Long term SOLAR ACTIVITY. Laure Lefèvre Basic SIDC series of talks Nov. 16 th /11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 1
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1 Long term SOLAR ACTIVITY Laure Lefèvre Basic SIDC series of talks Nov. 16 th /11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 1
2 SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICES? There are many indices that represent or are linked to solar activity Radio fluxes (oldest 10.7cm, 1947) Flare index (1938 and before), Xray Flux (GOES) Geomagnetism (Ap: 1932, Kp, aa: 1868, Dst: 1957, magnetic needle 1780s) Solar Magnetic field Cosmic rays cosmogenic isotopes 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 2
3 SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICES? There are many indices that represent or are linked to solar activity Coronal index (FeXIV 530,3nm, 1943) SSI/TSI (TSI since 1978), EUV flux (LYRA), Mg II, CaIIK Sunspot area (RGO, 1874) Sunspot Number (1610) 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 3
4 SUNSPOT NUMBER 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 4
5 RADIO Flux at 10.7cm 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 5
6 AA index 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 6
7 Different inidces 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 7
8 DIRECT/INDIRECT? Direct measurements : satellite data : TSI, SSI, CME, SEPs Sunspot Number, Group Number, sunspot area Coronal index, solar eruptions, flare index Indirect measurements: Geomagnetic data Number of aurorae Cosmogenic isotope data 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 8
9 INDIRECT MEASUREMENT: EXAMPLE Cosmic rays (from outside of the solar system) arriving on Earth are modulated by Solar activity (open solar magnetic field) Cosmogenic isotopes are stored in natural archives ( 10 Be in ice cores, 14 C in tree rings). 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 9
10 INDIRECT MEASUREMENTs: EXAMPLES McCracken /11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 10
11 Cosmogenic isotope DATA 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 11
12 Cosmogenic isotope DATA SMF Muscheler (2016) TI 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 12
13 Cosmogenic isotope DATA Muscheler (2016) TI 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 13
14 Cosmogenic isotope DATA Muscheler (2016) TI 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 14
15 A DIRECT MEASUREMENT: The (SILSO) SUNSPOT NUMBER W=10xg + s 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 15
16 WHY SUNSPOTS? What are they? Caused by solar magnetic field Number of spots on the sun index of solar activity Cf. First two basic seminars by F. Clette 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 16
17 WHY SUNSPOTS? What are they? Caused by solar magnetic field Number of spots on the sun index of solar activity Cf. First two basic seminars by F. Clette 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 17
18 WHY SUNSPOTS? What are they? Caused by solar magnetic field Number of spots on the sun index of solar activity Cf. First two basic seminars by F. Clette 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 18
19 Photospheric indices: R G, R A, R Boulder, Area, Mx, F 10.7cm High linear correlations (R>95%) Chromospheric and mixed indices: TSI, CaII-K, MgII Sunspot Number vs other indices Quantitative index: Total toroidal magnetic flux emergence rate Bremmstrahlung : sunspots Gyro-resonance Plages From T. Dudok de Wit, SSN2 Workshop, Brussels /08/2014 COSPAR MOSCOW
20 Photospheric indices: R G, R A, R Boulder, Area, Mx, F 10.7cm High linear correlations (R>95%) Chromospheric and mixed indices: TSI, CaII-K, MgII Sunspot Number vs other indices Quantitative index: Total toroidal magnetic flux emergence rate Bremmstrahlung : sunspots Gyro-resonance Plages From T. Dudok de Wit, SSN2 Workshop, Brussels /08/2014 COSPAR MOSCOW
21 Hathaway (2010) : data -> /11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 21
22 TSI vs. SSN Composite TSI PMOD Many satellite missions from 1978 onwards Composite very hard to construct TSI models Facular brightening MgII index Sunspot darkening Sunspot positions and areas from RGO/SOON 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 22
23 TSI vs. SSN PMOD composite vs. (old) SSN Hathaway (2010) : data -> /11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 23
24 Prehistory of the Sunspot Number Sparse pre-telescopic observations: Sunspots and the 11-year solar cycle existed centuries and millenia Invention of the astronomical telescope: start of the sunspot record Galileo, Harriot, Scheiner, Fabricius 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 24
25 Prehistory of the Sunspot Number Sparse pre-telescopic observations: Sunspots and the 11-year solar cycle existed centuries and millenia Invention of the astronomical telescope: start of the sunspot record Galileo, Harriot, Scheiner, Fabricius 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 25
26 Prehistory of the Sunspot Number Sparse pre-telescopic observations: Sunspots and the 11-year solar cycle existed centuries and millenia Invention of the astronomical telescope: start of the sunspot record Galileo, Harriot, Scheiner, Fabricius 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 26
27 Prehistory of the Sunspot Number Sparse pre-telescopic observations: Sunspots and the 11-year solar cycle existed centuries and millenia Invention of the astronomical telescope: start of the sunspot record Galileo, Harriot, Scheiner, Fabricius 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 27
28 Prehistory of the Sunspot Number Sparse pre-telescopic observations: Sunspots and the 11-year solar cycle existed centuries and millenia Invention of the astronomical telescope: start of the sunspot record Galileo, Harriot, Scheiner, Fabricius 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 28
29 A brief history of the Sunspot Number: R.Wolf R. Wolf: introduction of the Wolf number [ ]: W= 10 Ng + Ns Standard Fraunhofer refractor (Zürich Observatory) D= 83mm, F= 1320mm Mag= 64x R. Wolf in 1855 ( ) 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 29
30 A brief history of the Sunspot Number: R.Wolf Reconstruction of the sunspot number from historical data: Scale based on successive primary observers Zürich primary observers: Staudach Flaugergues Schwabe Wolf Wolfer Brunner Waldmeier K.H.Schwabe Discoverer of the 11-year solar cycle 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 30
31 A brief history of the Sunspot Number: Zürich Zürich period: Continuation of Wolf s method 3 directors Prime reference = Zürich Network of collaborating stations: Scaled to Zürich: k personal coefficients Only used to fill missing days Alfred Wolfer ( ) William Brunner ( ) M. Waldmeier [ ] 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 31
32 A brief history of the Sunspot Number: Zürich Second base station [1957]: Specola Solare Locarno (Ticino, SW) Observer: S. Cortesi Still observing today: continuty with Zürich! 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 32 S. Cortesi and M. Waldmeier circa 1955
33 The GROUP NUMBER Created by Hoyt and Schatten in 1996 (H&S 1998) Dived into a lot of archives. Not the same sensitivity to higher regime than SN although group separation might be tricky around maxima 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 33
34 The GROUP NUMBER Revision of early GN and the Maunder Minimum ( ) 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 34
35 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 35
36 Overview of the Group Number corrections Revision of early GN and the Maunder Minimum ( ) Backbone reconstruction ( ) Svalgaard & Schatten 2016 Greenwich trend ( ) 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
37 Overview of the Sunspot Number corrections Schwabe - Wolf transition ( ) Waldmeier s spot weighting ( ) Locarno s variable drifts ( ) 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
38 A closer (brief) look at these transitions for SN From the most recent to the oldest Wolfer scale 0.6 disappeared The Zurich-Brussels (Locarno) transition The Waldmeier transition The Wolf-Wolfer transition The Schwabe-Wolf transition The Staudacher-Schwabe transition 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
39 The Zurich-Locarno transition (1980) Issue corrected but recomputation possible : correction applied in SNV2.0 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
40 Specola s variable drift ( ) 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
41 The Waldmeier transition (1947) Issue mostly settled : applied to SNV2.0 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
42 Using multiple solar indices Lockwood et al. (2014) 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
43 Weighting factor: direct determination Simultaneous weighted/unweighted counts (Specola station, Locarno): 215 direct double counts (M. Cagnotti, Locarno, ) 3661 Locarno drawings recounted ( , L. Svalgaard) 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
44 Weighting factor: direct determination Simultaneous weighted/unweighted counts (Specola station, Locarno): 215 direct double counts (M. Cagnotti, Locarno, ) 3661 Locarno drawings recounted ( , L. Svalgaard) Mean ratio: ~ / Inflation factor depends on the level of activity! 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
45 Synthesis of published values Comparisons with external indices Lockwood et al Rg Without SOON Rg Ag Svalgaard 2013 Clette & Lefèvre 2016 Rg & Ag (2σ) Lockwood et al fof2 Lockwood et al Rg Lockwood et al multi S2013: 1.20 L2014: ± 0.03 CL2016: ± 0.02 L FoF2: 1.12 ± 0.03 L AG: L NG, CaII, SN MWO: ± CL2016: 1.16 ± > ± 0. S2016: 1.05 > 1.20 Direct counts Clette & Lefèvre 2016 daily SN Clette & Lefèvre 2016 mean cycle Svalgaard 2017 monthly SN /07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
46 Main RESULTS of reconstructions Long term trends gone 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 46
47 Cosmogenic isotope DATA SMF Muscheler (2016) TI 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 47
48 PRESENT: The SILSO network 92 stations in 50 countries Still highly concentrated around Europe Low participation in N-America (AAVSO) 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 48
49 PRESENT: The SILSO network 92 stations in 50 countries Still highly concentrated around Europe Low participation in N-America (AAVSO) Professionnals 34% N-America S-America 5% 9% Africa 3% Amateurs 66% Asia 12% E-Europe 14% W-Europe 57% 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 49
50 FUTURE SILSO is now undergoing a lot of improvements Versioning system of SN Quality control of the whole network data being researched and implemented 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 50
51 The well-known 11 YEARS cycle The 11-year cycle is not exactly 11 years! Varies between 9 and 14 years Long term variability in the length of the Solar Cycle 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 51
52 Variability of cycle length 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 52
53 Shape of a solar cycle Asymmetry in rise and decline (Waldmeier effect) Double peaks Minima maxima Minima are not real separations between cycles, overlap between cycles (cf. Butterfly diagram) North / South asymmetry 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 53
54 Waldmeier effect Asymmetry between rise time and decline time: strongest for high-amplitude cycles 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 54
55 Double peaks Gnevishev gap (Gnevishev, 1963) There is no consensus on the origin signature of a quasi-biannual oscillation effect of the N-S phase shift in activity? Norton & Gallagher (Solar Phys. 261, 193, 2010) show that each hemisphere has its doublepeaked activity. 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 55
56 North South asymmetry N-S asymmetry / phase shift N-S coupling The two hemispheres never get out of phase by more than ~2 years (1.8 yrs, 10 mts). 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 56
57 SHAPE of a cycle 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 57
58 Longer term periodicities Gleissberg Cycle 87 years Suess Cycle (de Vries Cycle) 208 years Hallstatt cycle 2300 years 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 58
59 the Gnevyshev Ohl Effect a two-cycle variation with odd numbered cycles higher than the preceding even numbered cycles 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 59
60 the Gnevyshev Ohl Effect 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 60
61 Grand Minima MAXIMA? 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 61
62 Maunder minimum Recent studies show a few cycles 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 62
63 What is this series used for? Climate models Prediction of solar activity for everything/everyone in space (ESA,CNES ) Space weather (short term) 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 63
64 TSI vs. SSN : climate impact How does the (new) SSN influence models? 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 64
65 Can we use THESE DATA to predict the next cycles? McNish & Lincoln 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 65
66 Can we use THESE DATA to predict the next cycles? McNish & Lincoln Geomagnetic precursors (aa) Dynamo theory 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 66
67 PredictiONS FOR Cycle 24 From Pesnell, 2008 Climatology and Recent Climatology Spectral and Neural Network Precursor Physics Based From 3 rd Solar Panel predictions 2008
68 REFERENCES Topical Issue Solar Physics: Clette et al. (2016) Clette & Lefèvre (2016) Hathaway (2010) Kopp (2016) Muscheler (2016) Usoskin (2008) Vaquero (2017), Proceedings of the XII Scientific Meeting of the Spanish Astronomical Society /11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 68
69 THANK YOU 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 69
70 ADDITIONAL MATERIAL 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 70
71 INDIRECT MEASUREMENTs: EXAMPLES McCracken 2016 Signal modulated by many different parameters (has to be calibrated with SN for 400 yrs). 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 71
72 History of the Sunspot number construction Zurich primary observers Historical stations: daisy-chaining 1826: Start Scwhabe 1849: Start Wolf 1861: First auxiliary observers 1865: First assistants in Zurich 1867: End Schwabe 1877: Start Wolfer 1893 End Wolf 1947: Start sunspot weighting 1981: Zurich to Locarno, SILSO network Schwabe k= Wolf k = Wolfer - Cortesi k = 1 Zurich assistants k = 1 Auxiliary stations yearly/monthly k scaling /11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 72 SILSO network
73 Sunspot Number vs other indices Very high correlation with photospheric parameters (R 2 >0.95): R G, R A, R Boulder, Area, Mx (Bachmann et al. 2004, Rybansky et al. 2005, Wilson and Hathaway 2006, Tapping et al. 2007, Bertello et al. 2010, Hempelmann and Weber 2012) Measure of the global emergence rate of (toroidal) magnetic flux (Petrovay 2010, Stenflo 2012) Mean mag. flux Sunspot Nb. Stenflo, 2012 Chromospheric and mixed indices (TSI, CaII-K, MgII): Good but lower correlations: Non-linear relation Time lags (magn. flux dispersion) Solanki & Fligge /11/2014 ESWW11 Nov
74 TSI vs. SSN How does the (new) SSN influence models? 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 74
75 Numbering of cycles Following Wolf's numbering scheme, the cycle is traditionally numbered "1". Wolf created a standard sunspot number index, the Wolf index, which continues to be used today. 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 75
76 16/11/2017 Basic SIDC seminar 76 Vaquero (2017)
77 The Wolf-Wolfer transition ( ) Still at the analysis stage 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
78 The Wolf-Wolfer transition ( ) Unique interval in the SN series: SN number is the average between two observers (Wolf+Wolfer) Critical double transition: From Wolf 40mm portable refractor to Wolfer with 82mm refractor New counting rules: small spots, multiple umbrae Daisy-chaining k coefficient 0.6 between Wolf series ( ) and modern series (1883-now) Trend over : Wolfer gaining experience (counting progressively more spots) Mix with other assistants (mutual influence?) gives a correction factor of about 0.55 (< 0.6) Should the Wolf series before 1876 be raised by 10%? Wolfer /07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
79 The Schwabe-Wolf transition ( ) Applied in SNV2.0 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
80 The Schwabe-Wolf transition ( ) Comparison with the original Group Number (Hoyt & Schatten 1998): 14% upward jump in 1864 Drift after 1880 (cf. RGO trend in Hoyt& Schatten GN) Schwabe scale lower before 1840 Early values 10% too low versus scale after Comparison with the Group Number over a wider time interval (Backbone GN, Svalgaard & Schatten 2016) 14% upward jump in 1864 Schwabe scale lower before 1840 Early values at same level as after No robust indication that the pre scale is grossly wrong relative to post-1865 numbers 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
81 The Staudacher Schwabe transition ( ) Work in progress 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
82 Early data and the Staudacher- Schwabe transition Illarionov & Arlt, SC6, Levi 14/07/2017 VARSITI IRKUTSK July
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