Chapter 3: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change

Transcription

1 0 0 Chapter : Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change Coordinating Lead Authors: Philip D. Jones, Kevin E. Trenberth Lead Authors: Peter G. Ambenje, Roxana Bojariu, David R. Easterling, Albert M. G. Klein Tank, David E. Parker, James A. Renwick, Fatemeh Rahimzadeh, Matilde M. Rusticucci, Brian J. Soden, Pan-Mao Zhai Contributing Authors: R. Adler, L. Alexander, H. Alexandersson, R. P. Allan, M. P. Baldwin, M. Beniston, D. H. Bromwich, I. Camilloni, C. Cassou, D. R. Cayan, E. K. M. Chang, J. R. Christy, A. Dai, C. Deser, N. Dotzek, R.L. Fogt, C. K. Folland, M. Free, C. Frei, B. Gleason, J. Grieser, P. Y. Groisman, S. K. Gulev, J. W. Hurrell, S. A. Josey, P. Kallberg, G. Kiladis, R.H. Kripalani, K. E. Kunkel, C-Y. Lam, J. R. Lanzante, D. H. Levinson, B. G. Liepert, G. J. Marshall, C. A. Mears, P. W. Mote, H. Nakamura, N. Nicholls, J. R. Norris, T. Oki, P. Robinson, K. Rosenlof, F. H. Semazzi, D. J. Shea, J. M. Shepherd, T. G. Shepherd, S. C. Sherwood, A. Simmons, I. Simmonds, P. C. Siegmund, C. D. Thorncroft, P. D. Thorne, S. Uppala, R. S. Vose, B. Wang, S. G. Warren, R. Washington, M. Wheeler, B. A. Wielicki, T. Wong. Review Editors: Brian J. Hoskins, Bubu P. Jallow, Tom R. Karl Date of Draft: January 00 Notes: Figures: TSU-cleaned version. Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

2 0 Box., Figure... Composites of time-height development of the northern annular modes for (a) weak vortex events and (b) 0 strong vortex events. The events are determined by the dates on which the 0 hpa annular mode values cross.0 and +., respectively. The indices are nondimensional; the contour interval for the colour shading is 0., and 0. for the white contours. Values between 0. and 0. are unshaded. The thin horizontal lines indicate the approximate boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere. Modified from Baldwin and Dunkerton (00). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

3 Rainfall (mm) Mean maximum temperature anomaly (C) Year - Rainfall (mm) Mean maximum temperature (C) Box.., Figure... Time series of annual rainfall total (blue) and mean maximum temperature (red) averaged across Australia, 0 00 (data from Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

4 Box.., Figure... Percentage of US west of the Rocky Mountains dry (top) or wet (bottom) based on the Palmer Drought Index for classes moderate to extreme drought or wet. From NCDC/NESDIS. Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

5 JJA Tmax frequency A B C JJA Tmax [ C] Box.., Figure... Gaussian distributions fitted to the summer maximum temperature data at Basel, Switzerland, for (A) the 0 reference period; (B) the 0 00 A- scenario simulation; and (C) the 00 heat wave (Benniston, 00; Christensen et al., 00; Christensen et al., ). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

6 0 Figure... (a) Annual anomalies of global land surface air temperature, to 00, relative to to 0 ( C) from Jones and Moberg (00). The smooth curves were created using a -point binomial filter to give near-decadal averages. (b) The thick solid curve from (a) is compared with a corresponding smoothed curve based on the NCDC (Reynolds and Smith, 00) series. [Add GISS analysis.] The shaded band (missing) represents uncertainties in the Jones and Moberg (00) analysis estimated using an optimum averaging method (Folland et al., 00) and includes uncertainties arising from urbanization but not uncertainties arising from thermometer exposures. Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

7 Figure... Annual trends in maximum temperature, minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range for global land areas. From Vose et al. (00). Do Not Cite or Quote -0 Total pages:

8 0 Figure... Anomaly time series of the full USHCN data (black) and the USHCN data without the % of the stations with populations of over 0,000 within km in the year 000 (grey). The full data set values minus the set without the most urban stations are shown with a dashed line. Clearly the warming in recent years is not caused by increasing urban heat island effects at the most urban stations. Figure is from Peterson and Owen (00). [The grey line is only really visible on a screen.] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

9 0 Figure... (a) Annual anomalies of global SST (bars and solid curve) and global night marine air temperature (NMAT, dotted curve), to 00, relative to to 0 ( C) from UKMO (Rayner et al., 00)). The smooth curves were created using a -point binomial filter to give near-decadal averages. The dashed curve shows equivalent smoothed SST anomalies from the TAR. (b) Smoothed annual global SST to 00, relative to to 0 ( C), from UKMO (thick line as in (a), Rayner et al. (00) and from Reynolds et al. (00) (thin solid line, includes satellite data). to 0 ( C), from UKMO (thick line as in (a), Rayner et al. (00), thin solid line is Reynolds et al. (00) including satellite data and from Japan [(Ishii et al., 00) to be provided, dashed line. Figure not yet complete, current version comes from the TAR!] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

10 0 Figure... (Continued). (c, d). As (a) but for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and showing only the Rayner et al. (00) series. To be updated from Figure.c, d of TAR. Add best Reynolds version of SST. [The diagrams reproduced here are from the TAR!] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

11 0 Figure... (Continued). (e). Annual anomalies of SST in the extratropical North Atlantic north of N, 0 00, relative to to 0 ( C), based on Rayner et al. (00). [Add best Reynolds version of SST.] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

12 Figure... Global and hemispheric series of combined SST and land surface air temperature from the CRU-UKMO analysis (Parker et al., 00). Annual error bars were estimated as in Folland et al. (00) and the TAR. The smooth curves were created using a -point binomial filter giving near-decadal averages. Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

13 0 Figure... Smoothed annual anomalies of global average sea surface temperature (blue curve), night marine air temperature (green curve) and land surface air temperature (red curve) to 00, relative to to 0 ( C) (Rayner et al., 00; Jones and Moberg, 00). The smooth curves were created using a -point binomial filter to give near-decadal averages. Also shown (inset) are the smoothed differences between the land-surface air and sea surface temperature anomalies. Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

14 Figure... Trends in annual land air temperature and SST anomalies in HadCRUTv, 00. [Provided by Tom Peterson, NOAA/NCDC]. Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

15 Figure... Trend of annual temperatures for 0 00 (produced by NCDC from Smith and Reynolds (00)). Areas in white have incomplete data to produce reliable trends. [Views on projection and colour scheme appreciated.] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

16 Figure... (a b). Trend of annual and seasonal trends for 00 (from Smith and Reynolds (00)). Areas in white have incomplete data to produce reliable trends. [Views on projection and colour scheme appreciated.] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

17 Figure... (Continued). (c d). Do Not Cite or Quote -0 Total pages:

18 Figure... (Continued). (e). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

19 0 0 to 00 P =. mm P yr = 0. mm yr P per decade =. mm per decade % P per decade = 0.% per decade to 00 P =. mm P yr = 0.0 mm yr P per decade =.0 mm per decade % P per decade =.0% per decade Figure... Precipitation average for global land areas, [Will have title of Global Land Precipitation Anomalies and the information underneath the figure will be added to the caption.] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

20 Figure... Trend of annual precipitation total for (Grey areas show missing data, generally regions with incomplete records over the 0-year period). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

21 0 Figure... Trend of annual and seasonal precipitation totals for 00. (Colour schemes and shading are similar to Figure..). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

22 Figure... (Continued). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

23 Figure... (Continued). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

24 Figure... Geographic distribution of -year change in rainfall (mm day ) from the GPCP data set. Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

25 T MSU Height (km) TMSU T T Strat Corr T MSULT 0.0 Relative Weighting Function Figure... Weighting functions and global time series for the various satellite-based atmospheric temperature data records. Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

26 0 Figure... Equivalent global monthly-mean MSU bulk tropospheric T (bottom panel) and lowerstratospheric T (top panel) temperature anomalies derived from ERA-0 analyses (red) compared with actual MSU data (blue) processed by Mears et al. (00). The shaded area in the top panel is spurious and related to a problem in bias correction of radiance data from the NOAA- satellite. Adapted from Santer et al. (00). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

27 0 Figure... Global temperature variations for (a) the surface and low-mid troposphere and (b) the lower stratosphere. In (a), T LT since (Christy et al., 00; blue) is compared with radiosonde-based temperatures (Parker et al., ; red) and surface data (Jones and Moberg, 00: Jones et al, 00; black) since. In (b), T since (Spencer and Christy ; blue) is compared with radiosonde-based temperatures (Parker et al. ; red) since. Values ( C) are for -month running seasons ending September to November 00, and are expressed relative to the 000 average. The stratospheric radiosonde data are adjusted to compensate for known instrumental changes since using MSU Channel as a reference. Do Not Cite or Quote -0 Total pages:

28 0 Figure... Synthesis of tropical temperature trends since, from CCSP (00). The blue (red) circles are from the UAH (RSS) analyses of MSU retrievals. The black (purple) squares are from the HadAT (LKS) radiosonde temperature analysis. The cross represents the identical trends in the HadCRUTv, NCDC and GISS blended land surface air temperature and SST analyses. The green (orange) diamonds are based on the NCEP/NCAR (ERA-0) reanalyses. For explanation of data sources, see main text. Note that radiosonde sampling in the tropics is sparse, and surface sampling, though much better than radiosonde sampling, is incomplete. The layers Low-Trop, Mid-Trop and Low-Strat correspond to the weighting profiles of TLT, T and T respectively. Trop-UW is 0 00 hpa derived from Mid-Trop following Fu et al. (00a,b). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

29 0 Figure... Trends in monthly mean temperature anomalies. MSU-derived 0 00 hpa layer temperature trend for the globe, Northern Hemisphere (NH), Southern Hemisphere (SH) and tropics (0ºN 0ºS). The results using both UAH (version ) and RSS data sets are shown along with surface temperature trends from Jones and Moberg (00), except the surface trend for the tropical region is from the TAR. From Fu et al. (00a). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

30 0 Figure... Linear trends in precipitable water for 00 in % per decade (top) and monthly time series of anomalies over the global ocean plus linear trend (bottom), from RSS SSM/I (Trenberth et al., 00). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

31 0 Figure... Left: Annual total cloud cover from to 00 derived by gridding and area-averaging synoptic observations from over,000 weather stations and available marine reports over global (0 S N) ocean (red), land (excluding the U.S. and Canada, green), and land plus ocean (black) areas. Right: The land cloud cover shown in the left column is compared with gauge-based precipitation estimates (red) for the same land areas, with the correlation coefficient (r) shown on the top (from Dai et al., 00). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

32 0 Figure... Tropical mean (0ºS to 0ºN) TOA flux anomalies for SW, LW, and Net radiative fluxes from to. Colored lines are observations from ERBS Edition data (Wielicki et al., 00a) including spacecraft altitude and SW dome transmission corrections. The mean of AMIP climate model simulations is shown as the black dashed line, with the total range of all model anomalies in grey (Wielicki et al., 00a). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

33 0 Figure... Time series of global ocean heat storage (Willis et al., 00) and TOA global net radiation estimates from ERBS and CERES (Wielicki et al., 00a). Both time series are annual running means. ERBS samples / of the globe from ºN to ºS, while CERES is global (0ºN to 0ºS). Ocean heat storage data is adjusted to global surface area to allow direct comparison to global net radiation at TOA. Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

34 0 Figure... Height changes (in gpm) of the ERA-0 00 hpa geopotential height fields from 00 fordjf for (a) and (d) and JJA for (b) and (c), for the NH (left) and SH (right). The changes are calculated by multiplying the slope of the linear regression line at each grid point by the time interval ( years). Stippled regions indicate areas where the changes are significant at >% confidence level. From Bromwich and Fogt (00). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

35 0 Figure... Estimates of linear trends in significant wave height (cm per decade) for the regions along the major ship routes for the period (a) and for the global ocean for the period 0 00 (b). In regions where trends are significant at % level, are bounded by bold lines. In (b) trends are shown only for the locations where they are significant at the % level. Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

36 0 Figure... The PNA (top) and NAO (bottom) teleconnection patterns, shown as one-point correlation maps of 00 hpa geopotential heights for boreal winter (December February) over 00. In the top panel, the reference point is ºN, ºW, corresponding to the primary centre of action of the PNA pattern. In the lower panel, the NAO pattern is illustrated based on a reference point of ºN, 0ºW. Negative correlation coefficients are dashed, the contour increment is 0., and the zero contour has been excluded. From Hurrell et al. (00). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

37 0 Figure... Correlations with the SO index for annual (May to April) means of sea level pressure (top), seasonal anomalies for surface temperature (middle), and CMAP precipitation (bottom). The first two are for and the last. From Trenberth and Caron (000). Do Not Cite or Quote -0 Total pages:

38 Figure..x. (Caption next page) Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

39 0 Figure..x. Maps of regions of significant correlation between teleconnection indices and surface air temperature (columns and ) and precipitation (columns and ), over the period 00. Temperature data come from the ECMWF 0-year reanalysis -metre temperature field, and precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The first and third columns show correlations for December February (DJF) and the second and fourth for June August (JJA). Only regions where correlations exceed 0. (0% significance level, two-sided, assuming degrees of freedom) in magnitude are plotted. Positive correlations are stippled and negative correlations are cross-hatched. The first row is for ENSO Nino. SST anomalies, second for NAO, third for NAM, fourth for SAM and the last row is for the NPI index. [This figure is in the list of Figures, but is not directly referred to in the text. It is a first attempt to produce such a Figure.] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

40 Figure... Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) based solely on the Darwin sea level pressures starting in. [Other indices may be plotted.] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

41 (a) (b) 0 Figure... (a) Sea surface temperature pattern of the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (Power et al., b) and (b) time series of the Pacific Decadal and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillations (Folland et al, 00). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

42 0 Figure... (a, upper) Time series of sea level pressure during December March averaged over the North Pacific (0º ºN, 0ºE 0ºW) from 00 to 00 expressed as normalized departures from the long-term mean (each tick mark on the ordinate represents two standard deviations, or. hpa). This record reflects the strength of the wintertime Aleutian Low Pressure System, with positive (negative) values indicative of a weak (deep) Aleutian Low. The thin shaded curve is the raw time series and the thick curve is a low-pass filtered version using a weighted -point running mean. Values were updated and extended to earlier decades from Trenberth and Hurrell (). (b, lower) As in (a) but for SSTs averaged over the Tropical Indian Ocean (0ºS 0ºN, 0º ºE; one standard deviation equals 0. K). This record has been inverted to facilitate comparison with (a). The dashed vertical lines mark years of transition in the Aleutian Low record (,, ). From Hurrell et al. (00). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

43 Figure... PSA pattern (Mo, 000) [Check that this figure does come from that paper] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

44 0 Figure... Changes in mean winter (December March) land surface and sea surface temperatures ( 0 ºC) corresponding to a unit deviation of the NAO index over The contour increment is 0.ºC. Temperature changes >0.ºC are indicated by dark shading, and those < 0.ºC are indicated by light shading. Regions of insufficient data (e.g., over much of the Arctic) are not contoured, and the zero contour has been excluded. From Hurrell et al. (00). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

45 0 Figure... Normalized indices of the mean winter (December March) NAO constructed from sea level pressure data. In the top panel, the index is based on the difference of normalized sea level pressure between Lisbon, Portugal and Stykkisholmur/Reykjavik, Iceland from through 00. The average winter sea level pressure data at each station were normalized by division of each seasonal pressure by the long-term mean ( ) standard deviation. In the middle panel, the index is the principal component time series of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of Atlantic-sector sea level pressure. In the lower panel, the index is the principal component time series of the leading EOF of Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure. The heavy solid lines represent the indices smoothed to remove fluctuations with periods less than years. The indicated year corresponds to the January of the winter season (e.g, 0 is the winter of /0). See for updated time series. Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

46 Figure... SAM index calculated from station data (Marshall, 00), and SAM (AAO) pattern (Thompson and Wallace, 000). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

47 0 Figure..0. The regression of changes in surface temperature over the -year period ( ) corresponding to a unit change in the SAM index. Contours show the % confidence levels. From Kwok and Comiso (00b). Do Not Cite or Quote -0 Total pages:

48 0 Figure... Change in the epoch mean annual range of precipitation: post- epoch minus pre- epoch. Blue (red) colour denotes decreasing (increasing) annual rage of the monsoon rainfall. The solid black curves outline the boundaries of monsoon rainfall domains. Data used are obtained from NCEP (PREC/L) (Chen et al., 00). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

49 0 Figure... Time series of the summer mean rainfall rate at each of the monsoon region (land-based observation only) for major NH (a) and SH (b) summer monsoon rainfall regions. Data used are obtained from NCEP (PREC/L) (Chen et al., 00). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

50 Fig... Variation of East Asian summer monsoon index from 000 (from Guo et al., 00.) Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

51 0 Figure... Times series of northern Australian (north of ºS) wet-season (October April) rainfall during 00/0 to 00/00. Black curve indicated -year running mean (produced using data portal at Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

52 0 Figure... Time series of Sahel regional rainfall for April October from 0 to 00 derived from gridding station anomalies (solid line) and normalized station anomalies (short-dashed line) and then averaging them using area weighting (from Dai et al., 00a) Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

53 Figure... Map showing broad areas of increasing/decreasing extremes of daily minimum temperature since. [hopefully from Alexander et al. 00a] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

54 0 Figure... Map showing broad areas of increasing/decreasing extremes of moderate to heavy daily precipitation since. This map summarizes results by Groisman et al. (00a) as well as the results from many others (Stone et al., 000; Zhang et al., 00a; Frei and Schär, 00; Alpert et al., 00; Frich et al., 00; Sen Roy and Balling, 00; Osborn et al., 000; Tarhule and Woo, ; Suppiah and Hennessy, ; Zhai et al.,, 00). [Map will be revised when regional workshop results come in.] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

55 Figure... Number of Atlantic hurricanes (US landfalling) and tropical cyclones in other regions. [need update for above TAR figure] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

56 Figure... Seasonal values of the ACE index for the Atlantic basin. [to be updated] Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

57 0 Figure... Tropical Atlantic SST anomalies for the region 0ºN 0ºN 0ºW 0ºW taken from the GISST (up till 000) and NCEP OI (after, dotted) archives combined. The thin line depicts annual means and the heavy line is the 0-year running mean. [Should use HADISST? All Figures in this section still undecided. We have tried to get series for other regions than the N. Atlantic but have not been successful] Do Not Cite or Quote -0 Total pages:

58 Figure... Storm index for British Isles, North Sea, Norwegian Sea,. Dots are -percentiles and crosses -percentiles of standardized geostrophic winds averaged over 0 sets of triangles of stations. The smoothed curves (solid for -percentiles) are obtained by a Gaussian low pass filter (Alexandersson et al., 000). Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages:

59 0 Figure A... Precipitation measurement biases at Fairbanks, Alaska, where the relocation of the rain gauge from the ground to the roof of the building and then back to the ground in the early 0s and mid-0s. Corrected annual totals are 0 to 0% higher than measured values due to the gauge undercatch due to many factors (wind speed, gauge shielding and exposure to wind, temperature, observation routine, number of blowing snow events, etc. Do Not Cite or Quote - Total pages: