Joint Research on Risk Perception and Housing Safety

Transcription

1 Joint Research on Risk Perception and Housing Safety Dr. Gl enn Fernandez Prof. Kenji Okazaki

2 Why do (don t) people prepare for disasters? People tend to respond to risk based on their perception of that risk. Perception influences behavior or action (Mileti, 1993) Higher risk perception tend to lead to precautionary behavior (Lindell and Perry, 1993) Risk perception research can help us (1) understand how people perceive risk, (2) anticipate people s behavioral response or non-response to risk, and (3) guide risk communication (Shreve et al., 2016; Wachinger et al., 2010)

3 Risk perception research in Myanmar Whereas risk perception research started in the 1960s (Sjoberg, 2000), there is still a scarcity of risk perception research in many Asian countries, including Myanmar. Examples of previous risk perception studies conducted in Myanmar: > dengue transmission (Zaw et al., 2012) > HIV infection (Saw et al., 2013) > climate change risk (Swe et al., 2013).

4 Research Objectives YANGON: To identify socio-demographic and experiential factors influencing risk perception related to fire, earthquake, and cyclone in Pazundaung and Tamwe KATHMANDU: To investigate how risk perception and protective actions of the residents in Khokana changed after the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake COMMON TO BOTH SITES: To examine the housing safety conditions in a sample of houses in the target wards To examine how disaster preparedness actions related to housing safety are influenced by risk perception

5 Joint Research Team Members YANGON GSGES, Kyoto University Department of Civil Engineering, Yangon Technological University (YTU) Myanmar Engineering Society (MES) Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC) Pre-survey in July 2016

6 Study Locations in Yangon

7 Map of Study Locations

8 Data Gathering Pre-survey: July 2016 Full survey: October 2016 Additional data gathering: June 2017

9 Collected Data Sets Pazundaung Township Tamwe Township Risk Perception Survey House Measurement Survey 15 15

10 Respondents perceived fire risk (N=213) Statement How likely do you think a fire will happen in next 10 years? If a fire will hit this area now, how do you think it will affect your house and family? To what extent does a destructive fire affect the quality of your life? To what extent does a destructive fire brings you financial loss? How afraid are you of a destructive fire? Do you know the mitigation actions you can clearly adopt? Do you think that you are capable of controlling a destructive fire to avoid a huge loss? Scale Mean 82 (38%) 64 (30) 57 (27) 8 (4) 2 (1) (9) 58 (27) 71 (33) 57 (27) 8 (4) (5) 56 (26) 71 (33) 68 (32) 7 (3) (3) 40 (19) 80 (38) 68 (32) 18 (8) (4) 28 (13) 33 (16) 79 (37) 64 (30) (5) 72 (34) 97 (46) 18 (8) 11 (5) (6) 78 (37) 87 (41) 35 (16) 1 (0) 2.69 Notes: 5 means very unlikely, not serious at all, very unclear, or can t control at all. 1 means very likely, very serious, very clear, or can totally control Numbers in parentheses indicate percentage

11 Respondents perceived earthquake risk (N=213) Statement How likely do you think an EQ will happen in next 10 years? If an EQ will hit this area now, how do you think it will affect your house and family? To what extent does an EQ affect the quality of your life? To what extent does an EQ brings you financial loss? Scale Mean 11 (5%) 88 (41) 99 (46) 13 (6) 2 (1) (5) 53 (25) 76 (36) 64 (30) 9 (4) (4) 54 (25) 78 (37) 65 (31) 7 (3) (3) 44 (21) 80 (38) 69 (32) 13 (6) 3.18 How afraid are you of an EQ? 7 (3) 22 (10) 35 (16) 79 (37) 70 (33) 3.86 Do you know the mitigation actions you can clearly adopt? Do you think that you are capable of controlling an EQ to avoid a huge loss? 31 (15) 95 (45) 64 (30) 10 (5) 9 (4) (26) 83 (39) 51 (24) 24 (11) 2.21 Notes: 5 means very unlikely, not serious at all, very unclear, or can t control at all. 1 means very likely, very serious, very clear, or can totally control

12 Respondents perceived cyclone risk (N=213) Statement How likely do you think an cyclone will happen in next 10 years? If an cyclone will hit this area now, how do you think it will affect your house and family? To what extent does an cyclone affect the quality of your life? To what extent does an cyclone brings you financial loss? Scale Mean 13 (6%) 96 (45) 97 (46) 7 (3) (7) 68 (32) 78 (37) 47 (22) 6 (3) (4) 62 (29) 73 (34) 63 (30) 4 (2) (5) 55 (26) 76 (36) 59 (28) 11 (5) 3.02 How afraid are you of an cyclone? 11 (5) 27 (13) 37 (17) 74 (35) 64 (30) 3.72 Do you know the mitigation actions you can clearly adopt? Do you think that you are capable of controlling an cyclone to avoid a huge loss? 31 (15) 97 (46) 65 (31) 6 (3) 10 (5) (23) 85 (40) 53 (25) 27 (13) 2.28 Notes: 5 means very unlikely, not serious at all, very unclear, or can t control at all. 1 means very likely, very serious, very clear, or can totally control

13 Perceived Likelihood Very few of the survey respondents believed that a destructive fire, earthquake, or cyclone was likely to happen in the next ten years (n=213)

14 Fear or Dread Around two-thirds of the respondents are either afraid or very afraid of fire, earthquake, or cyclone (n=213)

15 Ordered Probit Regression

16 Results Different sets of factors influence the risk perception of fire, of earthquake, and of cyclone (n=213)

17 % Respondent % Respondent % Respondent Response behavior in an emergency If there will be a FIRE at this very moment, how will you keep yourself safe? Try to get out by escape route If there will be an EARTHQUAKE at this very moment, how will you keep yourself safe? Leave the house and stay in open space 62 Listen to radio and watch TV for storm advices and warning Open the window and call for help Switch off electric and gas lines and do not make any fire 45 Take cover under a sturdy desk or table and hold on Secure all doors and windows Inform the nearest fire brigade immediately Move to a safe shelter before the cyclone arrives Put out the fire with the help from neighbors and firemen. 14 Stay against an interior wall or column If there will be a CYCLONE at this very moment, how will you keep yourself safe? 61 Stay indoors and take shelter in the strongest part of the house.

18 Got basic needs Got communications Logistics/planning Checked if the house is safe Prepare your house to be safe % Respondent What preparations have you made to make your house and family safer specifically for fire/earthquake/cyclone? Fire Earthquake Cyclone Notes: Basic needs: e.g., food, water, emergency kit Communication: i.e., radio battery, mobile phone Logistics/planning: e.g., planned with family members where to meet and how to contact each other

19 % Respondent % Respondent How much can you spend to protect your HOUSE from fire/earthquake/cyclone? < 150,000 K 150,001 to 300,000 K ,001 to 500,000 K Fire Earthquake Cyclone ,001 to 1,000,000 K > 1,000,000 K How much can you spend to protect your FAMILY MEMBERS from fire/earthquake/cyclone < 150,000 K 150,001 to 300,000 K ,001 to 500,000 K Fire Earthquake Cyclone 6% increased ,001 to 1,000,000 K > 1,000,000 K

20 Next Steps Investigate the connection between risk perception and disaster preparedness. Protection Motivation Theory Information Source Cognitive Mediating Process Coping Response Verbal Persuasion Observational Learning Personality Variables Prior Experience RISK PERCEPTION Perceived probability Perceived consequence COPING APPRAISAL Perceived self-efficacy Perceived response efficacy Perceived response costs PROTECTION MOTIVATION Protective Response Non-Protective Response

21 Housing Typology Apartments Brick house Wooden house Composite house Hut

22 House Measurement Survey

23 House Drawing

24 Joint Research Team Members KATHMANDU GSGES, Kyoto University Center for Disaster Studies (CDS), Tribhuvan University National Society for Earthquake Technology Nepal (NSET) Lalitpur Metropolitan City (LMC) Joint meeting in November 2016

25 Study Site: Khokana

26 Risk Perception Before and After the 2015 Earthquake Pretest: August 2016 Full survey: November 2016 Additional fieldwork: June 2017

27 Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test Results Significant changes (p<0.05 at 95% level of confidence) perception of likelihood of earthquake knowledge of disaster mitigation actions fear of earthquake anticipated financial loss due to a destructive earthquake Next step: preparing journal article

28 Thank you very much for your attention!