Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa: Current Status and Future Plan. Anand Sharma Regional Coordinator/ Sc-F, Agromet Advisory Services Division
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1 Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa: Current Status and Future Plan Anand Sharma Regional Coordinator/ Sc-F, Agromet Advisory Services Division
2 Outline Weather observation network Weather forecasting Forecast Skill Agrometeorological Advisory Services Future plans
3 Weather Observation and Monitoring Automatic Rain Guages 1230 Automatic Weather Station 675 Doppler Weather RADAR Automatic Weather Station
4 Weather Forecasting Nowcast for 3 hours (Location specific) Short Range for 72 hours (Location/District/City) Medium Range for 3-10days (City/District/ Met Subdiv.) Extended range for 4 weeks (Met Subdiv./ State/ Homogeneous regions) Long range for season (Homogeneous regions/country) Early warning system on extreme events: Cyclone/ Hailstorm/Thunderstorm/Cold & Heat wave/drought
5 Met. Observatories in BIHAR
6 Services Rendered
7 Medium range Forecast Weather model: Spatial Res km Forecast for 10 days Nowcast Thunderstorm Hailstorm Squall
8 Extended Range Forecast Predicted week wise weekly rainfall Predicted week wise weekly Tmax
9 LONG RANGE FORECAST
10 Severe Weather Forecast &Warnings skills Noticeable improvements achieved in Skills of Heavy Rainfall Forecast (False Alarm Rate reduced from 46% to 11% & Probability of Detection increased from 49% to 67% from to ) Lead time of warnings increased from 3 to 5 days in respect of Rainfall, heat wave, cold wave. Introduced new Forecast bulletin Terminology Target for 2019 : Improvement of accuracy and skill by 20% up to 7 days
11 RECENT EXTREME EVENTS FORECASTED IN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
12 CONT
13 District Level Agro-Met Advisory Service System Agro-climate level agro-met data IMD 130 AG.MET. FIELD UNITS PREPARATION OF DISTRICT WISE MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECAST BY STATE MET CENTRE PREPARATION OF DISTRICT SPECIFIC AGRO-ADVISORIES FOR CONCERNED AGRO-CLIMATIC Feedback analysis District-wise Agro-met data DISTRICT LEVEL AGENCIES (DAO/KVK/ATMA/NGOs) FARMERS (THROUGH MEDIA AGENCIES, IT SERVICE, PERSONAL CONTACT) DISSEMINATION OF DISTRICT LEVEL AGRO-ADVISORIES
14 Multichannel Dissemination Forecast from IMD, New Delhi State Met Centres Agromet Advisory Bulletin by AMFUs Website SMS on mobile Personal Contact State Agril. Dept. Krishi Vigyan Kendra Television Radio Mausam Khabar Kisan Samachar Farmer Farmers feedback Through mobile News Papers
15
16 Sample of SMS SNo: Advs Date:- Jan :53:06:183AM Total Farmer: ( ) Level:District क श त र म आग म ५ ददन तक म सम श ष क रहन,अधध. त ऩम न २३-२५ व न य न. त ऩम न ७-१० ड स. व ऩछ आ हव चऱन क अन म न ह द र स ब ई गई आऱ म ऩछ त झ ऱस स बच व ह त म क ज ब २ ग र म/ऱ 0 ऩ न क छछड़क व कर. म सम अगव नऩ र SNo: Advs Date:- Nov :30:44:020PM Total Farmer: ( ) Level:District ४-८ नवम बर क अवध म उतर बबह र म आसम न म हल क ब दऱ द ख ज सकत ह तथ इस द र न म सम स स क रहन क अन म न ह, ककस न भ ई ध न क कट ई प र धथमकत स कर त कक समय स ग ह क ब आई ह सक.म सम ऩ स
17 Sample Bulletin
18 Cont...
19 Cont...
20 Outreach and Dissemination Activities Field Visit Farmers Awareness Programme Kisan Mela
21 Economic Impact Assessment of AAS Survey conducted by National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in % of farmers experience improved reliability Incremental profit assessed to be 25% of net income. 24% farmers have access to AAS. Annual Economic Profit on 4-principal crops (wheat, paddy, sugarcane and cotton), assesed as Rs. 38,463 crs in 2010 which raised to Rs. 42,000 crs in Service has the potential of generating net economic benefit up to Rs. 3.3 lakh crores on the 22-principal crops when AAS is utilized by 95.4 million farming households.
22 Shortfalls District level observation District/ Block level forecast Outreach through SMS
23 Future Plan Strengthening weather observation Weather forecast up to Block level Expansion of AAS network at District level to support block level advisory (District Agromet Field Unit) Year Cumulative No. of DAMU DAMUs are proposed in Bihar in first phase of 200 DAMU during April-Sept, Automation of Agromet Advisory
24 List of Proposed DAMU in Bihar: S No. Proposed DAMU 1 Nalanda 2 Rohtas 3 Saran 4 Buxar 5 East Champaran 6 Gaya 7 Purnea 8 Aurangabad 9 Kishanganj S No. Proposed DAMU 10 Gopalganj 11 West Champaran 12 Madhubani 13 Banka 14 Munger 15 Nawadah 16 Jamui 17 Araria
25 Automation of Agromet Advisory System Overview Observed Weather Data WRF Model Forecast 3 days lead time (3 x 3 km) GFS Model Forecast 4-10 days lead time (12.5 x 12.5 km) IMD Agromet Decision Support system Short SMS based on 5 days forecast information 10 Day Agro-met bulletin Agriculture Information: District wise Major Crop and Cultivar information Dynamic crop weather Calendar Crop health and Soil wetness Crowd sourcing through network
26 Required Agriculture Information Static District shape file (NWP Div.) Crops & cropping pattern (predominantly irrigated/ rainfed at dist. level) (DES, State govt.) Major crops & cultivars- - Cultivar information (CRIDA, SAU), -Crop Weather Calendar (CWC) (CRIDA) Crop duration grouped into pentad and link with CWC Soil moisture thresholds for sowing (SAU) Online crop contingency plan- district level (CRIDA) Normal onset date- district level (Climate Div.) Dynamic Rainfall onset (date & amount) combined with forecast weather Compare with normal onset (to activate contingency action) Soil wetness (Agrimet Pune) (combined with rainfall to help irrigation schedule) Crop health- NDVI based (Agrimet Pune)
27 Role of State Dept. Of Agriculture DAO as Member of Expert Panel in Advisory generation at AMFU/ DAMU To enhance dissemination of agromet advisory through SMS and Extension system of State Govt. Awareness and feedback CWWG meeting at State level Sharing database of registered farmers with IMD
28 Thank You.
भ रत सरक र GOVERNMENT OF INDIA. Precipitation/TS Forecast For Districts of BIHAR भ रत म सम वज ञ न वभ ग
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