenarios for Strong Ground Motion Prediction
Fault Specific, Dynamic Rupture Scenarios for Strong Ground Motion Prediction H. Sekiguchi Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan Blank Line 9 pt Y. Kase Active Fault and Earthquake
More informationAmplification of Tsunami Heights by Delayed Rupture of Great Earthquakes along the Nankai Trough
Amplification of Tsunami Heights by Delayed Rupture of Great Earthquakes along the Nankai Trough Kentaro Imai 1,2, Kenji Satake 2 and Takashi Furumura 1,2 1 Center for Integrated Disaster Information Research,
More informationJapan Seismic Hazard Information Station
Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station (J-SHIS) Hiroyuki Fujiwara National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) Background of the Project Headquarters for Earthquake Research
More informationMagnitude 8.3 SEA OF OKHOTSK
A powerful earthquake in Russia's Far East was felt as far away as Moscow, about 7,000 kilometers (4,400 miles) west of the epicenter, but no casualties or damage were reported. The epicenter was in the
More informationHitoshi Hirose (1), and Kazuro Hirahara (2) Abstract. Introduction
Three dimensional simulation for the earthquake cycle at a subduction zone based on a rate- and state-dependent friction law: Insight into a finiteness and a variety of dip-slip earthquakes Hitoshi Hirose
More informationEXAMINATION ON CONSECUTIVE RUPTURING OF TWO CLOSE FAULTS BY DYNAMIC SIMULATION
EXAMINATION ON CONSECUTIVE RUPTURING OF TWO CLOSE FAULTS BY DYNAMIC SIMULATION M. Muto 1, K. Dan 1, H. Torita 1, Y. Ohashi 1, and Y. Kase 2 1 Ohsaki Research Institute, Inc., Tokyo, Japan 2 National Institute
More informationDCPP Seismic FAQ s Geosciences Department 08/04/2011 GM1) What magnitude earthquake is DCPP designed for?
GM1) What magnitude earthquake is DCPP designed for? The new design ground motions for DCPP were developed after the discovery of the Hosgri fault. In 1977, the largest magnitude of the Hosgri fault was
More informationPROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS AT GROUND SURFACE IN JAPAN BASED ON SITE EFFECTS ESTIMATED FROM OBSERVED STRONG-MOTION RECORDS
13 th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering Vancouver, B.C., Canada August 1-6, 2004 Paper No. 3488 PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS AT GROUND SURFACE IN JAPAN BASED ON SITE EFFECTS ESTIMATED FROM
More informationSupplementary Materials for
advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/4/3/eaao4915/dc1 Supplementary Materials for Global variations of large megathrust earthquake rupture characteristics This PDF file includes: Lingling Ye, Hiroo
More informationChapter 2. Earthquake and Damage
EDM Report on the Chi-Chi, Taiwan Earthquake of September 21, 1999 2.1 Earthquake Fault 2.1.1 Tectonic Background The island of Taiwan is located in the complex junction where the Eurasian and Philippine
More informationQuantitative Assessment of Epistemic Uncertainties in Tsunami Hazard Effects on Building Risk Assessments
geosciences Article Quantitative Assessment of Epistemic Uncertainties in Tsunami Hazard Effects on Building Risk Assessments Yo Fukutani 1, * ID, Anawat Suppasri 2 Fumihiko Imamura 2 1 College of Science
More informationTSUNAMI CHARACTERISTICS OF OUTER-RISE EARTHQUAKES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA - A CASE STUDY FOR THE 2016 NICARAGUA EVENT-
TSUNAMI CHARACTERISTICS OF OUTER-RISE EARTHQUAKES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA - A CASE STUDY FOR THE 2016 NICARAGUA EVENT- Amilcar Cabrera Supervisor: Yuichiro TANIOKA MEE16718 ABSTRACT Nicaragua
More informationEARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN
EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN Dr Ilaria Mosca 1 and Dr Natalya Silacheva 2 1 British Geological Survey, Edinburgh (UK) imosca@nerc.ac.uk 2 Institute of Seismology, Almaty (Kazakhstan) silacheva_nat@mail.ru
More informationlog 4 0.7m log m Seismic Analysis of Structures by TK Dutta, Civil Department, IIT Delhi, New Delhi. Module 1 Seismology Exercise Problems :
Seismic Analysis of Structures by TK Dutta, Civil Department, IIT Delhi, New Delhi. Module Seismology Exercise Problems :.4. Estimate the probabilities of surface rupture length, rupture area and maximum
More informationA possible mechanism of M 9 earthquake generation cycles in the area of repeating M 7 8 earthquakes surrounded by aseismic sliding
LETTER Earth Planets Space, 63, 773 777, 2011 A possible mechanism of M 9 earthquake generation cycles in the area of repeating M 7 8 earthquakes surrounded by aseismic sliding Takane Hori 1 and Shin ichi
More informationJAMSTEC Marine Geophysical Projects for Researches on Subduction Cycles and Deformation
JAMSTEC Marine Geophysical Projects for Researches on Subduction Cycles and Deformation Shuichi Kodaira Research Center for Earthquake and Tsunami JAMSTEC JAMSTEC Marine Geophysical Projects Motivation:
More informationEarthquakes. Earthquake Magnitudes 10/1/2013. Environmental Geology Chapter 8 Earthquakes and Related Phenomena
Environmental Geology Chapter 8 Earthquakes and Related Phenomena Fall 2013 Northridge 1994 Kobe 1995 Mexico City 1985 China 2008 Earthquakes Earthquake Magnitudes Earthquake Magnitudes Richter Magnitude
More informationMagnitude 7.0 NEW CALEDONIA
A magnitude 7.0 earthquake has occurred 82km ENE of Maré Island, the secondlargest of the Loyalty Islands in the archipelago of New Caledonia. The initial report of the magnitude and shallow 10km depth
More informationGeotechnical Earthquake Engineering
Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering by Dr. Deepankar Choudhury Humboldt Fellow, JSPS Fellow, BOYSCAST Fellow Professor Department of Civil Engineering IIT Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076, India. Email: dc@civil.iitb.ac.in
More informationSlip distributions of the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes including the horizontal movement effect on tsunami generation
Slip distributions of the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes including the horizontal movement effect on tsunami generation Toshitaka Baba Research Program for Plate Dynamics, Institute for Frontier
More informationSynthetic Seismicity Models of Multiple Interacting Faults
Synthetic Seismicity Models of Multiple Interacting Faults Russell Robinson and Rafael Benites Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, Box 30368, Lower Hutt, New Zealand (email: r.robinson@gns.cri.nz).
More information22 Bulletin of the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, Vol.59 December, 2011 Fig. 1 Crustal deformation (horizontal) associated with the 2011 o
The Crustal Deformation and Fault Model of the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake 21 The Crustal Deformation and Fault Model of the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake Tetsuro
More informationSan Andreas Movie Can It Happen?
San Andreas Movie Can It Happen? Learning Objectives (LO) Lecture 14: Faults and Quakes Read: Chapter 10 and 11 Homework #12 due Thursday 12pm What we ll learn today:! 1. Compare strike-slip to dip-slip
More informationModeling of the 2011 Tohoku-oki. oki Tsunami and it s s impacts to Hawaii
WAVES 11, KONA HAWAI`I Modeling of the 2011 Tohoku-oki oki Tsunami and it s s impacts to Hawaii Yoshiki Yamazaki 1, Volker Roeber 1, Kwok Fai Cheung 1 and Thorne Lay 2 1 Department of Ocean and Resources
More informationTakashi Kumamoto, Masatoshi Fujita, Hideaki Goto, and Takashi Nakata
Chapter 1 Examination of the Correlation Between Tectonic Landforms and Shallow Subsurface Structural Datasets for the Estimation of Seismic Source Faults Takashi Kumamoto, Masatoshi Fujita, Hideaki Goto,
More informationSource Characteristics of Large Outer Rise Earthquakes in the Pacific Plate
Source Characteristics of Large Outer Rise Earthquakes in the Pacific Plate T. Sasatani, N. Takai, M. Shigefuji, and Y. Miyahara Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan W. Kawabata Electric Power Development
More informationS. Toda, S. Okada, D. Ishimura, and Y. Niwa International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Japan
The first surface-rupturing earthquake in 20 years on a HERP major active fault: Mw=6.2 2014 Nagano, Japan, event along the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line is not characteristic S. Toda, S. Okada, D. Ishimura,
More informationScenario Earthquake Shaking Maps in Japan
Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps in Japan Nobuyuki Morikawa National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), JAPAN Example of SESMs The Kego fault zone (south-east part) The
More informationThe Current Activities of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion Concerning Tonankai/Nankai Earthquakes
The Current Activities of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion Concerning Tonankai/Nankai Earthquakes ISOGAI Keisuke Director of Earthquake Research Division, Research and Development Bureau,
More informationDifferentiating earthquake tsunamis from other sources; how do we tell the difference?
Differentiating earthquake tsunamis from other sources; how do we tell the difference? David Tappin (1), Stephan Grilli (2), Jeffrey Harris (2), Timothy Masterlark (3), James Kirby (4), Fengyan Shi Shi
More informationTSUNAMI PROPAGATION AND INUNDATION MODELINGS ALONG SOUTH-EAST COAST OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA
TSUNAMI PROPAGATION AND INUNDATION MODELINGS ALONG SOUTH-EAST COAST OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA Martin WAREK Supervisor: Yushiro FUJII MEE12620 Bunichiro SHIBAZAKI ABSTRACT This study covers tsunami generation,
More informationScenario Earthquakes for Korean Nuclear Power Plant Site Considering Active Faults
Transactions of the 7 th International Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology (SMiRT 7) Prague, Czech Republic, August 7 22, 2003 Paper # K03-2 Scenario Earthquakes for Korean Nuclear
More information2. Tsunami Source Details
2. Tsunami Source Details The Northland area faces a range of potential tsunamigenic sources that include several local and distant fault systems and underwater landslides. A NIWA study (Goff et al. 2006)
More informationJMA Tsunami Warning Services. Takeshi KOIZUMI Senior Coordinator for International Earthquake and Tsunami Information Japan Meteorological Agency
JMA Tsunami Warning Services Takeshi KOIZUMI Senior Coordinator for International Earthquake and Tsunami Information Japan Meteorological Agency Tectonic Setting of Japan (Headquarters for Earthquake Research
More informationTSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST OF PERU USING NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS FOR THE 1974, 1966 AND 1746 EARTHQUAKES
TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST OF PERU USING NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS FOR THE 1974, 1966 AND 1746 EARTHQUAKES Sheila Yauri Supervisor: Yushiro FUJII MEE10521 Bunichiro SHIBAZAKI ABSTRACT
More informationEffect of an outer-rise earthquake on seismic cycle of large interplate earthquakes estimated from an instability model based on friction mechanics
Effect of an outer-rise earthquake on seismic cycle of large interplate earthquakes estimated from an instability model based on friction mechanics Naoyuki Kato (1) and Tomowo Hirasawa (2) (1) Geological
More informationEarthquakes in Canada
Earthquakes in Canada Maurice Lamontagne, Ph.D., ing. Geological Survey of Canada Natural Resources Canada 1 What is an Earthquake? P S P S P PS 2 2 Movement on a fault plane causes vibrations The larger
More information