Climate Dynamics (PCC 587): Feedbacks & Clouds
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1 Climate Dynamics (PCC 587): Feedbacks & Clouds DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DAY 6:
2 Feedbacks Climate forcings change global temperatures directly E.g., solar changes, volcanoes, aerosols, greenhouse gases We ll discuss these in more detail next lecture Climate feedbacks respond to temperature changes but also change temperature themselves We ve discussed many climate feedbacks already Water vapor feedback is confidently positive Lapse rate feedback is confidently negative
3 Ice-Albedo Feedback Warming à ice melting à dark open ocean visible à more warming Similar feedback is present for snow (revealing darker land surfaces below) Very important for local Arctic temperatures Not nearly as strong as water vapor feedback in global importance
4 Cloud Feedbacks Clouds: suspended liquid water droplets or ice crystals in air Don t confuse clouds (liquid or solid) with water vapor (a gas) Essentially, if you can see it, it s a liquid/solid Clouds happen when humid air cools (often due to rising motion) Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are necessary too: small particles the liquid or ice can stick to Convective clouds growing over Tiger Mountain (Prof. Dale Durran)
5 Clouds Condensed water droplets or frozen crystals suspended in air Cloud formation happens when Moist air cools (so saturation is reached) Often by lifting Cloud condensation nuclei (stuff that droplets/ice can stick to) help the process Without CCN, supersaturation can occur
6 UFO clouds! (actually lenticular clouds, formed from lee waves downwind of mountains)
7 Cloud Effects Two opposite effects: Reflecting solar radiation (cooling) Based on their thickness Greenhouse effect (warming) Can either have warming or cooling effect depending on type!
8 Longwave Effects Clouds emit essentially like blackbodies in the infrared: E = σt 4 High clouds (cold tops): Very small OLR Trap heat effectively Large greenhouse effect Low clouds (warm tops): OLR isn t changed much Small greenhouse effect
9 Low level clouds -high albedo -not much greenhouse effect -net cooling effect Low clouds near Baja California Today
10 More low level clouds Guadalupe, Mexico
11 Open cell vs closed cell low clouds
12 Upper level clouds (cirrus) - optically thin (not much scattering), but good longwave absorbers - net warming effect
13 Cirrus around the world Modis satellite
14 Deep, thick clouds: cool from albedo effect and warm from greenhouse
15 Deep convection in the tropics hitting the tropopause
16 Cloud Fraction Thick cloud fraction on Earth: CloudSat & CALIOP data from Jen Kay
17 Cloud Fraction All cloud fraction: CloudSat & CALIOP data from Jen Kay
18 High Cloud Fraction High clouds (above 400 mbar) CloudSat & CALIOP data from Jen Kay
19 Low Cloud Fraction Low cloud fraction CloudSat & CALIOP data from Jen Kay
20 Cloud Radiative Forcing Effect of clouds on longwave and shortwave radiation Kay et al 2012
21 Net Cloud Radiative Forcing Shortwave plus longwave:
22 Total Cloud Forcing Cloud forcing = Average value cloud free value OLR: +26 W/m2 Solar: -47 W/m2 Net: -21 W/m2 Clouds have net cooling effect on climate
23 Cloud Feedbacks? If low clouds disappear w/ global warming, cloud feedback would be positive If instead low clouds increase => negative feedback High clouds may change too High clouds getting higher (due to tropopause rise) is a robust positive cloud feedback Clouds can be directly changed by humans though too
24 We have an effect on clouds (via CCN) Ship tracks: aerosols causing water droplets to form more easily, be smaller, not precipitate out as easily
25 Ship tracks: Key evidence that there is anthropogenic influence on cloudiness
26 Contrails: clouds formed due to water vapor and CCN in aircraft emissions
27 Contrails trap longwave and reflect shortwave: Reduce diurnal temperature variations
28 Sept 12-14, 2001: all aircraft grounded (below are from President Bush s flight and escorting aircraft) Over the next 3 days, days warmed slightly and nights cooled, Increasing diurnal temperature range by 1.1 C
29 Contrail Effects Net contrail effects: Small warming effect on climate (around o.01 W/m2 of radiative forcing) Nighttime flights are especially important for warming (25% of flights, 60-80% of warming), as are flights in winter (22% of flights, 50% of forcing)
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