Examples of the use of operational WTG data

Transcription

1 Examples of the use of operational WTG data Mark Žagar, Ph.D., Specialist Plant Siting & Forecasting Vestas Wind Systems A/S [14 April 2016, EWEA Technology Workshop, Bilbao]

2 Vestas in brief 20,000 Around 20,000 employees worldwide, more than 30 years of experience with wind energy 29,000 Real-time monitoring of over 27,000 turbines 55, b More than 54,000 turbines in 73 countries on all continents 6.9 billion EUR revenue in

3 Data as decision drivers start with the best, not with a guess! Unique Global Mesoscale Climate Library + More than turbines online + More than turbines installed + More than 6500 met masts + Performance and diagnostics data Smart database and supercomputer resources

4 Observe, Understand, Predict WTG event Under-performing Alarms/shut-downs Often no other data available Modelled data (NWP, CFD, ) provides meteorological context o Validate, improve models o Plan and / or adjust plant operations o Identify and fill gaps in measurement sensors Connect Physics Statistics Experience Methods, Algorithms: Real-time diagnostics Future prediction (pre- and post-sales)

5 De-icing gain calculation Example 1 Schematic de-icing system application IEA Task19 Icing terminology and schematics

6 Modelled ice accretion and observed production De-icing Example 1 De-icing Often the power!= 0 during an icing event. The question is: how much would a WTG produce without the de-icing system

7 Relative Power Curve during Icing (And a bit post) Observations from Icing Periods, from trigger to end and 100hrs more. Data here from 21 turbines V112, 3 sites (lots of events) Example 1

8 Relative Power Curve during Icing (And a bit post) Additive Smoothers = f1(wind speed) + f2( temp) +f3(sun)+ f4( z_ice ) R^2 = 43% and MAE = 12% Example 1

9 Relative Power Curve during Icing (And a bit post) Random Forrest = mean( Ensemble of Regression Trees ) R^2 = 92% and MAE = 4% Example 1

10 De-icing gain calculation Example 1 Climate Library WTG Data Relative Power Scoring Model WTG Data With Relative Power DeIcing Gain Algorithm De-icing system performance dashboard. Updated every month.

11 Pre-sales production loss estimate Example 1 Method verification against the observed production loss

12 Downslope storm, hydraulic jump Example 2 30 April 2013 Extreme Yaw Error alarm In the order of appearance, ~275 events, 90 minutes Page Up Page Down, to repeat

13 Downslope storm, hydraulic jump 30 April 2013 Extreme Yaw Error alarm In the order of appearance, ~275 events 90 minutes Note the retreating edge, and alarms Example 2 Page Up Page Down, to repeat

14 Downslope storm, hydraulic jump Limits of microscale dx=100m Example 2 Holton, 1992

15 Sudden wind changes Example 2 Frequency of sudden wind speed changes indicates: - hydraulic jumps - thunderstorms

16 Downslope storm, hydraulic jump Example 2 dx=100m Data from nacelle anemometers overlaid Power of real + modelled data: Events explained, model validated

17 VestasOnline PowerForecast. IntraDay! Example 3 Setup phase: 1. Data Feed: 2. Downscaling to turbine level 3. Transfer Function Wind Power Forecast model Real time and stable SCADA data from turbines or other measurement point Statistical methods Site specific mixing between forecast model and real time data improves the forecast for the nearest hours Operational Forecast Phase: Wind Power forecast on given grid Real time SCADA data Mixing Function Intraday Forecast 17 PWEA 2016 Warsaw, Poland

18 AEP % Example 3 Intraday PowerForecast.There is a significant benefit of having fast real time SCADA feed to improve the 0-6 hours forecast horizon. 3 sites with stable SCADA feed 14 Benefit of Intraday Forecast on the 0-6hour horizon % improvement 43% improvement 16% improvement 18 PWEA 2016 Warsaw, Poland

19 3-5 year outlook

20 Thank you for your attention Copyright Notice The documents are created by Vestas Wind Systems A/S and contain copyrighted material, trademarks, and other proprietary information. All rights reserved. No part of the documents may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means - such as graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, taping, or information storage and retrieval systems without the prior written permission of Vestas Wind Systems A/S. The use of these documents by you, or anyone else authorized by you, is prohibited unless specifically permitted by Vestas Wind Systems A/S. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice from the documents. The documents are provided as is and Vestas Wind Systems A/S shall not have any responsibility or liability whatsoever for the results of use of the documents by you.