NATALIA CHUBAROVA(1), ANNA PASTUKHOVA(1), EKATERINA ZHDANOVA(1), ALEXEI POLIUKHOV(1), SERGEI SMYSHLYAEV(2), VENER GALIN(3)

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1 UV IRRADIANCE CHANGES ACCORDING TO INM-RHMU CHEMICAL-CLIMATE MODEL, SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS, AND RE- ANALYSIS DATA OVER NORTHERN EURASIA FOR THE PERIOD. NATALIA CHUBAROVA(1), ANNA PASTUKHOVA(1), EKATERINA ZHDANOVA(1), ALEXEI POLIUKHOV(1), SERGEI SMYSHLYAEV(2), VENER GALIN(3) 1 - Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, , Lenin Hills, Moscow, Russia 2 - Russian State Hydrometeorological University (RSHU), Maloohtinsky prospect, 98, Sankt-Petersburg, Russia 3- Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Russian Academy of Science, Gubkin str., 8, Moscow, , Russia UV Monitoring in the European Countries - Past, Present and Future September 2018, Vienna, Austria

2 OUTLINE: 1. UV EFFECTS ON BIOSPHERE AND HUMAN HEALTH 2. DATA AND METHODS 3. RESULTS: Climatologies and Qery trends according to CCM model, ERA_INTERIM and satellite data. Qery trends verifications using long-term Moscow UV dataset Estimation of similarity in Qery trend areas location according to different datasets UV resources change from 1979 to 2015 in Eurasia. 4. CONCLUSIONS

3 NEGATIVE UV EFFECTS: For the period Melanoma SC the Skin Cancer rate is +1.6% per decade in Russia THE STATISTICS OF CANCER TUMORS IN RUSSIA AND THE CIS COUNTRIES In 2012, Eds. M.Davidov, E.Axcel., 2012

4 POSITIVE UV ACTION: VITAMIN D SYNTHESIS Active form of vitamin D prevents: 1. ricket 2. osteoporosis and bone fractures 3. activation of immune effects 4. reduce the risk of internal cancers, multiple sklerosis, etc.

5 CLASSIFICATION OF UV RESOURCES Chubarova, Zhdanova, Photochemistry and Photobiology, 2013

6 UV RESOURCES EVALUATION THE ASSESSMENT SIMULTANEOUSLY BOTH DETRIMENTAL AND POSITIVE HEALTH EFFECTS USING THE FOLLOWING THRESHOLDS. Threshold for erythema minimal erythemal dose Threshold for vitamin D- minimum vitamin D dose MED j = t MvitDD MED j Qλ Fery λdλdt = j 0 λ λ 2 1 = MED j E T vitd vitd _ MED t S MEDj 0 Q ery dt where S - is open body fraction, T vitd =1000 IU is the threshold for vitamin D formation (upd. CIE, 2006), E vitd_med = IU is the equivalent of vitamin D formation due to obtaining of minimal erythema dose (MED), j relates to different skin types. Chubarova, Zhdanova, Photochemistry and Photobiology, 2013

7 CHEMISTRY CLIMATE MODEL(CCM) DESCRIPTION INM-RSHU CCM, 0-90km, 4x5 degree grid step (Galin, Smyshlyev, Volodin, 2007) GCM - INM RAS RSHU Chemical block (74 gas species, 174 chemical reaction 46 reaction of photodissociation) INM model is participated in all IPCC report model evaluations of climate change (IPCC2013). INM-RSHU 3D model has been used for Ozone Assessment 2007 Report (Smyshlyaev et al., JGR, 1998, Galin, Smyshlyaev 2007 )

8 INPUT DATASET TO INM-RSHU CCM WERE SPECIFIED ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING SOURCES OVER THE PERIOD: Emissions of the ozone depleting substances (WMO, 2005, 2011) Solar activity (DeWolfe et al., 2010) Stratospheric aerosol (Thomason et al., 2006) SST and ice coverage: MetOffice (Rayner et al., 2003) ERA-Interim (Dee et al., 2011) SOCOL SST (Stenke, et al., 2013) Greenhouse gases scenarios: A2 with A1B - for CH 4.

9 METHOD FOR THE UV TREND EVALUATION INM-RSHU CCM, and ERA-INTERIM Re-analysis datasets over period Vertical profiles or Total ozone amount Global shortwave irradiance(qir) in clear-sky (Qclear) and cloudy conditions (Qcloud), surface albedo data Deviations of erythemal irradiance (Qery) due to ozone variation( X) by RAFmethod [Chubarova et al., 2016]: QQQQQQQQ~XX RRRRRR(hssssss) Cloud transmittance and its spectral correction according to [Chubarova et al.,2017]: CQ=Q/Q(clear), CQery=f(CQir(hsun)) Deviations of erythemal irradiance due to cloudiness Linear trends of erythemal irradiance due to ozone and clouds

10 Satellite UV retrievals with modified aerosol correction CORRECTION OF TOMS AND OMI DATA The erythemal irradiance data of the satellite instruments TOMS and OMI were corrected on absorbing aerosol to obtain a homogeneous series from updated Macv2 dataset (S. Kinne, personal communication). τ ext (λ) aerosol optical thickness; ω(λ) single scattering albedo; λ wavelength. CF = Qery Qery correct base ( Krotkov et al., 1998) = τ abs Qery(base) standard UV value; Qery(corrected) corrected UV value; CF correction factor.

11 Relative and absolute difference between UV indices with standard OMI correction and with the application of the updated Macv2 aerosol climatology. July. Relative,% Absolute

12 Jan Annual ozone climatology according to different datasets. INM-RSHU model ERA-INTERIM Satellite data (TOMS, OMI from the Bodeker archive updated from Giovanni site) ) April July October Year

13 Annual Qery trends (% per 10 years) due to ozone according to different scenarios in INM-RSHU CCM Anthropogenic effect Ozone factor: Stratospheric aerosol effect Solar activity SST effect (MetOffice dataset) All factors together % per 10 years By hatching statistically significant Qery trends are shown at alfa=0.05.

14 Ozone factor: Q ery trends due to ozone changes over period according to CCM, ERA-INTERIM and Satellite data Jan April July October Year

15 Cloud factor: ANNUAL CLOUD UV MODIFICATION FACTOR CLIMATOLOGY ACCORDING TO SATELLITE, ERA- INTERIM RE-ANALYSIS AND INM-RSHU CCM DATA FOR PERIOD Model data ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis Satellite Data [Zhdanova, Chubarovа et al., 2013]

16 Qery trends due to cloudiness from the INM_RSHU and ERA-INTERIM datasets Jan April July Oct

17 Annual trends of erythemal irradiance due to cloudiness according to INM-RSHU CCM dataset for period Hatching shows trends with a significance at alfa=0.05 %/10 years Interannual variability of the cloud transmittance of the UV radiation based on the data of the reconstruction model and INM-RSHU model over Moscow CQ UV reconstruction model INM-RSHU model

18 Erythemal irradiance trends due to ozone and cloudiness according to INM-RSHU CCM

19 VERIFICATION: Q ERY TRENDS OVER MOSCOW DUE TO OZONE AND CLOUDS ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT DATASETS a Correlation matrix over Observations INM_RSHU Reconstr ERA_INTERIM SATELLITE Observations INM_RSHU Reconstr ERA_INTERIM SATELLITE 1.0

20 Trends in Qery per decade (%/10 year) due to ozone and cloudiness over the period

21 ESTIMATION OF SIMILARITY IN QERY TREND AREAS LOCATION USING THE CRA (CONTIGUOUS RAIN AREAS) METHOD OF VERIFICATION ( Ebert, McBride, 2000) Positive trend January INM-RSHU model ERA-INTERIM April July October

22 UV resources for 1979 and 2015 and the changes in their area from 1979 to 2015 due to erythemal irradiance trends according to ERA-INTERIM data and skin type 1. Cloudy conditions. Difference =UV R (2015)-UV R(1979) Blue color means moving the areas to the north due to Qery increase, Red color opposite effect

23 CONCLUSIONS We confirmed that the reason for the positive Qery trends due to the reduction of ozone content (1-2%/10 years) over most Northern Eurasia areas is the anthropogenic halogen emissions but the influence of natural factors (especially SST) on the Qery trends can also be noticeable. The changes UV due to clouds according to ERA-INTERIM (our most reliable data) data has a significant trends of about 6-9% per decade ( both due to ozone and cloudiness) over several territories and much smaller according to the CCM model. There are significant changes of UV resources providing more favorable conditions over some areas in winter and detrimental ones with the total decrease of UV optimum conditions in spring and summer months.